Investigating the association between genetically proxied circulating levels of immune checkpoint proteins and cancer survival: protocol for a Mendelian randomisation analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Compared with the traditional drug development pathway, investigating alternative uses for existing drugs (ie, drug repurposing) requires substantially less time, cost and resources. Immune checkpoint inhibitors are licensed for the treatment of certain breast, colorectal, head and neck, lung and melanoma cancers. These drugs target immune checkpoint proteins to reduce the suppression of T cell activation by cancer cells. As T cell suppression is a hallmark of cancer common across anatomical sites, we hypothesise that immune checkpoint inhibitors could be repurposed for the treatment of additional cancers beyond the ones already indicated. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will use two-sample Mendelian randomisation to investigate the effect of genetically proxied levels of protein targets of two immune checkpoint inhibitors-programmed cell death protein 1 and programmed death ligand 1-on survival of seven cancer types (breast, colorectal, head and neck, lung, melanoma, ovarian and prostate). Summary genetic association data will be obtained from prior genome-wide association studies of circulating protein levels and cancer survival in populations of European ancestry. Various sensitivity analyses will be performed to examine the robustness of findings to potential violations of Mendelian randomisation assumptions, collider bias and the impact of alternative genetic instrument construction strategies. The impact of treatment history and tumour stage on the findings will also be investigated using summary-level and individual-level genetic data where available. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No separate ethics approval will be required for these analyses as we will be using data from previously published genome-wide association studies which individually gained ethical approval and participant consent. Results from analyses will be submitted as an open-access peer-reviewed publication and statistical code will be made freely available on the completion of the analysis.

Causal relationships between risk of venous thromboembolism and 18 cancers: a bidirectional Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: People with cancer experience high rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Risk of subsequent cancer is also increased in people experiencing their first VTE. The causal mechanisms underlying this association are not completely understood, and it is unknown whether VTE is itself a risk factor for cancer. METHODS: We used data from large genome-wide association study meta-analyses to perform bidirectional Mendelian randomization analyses to estimate causal associations between genetic liability to VTE and risk of 18 different cancers. RESULTS: We found no conclusive evidence that genetic liability to VTE was causally associated with an increased incidence of cancer, or vice versa. We observed an association between liability to VTE and pancreatic cancer risk [odds ratio for pancreatic cancer: 1.23 (95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.40) per log-odds increase in VTE risk, P = 0.002]. However, sensitivity analyses revealed this association was predominantly driven by a variant proxying non-O blood group, with inadequate evidence to suggest a causal relationship. CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not support the hypothesis that genetic liability to VTE is a cause of cancer. Existing observational epidemiological associations between VTE and cancer are therefore more likely to be driven by pathophysiological changes which occur in the setting of active cancer and anti-cancer treatments. Further work is required to explore and synthesize evidence for these mechanisms.

Causal relationships between risk of venous thromboembolism and 18 cancers: a bidirectional Mendelian randomisation analysis.

Background: People with cancer experience high rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Additionally, risk of subsequent cancer is increased in people experiencing their first VTE. The causal mechanisms underlying this association are not completely understood, and it is unknown whether VTE is itself a risk factor for cancer. Methods: We used data from large genome-wide association study meta-analyses to perform bi-directional Mendelian randomisation analyses to estimate causal associations between genetically-proxied lifetime risk of VTE and risk of 18 different cancers. Results: We found no conclusive evidence that genetically-proxied lifetime risk of VTE was causally associated with an increased incidence of cancer, or vice-versa. We observed an association between VTE and pancreatic cancer risk (odds ratio for pancreatic cancer 1.23 (95% confidence interval 1.08 - 1.40) per log-odds increase in risk of VTE, P = 0.002). However, sensitivity analyses revealed this association was predominantly driven by a variant proxying non-O blood group, with inadequate evidence from Mendelian randomisation to suggest a causal relationship. Conclusions: These findings do not support the hypothesis that genetically-proxied lifetime risk of VTE is a cause of cancer. Existing observational epidemiological associations between VTE and cancer are therefore more likely to be driven by pathophysiological changes which occur in the setting of active cancer and anti-cancer treatments. Further work is required to explore and synthesise evidence for these mechanisms.

Common genetic variations in telomere length genes and lung cancer: a Mendelian randomisation study and its novel application in lung tumour transcriptome.

