Enhanced geocoding precision for location inference of tweet text using spaCy, Nominatim and Google Maps. A comparative analysis of the influence of data selection.

Twitter location inference methods are developed with the purpose of increasing the percentage of geotagged tweets by inferring locations on a non-geotagged dataset. For validation of proposed approaches, these location inference methods are developed on a fully geotagged dataset on which the attached Global Navigation Satellite System coordinates are used as ground truth data. Whilst a substantial number of location inference methods have been developed to date, questions arise pertaining the generalizability of the developed location inference models on a non-geotagged dataset. This paper proposes a high precision location inference method for inferring tweets' point of origin based on location mentions within the tweet text. We investigate the influence of data selection by comparing the model performance on two datasets. For the first dataset, we use a proportionate sample of tweet sources of a geotagged dataset. For the second dataset, we use a modelled distribution of tweet sources following a non-geotagged dataset. Our results showed that the distribution of tweet sources influences the performance of location inference models. Using the first dataset we outweighed state-of-the-art location extraction models by inferring 61.9%, 86.1% and 92.1% of the extracted locations within 1 km, 10 km and 50 km radius values, respectively. However, using the second dataset our precision values dropped to 45.3%, 73.1% and 81.0% for the same radius values.

A Conditional GAN for Generating Time Series Data for Stress Detection in Wearable Physiological Sensor Data.

Human-centered applications using wearable sensors in combination with machine learning have received a great deal of attention in the last couple of years. At the same time, wearable sensors have also evolved and are now able to accurately measure physiological signals and are, therefore, suitable for detecting body reactions to stress. The field of machine learning, or more precisely, deep learning, has been able to produce outstanding results. However, in order to produce these good results, large amounts of labeled data are needed, which, in the context of physiological data related to stress detection, are a great challenge to collect, as they usually require costly experiments or expert knowledge. This usually results in an imbalanced and small dataset, which makes it difficult to train a deep learning algorithm. In recent studies, this problem is tackled with data augmentation via a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). Conditional GANs (cGAN) are particularly suitable for this as they provide the opportunity to feed auxiliary information such as a class label into the training process to generate labeled data. However, it has been found that during the training process of GANs, different problems usually occur, such as mode collapse or vanishing gradients. To tackle the problems mentioned above, we propose a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, combined with a Fully Convolutional Network (FCN) cGAN architecture, with an additional diversity term to generate synthetic physiological data, which are used to augment the training dataset to improve the performance of a binary classifier for stress detection. We evaluated the methodology on our collected physiological measurement dataset, and we were able to show that using the method, the performance of an LSTM and an FCN classifier could be improved. Further, we showed that the generated data could not be distinguished from the real data any longer.

Portability of semantic and spatial-temporal machine learning methods to analyse social media for near-real-time disaster monitoring.

Up-to-date information about an emergency is crucial for effective disaster management. However, severe restrictions impede the creation of spatiotemporal information by current remote sensing-based monitoring systems, especially at the beginning of a disaster. Multiple publications have shown promising results in complementing monitoring systems through spatiotemporal information extracted from social media data. However, various monitoring system criteria, such as near-real-time capabilities or applicability for different disaster types and use cases, have not yet been addressed. This paper presents an improved version of a recently proposed methodology to identify disaster-impacted areas (hot spots and cold spots) by combining semantic and geospatial machine learning methods. The process of identifying impacted areas is automated using semi-supervised topic models for various kinds of natural disasters. We validated the portability of our approach through experiments with multiple natural disasters and disaster types with differing characteristics, whereby one use case served to prove the near-real-time capability of our approach. We demonstrated the validity of the produced information by comparing the results with official authority datasets provided by the United States Geological Survey and the National Hurricane Centre. The validation shows that our approach produces reliable results that match the official authority datasets. Furthermore, the analysis result values are shown and compared to the outputs of the remote sensing-based Copernicus Emergency Management Service. The information derived from different sources can thus be considered to reliably detect disaster-impacted areas that were not detected by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, particularly in densely populated cities.

An early warning approach to monitor COVID-19 activity with multiple digital traces in near real time.

Given still-high levels of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) susceptibility and inconsistent transmission-containing strategies, outbreaks have continued to emerge across the United States. Until effective vaccines are widely deployed, curbing COVID-19 will require carefully timed nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). A COVID-19 early warning system is vital for this. Here, we evaluate digital data streams as early indicators of state-level COVID-19 activity from 1 March to 30 September 2020. We observe that increases in digital data stream activity anticipate increases in confirmed cases and deaths by 2 to 3 weeks. Confirmed cases and deaths also decrease 2 to 4 weeks after NPI implementation, as measured by anonymized, phone-derived human mobility data. We propose a means of harmonizing these data streams to identify future COVID-19 outbreaks. Our results suggest that combining disparate health and behavioral data may help identify disease activity changes weeks before observation using traditional epidemiological monitoring.

An Early Warning Approach to Monitor COVID-19 Activity with Multiple Digital Traces in Near Real-Time.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial in curbing COVID-19 in the United States (US). Consequently, relaxing NPIs through a phased re-opening of the US amid still-high levels of COVID-19 susceptibility could lead to new epidemic waves. This calls for a COVID-19 early warning system. Here we evaluate multiple digital data streams as early warning indicators of increasing or decreasing state-level US COVID-19 activity between January and June 2020. We estimate the timing of sharp changes in each data stream using a simple Bayesian model that calculates in near real-time the probability of exponential growth or decay. Analysis of COVID-19-related activity on social network microblogs, Internet searches, point-of-care medical software, and a metapopulation mechanistic model, as well as fever anomalies captured by smart thermometer networks, shows exponential growth roughly 2-3 weeks prior to comparable growth in confirmed COVID-19 cases and 3-4 weeks prior to comparable growth in COVID-19 deaths across the US over the last 6 months. We further observe exponential decay in confirmed cases and deaths 5-6 weeks after implementation of NPIs, as measured by anonymized and aggregated human mobility data from mobile phones. Finally, we propose a combined indicator for exponential growth in multiple data streams that may aid in developing an early warning system for future COVID-19 outbreaks. These efforts represent an initial exploratory framework, and both continued study of the predictive power of digital indicators as well as further development of the statistical approach are needed.

E2mC: Improving Emergency Management Service Practice through Social Media and Crowdsourcing Analysis in Near Real Time.

In the first hours of a disaster, up-to-date information about the area of interest is crucial for effective disaster management. However, due to the delay induced by collecting and analysing satellite imagery, disaster management systems like the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS) are currently not able to provide information products until up to 48-72 h after a disaster event has occurred. While satellite imagery is still a valuable source for disaster management, information products can be improved through complementing them with user-generated data like social media posts or crowdsourced data. The advantage of these new kinds of data is that they are continuously produced in a timely fashion because users actively participate throughout an event and share related information. The research project Evolution of Emergency Copernicus services (E2mC) aims to integrate these novel data into a new EMS service component called Witness, which is presented in this paper. Like this, the timeliness and accuracy of geospatial information products provided to civil protection authorities can be improved through leveraging user-generated data. This paper sketches the developed system architecture, describes applicable scenarios and presents several preliminary case studies, providing evidence that the scientific and operational goals have been achieved.