Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Trust in governments, public health institutions, and other information sources as determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake behavior in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: Trust in governments and public institutions as a determinant of public health outcomes has gained increased attention since the COVID-19 pandemic. Provided historically low confidence in vaccines in Japan, investigating the role of trust in information sources and actual COVID-19 vaccination uptake behavior will be invaluable for future vaccine promotion policymaking. Therefore, the objective of this study was to elucidate the determinants of COVID-19 vaccination uptake and evaluate the relationship between trust in different information sources and COVID-19 vaccination behavior in Japan. METHODS: For this study, we leveraged a longitudinal series of web-based surveys of 19,174 individuals in Japan conducted between 2021 and 2022 which asked questions regarding a wide range of sociodemographic and psychographic characteristics related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Determinant analysis for vaccination (at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine) was conducted via multiple logistic regression, and odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. RESULTS: After adjustment for sociodemographic determinants of vaccine uptake, aggregate trust in the systems and institutions of vaccine approval (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.30-1.56), and trust in information about the COVID-19 pandemic coming from government sources (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.12-1.44) were found to be consistently powerful predictors of COVID-19 vaccination. Trust in media sources including traditional media (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.07-1.36), and the internet (OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.66-0.89) had significant and opposing effects. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the broader hypothesis that trust in governments and public health institutions remains a powerful determinant for COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Japan. We also found that vaccination decision-making is a multifactorial process that includes the synthesis of trust in public institutions and media, and its interaction with psychosocial determinants such as prosociality and health literacy. We hope to apply this study's findings towards future vaccine programs for contagious diseases.

Incidence and seasonality of Kawasaki disease in children in the Philippines, and its association with ambient air temperature.

Background: Despite an unknown cause, Kawasaki disease (KD) is currently the primary leading cause of acquired heart disease in developed countries in children and has been increasing in recent years. Research efforts have explored environmental factors related to KD, but they are still unclear especially in the tropics. We aimed to describe the incidence of KD in children, assess its seasonality, and determine its association with ambient air temperature in the National Capital Region (NCR), Philippines from January 2009 to December 2019. Methods: Monthly number of KD cases from the Philippine Pediatric Society (PPS) disease registry was collected to determine the incidence of KD. A generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression was utilized to assess the seasonality of KD and determine its association with ambient air temperature after adjusting for the relevant confounders. Results: The majority of KD cases (68.52%) occurred in children less than five years old, with incidence rates ranging from 14.98 to 23.20 cases per 100,000 population, and a male-to-female ratio of 1.43:1. Seasonal variation followed a unimodal shape with a rate ratio of 1.13 from the average, peaking in March and reaching the lowest in September. After adjusting for seasonality and long-term trend, every one-degree Celsius increase in the monthly mean temperature significantly increased the risk of developing KD by 8.28% (95% CI: 2.12%, 14.80%). Season-specific analysis revealed a positive association during the dry season (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.11), whereas no evidence of association was found during the wet season (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.27). Conclusion: We have presented the incidence of KD in the Philippines which is relatively varied from its neighboring countries. The unimodal seasonality of KD and its linear association with temperature, independent of season and secular trend, especially during dry season, may provide insights into its etiology and may support enhanced KD detection efforts in the country.

Association between ambient temperature and genitourinary emergency ambulance dispatches in Japan: A nationwide case-crossover study.