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified genetic susceptibility variants for both leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and lung cancer susceptibility. Our study aims to explore the shared genetic basis between these traits and investigate their impact on somatic environment of lung tumours. Methods: We performed genetic correlation, Mendelian randomisation (MR), and colocalisation analyses using the largest available GWASs summary statistics of LTL (N=464,716) and lung cancer (N=29,239 cases and 56,450 controls). Principal components analysis based on RNA-sequencing data was used to summarise gene expression profile in lung adenocarcinoma cases from TCGA (N=343). Results: Although there was no genome-wide genetic correlation between LTL and lung cancer risk, longer LTL conferred an increased risk of lung cancer regardless of smoking status in the MR analyses, particularly for lung adenocarcinoma. Of the 144 LTL genetic instruments, 12 colocalised with lung adenocarcinoma risk and revealed novel susceptibility loci, including MPHOSPH6, PRPF6, and POLI. The polygenic risk score for LTL was associated with a specific gene expression profile (PC2) in lung adenocarcinoma tumours. The aspect of PC2 associated with longer LTL was also associated with being female, never smokers, and earlier tumour stages. PC2 was strongly associated with cell proliferation score and genomic features related to genome stability, including copy number changes and telomerase activity. Conclusions: This study identified an association between longer genetically predicted LTL and lung cancer and sheds light on the potential molecular mechanisms related to LTL in lung adenocarcinomas. Funding: Institut National du Cancer (GeniLuc2017-1-TABAC-03-CIRC-1-TABAC17-022), INTEGRAL/NIH (5U19CA203654-03), CRUK (C18281/A29019), and Agence Nationale pour la Recherche (ANR-10-INBS-09).

The association between genetically elevated polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of cancer.

BACKGROUND: The causal relevance of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) for risk of site-specific cancers remains uncertain. METHODS: Using a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we assessed the causal relevance of PUFAs for risk of cancer in European and East Asian ancestry individuals. We defined the primary exposure as PUFA desaturase activity, proxied by rs174546 at the FADS locus. Secondary exposures were defined as omega 3 and omega 6 PUFAs that could be proxied by genetic polymorphisms outside the FADS region. Our study used summary genetic data on 10 PUFAs and 67 cancers, corresponding to 562,871 cases and 1,619,465 controls, collected by the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) for cancer per standard deviation increase in genetically proxied PUFA exposures. FINDINGS: Genetically elevated PUFA desaturase activity was associated (P < 0.0007) with higher risk (OR [95% confidence interval]) of colorectal cancer (1.09 [1.07-1.11]), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (1.16 [1.06-1.26]), lung cancer (1.06 [1.03-1.08]) and basal cell carcinoma (1.05 [1.02-1.07]). There was little evidence for associations with reproductive cancers (OR = 1.00 [95% CI: 0.99-1.01]; Pheterogeneity = 0.25), urinary system cancers (1.03 [0.99-1.06], Pheterogeneity = 0.51), nervous system cancers (0.99 [0.95-1.03], Pheterogeneity = 0.92) or blood cancers (1.01 [0.98-1.04], Pheterogeneity = 0.09). Findings for colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma remained compatible with causality in sensitivity analyses for violations of assumptions. Secondary MR analyses highlighted higher omega 6 PUFAs (arachidonic acid, gamma-linolenic acid and dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid) as potential mediators. PUFA biosynthesis is known to interact with aspirin, which increases risk of bleeding and inflammatory bowel disease. In a phenome-wide MR study of non-neoplastic diseases, we found that genetic lowering of PUFA desaturase activity, mimicking a hypothetical intervention to reduce cancer risk, was associated (P < 0.0006) with increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease but not bleeding. INTERPRETATION: The PUFA biosynthesis pathway may be an intervention target for prevention of colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma but with potential for increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease. FUNDING: Cancer Resesrch UK (C52724/A20138, C18281/A19169). UK Medical Research Council (MR/P014054/1). National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411). UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4). National Cancer Institute (R00 CA215360). National Institutes of Health (U01 CA164973, R01 CA60987, R01 CA72520, U01 CA74806, R01 CA55874, U01 CA164973 and U01 CA164973).

