The written history of plant phenology: shaping primary sources for secondary publications.

Phenological research establishes the science of nature's natural calendar. This research, the monitoring and analysis of seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, is commonly based on citizen science data. Such data may be digitized from primary sources provided by the citizen scientist's original phenological diaries. Secondary data sources are formed by historical publications (for example, yearbooks and climate bulletins). While primary data has the advantage of first-hand notetaking, its digitization may, in practice, be time-consuming. Contrastingly, secondary data can contain well-organized typesetting, making digitization less labour-intensive. However, secondary data can be reshaped by the motivations of the historical actors who were collating the data. This study compared data from 1876-1894 gathered originally by citizen scientists (primary data) and the secondary data founded upon the previous primary data, later published by the Finnish Society of Sciences and Letters as a series of phenological yearbooks. In the secondary data, the recorded numbers of taxa and their phenological stages appeared to be fewer and phenological events standardized, with an increased prevalence of agricultural phenology (at the cost of autumn phenology). Moreover, it seems the secondary data had been screened for potential outliers. While secondary sources may provide current phenologists with coherent sets of relevant data, future users must be aware of potential data reshaping resulting from the preferences of historical actors. These actors may weigh and limit the original observations according to their own criteria and preferences.

Plant phenological dataset collated by the Finnish Society of Sciences and Letters.

Long records of phenological observations constitute data for ecological, climate, and global change studies. Here we provide a unique dataset of plant phenological observations made in boreal Europe between 1750 and 1965 from locations situated across historical and modern Finland, mostly between 70° and 60° N and 30° and 20° E. This dataset was generated initially by the efforts of several generations of volunteers representing naturalists whose field observations and notes had initially made the continuous collection of the data possible. In addition, the data were collated by the Finnish Economic Society and the Finnish Society of Sciences and Letters and published irregularly in the form of several monographs and periodicals by contemporary academic enthusiasts. Each phenological observation contains 11 features including: site name, site latitude, site longitude, scientific species name, phenological stage, and (if any) its substage, year, date (month and day) and the day since the summer solstice, the original literature source, and outlier estimate. Species names given originally either in Latin, Finnish, German, and/or Swedish were transformed into scientific species names. Moreover, outdated taxonomic names were updated as appropriate. Phenological stages that had been given originally either in German, Finnish, and/or Swedish were transformed into English and standardized by excluding synonyms. Site names were adopted at the county level, with corresponding latitude and longitude generated herein. The digitized dataset represents 265,478 observations of 985 taxa (assigned to variety/subspecies/species/hybrid/genus) for their 16 different phenological stages made in 371 locations across the region. We provide this dataset to support comparative studies and modeling projects, seeking to improve the understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics and its responses to a changing environment from a local to a global scale. Use of this dataset for academic or educational purposes is encouraged as long as the data source is correctly cited with attribution given to this presentation of the data. Users are free to use and analyze the data; additionally, we would like to hear from other researchers who use this dataset in teaching or for their own research.

Recurrent transitions to Little Ice Age-like climatic regimes over the Holocene.

Holocene climate variability is punctuated by episodic climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (LIA) predating the industrial-era warming. Their dating and forcing mechanisms have however remained controversial. Even more crucially, it is uncertain whether earlier events represent climatic regimes similar to the LIA. Here we produce and analyse a new 7500-year long palaeoclimate record tailored to detect LIA-like climatic regimes from northern European tree-ring data. In addition to the actual LIA, we identify LIA-like ca. 100-800 year periods with cold temperatures combined with clear sky conditions from 540 CE, 1670 BCE, 3240 BCE and 5450 BCE onwards, these LIA-like regimes covering 20% of the study period. Consistent with climate modelling, the LIA-like regimes originate from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice North Atlantic-Arctic system and were amplified by volcanic activity (multiple eruptions closely spaced in time), tree-ring evidence pointing to similarly enhanced LIA-like regimes starting after the eruptions recorded in 1627 BCE, 536/540 CE and 1809/1815 CE. Conversely, the ongoing decline in Arctic sea-ice extent is mirrored in our data which shows reversal of the LIA-like conditions since the late nineteenth century, our record also correlating highly with the instrumentally recorded Northern Hemisphere and global temperatures over the same period. Our results bridge the gaps between low- and high-resolution, precisely dated proxies and demonstrate the efficacy of slow and fast components of the climate system to generate LIA-like climate regimes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-021-05669-0.