Background: Although the effects of temperature on genitourinary morbidity and mortality have been investigated in several countries, it remains largely unexplored in Japan. We investigated the association between ambient temperature and genitourinary emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) in Japan and the modifying roles of sex, age, and illness severity. Methods: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study with conditional quasi-Poisson regression to estimate the association between mean temperature and genitourinary EADs in all prefectures of Japan between 2015 and 2019. A mixed-effects meta-analysis was used to pool the association at the country level. Subgroup analyses were performed to explore differences in associations stratified by sex, age, and illness severity. Results: We found an increased risk of genitourinary EAD associated with higher temperatures. The cumulative relative risk (RR) at the 99th temperature percentile compared with that at the 1st percentile was 1.74 (95% confidence interval (CI) = [1.60, 1.89]). We observed higher heat-related RRs in males (RR = 1.89; 95% CI = [1.73, 2.07]) than females (RR = 1.56; 95% CI = [1.37, 1.76]), and in the younger (RR = 2.13; 95% CI = [1.86, 2.45]) than elderly (RR = 1.39; 95% CI = [1.22, 1.58]). We found a significant association for those with mild or moderate cases (RR = 1.77; 95% CI = [1.62, 1.93]), but not for severe or life-threatening cases (RR = 1.20; 95% CI = [0.80, 1.82]). Conclusion: Our study revealed heat effects on genitourinary EADs in Japan. Men, youth, and mild-moderate illnesses were particularly vulnerable subgroups. These findings underscore the need for preventative measures aimed at mitigating the impact of temperature on genitourinary emergencies.

Heat-related mortality and ambulance transport after a power outage in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Background: Air conditioners can prevent heat-related illness and mortality, but the increased use of air conditioners may enhance susceptibility to heat-related illnesses during large-scale power failures. Here, we examined the risks of heat-related illness ambulance transport (HIAT) and mortality associated with typhoon-related electricity reduction (ER) in the summer months in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Methods: We conducted event study analyses to compare temperature-HIAT and mortality associations before and after the power outage (July to September 2019). To better understand the role of temperature during the power outage, we then examined whether the temperature-HIAT and mortality associations were modified by different power outage levels (0%, 10%, and 20% ER). We computed the ratios of relative risks to compare the risks associated with various ER values to the risks associated without ER. Results: We analyzed the data of 14,912 HIAT cases and 74,064 deaths. Overall, 93,200 power outage cases were observed when the typhoon hit. Event study results showed that the incidence rate ratio was 2.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.42, 2.84) with effects enduring up to 6 days, and 1.11 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.22) for mortality on the first 3 days after the typhoon hit. Comparing 20% to 0% ER, the ratios of relative risks of heat exposure were 2.32 (95% CI = 1.41, 3.82) for HIAT and 0.95 (95% CI = 0.75, 1.22) for mortality. Conclusions: A 20% ER was associated with a two-fold greater risk of HIAT because of summer heat during the power outage, but there was little evidence for the association with all-cause mortality.

Association Between Ego-Resilience and Social Isolation Among Urban Older People.

Social isolation among older adults affects their physical and mental health. Ego-resilience is associated with flexible adaptation to various environments and acceptable behaviors. However, its association with social isolation among older people is unclear. Therefore, a health survey was conducted with 510 adults aged 65 years or older to assess social isolation, its associated factors, and ego resilience. The results showed that the social isolation group had a lower median ego-resiliency scale score (42.0) compared to the non-social isolation group (38.0). The social isolation group were mostly males without spouses, took time to move, had more depressive moods, and poorer subjective health status. The non-social isolated group had faster maximum walking speed. Low ego-resilience was newly identified as a factor associated with social isolation among older people, as were being male, having no spouse, and depressive symptoms. Mediation analysis revealed that ego-resilience affected social isolation and was partially mediated by depressive symptoms.

Exploring interconnections: A comprehensive multi-country analysis of climate change, energy demand, long-term care, and health of older adults.

Challenges faced by many countries are energy insecurity, climate change, and the health and long-term care of growing numbers of older people. These challenges are increasingly intersecting with rising energy prices, aging populations, and an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. This paper gives a deeper understanding of the current and predicted interconnections among these challenges through narrative-driven content and thematic analysis from workshops with a diverse group of international stakeholders from the Global North and Global South. Narratives emerged highlighting a complex nexus of interconnections and presenting critical action areas. Targeted local and global policies and interventions are needed to alleviate stress on health systems, encourage the integrated uptake of clean energy sources, and uphold social justice across all economies. Professionals can use this work to inform the design and implementation of effective interventions and increase the resilience of older adults by better preparing for systemic risks.

Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study.

BACKGROUND: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones. FINDINGS: The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario. INTERPRETATION: A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates. FUNDING: The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.

Changes in Place of Death among Patients with Dementia during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan: A Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: A key measure of the effectiveness of end-of-life care is the place of death. The COVID-19 pandemic affected end-of-life care and the circumstances of patients with dementia. METHODS: This observational, retrospective cohort study used Japanese national data to examine the numbers and locations of reported deaths among patients with dementia older than 65 years during the COVID-19 pandemic. Locations were grouped as medical institutions, nursing facilities, homes, or all the above. The quasi-Poisson regression model known as the Farrington algorithm was employed. RESULTS: Between December 30, 2019, and January 29, 2023, 279,703 patients who died of causes related to dementia were reported in Japan. A decline was seen in early 2020, followed by increased numbers of deaths in homes, medical facilities, and nursing homes beginning in October 2020, December 2020, and March 2021, respectively. In 2021, the percentage of excess deaths at home peaked at 35.2%, while in 2022, those in medical facilities and nursing homes peaked at 18.8% and 16.6%, respectively. In 2022, the percentage of excess deaths in nursing homes exceeded that of other locations. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest a change in the preferred place of death, along with pandemic-related visitation restrictions among healthcare facilities. Excess deaths also suggest strained medical resources and limited access to care. Methodological limitations include data from a limited period (2017 onwards) and post-2020 data used to estimate data after 2021, albeit with weighting. Considering these findings, physicians should reconfirm preferred places of death among older patients with dementia.

Associations between short-term exposure to ambient temperature and renal disease mortality in Japan during 1979-2019: A time-stratified case-crossover analysis.

Background: Previous studies have indicated that renal disease mortality is sensitive to ambient temperatures. However, most have been limited to the summer season with inconclusive evidence for changes in population vulnerability over time. Objective: This study aims to examine the association between short-term exposure to ambient temperatures and mortality due to renal diseases in Japan, and how this association varied over time. Methods: We conducted a two-stage, time-stratified case-crossover study from 1979 to 2019 across 47 prefectures of Japan. We obtained the data of daily mortality counts for all renal diseases, acute renal failure, and chronic renal disease. We fitted a conditional quasi-Poisson regression model with a distributed lag nonlinear model. A random-effects meta-analysis was applied to calculate national averages. We performed additional analyses by four subperiods, sex, and age groups. Results: We analyzed 997,590 renal mortality cases and observed a reversed J-shaped association. Lower temperatures were associated with increased mortality in all renal disease categories. The cumulative relative risks at 2.5th percentile compared to the minimum mortality temperature percentile were 1.34 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29, 1.40), 1.51 (95% CI = 1.33, 1.71), and 1.33 (95% CI = 1.24, 1.43) for all renal, acute renal failure, and chronic renal disease mortality, respectively. The associations were observed in individuals of both sexes and aged 65 years and above. The associations of kidney mortality with low temperature remained consistent, while the associations with high temperature were pronounced in the past, but not in recent periods. Conclusions: Protection for individuals with impaired renal function from exposure to low temperatures during cold seasons is warranted.

A comprehensive assessment of deworming coverage among pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-30.

Background: Intestinal parasitic infections pose a significant global public health issue, particularly among pregnant women, who are generally more susceptible due to their elevated need for iron and nutrients. Deworming stands as a secure and efficacious public health intervention. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a target for the national deworming coverage rate among pregnant women at 75% by 2030. Nonetheless, the existing body of evidence on deworming among pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remains limited. Methods: Based on Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data from 56 LMICs (n = 924 277) between 2000 and 2022, we used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends of deworming coverage up to 2030 and to analyse determinant factors of deworming. Results: We found that, despite progress in deworming coverage estimates for most countries, only 11 (<20%) are on track to achieve the WHO target coverage at the national level. Inequality gaps were projected to increase in most LMICs. A multilevel model showed that increased numbers of antenatal care, access to safe water, and a higher wealth index were associated with higher odds of deworming. Conclusions: The progress on deworming coverage and inequality in many countries remains insufficient for achieving the WHO target by 2030. Additional investments in the health sector towards the expansion of deworming programmes, along with integration with existing health services, are urgently required, as is the introduction of effective policies and strengthening programmes within the context of the 'Leave No One Behind' agenda.

