Machine learning models predict the emergence of depression in Argentinean college students during periods of COVID-19 quarantine.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated mental health challenges, particularly depression among college students. Detecting at-risk students early is crucial but remains challenging, particularly in developing countries. Utilizing data-driven predictive models presents a viable solution to address this pressing need. Aims: 1) To develop and compare machine learning (ML) models for predicting depression in Argentinean students during the pandemic. 2) To assess the performance of classification and regression models using appropriate metrics. 3) To identify key features driving depression prediction. Methods: A longitudinal dataset (N = 1492 college students) captured T1 and T2 measurements during the Argentinean COVID-19 quarantine. ML models, including linear logistic regression classifiers/ridge regression (LogReg/RR), random forest classifiers/regressors, and support vector machines/regressors (SVM/SVR), are employed. Assessed features encompass depression and anxiety scores (at T1), mental disorder/suicidal behavior history, quarantine sub-period information, sex, and age. For classification, models' performance on test data is evaluated using Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, Balanced Accuracy, F1 score, and Brier loss. For regression, R-squared (R2), Mean Absolute Error, and Mean Squared Error are assessed. Univariate analyses are conducted to assess the predictive strength of each individual feature with respect to the target variable. The performance of multi- vs univariate models is compared using the mean AUPRC score for classifiers and the R2 score for regressors. Results: The highest performance is achieved by SVM and LogReg (e.g., AUPRC: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.81) and SVR and RR models (e.g., R2 for SVR and RR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.45, 0.64 and 0.45, 0.63, respectively). Univariate models, particularly LogReg and SVM using depression (AUPRC: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.79) or anxiety scores (AUPRC: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.78) and RR using depression scores (R2: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.57) exhibit performance levels close to those of the multivariate models, which include all features. Discussion: These findings highlight the relevance of pre-existing depression and anxiety conditions in predicting depression during quarantine, underscoring their comorbidity. ML models, particularly SVM/SVR and LogReg/RR, demonstrate potential in the timely detection of at-risk students. However, further studies are needed before clinical implementation.

Benchmarking the influence of pre-training on explanation performance in MR image classification.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are frequently and successfully used in medical prediction tasks. They are often used in combination with transfer learning, leading to improved performance when training data for the task are scarce. The resulting models are highly complex and typically do not provide any insight into their predictive mechanisms, motivating the field of "explainable" artificial intelligence (XAI). However, previous studies have rarely quantitatively evaluated the "explanation performance" of XAI methods against ground-truth data, and transfer learning and its influence on objective measures of explanation performance has not been investigated. Here, we propose a benchmark dataset that allows for quantifying explanation performance in a realistic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) classification task. We employ this benchmark to understand the influence of transfer learning on the quality of explanations. Experimental results show that popular XAI methods applied to the same underlying model differ vastly in performance, even when considering only correctly classified examples. We further observe that explanation performance strongly depends on the task used for pre-training and the number of CNN layers pre-trained. These results hold after correcting for a substantial correlation between explanation and classification performance.

Performance reserves in brain-imaging-based phenotype prediction.

This study examines the impact of sample size on predicting cognitive and mental health phenotypes from brain imaging via machine learning. Our analysis shows a 3- to 9-fold improvement in prediction performance when sample size increases from 1,000 to 1 M participants. However, despite this increase, the data suggest that prediction accuracy remains worryingly low and far from fully exploiting the predictive potential of brain imaging data. Additionally, we find that integrating multiple imaging modalities boosts prediction accuracy, often equivalent to doubling the sample size. Interestingly, the most informative imaging modality often varied with increasing sample size, emphasizing the need to consider multiple modalities. Despite significant performance reserves for phenotype prediction, achieving substantial improvements may necessitate prohibitively large sample sizes, thus casting doubt on the practical or clinical utility of machine learning in some areas of neuroimaging.

Identifying good practices for detecting inter-regional linear functional connectivity from EEG.

