Predicting the risk of malaria re-introduction in countries certified malaria-free: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Predicting the risk of malaria in countries certified malaria-free is crucial for the prevention of re-introduction. This review aimed to identify and describe existing prediction models for malaria re-introduction risk in eliminated settings. METHODS: A systematic literature search following the PRISMA guidelines was carried out. Studies that developed or validated a malaria risk prediction model in eliminated settings were included. At least two authors independently extracted data using a pre-defined checklist developed by experts in the field. The risk of bias was assessed using both the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) and the adapted Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (aNOS). RESULTS: A total 10,075 references were screened and 10 articles describing 11 malaria re-introduction risk prediction models in 6 countries certified malaria free. Three-fifths of the included prediction models were developed for the European region. Identified parameters predicting malaria re-introduction risk included environmental and meteorological, vectorial, population migration, and surveillance and response related factors. Substantial heterogeneity in predictors was observed among the models. All studies were rated at a high risk of bias by PROBAST, mostly because of a lack of internal and external validation of the models. Some studies were rated at a low risk of bias by the aNOS scale. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria re-introduction risk remains substantial in many countries that have eliminated malaria. Multiple factors were identified which could predict malaria risk in eliminated settings. Although the population movement is well acknowledged as a risk factor associated with the malaria re-introduction risk in eliminated settings, it is not frequently incorporated in the risk prediction models. This review indicated that the proposed models were generally poorly validated. Therefore, future emphasis should be first placed on the validation of existing models.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on general health and malaria control in Ghana: a qualitative study with mothers and health care professionals.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has severely impacted health systems and the management of non-COVID-19 diseases, including malaria, globally. The pandemic has hit sub-Saharan Africa less than expected; even considering large underreporting, the direct COVID-19 burden was minor compared to the Global North. However, the indirect effects of the pandemic, e.g. on socio-economic inequality and health care systems, may have been more disruptive. Following a quantitative analysis from northern Ghana, which showed significant reductions in overall outpatient department visits and malaria cases during the first year of COVID-19, this qualitative study aims to provide further explanations to those quantitative findings. METHODS: In the Northern Region of Ghana, 72 participants, consisting of 18 health care professionals (HCPs) and 54 mothers of children under the age of five, were recruited in urban and rural districts. Data were collected using focus group discussions with mothers and through key informant interviews with HCPs. RESULTS: Three main themes occurred. The first theme-general effects of the pandemic-includes impacts on finances, food security, health service provision as well as education and hygiene. Many women lost their jobs, which increased their dependance on males, children had to drop out of school, and families had to cope with food shortages and were considering migration. HCPs had problems reaching the communities, suffered stigmatisation and were often barely protected against the virus. The second theme-effects on health-seeking-includes fear of infection, lack of COVID-19 testing capacities, and reduced access to clinics and treatment. The third theme-effects on malaria-includes disruptions of malaria preventive measures. Clinical discrimination between malaria and COVID-19 symptoms was difficult and HCPs observed increases in severe malaria cases in health facilities due to late reporting. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had large collateral impacts on mothers, children and HCPs. In addition to overall negative effects on families and communities, access to and quality of health services was severely impaired, including serious implications on malaria. This crisis has highlighted weaknesses of health care systems globally, including the malaria situation; a holistic analysis of the direct and indirect effects of this pandemic and an adapted strengthening of health care systems is essential to be prepared for the future.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria cases in health facilities in northern Ghana: a retrospective analysis of routine surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and its collateral damage severely impact health systems globally and risk to worsen the malaria situation in endemic countries. Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Ghana. This study aims to describe the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria cases observed in health facilities in the Northern Region of Ghana. METHODS: Monthly routine data from the District Health Information Management System II (DHIMS2) of the Northern Region of Ghana were analysed. Overall outpatient department visits (OPD) and malaria case rates from the years 2015-2019 were compared to the corresponding data of the year 2020. RESULTS: Compared to the corresponding periods of the years 2015-2019, overall visits and malaria cases in paediatric and adult OPDs in northern Ghana decreased in March and April 2020, when major movement and social restrictions were implemented in response to the pandemic. Cases slightly rebounded afterwards in 2020, but stayed below the average of the previous years. Malaria data from inpatient departments showed a similar but more pronounced trend when compared to OPDs. In pregnant women, however, malaria cases in OPDs increased after the first COVID-19 wave. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study show that the COVID-19 pandemic affects the malaria burden in health facilities of northern Ghana, with declines in inpatient and outpatient rates except for pregnant women. They may have experienced reduced access to insecticide-treated nets and intermittent preventive malaria treatment in pregnancy, resulting in subsequent higher malaria morbidity. Further data, particularly from community-based studies and ideally complemented by qualitative research, are needed to fully determine the impact of the pandemic on the malaria situation in Africa.