Factors associated with barriers to healthcare access among ever-married women of reproductive age in Bangladesh: Analysis from the 2017-2018 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: Globally, women experience healthcare inequalities, which may contribute to excessive mortality rates at various stages of their lives. Though Bangladesh has achieved excellent progress in providing healthcare, the country still has some critical challenges that need immediate attention. The objective of this study is to examine the association between social determinants and barriers to accessing healthcare among ever-married women aged 15-49 in Bangladesh. METHODS: The study was conducted among 20,127 women aged 15-49, using data from the 2017-2018 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Four barriers to healthcare were considered: whether women face problems with permission, obtaining money, distance, and companionship. The multivariable logistic regression analysis was used, with a broad array of independent variables (such as age, and educational level) to identify the determinants of barriers to healthcare access. The associations were expressed as adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: More than two-thirds (66.3%) of women reported having at least one perceived barrier to accessing healthcare. Women with a higher level of education (AOR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.41-0.57), owning a mobile telephone (AOR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.73-0.84), and those in the richest wealth quintile (AOR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.38-0.52) had lower odds of having barriers to accessing healthcare. In addition, widowed (AOR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.26-1.84), divorced (AOR = 1.91, 95% CI:1.47-2.48), or separated (AOR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.46-2.69) women had higher odds of having a money barrier to accessing healthcare, than married women. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that individual-, household-, and community-level factors are associated with barriers to healthcare accessibility. To improve the state of women's health in Bangladesh, it is vital to consider these socio-economic factors and implement fundamental measures, such as supporting the national health policy, empowering women's socio-economic situation, and spreading the flexible way of healthcare access.

Fluctuating risk of acute kidney injury-related mortality for four weeks after exposure to air pollution: A multi-country time-series study in 6 countries.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported that air pollution is related to kidney diseases. However, the global evidence on the risk of death from acute kidney injury (AKI) owing to air pollution is limited. Therefore, we investigated the association between short-term exposure to air pollution-particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)-and AKI-related mortality using a multi-country dataset. METHODS: This study included 41,379 AKI-related deaths in 136 locations in six countries during 1987-2018. A novel case time-series design was applied to each air pollutant during 0-28 lag days to estimate the association between air pollution and AKI-related deaths. Moreover, we calculated AKI deaths attributable to non-compliance with the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines. RESULTS: The relative risks (95% confidence interval) of AKI-related deaths are 1.052 (1.003, 1.103), 1.022 (0.994, 1.050), and 1.022 (0.982, 1.063) for 5, 10, and 10 µg/m3 increase in lag 0-28 days of PM2.5, warm-season O3, and NO2, respectively. The lag-distributed association showed that the risk appeared immediately on the day of exposure to air pollution, gradually decreased, and then increased again reaching the peak approximately 20 days after exposure to PM2.5 and O3. We also found that 1.9%, 6.3%, and 5.2% of AKI deaths were attributed to PM2.5, warm-season O3, and NO2 concentrations above the WHO guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that public health policies to reduce air pollution may alleviate the burden of death from AKI and suggests the need to investigate the several pathways between air pollution and AKI death.

