Emergence of splits and collective turns in pigeon flocks under predation.

Complex patterns of collective behaviour may emerge through self-organization, from local interactions among individuals in a group. To understand what behavioural rules underlie these patterns, computational models are often necessary. These rules have not yet been systematically studied for bird flocks under predation. Here, we study airborne flocks of homing pigeons attacked by a robotic falcon, combining empirical data with a species-specific computational model of collective escape. By analysing GPS trajectories of flocking individuals, we identify two new patterns of collective escape: early splits and collective turns, occurring even at large distances from the predator. To examine their formation, we extend an agent-based model of pigeons with a 'discrete' escape manoeuvre by a single initiator, namely a sudden turn interrupting the continuous coordinated motion of the group. Both splits and collective turns emerge from this rule. Their relative frequency depends on the angular velocity and position of the initiator in the flock: sharp turns by individuals at the periphery lead to more splits than collective turns. We confirm this association in the empirical data. Our study highlights the importance of discrete and uncoordinated manoeuvres in the collective escape of bird flocks and advocates the systematic study of their patterns across species.

Self-organization of collective escape in pigeon flocks.

Bird flocks under predation demonstrate complex patterns of collective escape. These patterns may emerge by self-organization from local interactions among group-members. Computational models have been shown to be valuable for identifying what behavioral rules may govern such interactions among individuals during collective motion. However, our knowledge of such rules for collective escape is limited by the lack of quantitative data on bird flocks under predation in the field. In the present study, we analyze the first GPS trajectories of pigeons in airborne flocks attacked by a robotic falcon in order to build a species-specific model of collective escape. We use our model to examine a recently identified distance-dependent pattern of collective behavior: the closer the prey is to the predator, the higher the frequency with which flock members turn away from it. We first extract from the empirical data of pigeon flocks the characteristics of their shape and internal structure (bearing angle and distance to nearest neighbors). Combining these with information on their coordination from the literature, we build an agent-based model adjusted to pigeons' collective escape. We show that the pattern of turning away from the predator with increased frequency when the predator is closer arises without prey prioritizing escape when the predator is near. Instead, it emerges through self-organization from a behavioral rule to avoid the predator independently of their distance to it. During this self-organization process, we show how flock members increase their consensus over which direction to escape and turn collectively as the predator gets closer. Our results suggest that coordination among flock members, combined with simple escape rules, reduces the cognitive costs of tracking the predator while flocking. Such escape rules that are independent of the distance to the predator can now be investigated in other species. Our study showcases the important role of computational models in the interpretation of empirical findings of collective behavior.

Inferring the Effect of Species Interactions on Trait Evolution.

Models of trait evolution form an important part of macroevolutionary biology. The Brownian motion model and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models have become classic (null) models of character evolution, in which species evolve independently. Recently, models incorporating species interactions have been developed, particularly involving competition where abiotic factors pull species toward an optimal trait value and competitive interactions drive the trait values apart. However, these models assume a fitness function rather than derive it from population dynamics and they do not consider dynamics of the trait variance. Here, we develop a general coherent trait evolution framework where the fitness function is based on a model of population dynamics, and therefore it can, in principle, accommodate any type of species interaction. We illustrate our framework with a model of abundance-dependent competitive interactions against a macroevolutionary background encoded in a phylogenetic tree. We develop an inference tool based on Approximate Bayesian Computation and test it on simulated data (of traits at the tips). We find that inference performs well when the diversity predicted by the parameters equals the number of species in the phylogeny. We then fit the model to empirical data of baleen whale body lengths, using three different summary statistics, and compare it to a model without population dynamics and a model where competition depends on the total metabolic rate of the competitors. We show that the unweighted model performs best for the least informative summary statistic, while the model with competition weighted by the total metabolic rate fits the data slightly better than the other two models for the two more informative summary statistics. Regardless of the summary statistic used, the three models substantially differ in their predictions of the abundance distribution. Therefore, data on abundance distributions will allow us to better distinguish the models from one another, and infer the nature of species interactions. Thus, our framework provides a conceptual approach to reveal species interactions underlying trait evolution and identifies the data needed to do so in practice. [Approximate Bayesian computation; competition; phylogeny; population dynamics; simulations; species interaction; trait evolution.].

