"There are many fevers": Communities' perception and management of Febrile illness and its relationship with human animal interactions in South-Western Uganda.

Diagnosing the causative agent of febrile illness in resource-limited countries is a challenge in part due to lack of adequate diagnostic infrastructure to confirm cause of infection. Most febrile illnesses (>60%) are non-malarial, with a significant proportion being zoonotic and likely from animal origins. To better characterize the pathways for zoonotic disease transmission and control in vulnerable communities, adequate information on the communities' experiences and lexicon describing fever, and their understanding and perceptions of risk pathways is required. We undertook an ethnographic study to understand behaviors, exposures, and attitudes toward fever at the community level. Our hope is to better elucidate areas of priority surveillance and diagnostic investment. A focused ethnography consisting of participant observation, informal conversations, 4 barazas (community meetings), and formal ethnographic interviews (13 Focus group discussions and 17 Key informant interviews) was conducted between April and November 2015 in Kasese and Hoima Districts in Uganda. Perception of illness and associated risk factors was heavily influenced by the predominant livelihood activity of the community. The term "fever" referred to multiple temperature elevating disease processes, recognized as distinct pathological occurrences. However, malaria was the illness often cited, treated, or diagnosed both at the health facilities and through self-diagnosis and treatment. As expected, fever is as an important health challenge affecting all ages. Recognition of malarial fever was consistent with a biomedical model of disease while non-malarial fevers were interpreted mainly through ethno etiological models of explanation. These models are currently being used to inform education and prevention strategies and treatment regimens toward the goal of improving patients' outcomes and confidence in the health system. Development of treatment algorithms that consider social, cultural, and economic contexts, especially where human-animal interaction is prevalent, should factor animal exposure and zoonotic illnesses as important differentials.

Wildlife impacts and changing climate pose compounding threats to human food security.

High-level policy debates surrounding elephant management often dominate global conservation headlines, yet realities for people living with wildlife are not adequately incorporated into policymaking or evident in related discourse.1,2 Human health and livelihoods can be severely impacted by wildlife and indirectly by policy outcomes.3 In landscapes where growing human and elephant (Loxodonta spp. and Elephas maximus) populations compete over limited resources, human-elephant conflict causes crop loss, human injury and death, and retaliatory killing of wildlife.4-6 Across Africa, these problems may be increasingly compounded by climate change, which intensifies resource competition and food insecurity.6-9 Here, we examine how human-wildlife impacts interact with climate change and household food insecurity across the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, the world's largest terrestrial transboundary conservation area, spanning five African nations. We use hierarchical Bayesian statistical models to analyze multi-country household data together with longitudinal satellite-based climate measures relevant to rainfed agriculture. We find that crop depredation by wildlife, primarily elephants, impacts 58% of sampled households annually and is associated with significant increases in food insecurity. These wildlife impacts compound effects of changing climate on food insecurity, most notably observed as a 5-day shortening of the rainy season per 10 years across the data record (1981-2018). To advance sustainability goals, global conservation policy must better integrate empirical evidence on the challenges of human-wildlife coexistence into longer term strategies at transboundary scales, specifically in the context of climate change.3,9-11.

Woodlot management and livelihoods in a tropical conservation landscape.

In biodiversity hotspots, there is often tension between human needs and conservation, exacerbated when protected areas prevent access to natural resources. Forest-dependent people may compensate for exclusion by managing unprotected forests or cultivating planted woodlots. Outside Bwindi Impenetrable National Park in Uganda, household wood product needs are high and population growth puts pressure on the environment. We investigated the role of privately and collectively managed woodlots in provisioning wood products and supporting local livelihoods. We found that households relied heavily on woodlots for daily needs and as resources during time of need. We also found that locally relevant social institutions, called stretcher groups, played a role in the management of woodlots, providing shared community resources. Privately and collectively owned woodlots support local livelihoods and wood product needs in the region. Long-term management of forests in Uganda should consider the value of woodlots and the mechanisms required to support them.

Mobile phone use is associated with higher smallholder agricultural productivity in Tanzania, East Africa.