Aggregating voxel-level statistical dependencies between multivariate time series is an important intermediate step when characterising functional connectivity (FC) between larger brain regions. However, there are numerous ways in which voxel-level data can be aggregated into inter-regional FC, and the advantages of each of these approaches are currently unclear. In this study we generate ground-truth data and compare the performances of various pipelines that estimate directed and undirected linear phase-to-phase FC between regions. We test the ability of several existing and novel FC analysis pipelines to identify the true regions within which connectivity was simulated. We test various inverse modelling algorithms, strategies to aggregate time series within regions, and connectivity metrics. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of the number of interactions, the signal-to-noise ratio, the noise mix, the interaction time delay, and the number of active sources per region on the ability of detecting phase-to-phase FC. Throughout all simulated scenarios, lowest performance is obtained with pipelines involving the absolute value of coherency. Further, the combination of dynamic imaging of coherent sources (DICS) beamforming with directed FC metrics that aggregate information across multiple frequencies leads to unsatisfactory results. Pipelines that show promising results with our simulated pseudo-EEG data involve the following steps: (1) Source projection using the linearly-constrained minimum variance (LCMV) beamformer. (2) Principal component analysis (PCA) using the same fixed number of components within every region. (3) Calculation of the multivariate interaction measure (MIM) for every region pair to assess undirected phase-to-phase FC, or calculation of time-reversed Granger Causality (TRGC) to assess directed phase-to-phase FC. We formulate recommendations based on these results that may increase the validity of future experimental connectivity studies. We further introduce the free ROIconnect plugin for the EEGLAB toolbox that includes the recommended methods and pipelines that are presented here. We show an exemplary application of the best performing pipeline to the analysis of EEG data recorded during motor imagery.

Pallidal Recordings in Chronically Implanted Dystonic Patients: Mitigation of Tremor-Related Artifacts.

Low-frequency oscillatory patterns of pallidal local field potentials (LFPs) have been proposed as a physiomarker for dystonia and hold the promise for personalized adaptive deep brain stimulation. Head tremor, a low-frequency involuntary rhythmic movement typical of cervical dystonia, may cause movement artifacts in LFP signals, compromising the reliability of low-frequency oscillations as biomarkers for adaptive neurostimulation. We investigated chronic pallidal LFPs with the PerceptTM PC (Medtronic PLC) device in eight subjects with dystonia (five with head tremors). We applied a multiple regression approach to pallidal LFPs in patients with head tremors using kinematic information measured with an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and an electromyographic signal (EMG). With IMU regression, we found tremor contamination in all subjects, whereas EMG regression identified it in only three out of five. IMU regression was also superior to EMG regression in removing tremor-related artifacts and resulted in a significant power reduction, especially in the theta-alpha band. Pallido-muscular coherence was affected by a head tremor and disappeared after IMU regression. Our results show that the Percept PC can record low-frequency oscillations but also reveal spectral contamination due to movement artifacts. IMU regression can identify such artifact contamination and be a suitable tool for its removal.

Bayesian Adaptive Beamformer for Robust Electromagnetic Brain Imaging of Correlated Sources in High Spatial Resolution.

Reconstructing complex brain source activity at a high spatiotemporal resolution from magnetoencephalography (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG) remains a challenging problem. Adaptive beamformers are routinely deployed for this imaging domain using the sample data covariance. However adaptive beamformers have long been hindered by 1) high degree of correlation between multiple brain sources, and 2) interference and noise embedded in sensor measurements. This study develops a novel framework for minimum variance adaptive beamformers that uses a model data covariance learned from data using a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm (SBL-BF). The learned model data covariance effectively removes influence from correlated brain sources and is robust to noise and interference without the need for baseline measurements. A multiresolution framework for model data covariance computation and parallelization of the beamformer implementation enables efficient high-resolution reconstruction images. Results with both simulations and real datasets indicate that multiple highly correlated sources can be accurately reconstructed, and that interference and noise can be sufficiently suppressed. Reconstructions at 2-2.5mm resolution (  âˆ¼  150K voxels) are possible with efficient run times of 1-3 minutes. This novel adaptive beamforming algorithm significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art benchmarks. Therefore, SBL-BF provides an effective framework for efficiently reconstructing multiple correlated brain sources with high resolution and robustness to interference and noise.

Test-retest reliability of resting-state EEG in young and older adults.