Design and quality control of large-scale two-sample Mendelian randomization studies.

Background: Mendelian randomization (MR) studies are susceptible to metadata errors (e.g. incorrect specification of the effect allele column) and other analytical issues that can introduce substantial bias into analyses. We developed a quality control (QC) pipeline for the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration (FAMRC) that can be used to identify and correct for such errors. Methods: We collated summary association statistics from fatty acid and cancer genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and subjected the collated data to a comprehensive QC pipeline. We identified metadata errors through comparison of study-specific statistics to external reference data sets (the National Human Genome Research Institute-European Bioinformatics Institute GWAS catalogue and 1000 genome super populations) and other analytical issues through comparison of reported to expected genetic effect sizes. Comparisons were based on three sets of genetic variants: (i) GWAS hits for fatty acids, (ii) GWAS hits for cancer and (iii) a 1000 genomes reference set. Results: We collated summary data from 6 fatty acid and 54 cancer GWAS. Metadata errors and analytical issues with the potential to introduce substantial bias were identified in seven studies (11.6%). After resolving metadata errors and analytical issues, we created a data set of 219 842 genetic associations with 90 cancer types, generated in analyses of 566 665 cancer cases and 1 622 374 controls. Conclusions: In this large MR collaboration, 11.6% of included studies were affected by a substantial metadata error or analytical issue. By increasing the integrity of collated summary data prior to their analysis, our protocol can be used to increase the reliability of downstream MR analyses. Our pipeline is available to other researchers via the CheckSumStats package (https://github.com/MRCIEU/CheckSumStats).

Role of circulating polyunsaturated fatty acids on cardiovascular diseases risk: analysis using Mendelian randomization and fatty acid genetic association data from over 114,000 UK Biobank participants.

BACKGROUND: Despite early interest in the health effects of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), there is still substantial controversy and uncertainty on the evidence linking PUFA to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). We investigated the effect of plasma concentration of omega-3 PUFA (i.e. docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and total omega-3 PUFA) and omega-6 PUFA (i.e. linoleic acid and total omega-6 PUFA) on the risk of CVDs using Mendelian randomization. METHODS: We conducted the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of circulating PUFA to date including a sample of 114,999 individuals and incorporated these data in a two-sample Mendelian randomization framework to investigate the involvement of circulating PUFA on a wide range of CVDs in up to 1,153,768 individuals of European ancestry (i.e. coronary artery disease, ischemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, peripheral arterial disease, aortic aneurysm, venous thromboembolism and aortic valve stenosis). RESULTS: GWAS identified between 46 and 64 SNPs for the four PUFA traits, explaining 4.8-7.9% of circulating PUFA variance and with mean F statistics >100. Higher genetically predicted DHA (and total omega-3 fatty acids) concentration was related to higher risk of some cardiovascular endpoints; however, these findings did not pass our criteria for multiple testing correction and were attenuated when accounting for LDL-cholesterol through multivariable Mendelian randomization or excluding SNPs in the vicinity of the FADS locus. Estimates for the relation between higher genetically predicted linoleic acid (and total omega-6) concentration were inconsistent across different cardiovascular endpoints and Mendelian randomization methods. There was weak evidence of higher genetically predicted linoleic acid being related to lower risk of ischemic stroke and peripheral artery disease when accounting by LDL-cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: We have conducted the largest GWAS of circulating PUFA to date and the most comprehensive Mendelian randomization analyses. Overall, our Mendelian randomization findings do not support a protective role of circulating PUFA concentration on the risk of CVDs. However, horizontal pleiotropy via lipoprotein-related traits could be a key source of bias in our analyses.

Assessing the causal role of epigenetic clocks in the development of multiple cancers: a Mendelian randomization study.

