The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP.

Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

Reductions in NO2 burden over north equatorial Africa from decline in biomass burning in spite of growing fossil fuel use, 2005 to 2017.

Socioeconomic development in low- and middle-income countries has been accompanied by increased emissions of air pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides [NOx: nitrogen dioxide (NO2) + nitric oxide (NO)], which affect human health. In sub-Saharan Africa, fossil fuel combustion has nearly doubled since 2000. At the same time, landscape biomass burning-another important NOx source-has declined in north equatorial Africa, attributed to changes in climate and anthropogenic fire management. Here, we use satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) and burned area to identify NO2 trends and drivers over Africa. Across the northern ecosystems where biomass burning occurs-home to hundreds of millions of people-mean annual tropospheric NO2 VCDs decreased by 4.5% from 2005 through 2017 during the dry season of November through February. Reductions in burned area explained the majority of variation in NO2 VCDs, though changes in fossil fuel emissions also explained some variation. Over Africa's biomass burning regions, raising mean GDP density (USD⋅km-2) above its lowest levels is associated with lower NO2 VCDs during the dry season, suggesting that economic development mitigates net NO2 emissions during these highly polluted months. In contrast to the traditional notion that socioeconomic development increases air pollutant concentrations in low- and middle-income nations, our results suggest that countries in Africa's northern biomass-burning region are following a different pathway during the fire season, resulting in potential air quality benefits. However, these benefits may be lost with increasing fossil fuel use and are absent during the rainy season.

Meta-analysis on the potential for increasing nitrogen losses from intensifying tropical agriculture.

Fertilized temperate croplands export large amounts of reactive nitrogen (N), which degrades water and air quality and contributes to climate change. Fertilizer use is poised to increase in the tropics, where widespread food insecurity persists and increased agricultural productivity will be needed, but much less is known about the potential consequences of increased tropical N fertilizer application. We conducted a meta-analysis of tropical field studies of nitrate leaching, nitrous oxide emissions, nitric oxide emissions, and ammonia volatilization totaling more than 1,000 observations. We found that the relationship between N inputs and losses differed little between temperate and tropical croplands, although total nitric oxide losses were higher in the tropics. Among the potential drivers we studied, the N input rate controlled all N losses, but soil texture and water inputs also controlled hydrological N losses. Irrigated systems had significantly higher losses of ammonia, and pasture agroecosystems had higher nitric oxide losses. Tripling of fertilizer N inputs to tropical croplands from 50 to 150 kg N ha-1  year-1 would have substantial environmental implications and would lead to increases in nitrate leaching (+30%), nitrous oxide emissions (+30%), nitric oxide (+66%) emissions, and ammonia volatilization (+74%), bringing tropical agricultural nitrate, nitrous oxide, and ammonia losses in line with temperate losses and raising nitric oxide losses above them.

Nonlinear response of nitric oxide fluxes to fertilizer inputs and the impacts of agricultural intensification on tropospheric ozone pollution in Kenya.

Crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa remain stagnant at 1 ton ha-1 , and 260 million people lack access to adequate food resources. Order-of-magnitude increases in fertilizer use are seen as a critical step in attaining food security. This increase represents an unprecedented input of nitrogen (N) to African ecosystems and will likely be accompanied by increased soil emissions of nitric oxide (NO). NO is a precursor to tropospheric ozone, an air pollutant and greenhouse gas. Emissions of NO from soils occur primarily during denitrification and nitrification, and N input rates are a key determinant of emission rates. We established experimental maize plots in western Kenya to allow us to quantify the response function relating NO flux to N input rate during the main 2011 and 2012 growing seasons. NO emissions followed a sigmoid response to fertilizer inputs and have emission factors under 1% for the roughly two-month measurement period in each year, although linear and step relationships could not be excluded in 2011. At fertilization rates above 100 kg N ha-1 , NO emissions increased without a concomitant increase in yields. We used the geos-chem chemical transport model to evaluate local impacts of increased NO emissions on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Mean 4-hour afternoon tropospheric ozone concentrations in Western Kenya increased by up to roughly 2.63 ppbv under fertilization rates of 150 kg N ha-1 or higher. Using AOT40, a metric for assessing crop damage from ozone, we find that the increased ozone concentrations result in an increase in AOT40 exposure of approximately 110 ppbh for inputs of 150 kg N ha-1 during the March-April-May crop growing season, compared with unfertilized simulations, with negligible impacts on crop productivity. Our results suggest that it may be possible to manage Kenyan agricultural systems for high yields while avoiding substantial impacts on air quality.

The native-invasive balance: implications for nutrient cycling in ecosystems.

We conducted single- and mixed-litter experiments in a hardwood forest in Long Island, New York, using leaf litter from phylogenetically paired native and invasive species. We selected long-established, abundant invasive species with wide-ranging distributions in the eastern United States that likely make substantial contributions to the litter pool of invaded areas. Overall, leaf litter from invasive species differed from native litter, though differences varied by phylogenetic grouping. Invasive litter had lower carbon:nitrogen ratios (30.9 ± 1.96 SE vs. 32.8 ± 1.36, P = 0.034) and invasive species lost 0.03 ± 0.007 g of nitrogen and had 23.4 ± 4.9 % of their starting mass remaining at the end of 1 year compared with a loss of 0.02 ± 0.003 g nitrogen and 31.1 ± 2.6 % mass remaining for native species. Mixing litter from two species did not alter decomposition rates when native species were mixed with other native species, or when invasive species were mixed with other invasive species. However, mixing litter of native and invasive species resulted in significantly less mass and nitrogen loss than was seen in unmixed invasive litter. Mixtures of native and invasive litter lost all but 47 ± 2.2 % of initial mass, compared to 37 ± 5.8 % for invasive litter and 50 ± 5.1 % for native litter. This non-additive effect of mixing native and invasive litter suggests that an additive model of metabolic characteristics may not suffice for predicting invasion impacts in a community context, particularly as invasion proceeds over time. Because the more rapid decomposition of invasive litter tends to slow to rates typical of native species when native and invasive litters are mixed together, there may be little impact of invasive species on nutrient cycling early in an invasion, when native leaf litter is abundant (providing litter deposition is the dominant control on nutrient cycling).

Kudzu (Pueraria montana) invasion doubles emissions of nitric oxide and increases ozone pollution.

The nitrogen-fixing legume kudzu (Pueraria montana) is a widespread invasive plant in the southeastern United States with physiological traits that may lead to important impacts on ecosystems and the atmosphere. Its spread has the potential to raise ozone levels in the region by increasing nitric oxide (NO) emissions from soils as a consequence of increasing nitrogen (N) inputs and cycling in soils. We studied the effects of kudzu invasions on soils and trace N gas emissions at three sites in Madison County, Georgia in 2007 and used the results to model the effects of kudzu invasion on regional air quality. We found that rates of net N mineralization increased by up to 1,000%, and net nitrification increased by up to 500% in invaded soils in Georgia. Nitric oxide emissions from invaded soils were more than 100% higher (2.81 vs. 1.24 ng NO-N cm(-2) h(-1)). We used the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to evaluate the potential impact of kudzu invasion on regional atmospheric chemistry and air quality. In an extreme scenario, extensive kudzu invasion leads directly to an increase in the number of high ozone events (above 70 ppb) of up to 7 days each summer in some areas, up from 10 to 20 days in a control scenario with no kudzu invasion. These results establish a quantitative link between a biological invasion and ozone formation and suggest that in this extreme scenario, kudzu invasion can overcome some of the air quality benefits of legislative control.