The quantification of resting-state electroencephalography (EEG) is associated with a variety of measures. These include power estimates at different frequencies, microstate analysis, and frequency-resolved source power and connectivity analyses. Resting-state EEG metrics have been widely used to delineate the manifestation of cognition and to identify psychophysiological indicators of age-related cognitive decline. The reliability of the utilized metrics is a prerequisite for establishing robust brain-behavior relationships and clinically relevant indicators of cognitive decline. To date, however, test-retest reliability examination of measures derived from resting human EEG, comparing different resting-state measures between young and older participants, within the same adequately powered dataset, is lacking. The present registered report examined test-retest reliability in a sample of 95 young (age range: 20-35 years) and 93 older (age range: 60-80 years) participants. A good-to-excellent test-retest reliability was confirmed in both age groups for power estimates on both scalp and source levels as well as for the individual alpha peak power and frequency. Partial confirmation was observed for hypotheses stating good-to-excellent reliability of microstates measures and connectivity. Equal levels of reliability between the age groups were confirmed for scalp-level power estimates and partially so for source-level power and connectivity. In total, five out of the nine postulated hypotheses were empirically supported and confirmed good-to-excellent reliability of the most commonly reported resting-state EEG metrics.

Gait Event Prediction Using Surface Electromyography in Parkinsonian Patients.

Gait disturbances are common manifestations of Parkinson's disease (PD), with unmet therapeutic needs. Inertial measurement units (IMUs) are capable of monitoring gait, but they lack neurophysiological information that may be crucial for studying gait disturbances in these patients. Here, we present a machine learning approach to approximate IMU angular velocity profiles and subsequently gait events using electromyographic (EMG) channels during overground walking in patients with PD. We recorded six parkinsonian patients while they walked for at least three minutes. Patient-agnostic regression models were trained on temporally embedded EMG time series of different combinations of up to five leg muscles bilaterally (i.e., tibialis anterior, soleus, gastrocnemius medialis, gastrocnemius lateralis, and vastus lateralis). Gait events could be detected with high temporal precision (median displacement of <50 ms), low numbers of missed events (<2%), and next to no false-positive event detections (<0.1%). Swing and stance phases could thus be determined with high fidelity (median F1-score of ~0.9). Interestingly, the best performance was obtained using as few as two EMG probes placed on the left and right vastus lateralis. Our results demonstrate the practical utility of the proposed EMG-based system for gait event prediction, which allows the simultaneous acquisition of an electromyographic signal to be performed. This gait analysis approach has the potential to make additional measurement devices such as IMUs and force plates less essential, thereby reducing financial and preparation overheads and discomfort factors in gait studies.

Alterations in rhythmic and non-rhythmic resting-state EEG activity and their link to cognition in older age.

While many structural and biochemical changes in the brain have previously been associated with older age, findings concerning functional properties of neuronal networks, as reflected in their electrophysiological signatures, remain rather controversial. These discrepancies might arise due to several reasons, including diverse factors determining general spectral slowing in the alpha frequency range as well as amplitude mixing between the rhythmic and non-rhythmic parameters. We used a large dataset (N = 1703, mean age 70) to comprehensively investigate age-related alterations in multiple EEG biomarkers taking into account rhythmic and non-rhythmic activity and their individual contributions to cognitive performance. While we found strong evidence for an individual alpha peak frequency (IAF) decline in older age, we did not observe a significant relationship between theta power and age while controlling for IAF. Not only did IAF decline with age, but it was also positively associated with interference resolution in a working memory task primarily in the right and left temporal lobes suggesting its functional role in information sampling. Critically, we did not detect a significant relationship between alpha power and age when controlling for the 1/f spectral slope, while the latter one showed age-related alterations. These findings thus suggest that the entanglement of IAF slowing and power in the theta frequency range, as well as 1/f slope and alpha power measures, might explain inconsistencies reported previously in the literature. Finally, despite the absence of age-related alterations, alpha power was negatively associated with the speed of processing in the right frontal lobe while 1/f slope showed no consistent relationship to cognitive performance. Our results thus demonstrate that multiple electrophysiological features, as well as their interplay, should be considered for the comprehensive assessment of association between age, neuronal activity, and cognitive performance.

Bayesian Algorithms for Joint Estimation of Brain Activity and Noise in Electromagnetic Imaging.

Simultaneously estimating brain source activity and noise has long been a challenging task in electromagnetic brain imaging using magneto- and electroencephalography. The problem is challenging not only in terms of solving the NP-hard inverse problem of reconstructing unknown brain activity across thousands of voxels from a limited number of sensors, but also for the need to simultaneously estimate the noise and interference. We present a generative model with an augmented leadfield matrix to simultaneously estimate brain source activity and sensor noise statistics in electromagnetic brain imaging (EBI). We then derive three Bayesian inference algorithms for this generative model (expectation-maximization (EBI-EM), convex bounding (EBI-Convex) and fixed-point (EBI-Mackay)) to simultaneously estimate the hyperparameters of the prior distribution for brain source activity and sensor noise. A comprehensive performance evaluation for these three algorithms is performed. Simulations consistently show that the performance of EBI-Convex and EBI-Mackay updates is superior to that of EBI-EM. In contrast to the EBI-EM algorithm, both EBI-Convex and EBI-Mackay updates are quite robust to initialization, and are computationally efficient with fast convergence in the presence of both Gaussian and real brain noise. We also demonstrate that EBI-Convex and EBI-Mackay update algorithms can reconstruct complex brain activity with only a few trials of sensor data, and for resting-state data, achieving significant improvement in source reconstruction and noise learning for electromagnetic brain imaging.