Mobile phone use is increasing in Sub-Saharan Africa, spurring a growing focus on mobile phones as tools to increase agricultural yields and incomes on smallholder farms. However, the research to date on this topic is mixed, with studies finding both positive and neutral associations between phones and yields. In this paper we examine perceptions about the impacts of mobile phones on agricultural productivity, and the relationships between mobile phone use and agricultural yield. We do so by fitting multilevel statistical models to data from farmer-phone owners (n = 179) in 4 rural communities in Tanzania, controlling for site and demographic factors. Results show a positive association between mobile phone use for agricultural activities and reported maize yields. Further, many farmers report that mobile phone use increases agricultural profits (67% of respondents) and decreases the costs (50%) and time investments (47%) of farming. Our findings suggest that there are opportunities to target policy interventions at increasing phone use for agricultural activities in ways that facilitate access to timely, actionable information to support farmer decision making.

Wildlife impacts and vulnerable livelihoods in a transfrontier conservation landscape.

Interactions between humans and wildlife resulting in negative impacts are among the most pressing conservation challenges globally. In regions of smallholder livestock and crop production, interactions with wildlife can compromise human well-being and motivate negative sentiment and retaliation toward wildlife, undermining conservation goals. Although impacts may be unavoidable when human and wildlife land use overlap, scant large-scale human data exist quantifying the direct costs of wildlife to livelihoods. In a landscape of global importance for wildlife conservation in southern Africa, we quantified costs for people living with wildlife through a fundamental measure of human well-being, food security, and we tested whether existing livelihood strategies buffer certain households against crop depredation by wildlife, predominantly elephants. To do this, we estimated Bayesian multilevel statistical models based on multicounty household data (n = 711) and interpreted model results in the context of spatial data from participatory land-use mapping. Reported crop depredation by wildlife was widespread. Over half of the sample households were affected and household food security was reduced significantly (odds ratio 0.37 [0.22, 0.63]). The most food insecure households relied on gathered food sources and welfare programs. In the event of crop depredation by wildlife, these 2 livelihood sources buffered or reduced harmful effects of depredation. The presence of buffering strategies suggests a targeted compensation strategy could benefit the region's most vulnerable people. Such strategies should be combined with dynamic and spatially explicit land-use planning that may reduce the frequency of negative human-wildlife impacts. Quantifying and mitigating the human costs from wildlife are necessary steps in working toward human-wildlife coexistence.

Impactos de la Fauna y Medios de Subsistencia Vulnerables en unkl Paisaje de Conservación Transfronteriza Resumen Las interacciones entre los humanos y la fauna que resultan en impactos negativos se encuentran entre los desafíos más apremiantes para la conservación a nivel mundial. En las regiones de ganaderos y agricultores minifundistas, las interacciones con la fauna pueden poner en peligro el bienestar humano y motivar sentimientos negativos y represalias hacia la fauna, lo que debilita los objetivos de conservación. Aunque los impactos pueden evitarse cuando el uso de suelo por humanos y fauna se traslapa, existen pocos datos humanos a gran escala que cuantifiquen el costo directo de la fauna para los medios de subsistencia. Cuantificamos el costo para las personas que conviven con animales silvestres en un paisaje de importancia global para la conservación de fauna en el sur de África. La cuantificación fue realizada por medio de una medida fundamental de bienestar humano y seguridad alimentaria, y probamos si las estrategias existentes de subsistencia amortiguan a ciertos hogares ante la depredación de cultivos realizada por animales silvestres, predominantemente los elefantes. Para realizar esto, estimamos algunos modelos estadísticos bayesianos de niveles múltiples basados en los datos de hogares ubicados en múltiples condados (n = 711) e interpretamos los resultados de los modelos en el contexto de los datos espaciales a partir de un mapeo participativo de uso de suelo. La depredación de cultivos por animales silvestres fue reportada de manera generalizada. Más de la mitad de los hogares en la muestra estuvieron afectados y la seguridad alimenticia de los hogares se redujo significativamente (proporción de probabilidades 0.37 [0.22, 0.63]). Los hogares con la menor seguridad alimentaria dependían de fuentes de recolección de alimentos y programas de bienestar. En el evento de la depredación por fauna de los cultivos, estas dos fuentes de subsistencia amortiguaron o redujeron los efectos dañinos de la depredación. La presencia de las estrategias de amortiguamiento sugiere que una estrategia de compensación enfocada podría beneficiar a las personas más vulnerables de la región. Dichas estrategias deberían estar combinadas con la planeación del uso de suelo dinámica y espacialmente explícita, la cual podría reducir la frecuencia de los impactos negativos entre los humanos y la fauna. La cuantificación y mitificación del costo humano a partir de la fauna son pasos necesarios en el camino hacia la coexistencia entre los humanos y la fauna.