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions.

Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

Finnish National Phenological Network 1997-2017: from observations to trend detection.

Plant phenological dataset collected at 42 sites across the mainland of Finland and covering the years 1997-2017 is presented and analysed for temporal trends. The dataset of n = 16,257 observations represents eleven plant species and fifteen phenological stages and results in forty different variables, i.e. phenophases. Trend analysis was carried out for n = 808 phenological time-series that contained at least 10 observations over the 21-year study period. A clear signal of advancing spring and early-summer phenology was detected, 3.4 days decade-1, demonstrated by a high proportion of negative trends for phenophases occurring in April through June. Latitudinal correlation indicated stronger signal of spring and early-summer phenology towards the northern part of the study region. The autumn signal was less consistent and showed larger within-site variations than those observed in other seasons. More than 60% of the dates based on single tree/monitoring square were exactly the same as the averages from multiple trees/monitoring squares within the site. In particular, the reliability of data on autumn phenology was increased by multiple observations per site. The network is no longer active.

Buried in water, burdened by nature-Resilience carried the Iron Age people through Fimbulvinter.

Levänluhta is a unique archaeological site with the remains of nearly a hundred Iron Age individuals found from a water burial in Ostrobothnia, Finland. The strongest climatic downturn of the Common Era, resembling the great Fimbulvinter in Norse mythology, hit these people during the 6th century AD. This study establishes chronological, dietary, and livelihood synthesis on this population based on stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic and radiocarbon analyses on human remains, supported by multidisciplinary evidence. Extraordinarily broad stable isotopic distribution is observed, indicating three subgroups with distinct dietary habits spanning four centuries. This emphasizes the versatile livelihoods practiced at this boundary of marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems. While the impact of the prolonged cold darkness of the 6th century was devastating for European communities relying on cultivation, the broad range of livelihoods provided resilience for the Levänluhta people to overcome the abrupt climatic decline.

Arctic moistening provides negative feedbacks to riparian plants.

Arctic moistening will affect the circumpolar forested riparian ecosystems. Upward trends observed for precipitation in high latitudes illustrate that the moistening may be underway to influence the woody biomass production near the inland waters, lakes and streams with effects on carbon pools and fluxes. Although the flooding and waterlogging tolerance of seedlings has been investigated, our understanding of responses in mature trees is still limited. Here we employ tree-ring δ13 C and width data from a subarctic riparian setting in Lapland, where artificially high lake level (HLL) has already altered the ecophysiological and growth responses of riparian Pinus sylvestris trees to external drivers under conditions simulating moister environment. Prior to the HLL event, the carbon assimilation rate was primarily limited by irradiance as reflected in the δ13 C data and the radial growth of south-facing riparian trees remained increased in comparison to shaded upland trees. By contrast, the riparian trees were not similarly benefited during the HLL period when reduced assimilation depleted the riparian in comparison to upland δ13 C despite of increased irradiance. As a result, the radial growth of riparian trees was markedly reduced over the HLL event while the upland trees benefited from increased irradiance and summer time warming. Although the production of biomass at high latitudes is commonly considered temperature-limited, our results highlight the increasing role of Arctic moistening to limit the growth when increased precipitation (cloudiness) reduces the incoming solar radiation in general and when the riparian habitat becomes increasingly waterlogged in particular. The effects of high-latitude warming to induce higher biomass productivity may be restricted by negative feedbacks.

Volcanic dust veils from sixth century tree-ring isotopes linked to reduced irradiance, primary production and human health.

