Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario.

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.

Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.

The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945-2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011-2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from (137)Cs data for the period 1945-2010. Calculated concentrations of (137)Cs in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y(-1) is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of (137)Cs for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 µSv y(-1). Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a factor of 6 in comparison with 2010.

Computerised Decision Support Systems for the management of freshwater radioecological emergencies: assessment of the state-of-the-art with respect to the experiences and needs of end-users.

Assessment of the environmental and radiological consequences of a nuclear accident requires the management of a great deal of data and information as well as the use of predictive models. Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) are essential tools for this kind of complex assessment and for assisting experts with a rational decision process. The present work focuses on the assessment of the main features of selected state-of-the-art CDSS for off-site management of freshwater ecosystems contaminated by radionuclides. This study involved both developers and end-users of the assessed CDSS and was based on practical customisation exercises, installation and application of the decision systems. Potential end-users can benefit from the availability of several ready-to-use CDSS that allow one to run different kinds of models aimed at predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in aquatic ecosystems, evaluating doses to humans, assessing the effectiveness of different kinds of environmental management interventions and ranking these interventions, accounting for their social, economic and environmental impacts. As a result of the present assessment, the importance of CDSS "integration" became apparent: in many circumstances, different CDSS can be used as complementary tools for the decision-making process. The results of this assessment can also be useful for the future development and improvement of the CDSS.

An international model validation exercise on radionuclide transfer and doses to freshwater biota.

Under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) programme, activity concentrations of (60)Co, (90)Sr, (137)Cs and (3)H in Perch Lake at Atomic Energy of Canada Limited's Chalk River Laboratories site were predicted, in freshwater primary producers, invertebrates, fishes, herpetofauna and mammals using eleven modelling approaches. Comparison of predicted radionuclide concentrations in the different species types with measured values highlighted a number of areas where additional work and understanding is required to improve the predictions of radionuclide transfer. For some species, the differences could be explained by ecological factors such as trophic level or the influence of stable analogues. Model predictions were relatively poor for mammalian species and herpetofauna compared with measured values, partly due to a lack of relevant data. In addition, concentration ratios are sometimes under-predicted when derived from experiments performed under controlled laboratory conditions representative of conditions in other water bodies.

Is there a need for hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies.

This paper discusses the role of hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies. In particular, most recent developments such as, the radionuclide transport models integrated in to the decision support system RODOS will be explored. Recent progress in the implementation of physically-based distributed hydrological models for operational forecasting in national and supranational centres, may support a closer cooperation between national hydrological services and therefore, strengthen the use of hydrological and radiological models implemented in decision support systems.

POSEIDON/RODOS models for radiological assessment of marine environment after accidental releases: application to coastal areas of the Baltic, Black and North Seas.

In the framework of the developments of the European system RODOS (Real-time On-line DecisiOn support System) for emergency response to nuclear accident, the computer code POSEIDON, that was developed to assess the radiological consequences of radioactive releases into marine environment, was adapted to cope with emergency conditions, in situations of radioactive discharges into the oceans from direct deposition from the atmosphere, sunken ships and containers, from discharges of rivers and estuaries and from coastal run-off. Based on the box model developed within the 'Marina' project, POSEIDON can calculate the dose effects from radionuclide releases in the coastal waters of Europe integrated over long time periods. A dynamic food chain model was implemented to deal with the short-term dynamical uptake of radioactivity by specific marine plants and organisms. POSEIDON has been installed on a UNIX platform to be fully compatible with RODOS input/output databases and on a Windows platform with an interface based on web technology. The 3D hydrodynamic model THREETOX is a part of the POSEIDON/RODOS system. It has been applied to coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the North Sea. to derive the parameters for a flexible system of well-defined model compartments to be adapted to emergency conditions. The activity concentrations in water and in the marine food web were calculated by means of POSEIDON for radioactive fallout resulting from bomb testing, from the Chernobyl accident, and from routine discharges from nuclear facilities. POSEIDON's model results were compared with measurement data, and with calculation results from THREETOX. The model results agreed with the measurement data sufficiently.

Benchmarking of numerical models describing the dispersion of radionuclides in the Arctic Seas.

As part of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a working group was created to model the dispersal and transfer of radionuclides released from radioactive waste disposed of in the Kara Sea. The objectives of this group are: (1) development of realistic and reliable assessment models for the dispersal of radioactive contaminants both within, and from, the Arctic ocean; and (2) evaluation of the contributions of different transfer mechanisms to contaminant dispersal and hence, ultimately, to the risks to human health and environment. With regard to the first objective, the modelling work has been directed towards assessment of model reliability and asone aspect of this, a benchmarking exercise has been carried out. This paper briefly describes the benchmark scenario, the models developed and used, and discusses some of the benchmarking results. The role of the exercise within the modelling programme of IASAP will be discussed and future work described.