A Nationwide Comparative Analysis of Temperature-Related Mortality and Morbidity in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The impact of temperature on morbidity remains largely unknown. Moreover, extensive evidence indicates contrasting patterns between temperature-mortality and temperature-morbidity associations. A nationwide comparison of the impact of temperature on mortality and morbidity in more specific subgroups is necessary to strengthen understanding and help explore underlying mechanisms by identifying susceptible populations. OBJECTIVE: We performed this study to quantify and compare the impact of temperature on mortality and morbidity in 47 prefectures in Japan. METHODS: We applied a two-stage time-series design with distributed lag nonlinear models and mixed-effect multivariate meta-analysis to assess the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity by causes (all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory) at prefecture and country levels between 2015 and 2019. Subgroup analysis was conducted by sex, age, and regions. RESULTS: The patterns and magnitudes of temperature impacts on morbidity and mortality differed. For all-cause outcomes, cold exhibited larger effects on mortality, and heat showed larger effects on morbidity. At specific temperature percentiles, cold (first percentile) was associated with a higher relative risk (RR) of mortality [1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.39, 1.52] than morbidity (1.33; 95% CI: 1.26, 1.40), as compared to the minimum mortality/morbidity temperature. Heat (99th percentile) was associated with a higher risk of morbidity (1.30; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.33) than mortality (1.04; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06). For cause-specific diseases, mortality due to circulatory diseases was more susceptible to heat and cold than morbidity. However, for respiratory diseases, both cold and heat showed higher risks for morbidity than mortality. Subgroup analyses suggested varied associations depending on specific outcomes. DISCUSSION: Distinct patterns were observed for the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity, underlying different mechanisms of temperature on different end points, and the differences in population susceptibility are possible explanations. Future mitigation policies and preventive measures against nonoptimal temperatures should be specific to disease outcomes and targeted at susceptible populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12854.

Utilizing a novel high-resolution malaria dataset for climate-informed predictions with a deep learning transformer model.

Climatic factors influence malaria transmission via the effect on the Anopheles vector and Plasmodium parasite. Modelling and understanding the complex effects that climate has on malaria incidence can enable important early warning capabilities. Deep learning applications across fields are proving valuable, however the field of epidemiological forecasting is still in its infancy with a lack of applied deep learning studies for malaria in southern Africa which leverage quality datasets. Using a novel high resolution malaria incidence dataset containing 23 years of daily data from 1998 to 2021, a statistical model and XGBOOST machine learning model were compared to a deep learning Transformer model by assessing the accuracy of their numerical predictions. A novel loss function, used to account for the variable nature of the data yielded performance around + 20% compared to the standard MSE loss. When numerical predictions were converted to alert thresholds to mimic use in a real-world setting, the Transformer's performance of 80% according to AUROC was 20-40% higher than the statistical and XGBOOST models and it had the highest overall accuracy of 98%. The Transformer performed consistently with increased accuracy as more climate variables were used, indicating further potential for this prediction framework to predict malaria incidence at a daily level using climate data for southern Africa.

Enhancing health resilience in Japan in a changing climate.

Climate change poses significant threats to human health, propelling Japan to take decisive action through the Climate Change Adaptation Act of 2018. This Act has led to the implementation of climate change adaptation policies across various sectors, including healthcare. In this review, we synthesized existing scientific evidence on the impacts of climate change on health in Japan and outlined the adaptation strategies and measures implemented by the central and local governments. The country has prioritized tackling heat-related illness and mortality and undertaken various adaptation measures to mitigate these risks. However, it faces unique challenges due to its super-aged society. Ensuring effective and coordinated strategies to address the growing uncertainties in vulnerability to climate change and the complex intersectoral impacts of disasters remains a critical issue. To combat the additional health risks by climate change, a comprehensive approach embracing adaptation and mitigation policies in the health sector is crucial. Encouraging intersectoral communication and collaboration will be vital for developing coherent and effective strategies to safeguard public health in the face of climate change.