The large volcanic eruptions of AD 536 and 540 led to climate cooling and contributed to hardships of Late Antiquity societies throughout Eurasia, and triggered a major environmental event in the historical Roman Empire. Our set of stable carbon isotope records from subfossil tree rings demonstrates a strong negative excursion in AD 536 and 541-544. Modern data from these sites show that carbon isotope variations are driven by solar radiation. A model based on sixth century isotopes reconstruct an irradiance anomaly for AD 536 and 541-544 of nearly three standard deviations below the mean value based on modern data. This anomaly can be explained by a volcanic dust veil reducing solar radiation and thus primary production threatening food security over a multitude of years. We offer a hypothesis that persistently low irradiance contributed to remarkably simultaneous outbreaks of famine and Justinianic plague in the eastern Roman Empire with adverse effects on crop production and photosynthesis of the vitamin D in human skin and thus, collectively, human health. Our results provide a hitherto unstudied proxy for exploring the mechanisms of 'volcanic summers' to demonstrate the post-eruption deficiencies in sunlight and to explain the human consequences during such calamity years.

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era.

Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other "Old World" climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the "Old World Drought Atlas" (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

LA-ICP-MS-derived U-concentrations and microstructural domains within biogenic aragonite of Arctica islandica shell.

Understanding of the uranium uptake processes (both in vivo and post-mortem) into the skeletal structures of marine calcifiers is a subject of multi-disciplinary interest. U-concentration changes within the molluscan shell may serve as a paleoceanographic proxy of the pH history. A proxy of this type is needed to track the effects of fossil fuel emissions to ocean acidification. Moreover, attaining reliable U-series dates using shell materials would be a geochronological breakthrough. Picturing the high-resolution changes of U-concentrations in shell profiles is now possible by laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Here, we analyzed in situ U-concentration variations in sub-fossilized shells of ocean quahog (Arctica islandica), a commonly studied bivalve species in Quaternary geoscience, using LA-ICP-MS. Microstructural details of the shell profiles were achieved by the scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Comparison of the shell aragonite microstructure with the changes in U-concentration revealed that uranium of possibly secondary origin is concentrated into the porous granular layers of the shell. Our results reinforce the hypothesis that U-concentration variations can be linked with microstructural differences within the shell. A combination of LA-ICP-MS and SEM analyses is recommended as an interesting approach for understanding the U-concentration variations in similar materials.

[Finnish suicide mortality from 1950 to 2009 in an European comparison]. / Suomalainen itsemurhakuolleisuus 1950-2009 eurooppalaisessa vertailussa.

BACKGROUND: Trends in suicide mortality in Europe from 1950 to 2009 were studied. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data on 4,777,113 suicides in addition to the data on population were extracted from the WHO Mortality Database. RESULTS: In Europe, there was an increase in suicide mortality during the 1980s and the 1990s, followed by a decrease. The suicide mortality of Finnish men has decreased from the highest rate in the 1950s to the ninth place in the 2000s. In contrast, the suicide mortality of Finnish women is currently the second highest in Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous work and research are needed to enhance suicide prevention at the regional level.

Does diurnal temperature range influence seasonal suicide mortality? Assessment of daily data of the Helsinki metropolitan area from 1973 to 2010.

Several studies show a peak in suicide rates during springtime and suggest differences in the seasonal variation of suicides. However, the seasonal distribution of the temperature impact on suicide is less clear. This study investigated the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) on suicide mortality. Daily temperature and suicide data for Helsinki were analyzed for the period of 1973-2010 inclusive. Overall, DTR reached its maximum during the spring from mid-April to mid-June, which is also the season with highest suicide mortality in the study region. Specifically, the seasonal timing and maxima for both DTR and suicides vary from year to year. Time series analysis of DTR and suicide records revealed a significant (P<0.01) correlation between the springtime DTR maxima and suicide rates for males. No similar association could be found for females. These results provide evidence that a higher springtime DTR could be linked statistically to a higher seasonal suicide rate each spring, whereas the exact timing of the DTR peak did not associate with the seasonal suicide rate. A possible mechanism behind the springtime association between the DTR and suicides originates from brown adipose tissue (BAT) over-activity. Activation of BAT through the winter improves cold tolerance at the cost of heat tolerance. This might trigger anxiety and psychomotor agitation, affecting mood in a negative way. As a hypothesis, the compromised heat tolerance is suggested to increase the risk of death from suicide.

Variation and seasonal patterns of suicide mortality in Finland and Sweden since the 1750s.