Generation gaps in US public opinion on renewable energy and climate change.

The topics of climate change and renewable energy are often linked in policy discussions and scientific analysis, but public opinion on these topics exhibits both overlap and divergence. Although renewable energy has potentially broader acceptance than anthropogenic climate change, it can also face differently-based opposition. Analyses of US and regional surveys, including time series of repeated surveys in New Hampshire (2010-2018) and northeast Oregon (2011-2018), explore the social bases and trends of public views on both issues. Political divisions are prominent, although somewhat greater regarding climate change due to substantive differences and more partisan opposition. Regarding climate change and to a lesser extent renewable energy, political divisions tends to widen with education. There also are robust age and temporal effects: younger adults more often prioritize renewable energy development, and agree with scientists on the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Across all age groups and both regional series, support for renewable energy and recognition of ACC have been gradually rising. Contrary to widespread speculation, these trends have not visibly responded to events such as the US hurricanes of 2012, 2017 or 2018. Together with age-cohort replacement and the potential for changes in age-group voting participation, however, the gradual trends suggest that public pressure for action on these issues could grow.

Human-Wildlife Interactions Predict Febrile Illness in Park Landscapes of Western Uganda.

Fevers of unknown origin complicate treatment and prevention of infectious diseases and are a global health burden. We examined risk factors of self-reported fever-categorized as "malarial" and "nonmalarial"-in households adjacent to national parks across the Ugandan Albertine Rift, a biodiversity and emerging infectious disease hotspot. Statistical models fitted to these data suggest that perceived nonmalarial fevers of unknown origin were associated with more frequent direct contact with wildlife and with increased distance from parks where wildlife habitat is limited to small forest fragments. Perceived malarial fevers were associated with close proximity to parks but were not associated with direct wildlife contact. Self-reported fevers of any kind were not associated with livestock ownership. These results suggest a hypothesis that nonmalarial fevers in this area are associated with wildlife contact, and further investigation of zoonoses from wildlife is warranted. More generally, our findings of land use-disease relationships aid in hypothesis development for future research in this social-ecological system where emerging infectious diseases specifically, and rural public health provisioning generally, are important issues.

Changing perceptions of protected area benefits and problems around Kibale National Park, Uganda.

Local residents' changing perceptions of benefits and problems from living next to a protected area in western Uganda are assessed by comparing household survey data from 2006, 2009, and 2012. Findings are contextualized and supported by long-term data sources for tourism, protected area-based employment, tourism revenue sharing, resource access agreements, and problem animal abundance. We found decreasing perceived benefit and increasing perceived problems associated with the protected area over time, with both trends dominated by increased human-wildlife conflict due to recovering elephant numbers. Proportions of households claiming benefit from specific conservation strategies were increasing, but not enough to offset crop raiding. Ecosystem services mitigated perceptions of problems. As human and animal populations rise, wildlife authorities in Sub-Saharan Africa will be challenged to balance perceptions and adapt policies to ensure the continued existence of protected areas. Understanding the dynamic nature of local people's perceptions provides a tool to adapt protected area management plans, prioritize conservation resources, and engage local communities to support protected areas.

Flood Realities, Perceptions and the Depth of Divisions on Climate.

