Insights into projected changes in marine heatwaves from a high-resolution ocean circulation model.

Global climate models project the intensification of marine heatwaves in coming decades due to global warming. However, the spatial resolution of these models is inadequate to resolve mesoscale processes that dominate variability in boundary current regions where societal and economic impacts of marine heatwaves are substantial. Here we compare the historical and projected changes in marine heatwaves in a 0.1° ocean model with 23 coarser-resolution climate models. Western boundary currents are the regions where the models disagree the most with observations and among themselves in simulating marine heatwaves of the past and the future. The lack of eddy-driven variability in the coarse-resolution models results in less intense marine heatwaves over the historical period and greater intensification in the coming decades. Although the projected changes agree well at the global scale, the greater spatial details around western boundary currents provided by the high-resolution model may be valuable for effective adaptation planning.

Background nutrient concentration determines phytoplankton bloom response to marine heatwaves.

Ocean temperature extreme events such as marine heatwaves are expected to intensify in coming decades due to anthropogenic global warming. Reported ecological and economic impacts of marine heatwaves include coral bleaching, local extinction of mangrove and kelp forests and elevated mortalities of invertebrates, fishes, seabirds and marine mammals. In contrast, little is known about the impacts of marine heatwaves on microbes that regulate biogeochemical processes in the ocean. Here we analyse the daily output of a near-global ocean physical-biogeochemical model simulation to characterize the impacts of marine heatwaves on phytoplankton blooms in 23 tropical and temperate oceanographic regions from 1992 to 2014. The results reveal regionally coherent anomalies of shallower surface mixing layers and lower surface nitrate concentrations during marine heatwaves. These anomalies exert counteracting effects on phytoplankton growth through light and nutrient limitation. Consequently, the responses of phytoplankton blooms are mixed, but can be related to the background nutrient conditions of the study regions. The blooms are weaker during marine heatwaves in nutrient-poor waters, whereas in nutrient-rich waters, the heatwave blooms are stronger. The corresponding analyses of sea-surface temperature, chlorophyll a and nitrate based on satellite observations and in situ climatology support this relationship between phytoplankton bloom anomalies and background nitrate concentration. Given that nutrient-poor waters are projected to expand globally in the 21st century, this study suggests increased occurrence of weaker blooms during marine heatwaves in coming decades, with implications for higher trophic levels and biogeochemical cycling of key elements.