OBJECTIVES: Suicide mortality varies in both the short and long term. Our study examines suicide mortality in Finland and Sweden from the 1750s until today. The aim of our study is to detect any seasonal peaks in suicide rates and examine their temporal evolution to suggest a mechanism that may explain such peaks. METHOD: We acquired the study material from the Finnish and Swedish cause of death statistics (257,341 deaths by suicide) and the relevant population gender structure data. We then separately calculated the annual male and female suicide rates per 100,000 inhabitants. We analysed the suicide peaks, calculating factors of proportionality for the available data by dividing the suicide rates in the peak months (May and October) by the annual suicide rates. RESULTS: Suicide rates in Finland and Sweden peak twice a year. Both men and women in both countries most often commit suicide in May. There is another peak in October, with the exception of Finnish men. These suicide peaks coincide with a temperature increase in May and the biggest annual drop in temperature in October. We also observed a monotonic long-term change in the Swedish statistics, but not in the Finnish data. Our hypothesis is that seasonal variation in suicide rates may be caused by abrupt temperature changes twice a year that trigger the activity in brown adipose tissue and deepen depression. CONCLUSION: While the overall suicide mortality rates varied considerably, the monthly proportions in May did not. This finding suggests a routine factor underlying the spring peak in suicide mortality.

Temperature-associated suicide mortality: contrasting roles of climatic warming and the suicide prevention program in Finland.

OBJECTIVES: Suicide is a notable cause of death worldwide, and while suicidal behavior appears to be associated with variations in temperature, no estimations are available of climate change impacts on suicide rates. The study aims to evaluate the influence of temperature on suicide mortality, especially on multi-decadal and longer time scales, that is, at scales on which the ongoing warming distinctly operates and is correspondingly appropriate for the current policy responses to warming climate. METHODS: Our results are based on an extraordinarily long record of deaths from suicide in Finland from 1751 to 2008, and a similarly long climatic record of ambient temperatures correlative of environmental change in the study region. RESULTS: We show that temperature variability explains more than 60 % of the total suicide variance up until the initiation of a national suicide prevention program. Despite ongoing warming, suicide rates have declined since the initiation of the program. CONCLUSION: By understanding the complexity of suicidal behavior as a response to ambient warming and the observed effects of interventions, our results underline the pressing need for a network of prevention programs to battle against temperature-mediated health hazards.

Plant phenological records in northern Finland since the 18th century as retrieved from databases, archives and diaries for biometeorological research.

Plant phenological data from northern Finland, compiled from several sources, were examined as potential biometeorological indicators of climate change since the 18th century. A common feature of individual series was their sporadic nature. In addition to waning enthusiasm, wartime hardships and crop failures had caused gaps in recording observations during the 18th and 19th centuries. The present study's challenge was to combine separate records, as retrieved from several historical archives and personal diaries, into a single continuous series. To avoid possible biases due to the variability of data availability each year, each phenomenon-specific mean series was transformed into normalized site-specific index series. These series were compared to each other and to a regional instrumental temperature series (years 1802-2011). The inter-phenomena correlations were high. Moreover, a strong biometeorological response of the phenological series, most especially to monthly mean temperature in May, and seasonally to the April through June temperatures, was identified. This response focused on slightly later spring months compared to the responses in an earlier study conducted for southern Finland. The findings encouraged us to compute a total phenological index series as an average of all available phenomenon-specific index series for northern Finland. The earliest phenological springs were found as a cluster in the recent end of the record, whereas the anomalously-late phenological spring could be found through the centuries. This finding could indicate that potential future warming could result in an earlier onset of phenological springs (i.e. as experienced by the plants), with a remaining possibility of late phenological springs. To conclude, it was shown that the indices are reliable biometeorological indicators of the April through June temperature variations and thus of the climate variability in the region.

Causes and consequences of past and projected Scandinavian summer temperatures, 500-2100 AD.

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483-2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June-August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years.

Food availability at birth limited reproductive success in historical humans.