Research has led to broad agreement among scientists that anthropogenic climate change is happening now and likely to worsen. In contrast to scientific agreement, US public views remain deeply divided, largely along ideological lines. Science communication has been neutralised in some arenas by intense counter-messaging, but as adverse climate impacts become manifest they might intervene more persuasively in local perceptions. We look for evidence of this occurring with regard to realities and perceptions of flooding in the northeastern US state of New Hampshire. Although precipitation and flood damage have increased, with ample news coverage, most residents do not see a trend. Nor do perceptions about past and future local flooding correlate with regional impacts or vulnerability. Instead, such perceptions follow ideological patterns resembling those of global climate change. That information about the physical world can be substantially filtered by ideology is a common finding from sociological environment/society research.

Perceptions of risk in communities near parks in an African biodiversity hotspot.

Understanding conservation and livelihood threats in park landscapes is important to informing conservation policy. To identify threats, we examined perceived risks of residents living near three national parks in Uganda. We used cross-sectional household data to document, rank, and measure severity of perceived risks. Three risk categories, grouped into protected area, climate, and health, were cited by 80 % of respondents and received the highest severity scores. Elevation, proximity to the park, local forest loss, recent population change, and measures of poverty were the most important variables in predicting whether or not an individual identified these risks as the most or second most severe risk. Health issues were cited throughout the landscape, while problems attributed to climate (mainly insufficient rainfall) were reported to be most severe farther from the park. Increased population density was associated with increased perceived risk of health challenges, but decreased perceived risks attributed to the park and climate. Participatory risk mapping provides the opportunity to make standardized comparisons across sites, to help identify commonalities and differences, as a first step to examining the degree to which conservation management might address some of these local challenges and where mitigation techniques might be transferable between different sites or conflict scenarios.

Providing health care to improve community perceptions of protected areas.

Impoverished communities often turn to illegal extraction of resources from protected areas to alleviate economic pressures or to make monetary gains. Such practices can cause ecological damage and threaten animal populations. These communities also often face a high disease burden and typically do not have access to affordable health care. Here we argue that these two seemingly separate challenges may have a common solution. In particular, providing health care to communities adjacent to protected areas may be an efficient and effective way to reduce the disease burden while also improving local perceptions about protected areas, potentially reducing illegal extraction. We present a case study of a health centre on the edge of Kibale National Park, Uganda. The centre has provided care to c. 7,200 people since 2008 and its outreach programme extends to c. 4,500 schoolchildren each year. Contrasting the provision of health care to other means of improving community perceptions of protected areas suggests that health clinics have potential as a conservation tool in some situations and should be considered in future efforts to manage protected areas.

Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

Modelling associations between public understanding, engagement and forest conditions in the Inland Northwest, USA.

Opinions about public lands and the actions of private non-industrial forest owners in the western United States play important roles in forested landscape management as both public and private forests face increasing risks from large wildfires, pests and disease. This work presents the responses from two surveys, a random-sample telephone survey of more than 1500 residents and a mail survey targeting owners of parcels with 10 or more acres of forest. These surveys were conducted in three counties (Wallowa, Union, and Baker) in northeast Oregon, USA. We analyze these survey data using structural equation models in order to assess how individual characteristics and understanding of forest management issues affect perceptions about forest conditions and risks associated with declining forest health on public lands. We test whether forest understanding is informed by background, beliefs, and experiences, and whether as an intervening variable it is associated with views about forest conditions on publicly managed forests. Individual background characteristics such as age, gender and county of residence have significant direct or indirect effects on our measurement of understanding. Controlling for background factors, we found that forest owners with higher self-assessed understanding, and more education about forest management, tend to hold more pessimistic views about forest conditions. Based on our results we argue that self-assessed understanding, interest in learning, and willingness to engage in extension activities together have leverage to affect perceptions about the risks posed by declining forest conditions on public lands, influence land owner actions, and affect support for public policies. These results also have broader implications for management of forested landscapes on public and private lands amidst changing demographics in rural communities across the Inland Northwest where migration may significantly alter the composition of forest owner goals, understanding, and support for various management actions.