Barriers to seeking health care among returning travellers with malaria: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To identify barriers to seeking health care among returning travellers with malaria with the aim of developing targeted interventions that improve early health care-seeking behaviour, diagnosis and treatment. METHODS: Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we conducted a systematic review of published medical literature, selecting studies that investigated and reported barriers to seeking health care among returning travellers and migrants with malaria. In total, 633 articles were screened, of which four studies met the inclusion criteria after a full-text review. RESULTS: The four studies reported barriers to seeking healthcare among returning travellers in China, the United States, Thailand and the Dominican Republic. Three studies had an observational design. The identified barriers were summarised based on the appraisal delay, illness delay and utilisation delay stages. During appraisal delays, low awareness of malaria was the most significant factor. Once the patient assessed that he or she was ill, belonging to a specific minority ethnicity, being infected with P. vivax and receiving a low level of social support were predictors of delayed health care-seeking. Finally, the most significant factor associated with utilisation delays was the monetary cost. CONCLUSION: The health care-seeking behaviour of returning travellers with malaria should be further investigated and improved. Addressing the identified barriers and gaps in health care-seeking behaviour among returning travellers with malaria, particularly among groups at high risk of travel-associated infections, is important to prevent severe disease and deaths as well as secondary transmission and epidemics.

Public health-relevant consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented challenges to health systems worldwide, including the control of non-COVID-19 diseases. Malaria cases and deaths may increase due to the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic in malaria-endemic countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This scoping review aims to summarize information on public health-relevant effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the malaria situation in SSA. METHODS: Review of publications and manuscripts on preprint servers, in peer-reviewed journals and in grey literature documents from 1 December, 2019 to 9 June, 2021. A structured search was conducted on different databases using predefined eligibility criteria for the selection of articles. RESULTS: A total of 51 papers have been included in the analysis. Modelling papers have predicted a significant increase in malaria cases and malaria deaths in SSA due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many papers provided potential explanations for expected COVID-19 effects on the malaria burden; these ranged from relevant diagnostical and clinical aspects to reduced access to health care services, impaired availability of curative and preventive commodities and medications, and effects on malaria prevention campaigns. Compared to previous years, fewer country reports provided data on the actual number of malaria cases and deaths in 2020, with mixed results. While highly endemic countries reported evidence of decreased malaria cases in health facilities, low endemic countries reported overall higher numbers of malaria cases and deaths in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this review provide evidence for a significant but diverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria in SSA. There is the need to further investigate the public health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the malaria burden. Protocol registered on Open Science Framework: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/STQ9D.

Field evaluation of specificity and sensitivity of a standard SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid diagnostic test: A prospective study at a teaching hospital in Northern Ghana.

The testing capacity for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa is rather limited. Antigen detection rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) are a cheap and rapid alternative to reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests, but there is little data about their performance under real life conditions in tropical countries. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of a standard Ag-RDT in a population of a major hospital in northern Ghana. Prospective, cross-sectional, blinded verification of the performance of the SD Biosensor Standard Q SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT under real life conditions in 135 symptomatic patients and 58 contacts of RT-PCR positives at Tamale Teaching Hospital in February 2021. Nasopharyngeal samples were taken under standard conditions and tested against RT-PCR in the hospital laboratory. 193 participants (median age 35 years, 109 male) were included into the study for which both RT-PCR test and Ag-RDT results were available. A total of 42 (22%) were RT-PCR positive. Of the 42 RT-PCR positives, 27 were Ag-RDT positive, resulting in a sensitivity of 64% (95% CI 49-79). Sensitivity among symptomatic patients was 58% (95% CI 38-78). 123 were identified Ag-RDT negatives of the 151 RT-PCR negatives, resulting in a specificity of 81% (95% CI 75-87). SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDTs appear to have a rather low sensitivity and particularly a low specificity under real life conditions in Africa. The role of existing Ag-RDTs in countries with high-temperature climates and limited resources still needs more data and discussion.