Joint Learning of Full-structure Noise in Hierarchical Bayesian Regression Models.

We consider the reconstruction of brain activity from electroencephalography (EEG). This inverse problem can be formulated as a linear regression with independent Gaussian scale mixture priors for both the source and noise components. Crucial factors influencing the accuracy of the source estimation are not only the noise level but also its correlation structure, but existing approaches have not addressed the estimation of noise covariance matrices with full structure. To address this shortcoming, we develop hierarchical Bayesian (type-II maximum likelihood) models for observations with latent variables for source and noise, which are estimated jointly from data. As an extension to classical sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), where across-sensor observations are assumed to be independent and identically distributed, we consider Gaussian noise with full covariance structure. Using the majorization-maximization framework and Riemannian geometry, we derive an efficient algorithm for updating the noise covariance along the manifold of positive definite matrices. We demonstrate that our algorithm has guaranteed and fast convergence and validate it in simulations and with real MEG data. Our results demonstrate that the novel framework significantly improves upon state-of-the-art techniques in the real-world scenario where the noise is indeed non-diagonal and fullstructured. Our method has applications in many domains beyond biomagnetic inverse problems.

Gait Initiation Impairment in Patients with Parkinson's Disease and Freezing of Gait.

Freezing of gait (FOG) is a sudden episodic inability to produce effective stepping despite the intention to walk. It typically occurs during gait initiation (GI) or modulation and may lead to falls. We studied the anticipatory postural adjustments (imbalance, unloading, and stepping phase) at GI in 23 patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) and FOG (PDF), 20 patients with PD and no previous history of FOG (PDNF), and 23 healthy controls (HCs). Patients performed the task when off dopaminergic medications. The center of pressure (CoP) displacement and velocity during imbalance showed significant impairment in both PDNF and PDF, more prominent in the latter patients. Several measurements were specifically impaired in PDF patients, especially the CoP displacement along the anteroposterior axis during unloading. The pattern of segmental center of mass (SCoM) movements did not show differences between groups. The standing postural profile preceding GI did not correlate with outcome measurements. We have shown impaired motor programming at GI in Parkinsonian patients. The more prominent deterioration of unloading in PDF patients might suggest impaired processing and integration of somatosensory information subserving GI. The unaltered temporal movement sequencing of SCoM might indicate some compensatory cerebellar mechanisms triggering time-locked models of body mechanics in PD.

Empirical Bayesian localization of event-related time-frequency neural activity dynamics.

Accurate reconstruction of the spatio-temporal dynamics of event-related cortical oscillations across human brain regions is an important problem in functional brain imaging and human cognitive neuroscience with magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG). The problem is challenging not only in terms of localization of complex source configurations from sensor measurements with unknown noise and interference but also for reconstruction of transient event-related time-frequency dynamics of cortical oscillations. We recently proposed a robust empirical Bayesian algorithm for simultaneous reconstruction of complex brain source activity and noise covariance, in the context of evoked and resting-state data. In this paper, we expand upon this empirical Bayesian framework for optimal reconstruction of event-related time-frequency dynamics of regional cortical oscillations, referred to as time-frequency Champagne (TFC). This framework enables imaging of five-dimensional (space, time, and frequency) event-related brain activity from M/EEG data, and can be viewed as a time-frequency optimized adaptive Bayesian beamformer. We evaluate TFC in both simulations and several real datasets, with comparisons to benchmark standards - variants of time-frequency optimized adaptive beamformers (TFBF) as well as the sLORETA algorithm. In simulations, we demonstrate several advantages in estimating time-frequency cortical oscillatory dynamics compared to benchmarks. With real MEG data, we demonstrate across many datasets that the proposed approach is robust to highly correlated brain activity and low SNR data, and is able to accurately reconstruct cortical dynamics with data from just a few epochs.