Background: Epigenetic clocks have been associated with cancer risk in several observational studies. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether they play a causal role in cancer risk or if they act as a non-causal biomarker. Methods: We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study to examine the genetically predicted effects of epigenetic age acceleration as measured by HannumAge (nine single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)), Horvath Intrinsic Age (24 SNPs), PhenoAge (11 SNPs), and GrimAge (4 SNPs) on multiple cancers (i.e. breast, prostate, colorectal, ovarian and lung cancer). We obtained genome-wide association data for biological ageing from a meta-analysis (N = 34,710), and for cancer from the UK Biobank (N cases = 2671-13,879; N controls = 173,493-372,016), FinnGen (N cases = 719-8401; N controls = 74,685-174,006) and several international cancer genetic consortia (N cases = 11,348-122,977; N controls = 15,861-105,974). Main analyses were performed using multiplicative random effects inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR. Individual study estimates were pooled using fixed effect meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses included MR-Egger, weighted median, weighted mode and Causal Analysis using Summary Effect Estimates (CAUSE) methods, which are robust to some of the assumptions of the IVW approach. Results: Meta-analysed IVW MR findings suggested that higher GrimAge acceleration increased the risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.12 per year increase in GrimAge acceleration, 95% CI 1.04-1.20, p = 0.002). The direction of the genetically predicted effects was consistent across main and sensitivity MR analyses. Among subtypes, the genetically predicted effect of GrimAge acceleration was greater for colon cancer (IVW OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.09-1.21, p = 0.006), than rectal cancer (IVW OR = 1.05, 95% CI 0.97-1.13, p = 0.24). Results were less consistent for associations between other epigenetic clocks and cancers. Conclusions: GrimAge acceleration may increase the risk of colorectal cancer. Findings for other clocks and cancers were inconsistent. Further work is required to investigate the potential mechanisms underlying the results. Funding: FMB was supported by a Wellcome Trust PhD studentship in Molecular, Genetic and Lifecourse Epidemiology (224982/Z/22/Z which is part of grant 218495/Z/19/Z). KKT was supported by a Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019) programme grant (the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme) and by the Hellenic Republic's Operational Programme 'Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship & Innovation' (OΠΣ 5047228). PH was supported by Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019). RMM was supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol and by a Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019) programme grant (the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme). RMM is a National Institute for Health Research Senior Investigator (NIHR202411). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. GDS and CLR were supported by the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1 and MC_UU_00011/5, respectively) and by a Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019) programme grant (the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme). REM was supported by an Alzheimer's Society project grant (AS-PG-19b-010) and NIH grant (U01 AG-18-018, PI: Steve Horvath). RCR is a de Pass Vice Chancellor's Research Fellow at the University of Bristol.

Have you noticed that some people seem to get older faster than others? Scientists have previously found that a chemical tag on DNA known as DNA methylation can be used to predict an individual's chronological age. However, age predicted using DNA methylation (also known as biological or epigenetic age) does not always perfectly correspond to chronological age. Indeed, some people's biological age is higher than their years, while other people's is lower. When an individual's biological age is higher than their chronological age, they are said to be experiencing 'epigenetic age acceleration'. This type of accelerated ageing, which can be measured with 'epigenetic clocks' based on DNA methylation, has been associated with several adverse health outcomes, including cancer. This means that epigenetic clocks may improve our ability to predict cancer risk and detect cancer early. However, it is still unclear whether accelerated biological ageing causes cancer, or whether it simply correlates with the disease. Morales-Berstein et al. wanted to investigate whether epigenetic age acceleration, as measured by epigenetic clocks, plays a role in the development of several cancers. To do so, they used an approach known as Mendelian randomization. Using genetic variants as natural experiments, they studied the effect of different measures of epigenetic age acceleration on cancer risk. Their work focused on five types of cancer: breast, colorectal, prostate, ovarian and lung cancer. They used genetic association data from people of European ancestry to determine whether genetic variants that are strongly associated with accelerated ageing are also strongly associated with cancer. The results showed that one of the DNA methylation markers used as an estimate of biological ageing could be directly related to the risk of developing colorectal cancer. This work provides new insights into the relationship between markers of biological ageing and cancer. Similar relationships should also be studied in other groups of people and for other cancer sites. The results suggest that reversing biological ageing by altering DNA methylation could prevent or delay the development of colorectal cancer.

