Benefits and risks of clofarabine in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia investigated in depth by multi-state modeling.

BACKGROUND: We recently reported results of the prospective, open-label HOVON-100 trial in 334 adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) randomized to first-line treatment with or without clofarabine (CLO). No improvement of event-free survival (EFS) was observed, while a higher proportion of patients receiving CLO obtained minimal residual disease (MRD) negativity. AIM: In order to investigate the effects of CLO in more depth, two multi-state models were developed to identify why CLO did not show a long-term survival benefit despite more MRD-negativity. METHODS: The first model evaluated the effect of CLO on going off-protocol (not due to refractory disease/relapse, completion or death) as a proxy of severe treatment-related toxicity, while the second model evaluated the effect of CLO on obtaining MRD negativity. The subsequent impact of these intermediate events on death or relapsed/refractory disease was assessed in both models. RESULTS: Overall, patients receiving CLO went off-protocol more frequently than control patients (35/168 [21%] vs. 18/166 [11%], p = 0.019; HR 2.00 [1.13-3.52], p = 0.02), especially during maintenance (13/44 [30%] vs. 6/56 [11%]; HR 2.85 [95%CI 1.08-7.50], p = 0.035). Going off-protocol was, however, not associated with more relapse or death. Patients in the CLO arm showed a trend towards an increased rate of MRD-negativity compared with control patients (HR MRD-negativity: 1.35 [0.95-1.91], p = 0.10), which did not translate into a significant survival benefit. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the intermediate states, i.e., going off-protocol and MRD-negativity, were affected by adding CLO, but these transitions were not associated with subsequent survival estimates, suggesting relatively modest antileukemic activity in ALL.

Prediction of Nonrelapse Mortality in Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia and Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Receiving Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation With Posttransplantation Cyclophosphamide-based Graft Versus Host Disease Prophylaxis.

Graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis with posttransplantation cyclophosphamide (PTCY) has been established to reduce severe GVHD, and thereby potentially reducing nonrelapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT). We evaluated the predictive capacity of established NRM-risk scores in patients receiving PTCY-based GVHD prophylaxis, and subsequently developed and validated a novel PTCY-specific NRM-risk model. Adult patients (n = 1861) with AML or ALL in first complete remission who received alloSCT with PTCY-based GVHD prophylaxis were included. The PTCY-risk score was developed using multivariable Fine and Gray regression, selecting parameters from the hematopoietic cell transplantation-comorbidity index (HCT-CI) and European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) score with a subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) of ≥1.2 for 2-year NRM in the training set (70% split), which was validated in the test set (30%). The performance of the EBMT score, HCT-CI, and integrated EBMT score was relatively poor for discriminating 2-year NRM (c-statistic 51.7%, 56.6%, and 59.2%, respectively). The PTCY-risk score included 10 variables which were collapsed in 3 risk groups estimating 2-year NRM of 11% ± 2%, 19% ± 2%, and 36% ± 3% (training set, c-statistic 64%), and 11% ± 2%, 18% ± 3%, and 31% ± 5% (test set, c-statistic 63%), which also translated into different overall survival. Collectively, we developed an NRM-risk score for acute leukemia patients receiving PTCY that better predicted 2-year NRM compared with existing models, which might be applicable to the specific toxicities of high-dose cyclophosphamide.