Environmental conditions in early life can profoundly affect individual development and have consequences for reproductive success. Limited food availability may be one of the reasons for this, but direct evidence linking variation in early-life nutrition to reproductive performance in adulthood in natural populations is sparse. We combined historical agricultural data with detailed demographic church records to investigate the effect of food availability around the time of birth on the reproductive success of 927 men and women born in 18th-century Finland. Our study population exhibits natural mortality and fertility rates typical of many preindustrial societies, and individuals experienced differing access to resources due to social stratification. We found that among both men and women born into landless families (i.e., with low access to resources), marital prospects, probability of reproduction, and offspring viability were all positively related to local crop yield during the birth year. Such effects were generally absent among those born into landowning families. Among landless individuals born when yields of the two main crops, rye and barley, were both below median, only 50% of adult males and 55% of adult females gained any reproductive success in their lifetime, whereas 97% and 95% of those born when both yields were above the median did so. Our results suggest that maternal investment in offspring in prenatal or early postnatal life may have profound implications for the evolutionary fitness of human offspring, particularly among those for which resources are more limiting. Our study adds support to the idea that early nutrition can limit reproductive success in natural animal populations, and provides the most direct evidence to date that this process applies to humans.

Evolutionary ecology of human birth sex ratio under the compound influence of climate change, famine, economic crises and wars.

1. Human sex ratio at birth at the population level has been suggested to vary according to exogenous stressors such as wars, ambient temperature, ecological disasters and economic crises, but their relative effects on birth sex ratio have not been investigated. It also remains unclear whether such associations represent environmental forcing or adaptive parental response, as parents may produce the sex that has better survival prospects and fitness in a given environmental challenge. 2. We examined the simultaneous role of wars, famine, ambient temperature, economic development and total mortality rate on the annual variation of offspring birth sex ratio and whether this variation, in turn, was related to sex-specific infant mortality rate in Finland during 1865-2003. 3. Our findings show an increased excess of male births during the World War II and during warm years. Instead, economic development, famine, short-lasting Finnish civil war and total mortality rate were not related to birth sex ratio. Moreover, we found no association between annual birth sex ratio and sex-biased infant mortality rate among the concurrent cohort. 4. Our results propose that some exogenous challenges like ambient temperature and war can skew human birth sex ratio and that these deviations likely represent environmental forcing rather than adaptive parental response to such challenges.

Temperature-related birth sex ratio bias in historical Sami: warm years bring more sons.

The birth sex ratio of vertebrates with chromosomal sex determination has been shown to respond to environmental variability, such as temperature. However, in humans the few previous studies on environmental temperature and birth sex ratios have produced mixed results. We examined whether reconstructed annual mean temperatures were associated with annual offspring sex ratio at birth in the eighteenth to nineteenth century Sami from northern Finland. We found that warm years correlated with a male-biased sex ratio, whereas a warm previous year skewed sex ratio towards females. The net effect of one degree Celsius increase in mean temperature during these 2 years corresponded to approximately 1% more sons born annually. Although the physiological and ecological mechanisms mediating these effects and their evolutionary consequences on parental fitness remain unknown, our results show that environmental temperature may affect human birth sex ratio.

Climatic variability and the population dynamics of historical hunter-gatherers: the case of Sami of Northern Finland.

Our current knowledge on climate-mediated effects on human population dynamics is based on preindustrial agrarian societies where climate-induced crop failures had a major impact on fertility and mortality rates. However, because most of the human evolutionary history has been shaped by hunter-gatherer lifestyle relying on diverse plant and animal food sources, it is also important to understand how climate affected the population dynamics of hunter-gatherers. We thus studied whether climate, measured as a reconstructed annual mean temperature, had concurrent or delayed effects on the key components of population dynamics, annual births and deaths, in three historical (1722-1850) Sami populations of Northern Finland that depended mainly on fishing, hunting, and reindeer herding for their livelihood. We found only weak concurrent effects of mean temperature on annual births and deaths, although in general warm years correlated with increased birth and reduced mortality rates. Likewise, temperature-mediated delayed effects were mainly absent: in one population only, a warm previous year tended to reduce the number of births. By contrast, annual numbers of births and deaths were more closely associated, as indicated by negative correlations between births and deaths up to three previous years. To summarize, in contrast to historical agrarian societies, the population dynamics of historical Sami seemed to be only weakly associated with annual mean temperature, which may indicate that these populations, probably due to their dietary breadth, were rather unaffected by climatic variation.