Circulating inflammatory cytokines and risk of five cancers: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological and experimental evidence has linked chronic inflammation to cancer aetiology. It is unclear whether associations for specific inflammatory biomarkers are causal or due to bias. In order to examine whether altered genetically predicted concentration of circulating cytokines are associated with cancer development, we performed a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis. METHODS: Up to 31,112 individuals of European descent were included in genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses of 47 circulating cytokines. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated with the cytokines, located in or close to their coding gene (cis), were used as instrumental variables. Inverse-variance weighted MR was used as the primary analysis, and the MR assumptions were evaluated in sensitivity and colocalization analyses and a false discovery rate (FDR) correction for multiple comparisons was applied. Corresponding germline GWAS summary data for five cancer outcomes (breast, endometrial, lung, ovarian, and prostate), and their subtypes were selected from the largest cancer-specific GWASs available (cases ranging from 12,906 for endometrial to 133,384 for breast cancer). RESULTS: There was evidence of inverse associations of macrophage migration inhibitory factor with breast cancer (OR per SD = 0.88, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.94), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist with endometrial cancer (0.86, 0.80 to 0.93), interleukin-18 with lung cancer (0.87, 0.81 to 0.93), and beta-chemokine-RANTES with ovarian cancer (0.70, 0.57 to 0.85) and positive associations of monokine induced by gamma interferon with endometrial cancer (3.73, 1.86 to 7.47) and cutaneous T-cell attracting chemokine with lung cancer (1.51, 1.22 to 1.87). These associations were similar in sensitivity analyses and supported in colocalization analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study adds to current knowledge on the role of specific inflammatory biomarker pathways in cancer aetiology. Further validation is needed to assess the potential of these cytokines as pharmacological or lifestyle targets for cancer prevention.

Trans-ethnic Mendelian-randomization study reveals causal relationships between cardiometabolic factors and chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: This study was to systematically test whether previously reported risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD) are causally related to CKD in European and East Asian ancestries using Mendelian randomization. METHODS: A total of 45 risk factors with genetic data in European ancestry and 17 risk factors in East Asian participants were identified as exposures from PubMed. We defined the CKD by clinical diagnosis or by estimated glomerular filtration rate of <60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Ultimately, 51 672 CKD cases and 958 102 controls of European ancestry from CKDGen, UK Biobank and HUNT, and 13 093 CKD cases and 238 118 controls of East Asian ancestry from Biobank Japan, China Kadoorie Biobank and Japan-Kidney-Biobank/ToMMo were included. RESULTS: Eight risk factors showed reliable evidence of causal effects on CKD in Europeans, including genetically predicted body mass index (BMI), hypertension, systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein A-I, lipoprotein(a), type 2 diabetes (T2D) and nephrolithiasis. In East Asians, BMI, T2D and nephrolithiasis showed evidence of causality on CKD. In two independent replication analyses, we observed that increased hypertension risk showed reliable evidence of a causal effect on increasing CKD risk in Europeans but in contrast showed a null effect in East Asians. Although liability to T2D showed consistent effects on CKD, the effects of glycaemic phenotypes on CKD were weak. Non-linear Mendelian randomization indicated a threshold relationship between genetically predicted BMI and CKD, with increased risk at BMI of >25 kg/m2. CONCLUSIONS: Eight cardiometabolic risk factors showed causal effects on CKD in Europeans and three of them showed causality in East Asians, providing insights into the design of future interventions to reduce the burden of CKD.

Identifying drug targets for neurological and psychiatric disease via genetics and the brain transcriptome.

Discovering drugs that efficiently treat brain diseases has been challenging. Genetic variants that modulate the expression of potential drug targets can be utilized to assess the efficacy of therapeutic interventions. We therefore employed Mendelian Randomization (MR) on gene expression measured in brain tissue to identify drug targets involved in neurological and psychiatric diseases. We conducted a two-sample MR using cis-acting brain-derived expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) from the Accelerating Medicines Partnership for Alzheimer's Disease consortium (AMP-AD) and the CommonMind Consortium (CMC) meta-analysis study (n = 1,286) as genetic instruments to predict the effects of 7,137 genes on 12 neurological and psychiatric disorders. We conducted Bayesian colocalization analysis on the top MR findings (using P<6x10-7 as evidence threshold, Bonferroni-corrected for 80,557 MR tests) to confirm sharing of the same causal variants between gene expression and trait in each genomic region. We then intersected the colocalized genes with known monogenic disease genes recorded in Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM) and with genes annotated as drug targets in the Open Targets platform to identify promising drug targets. 80 eQTLs showed MR evidence of a causal effect, from which we prioritised 47 genes based on colocalization with the trait. We causally linked the expression of 23 genes with schizophrenia and a single gene each with anorexia, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder within the psychiatric diseases and 9 genes with Alzheimer's disease, 6 genes with Parkinson's disease, 4 genes with multiple sclerosis and two genes with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis within the neurological diseases we tested. From these we identified five genes (ACE, GPNMB, KCNQ5, RERE and SUOX) as attractive drug targets that may warrant follow-up in functional studies and clinical trials, demonstrating the value of this study design for discovering drug targets in neuropsychiatric diseases.