Use of single large or several small policies as strategies to manage people-park interactions.

Biodiversity conservation has been criticized for undermining or ignoring social well-being. Currently efforts to mutually promote social justice, rural development, and biodiversity conservation, which have been contentious and yielded mixed results, continue to spread despite a general dearth of effective management strategies. We contend that social and economic concerns should be integral to conservation planning and propose that the scale of these phenomena is also critical. To evaluate the merit of this proposal, we adopted and expanded a conservation management strategy framework developed by Joel Heinen and examined how population density, economic disparity, and ethnic heterogeneity vary spatially surrounding 2 contrasting protected areas in East Africa: Kibale National Park in Uganda and Tarangire National Park in Tanzania. Analyses of demographic, wealth, and ethnicity data from regional censuses and household surveys conducted in 2009 and 2010 indicated that choice of scale (landscape or community) changed the management strategies recommended by the model. Therefore, "several small" people-park management strategies varying around a given protected area may be more appropriate than a "single large" people-park strategy applied across an entire protected area. Correspondingly, scale adjusted Heinen recommendations offered new strategies for effective conservation management within these human landscapes not incorporated in current in situ management plans.

Implications of spatial data variations for protected areas management: an example from East Africa.

Geographic information systems and remote sensing technologies have become an important tool for visualizing conservation management and developing solutions to problems associated with conservation. When multiple organizations separately develop spatial data representations of protected areas, implicit error arises due to variation between data sets. We used boundary data produced by three conservation organizations (International Union for the Conservation of Nature, World Resource Institute, and Uganda Wildlife Authority), for seven Ugandan parks, to study variation in the size represented and the location of boundaries. We found variation in the extent of overlapping total area encompassed by the three data sources, ranging from miniscule (0.4 %) differences to quite large ones (9.0 %). To underscore how protected area boundary discrepancies may have implications to protected area management, we used a landcover classification, defining crop, shrub, forest, savanna, and grassland. The total area in the different landcover classes varied most in smaller protected areas (those less than 329 km(2)), with forest and cropland area estimates varying up to 65 %. The discrepancies introduced by boundary errors could, in this hypothetical case, generate erroneous findings and could have a significant impact on conservation, such as local-scale management for encroachment and larger-scale assessments of deforestation.

Spatially explicit data: stewardship and ethical challenges in science.

Scholarly communication is at an unprecedented turning point created in part by the increasing saliency of data stewardship and data sharing. Formal data management plans represent a new emphasis in research, enabling access to data at higher volumes and more quickly, and the potential for replication and augmentation of existing research. Data sharing has recently transformed the practice, scope, content, and applicability of research in several disciplines, in particular in relation to spatially specific data. This lends exciting potentiality, but the most effective ways in which to implement such changes, particularly for disciplines involving human subjects and other sensitive information, demand consideration. Data management plans, stewardship, and sharing, impart distinctive technical, sociological, and ethical challenges that remain to be adequately identified and remedied. Here, we consider these and propose potential solutions for their amelioration.

Patterns and perceptions of climate change in a biodiversity conservation hotspot.

Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management.

An integrated approach to modeling resource utilization for rural communities in developing countries.

Resource consumption in developing countries has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. What has been understudied however, has been the feedback affects of resource consumption on resource availability to both households and communities. Heavy reliance on natural resources and intensive smallholder agriculture common to many rural communities in developing countries has forced people to fulfill short-term needs to the detriment of long-term ecological and livelihood sustainability. This paper introduces a conceptual framework to examine how individuals and households fulfill daily caloric needs and the aggregate effects on resource availability and consumption. Data were collected from a large number of published case studies of rural land-use dynamics, growth and yield models, and human livelihoods were reviewed from scientific journals, reports published by NGOs, and government reports. Using inputs defined by the user, the model tracks annual fuelwood and agricultural land use based on meeting individual energy demands. A case-study-based analysis was patterned after smallholder agriculturalists at the family and community level. Three scenarios are presented in this paper using data from Uganda to illustrate the application of this model.