Vulnerability of the North Water ecosystem to climate change.

High Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world's northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400-4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200-1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk.

Coupled impacts of sea ice variability and North Pacific atmospheric circulation on Holocene hydroclimate in Arctic Alaska.

Arctic Alaska lies at a climatological crossroads between the Arctic and North Pacific Oceans. The modern hydroclimate of the region is responding to rapidly diminishing sea ice, driven in part by changes in heat flux from the North Pacific. Paleoclimate reconstructions have improved our knowledge of Alaska's hydroclimate, but no studies have examined Holocene sea ice, moisture, and ocean-atmosphere circulation in Arctic Alaska, limiting our understanding of the relationship between these phenomena in the past. Here we present a sedimentary diatom assemblage and diatom isotope dataset from Schrader Pond, located ∼80 km from the Arctic Ocean, which we interpret alongside synthesized regional records of Holocene hydroclimate and sea ice reduction scenarios modeled by the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3). The paleodata synthesis and model simulations suggest the Early and Middle Holocene in Arctic Alaska were characterized by less sea ice, a greater contribution of isotopically heavy Arctic-derived moisture, and wetter climate. In the Late Holocene, sea ice expanded and regional climate became drier. This climatic transition is coincident with a documented shift in North Pacific circulation involving the Aleutian Low at ∼4 ka, suggesting a Holocene teleconnection between the North Pacific and Arctic. The HadCM3 simulations reveal that reduced sea ice leads to a strengthened Aleutian Low shifted west, potentially increasing transport of warm North Pacific water to the Arctic through the Bering Strait. Our findings demonstrate the interconnectedness of the Arctic and North Pacific on multimillennial timescales, and are consistent with future projections of less sea ice and more precipitation in Arctic Alaska.

Human settlement of East Polynesia earlier, incremental, and coincident with prolonged South Pacific drought.

The timing of human colonization of East Polynesia, a vast area lying between Hawai'i, Rapa Nui, and New Zealand, is much debated and the underlying causes of this great migration have been enigmatic. Our study generates evidence for human dispersal into eastern Polynesia from islands to the west from around AD 900 and contemporaneous paleoclimate data from the likely source region. Lake cores from Atiu, Southern Cook Islands (SCIs) register evidence of pig and/or human occupation on a virgin landscape at this time, followed by changes in lake carbon around AD 1000 and significant anthropogenic disturbance from c. AD 1100. The broader paleoclimate context of these early voyages of exploration are derived from the Atiu lake core and complemented by additional lake cores from Samoa (directly west) and Vanuatu (southwest) and published hydroclimate proxies from the Society Islands (northeast) and Kiribati (north). Algal lipid and leaf wax biomarkers allow for comparisons of changing hydroclimate conditions across the region before, during, and after human arrival in the SCIs. The evidence indicates a prolonged drought in the likely western source region for these colonists, lasting c. 200 to 400 y, contemporaneous with the phasing of human dispersal into the Pacific. We propose that drying climate, coupled with documented social pressures and societal developments, instigated initial eastward exploration, resulting in SCI landfall(s) and return voyaging, with colonization a century or two later. This incremental settlement process likely involved the accumulation of critical maritime knowledge over several generations.

C mobilisation in disturbed tropical peat swamps: old DOC can fuel the fluvial efflux of old carbon dioxide, but site recovery can occur.

Southeast-Asian peat swamp forests have been significantly logged and converted to plantation. Recently, to mitigate land degradation and C losses, some areas have been left to regenerate. Understanding how such complex land use change affects greenhouse gas emissions is essential for modelling climate feedbacks and supporting land management decisions. We carried out field research in a Malaysian swamp forest and an oil palm plantation to understand how clear-felling, drainage, and illegal and authorized conversion to oil palm impacted the C cycle, and how the C cycle may change if such logging and conversion stopped. We found that both the swamp forest and the plantation emit centuries-old CO2 from their drainage systems in the managed areas, releasing sequestered C to the atmosphere. Oil palm plantations are an iconic symbol of tropical peatland degradation, but CO2 efflux from the recently-burnt, cleared swamp forest was as old as from the oil palm plantation. However, in the swamp forest site, where logging had ceased approximately 30 years ago, the age of the CO2 efflux was modern, indicating recovery of the system can occur. 14C dating of the C pool acted as a tracer of recovery as well as degradation and offers a new tool to assess efficacy of restoration management. Methane was present in many sites, and in higher concentrations in slow-flowing anoxic systems as degassing mechanisms are not strong. Methane loading in freshwaters is rarely considered, but this may be an important C pool in restored drainage channels and should be considered in C budgets and losses.

Carbon isotope discrimination in leaves of the broad-leaved paperbark tree, Melaleuca quinquenervia, as a tool for quantifying past tropical and subtropical rainfall.

Quantitative reconstructions of terrestrial climate are highly sought after but rare, particularly in Australia. Carbon isotope discrimination in plant leaves (Δleaf ) is an established indicator of past hydroclimate because the fractionation of carbon isotopes during photosynthesis is strongly influenced by water stress. Leaves of the evergreen tree Melaleuca quinquenervia have been recovered from the sediments of some perched lakes on North Stradbroke and Fraser Islands, south-east Queensland, eastern Australia. Here, we examine the potential for using M. quinquenervia ∆leaf as a tracer of past rainfall by analysing carbon isotope ratios (δ(13) C) of modern leaves. We firstly assess Δleaf variation at the leaf and stand scale and find no systematic pattern within leaves or between leaves due to their position on the tree. We then examine the relationships between climate and Δleaf for a 11-year time series of leaves collected in a litter tray. M. quinquenervia retains its leaves for 1-4 years; thus, cumulative average climate data are used. There is a significant relationship between annual mean ∆leaf and mean annual rainfall of the hydrological year for 1-4 years (i.e. 365-1460 days) prior to leaf fall (r(2)  = 0.64, P = 0.003, n = 11). This relationship is marginally improved by accounting for the effect of pCO2 on discrimination (r(2)  = 0.67, P = 0.002, n = 11). The correlation between rainfall and Δleaf , and the natural distribution of Melaleuca quinquenervia around wetlands of eastern Australia, Papua New Guinea and New Caledonia offers significant potential to infer past rainfall on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

TBT causes regime shift in shallow lakes.

Tributyltin (TBT) is an organotin compound used since the early 1960s as a biocide in boat antifouling paints. Its use has been linked to a host of negative effects in marine ecosystems including malformations and imposex in Mollusca and acute toxicity in many other aquatic animals. Yet, the consequences of TBT use in freshwaters are largely unknown. Here, for the first time we reveal that TBT may have caused hitherto unsuspected damage to freshwater ecosystems. Through an analysis of dated sediment cores collected from a system of recreationally boated, shallow lakes, we show that first evidence of TBT is associated with a dramatic loss of submerged vegetation and associated diverse animal communities. Cause and effect are difficult to unravel in our study. However, we hypothesize that TBT, through reducing populations of grazing organisms in lakes already affected by eutrophication, promoted the replacement of macrophytes by phytoplankton, ultimately leading to a regime shift in the ecosystem. Our findings may have parallels in freshwater ecosystems all over the world.