Causal relationships between body mass index, smoking and lung cancer: Univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization.

At the time of cancer diagnosis, body mass index (BMI) is inversely correlated with lung cancer risk, which may reflect reverse causality and confounding due to smoking behavior. We used two-sample univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate causal relationships of BMI and smoking behaviors on lung cancer and histological subtypes based on an aggregated genome-wide association studies (GWASs) analysis of lung cancer in 29 266 cases and 56 450 controls. We observed a positive causal effect for high BMI on occurrence of small-cell lung cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.24-2.06, P = 2.70 × 10-4 ). After adjustment of smoking behaviors using multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR), a direct causal effect on small cell lung cancer (ORMVMR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.06-1.55, PMVMR = .011), and an inverse effect on lung adenocarcinoma (ORMVMR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.77-0.96, PMVMR = .008) were observed. A weak increased risk of lung squamous cell carcinoma was observed for higher BMI in univariable Mendelian randomization (UVMR) analysis (ORUVMR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.01-1.40, PUVMR = .036), but this effect disappeared after adjustment of smoking (ORMVMR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.90-1.16, PMVMR = .746). These results highlight the histology-specific impact of BMI on lung carcinogenesis and imply mediator role of smoking behaviors in the association between BMI and lung cancer.

Mendelian Randomization Analysis of n-6 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acid Levels and Pancreatic Cancer Risk.

BACKGROUND: Whether circulating polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) levels are associated with pancreatic cancer risk is uncertain. Mendelian randomization (MR) represents a study design using genetic instruments to better characterize the relationship between exposure and outcome. METHODS: We utilized data from genome-wide association studies within the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium and Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium, involving approximately 9,269 cases and 12,530 controls of European descent, to evaluate associations between pancreatic cancer risk and genetically predicted plasma n-6 PUFA levels. Conventional MR analyses were performed using individual-level and summary-level data. RESULTS: Using genetic instruments, we did not find evidence of associations between genetically predicted plasma n-6 PUFA levels and pancreatic cancer risk [estimates per one SD increase in each PUFA-specific weighted genetic score using summary statistics: linoleic acid odds ratio (OR) = 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.98-1.02; arachidonic acid OR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.99-1.01; and dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid OR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.87-1.02]. The OR estimates remained virtually unchanged after adjustment for covariates, using individual-level data or summary statistics, or stratification by age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that variations of genetically determined plasma n-6 PUFA levels are not associated with pancreatic cancer risk. IMPACT: These results suggest that modifying n-6 PUFA levels through food sources or supplementation may not influence risk of pancreatic cancer.

Phenome-wide Mendelian randomization mapping the influence of the plasma proteome on complex diseases.

The human proteome is a major source of therapeutic targets. Recent genetic association analyses of the plasma proteome enable systematic evaluation of the causal consequences of variation in plasma protein levels. Here we estimated the effects of 1,002 proteins on 225 phenotypes using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization. Of 413 associations supported by evidence from MR, 130 (31.5%) were not supported by results of colocalization analyses, suggesting that genetic confounding due to linkage disequilibrium is widespread in naïve phenome-wide association studies of proteins. Combining MR and colocalization evidence in cis-only analyses, we identified 111 putatively causal effects between 65 proteins and 52 disease-related phenotypes ( https://www.epigraphdb.org/pqtl/ ). Evaluation of data from historic drug development programs showed that target-indication pairs with MR and colocalization support were more likely to be approved, evidencing the value of this approach in identifying and prioritizing potential therapeutic targets.