A benchmark for prediction of psychiatric multimorbidity from resting EEG data in a large pediatric sample.

Psychiatric disorders are among the most common and debilitating illnesses across the lifespan and begin usually during childhood and adolescence, which emphasizes the importance of studying the developing brain. Most of the previous pediatric neuroimaging studies employed traditional univariate statistics on relatively small samples. Multivariate machine learning approaches have a great potential to overcome the limitations of these approaches. On the other hand, the vast majority of existing multivariate machine learning studies have focused on differentiating between children with an isolated psychiatric disorder and typically developing children. However, this line of research does not reflect the real-life situation as the majority of children with a clinical diagnosis have multiple psychiatric disorders (multimorbidity), and consequently, a clinician has the task to choose between different diagnoses and/or the combination of multiple diagnoses. Thus, the goal of the present benchmark is to predict psychiatric multimorbidity in children and adolescents. For this purpose, we implemented two kinds of machine learning benchmark challenges: The first challenge targets the prediction of the seven most prevalent DSM-V psychiatric diagnoses for the available data set, of which each individual can exhibit multiple ones concurrently (i.e. multi-task multi-label classification). Based on behavioral and cognitive measures, a second challenge focuses on predicting psychiatric symptom severity on a dimensional level (i.e. multiple regression task). For the present benchmark challenges, we will leverage existing and future data from the biobank of the Healthy Brain Network (HBN) initiative, which offers a unique large-sample dataset (N = 2042) that provides a wide array of different psychiatric developmental disorders and true hidden data sets. Due to limited real-world practicability and economic viability of MRI measurements, the present challenge will permit only resting state EEG data and demographic information to derive predictive models. We believe that a community driven effort to derive predictive markers from these data using advanced machine learning algorithms can help to improve the diagnosis of psychiatric developmental disorders.

Scrutinizing XAI using linear ground-truth data with suppressor variables.

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly often used to inform high-stakes decisions. As complex ML models (e.g., deep neural networks) are often considered black boxes, a wealth of procedures has been developed to shed light on their inner workings and the ways in which their predictions come about, defining the field of 'explainable AI' (XAI). Saliency methods rank input features according to some measure of 'importance'. Such methods are difficult to validate since a formal definition of feature importance is, thus far, lacking. It has been demonstrated that some saliency methods can highlight features that have no statistical association with the prediction target (suppressor variables). To avoid misinterpretations due to such behavior, we propose the actual presence of such an association as a necessary condition and objective preliminary definition for feature importance. We carefully crafted a ground-truth dataset in which all statistical dependencies are well-defined and linear, serving as a benchmark to study the problem of suppressor variables. We evaluate common explanation methods including LRP, DTD, PatternNet, PatternAttribution, LIME, Anchors, SHAP, and permutation-based methods with respect to our objective definition. We show that most of these methods are unable to distinguish important features from suppressors in this setting. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10994-022-06167-y.

Machine learning based brain signal decoding for intelligent adaptive deep brain stimulation.

Sensing enabled implantable devices and next-generation neurotechnology allow real-time adjustments of invasive neuromodulation. The identification of symptom and disease-specific biomarkers in invasive brain signal recordings has inspired the idea of demand dependent adaptive deep brain stimulation (aDBS). Expanding the clinical utility of aDBS with machine learning may hold the potential for the next breakthrough in the therapeutic success of clinical brain computer interfaces. To this end, sophisticated machine learning algorithms optimized for decoding of brain states from neural time-series must be developed. To support this venture, this review summarizes the current state of machine learning studies for invasive neurophysiology. After a brief introduction to the machine learning terminology, the transformation of brain recordings into meaningful features for decoding of symptoms and behavior is described. Commonly used machine learning models are explained and analyzed from the perspective of utility for aDBS. This is followed by a critical review on good practices for training and testing to ensure conceptual and practical generalizability for real-time adaptation in clinical settings. Finally, first studies combining machine learning with aDBS are highlighted. This review takes a glimpse into the promising future of intelligent adaptive DBS (iDBS) and concludes by identifying four key ingredients on the road for successful clinical adoption: i) multidisciplinary research teams, ii) publicly available datasets, iii) open-source algorithmic solutions and iv) strong world-wide research collaborations.

Relationship between regional white matter hyperintensities and alpha oscillations in older adults.