Sex differences in the association between smoking and central sensitization: A cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the acknowledged interconnection between smoking and pain, research on the relationship between smoking and central sensitization (CS) is scarce; this pain mechanism has attracted recent research attention. Considering potential sex differences, this cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the association between smoking and CS. METHODS: Overall, 415 adult participants from an outpatient clinic underwent evaluation. The analysis focused on determining the relationship between smoking status and CS by differentiating between sexes. Data were collected on smoking presence or absence (independent variable) and CS (dependent variable) for each sex, with age, education level, drinking history, depression, and anxiety as covariates. CS was evaluated using the Central Sensitization Inventory. Following a descriptive analysis of the study population's characteristics, logistic regression analysis was employed to assess the relationships. RESULTS: The average participant age was 42.3 years, with 59% being women. Among women, a significant association was found between smoking status and higher CS severity (AOR=3.21; 95% CI 1.29-7.99, p<0.01), after accounting for confounding variables. Conversely, no significant association was observed for men (AOR=1.50; 95% CI 0.63-3.60, p=0.36). Interaction by sex on the relationship between smoking and CS was not statistically significant (p=0.23). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests a potential association between smoking and CS in women, whereas no conclusive relationship was observed among men. These findings indicate the necessity of considering CS when examining the relationship between smoking and pain.

Net impact of air conditioning on heat-related mortality in Japanese cities.

BACKGROUND: Air conditioning (AC) presents a viable means of tackling the ill-effects of heat on human health. However, AC releases additional anthropogenic heat outdoors, and this could be detrimental to human health, especially in urban communities. This study determined the excess heat-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic heat from AC use under various projected global warming scenarios in seven Japanese cities. The overall protection from AC use was also measured. METHODS: Daily average 2-meter temperatures in the hottest month of August from 2000 to 2010 were modeled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with BEP+BEM (building effect parameterization and building energy model). Risk functions for heat-mortality associations were generated with and without AC use from a two-stage time series analysis. We coupled simulated August temperatures and heat-mortality risk functions to estimate averted deaths and unavoidable deaths from AC use. RESULTS: Anthropogenic heat from AC use slightly augmented the daily urban temperatures by 0.046 °C in Augusts of 2000-2010 and up to 0.181 °C in a future with 3 °C urban warming. This temperature rise was attributable to 3.1-3.5 % of heat-related deaths in Augusts of 2000-2010 under various urban warming scenarios. About 36-47 % of heat-related deaths could be averted by air conditioning use under various urban warming scenarios. DISCUSSION: AC has a valuable protective effect from heat despite some unavoidable mortality from anthropogenic heat release. Overall, the use of AC as a major adaptive strategy requires careful consideration.

Projections of Temperature-Related Suicide under Climate Change Scenarios in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The impact of climate change on mental health largely remains to be evaluated. Although growing evidence has reported a short-term association between suicide and temperature, future projections of temperature-attributable suicide have not been thoroughly examined. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to project the excess temperature-related suicide mortality in Japan under three climate change scenarios until the 2090s. METHODS: Daily time series of mean temperature and the number of suicide deaths in 1973-2015 were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan. A two-stage time-stratified case-crossover analysis was used to estimate the temperature-suicide association. We obtained the modeled daily temperature series using five general circulation models under three climate change scenarios from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. We projected the excess temperature-related suicide mortality until 2099 for each scenario and evaluated the net relative changes compared with the 2010s. RESULTS: During 1973-2015, there was a total of 1,049,592 suicides in Japan. Net increases in temperature-related excess suicide mortality were estimated under all scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was 1.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.6, 2.4] for the intermediate-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), 0.6% (95% eCI: 0.1, 1.6) for a low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), and 2.4% (95% eCI: 0.7, 3.9) for the extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5). The increases were greater the more extreme the scenarios were, with the highest increase under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5). DISCUSSION: This study indicates that Japan may experience a net increase in excess temperature-related suicide mortality, especially under the intermediate and extreme scenarios. The findings underscore the importance of mitigation policies. Further investigations of the future impacts of climate change on mental health including suicide are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11246.