The Effect of Plasma Lipids and Lipid-Lowering Interventions on Bone Mineral Density: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Several epidemiological studies have reported a relationship between statin treatment and increased bone mineral density (BMD) and reduced fracture risk, but the mechanism underlying the purported relationship is unclear. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to assess whether this relationship is explained by a specific effect in response to statin use or by a general effect of lipid lowering. We utilized 400 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated with plasma lipid levels as exposure. The outcome results were obtained from a heel estimated BMD (eBMD) genomewide association study (GWAS) from the UK Biobank and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) BMD at four body sites and fracture GWAS from the GEFOS consortium. We performed univariate and multivariable MR analyses of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride levels on BMD and fracture. Univariate MR analyses suggested a causal effect of LDL-C on eBMD (ß = -0.06; standard deviation change in eBMD per standard deviation change in LDL-C, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.08 to -0.04; p = 4 × 10-6 ), total body BMD (ß = -0.05, 95% CI = -0.08 to -0.01, p = 6 × 10-3 ) and potentially on lumbar spine BMD. Multivariable MR suggested that the effects of LDL-C on eBMD and total body BMD were independent of HDL-C and triglycerides. Sensitivity MR analyses suggested that the LDL-C results were robust to pleiotropy. MR analyses of LDL-C restricted to SNPs in the HMGCR region showed similar effects on eBMD (ß = -0.083; -0.132 to -0.034; p = .001) to those excluding these SNPs (ß = -0.063; -0.090 to -0.036; p = 8 × 10-6 ). Bidirectional MR analyses provided some evidence for a causal effect of eBMD on plasma LDL-C levels. Our results suggest that effects of statins on eBMD and total body BMD are at least partly due to their LDL-C lowering effect. Further studies are required to examine the potential role of modifying plasma lipid levels in treating osteoporosis. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Exploiting horizontal pleiotropy to search for causal pathways within a Mendelian randomization framework.

In Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis, variants that exert horizontal pleiotropy are typically treated as a nuisance. However, they could be valuable in identifying alternative pathways to the traits under investigation. Here, we develop MR-TRYX, a framework that exploits horizontal pleiotropy to discover putative risk factors for disease. We begin by detecting outliers in a single exposure-outcome MR analysis, hypothesising they are due to horizontal pleiotropy. We search across hundreds of complete GWAS summary datasets to systematically identify other (candidate) traits that associate with the outliers. We develop a multi-trait pleiotropy model of the heterogeneity in the exposure-outcome analysis due to pathways through candidate traits. Through detailed investigation of several causal relationships, many pleiotropic pathways are uncovered with already established causal effects, validating the approach, but also alternative putative causal pathways. Adjustment for pleiotropic pathways reduces the heterogeneity across the analyses.

Mendelian Randomization of Circulating Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids and Colorectal Cancer Risk.

BACKGROUND: Results from epidemiologic studies examining polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and colorectal cancer risk are inconsistent. Mendelian randomization may strengthen causal inference from observational studies. Given their shared metabolic pathway, examining the combined effects of aspirin/NSAID use with PUFAs could help elucidate an association between PUFAs and colorectal cancer risk. METHODS: Information was leveraged from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) regarding PUFA-associated SNPs to create weighted genetic scores (wGS) representing genetically predicted circulating blood PUFAs for 11,016 non-Hispanic white colorectal cancer cases and 13,732 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO). Associations per SD increase in the wGS were estimated using unconditional logistic regression. Interactions between PUFA wGSs and aspirin/NSAID use on colorectal cancer risk were also examined. RESULTS: Modest colorectal cancer risk reductions were observed per SD increase in circulating linoleic acid [ORLA = 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.93-0.98; P = 5.2 × 10-4] and α-linolenic acid (ORALA = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.92-0.97; P = 5.4 × 10-5), whereas modest increased risks were observed for arachidonic (ORAA = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.03-1.08; P = 3.3 × 10-5), eicosapentaenoic (OREPA = 1.04; 95% CI = 1.01-1.07; P = 2.5 × 10-3), and docosapentaenoic acids (ORDPA = 1.03; 95% CI = 1.01-1.06; P = 1.2 × 10-2). Each of these effects was stronger among aspirin/NSAID nonusers in the stratified analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that higher circulating shorter-chain PUFAs (i.e., LA and ALA) were associated with reduced colorectal cancer risk, whereas longer-chain PUFAs (i.e., AA, EPA, and DPA) were associated with an increased colorectal cancer risk. IMPACT: The interaction of PUFAs with aspirin/NSAID use indicates a shared colorectal cancer inflammatory pathway. Future research should continue to improve PUFA genetic instruments to elucidate the independent effects of PUFAs on colorectal cancer.