Aging is associated with increased white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) and with alterations of alpha oscillations (7-13 Hz). However, a crucial question remains, whether changes in alpha oscillations relate to aging per se or whether this relationship is mediated by age-related neuropathology like WMHs. Using a large cohort of cognitively healthy older adults (N = 907, 60-80 years), we assessed relative alpha power, alpha peak frequency, and long-range temporal correlations from resting-state EEG. We further associated these parameters with voxel-wise WMHs from 3T MRI. We found that a higher prevalence of WMHs in the superior and posterior corona radiata as well as in the thalamic radiation was related to elevated alpha power, with the strongest association in the bilateral occipital cortex. In contrast, we observed no significant relation of the WMHs probability with alpha peak frequency and long-range temporal correlations. Finally, higher age was associated with elevated alpha power via total WMH volume. We suggest that an elevated alpha power is a consequence of WMHs affecting a spatial organization of alpha sources.

Machine Learning for Health: Algorithm Auditing & Quality Control.

Developers proposing new machine learning for health (ML4H) tools often pledge to match or even surpass the performance of existing tools, yet the reality is usually more complicated. Reliable deployment of ML4H to the real world is challenging as examples from diabetic retinopathy or Covid-19 screening show. We envision an integrated framework of algorithm auditing and quality control that provides a path towards the effective and reliable application of ML systems in healthcare. In this editorial, we give a summary of ongoing work towards that vision and announce a call for participation to the special issue  Machine Learning for Health: Algorithm Auditing & Quality Control in this journal to advance the practice of ML4H auditing.

Predicting lethal courses in critically ill COVID-19 patients using a machine learning model trained on patients with non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia.

In a pandemic with a novel disease, disease-specific prognosis models are available only with a delay. To bridge the critical early phase, models built for similar diseases might be applied. To test the accuracy of such a knowledge transfer, we investigated how precise lethal courses in critically ill COVID-19 patients can be predicted by a model trained on critically ill non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia patients. We trained gradient boosted decision tree models on 718 (245 deceased) non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia patients to predict individual ICU mortality and applied it to 1054 (369 deceased) COVID-19 patients. Our model showed a significantly better predictive performance (AUROC 0.86 [95% CI 0.86-0.87]) than the clinical scores APACHE2 (0.63 [95% CI 0.61-0.65]), SAPS2 (0.72 [95% CI 0.71-0.74]) and SOFA (0.76 [95% CI 0.75-0.77]), the COVID-19-specific mortality prediction models of Zhou (0.76 [95% CI 0.73-0.78]) and Wang (laboratory: 0.62 [95% CI 0.59-0.65]; clinical: 0.56 [95% CI 0.55-0.58]) and the 4C COVID-19 Mortality score (0.71 [95% CI 0.70-0.72]). We conclude that lethal courses in critically ill COVID-19 patients can be predicted by a machine learning model trained on non-COVID-19 patients. Our results suggest that in a pandemic with a novel disease, prognosis models built for similar diseases can be applied, even when the diseases differ in time courses and in rates of critical and lethal courses.

Unification of sparse Bayesian learning algorithms for electromagnetic brain imaging with the majorization minimization framework.

Methods for electro- or magnetoencephalography (EEG/MEG) based brain source imaging (BSI) using sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) have been demonstrated to achieve excellent performance in situations with low numbers of distinct active sources, such as event-related designs. This paper extends the theory and practice of SBL in three important ways. First, we reformulate three existing SBL algorithms under the majorization-minimization (MM) framework. This unification perspective not only provides a useful theoretical framework for comparing different algorithms in terms of their convergence behavior, but also provides a principled recipe for constructing novel algorithms with specific properties by designing appropriate bounds of the Bayesian marginal likelihood function. Second, building on the MM principle, we propose a novel method called LowSNR-BSI that achieves favorable source reconstruction performance in low signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) settings. Third, precise knowledge of the noise level is a crucial requirement for accurate source reconstruction. Here we present a novel principled technique to accurately learn the noise variance from the data either jointly within the source reconstruction procedure or using one of two proposed cross-validation strategies. Empirically, we could show that the monotonous convergence behavior predicted from MM theory is confirmed in numerical experiments. Using simulations, we further demonstrate the advantage of LowSNR-BSI over conventional SBL in low-SNR regimes, and the advantage of learned noise levels over estimates derived from baseline data. To demonstrate the usefulness of our novel approach, we show neurophysiologically plausible source reconstructions on averaged auditory evoked potential data.