Immune-mediated genetic pathways resulting in pulmonary function impairment increase lung cancer susceptibility.

Impaired lung function is often caused by cigarette smoking, making it challenging to disentangle its role in lung cancer susceptibility. Investigation of the shared genetic basis of these phenotypes in the UK Biobank and International Lung Cancer Consortium (29,266 cases, 56,450 controls) shows that lung cancer is genetically correlated with reduced forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1: rg = 0.098, p = 2.3 × 10-8) and the ratio of FEV1 to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC: rg = 0.137, p = 2.0 × 10-12). Mendelian randomization analyses demonstrate that reduced FEV1 increases squamous cell carcinoma risk (odds ratio (OR) = 1.51, 95% confidence intervals: 1.21-1.88), while reduced FEV1/FVC increases the risk of adenocarcinoma (OR = 1.17, 1.01-1.35) and lung cancer in never smokers (OR = 1.56, 1.05-2.30). These findings support a causal role of pulmonary impairment in lung cancer etiology. Integrative analyses reveal that pulmonary function instruments, including 73 novel variants, influence lung tissue gene expression and implicate immune-related pathways in mediating the observed effects on lung carcinogenesis.

Appraising causal relationships of dietary, nutritional and physical-activity exposures with overall and aggressive prostate cancer: two-sample Mendelian-randomization study based on 79 148 prostate-cancer cases and 61 106 controls.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is the second most common male cancer worldwide, but there is substantial geographical variation, suggesting a potential role for modifiable risk factors in prostate carcinogenesis. METHODS: We identified previously reported prostate cancer risk factors from the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF)'s systematic appraisal of the global evidence (2018). We assessed whether each identified risk factor was causally associated with risk of overall (79 148 cases and 61 106 controls) or aggressive (15 167 cases and 58 308 controls) prostate cancer using Mendelian randomization (MR) based on genome-wide association-study summary statistics from the PRACTICAL and GAME-ON/ELLIPSE consortia. We assessed evidence for replication in UK Biobank (7844 prostate-cancer cases and 204 001 controls). RESULTS: WCRF identified 57 potential risk factors, of which 22 could be instrumented for MR analyses using single nucleotide polymorphisms. For overall prostate cancer, we identified evidence compatible with causality for the following risk factors (odds ratio [OR] per standard deviation increase; 95% confidence interval): accelerometer-measured physical activity, OR = 0.49 (0.33-0.72; P = 0.0003); serum iron, OR = 0.92 (0.86-0.98; P = 0.007); body mass index (BMI), OR = 0.90 (0.84-0.97; P = 0.003); and monounsaturated fat, OR = 1.11 (1.02-1.20; P = 0.02). Findings in our replication analyses in UK Biobank were compatible with our main analyses (albeit with wide confidence intervals). In MR analysis, height was positively associated with aggressive-prostate-cancer risk: OR = 1.07 (1.01-1.15; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The results for physical activity, serum iron, BMI, monounsaturated fat and height are compatible with causality for prostate cancer. The results suggest that interventions aimed at increasing physical activity may reduce prostate-cancer risk, although interventions to change other risk factors may have negative consequences on other diseases.

Using the MR-Base platform to investigate risk factors and drug targets for thousands of phenotypes.

Mendelian randomization (MR) estimates the causal effect of exposures on outcomes by exploiting genetic variation to address confounding and reverse causation. This method has a broad range of applications, including investigating risk factors and appraising potential targets for intervention. MR-Base has become established as a freely accessible, online platform, which combines a database of complete genome-wide association study results with an interface for performing Mendelian randomization and sensitivity analyses. This allows the user to explore millions of potentially causal associations. MR-Base is available as a web application or as an R package. The technical aspects of the tool have previously been documented in the literature. The present article is complementary to this as it focuses on the applied aspects. Specifically, we describe how MR-Base can be used in several ways, including to perform novel causal analyses, replicate results and enable transparency, amongst others. We also present three use cases, which demonstrate important applications of Mendelian randomization and highlight the benefits of using MR-Base for these types of analyses.