The evolution of social philopatry in female primates.

The transition from solitary life to sociality is considered one of the major transitions in evolution. In primates, this transition is currently not well understood. Traditional verbal models appear insufficient to unravel the complex interplay of environmental and demographic factors involved in the evolution of primate sociality, and recent phylogenetic reconstructions have produced conflicting results. We therefore analyze a theoretical model for the evolution of female social philopatry that sheds new light on the question why most primates live in groups. In individual-based simulations, we study the evolution of dispersal strategies of both resident females and their offspring. The model reveals that social philopatry can evolve through kin selection, even if retention of offspring is costly in terms of within-group resource competition and provides no direct benefits. Our model supports the role of predator avoidance as a selective pressure for group-living in primates, but it also suggests that a second benefit of group-living, communal resource defense, might be required to trigger the evolution of sizable groups. Lastly, our model reveals that seemingly small differences in demographic parameters can have profound effects on primate social evolution.

The influence of ecological and geographic limits on the evolution of species distributions and diversity.

The role of ecological limits in regulating the distribution and diversification of species remains controversial. Although such limits must ultimately arise from constraints on local species coexistence, this spatial context is missing from most macroevolutionary models. Here, we develop a stochastic, spatially explicit model of species diversification to explore the phylogenetic and biogeographic patterns expected when local diversity is bounded. We show how local ecological limits, by regulating opportunities for range expansion and thus rates of speciation and extinction, lead to temporal slowdowns in diversification and predictable differences in equilibrium diversity between regions. However, our models also show that even when regions have identical diversity limits, the dynamics of diversification and total number of species supported at equilibrium can vary dramatically depending on the relative size of geographic and local ecological niche space. Our model predicts that small regions with higher local ecological limits support a higher standing diversity and more balanced phylogenetic trees than large geographic areas with more stringent constraints on local coexistence. Our findings highlight how considering the spatial context of diversification can provide new insights into the role of ecological limits in driving variation in biodiversity across space, time, and clades.

Physics-based simulations of aerial attacks by peregrine falcons reveal that stooping at high speed maximizes catch success against agile prey.

The peregrine falcon Falco peregrinus is renowned for attacking its prey from high altitude in a fast controlled dive called a stoop. Many other raptors employ a similar mode of attack, but the functional benefits of stooping remain obscure. Here we investigate whether, when, and why stooping promotes catch success, using a three-dimensional, agent-based modeling approach to simulate attacks of falcons on aerial prey. We simulate avian flapping and gliding flight using an analytical quasi-steady model of the aerodynamic forces and moments, parametrized by empirical measurements of flight morphology. The model-birds' flight control inputs are commanded by their guidance system, comprising a phenomenological model of its vision, guidance, and control. To intercept its prey, model-falcons use the same guidance law as missiles (pure proportional navigation); this assumption is corroborated by empirical data on peregrine falcons hunting lures. We parametrically vary the falcon's starting position relative to its prey, together with the feedback gain of its guidance loop, under differing assumptions regarding its errors and delay in vision and control, and for three different patterns of prey motion. We find that, when the prey maneuvers erratically, high-altitude stoops increase catch success compared to low-altitude attacks, but only if the falcon's guidance law is appropriately tuned, and only given a high degree of precision in vision and control. Remarkably, the optimal tuning of the guidance law in our simulations coincides closely with what has been observed empirically in peregrines. High-altitude stoops are shown to be beneficial because their high airspeed enables production of higher aerodynamic forces for maneuvering, and facilitates higher roll agility as the wings are tucked, each of which is essential to catching maneuvering prey at realistic response delays.

The confusion effect when attacking simulated three-dimensional starling flocks.

The confusion effect describes the phenomenon of decreasing predator attack success with increasing prey group size. However, there is a paucity of research into the influence of this effect in coherent groups, such as flocks of European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Here, for the first time, we use a computer game style experiment to investigate the confusion effect in three dimensions. To date, computerized studies on the confusion effect have used two-dimensional simulations with simplistic prey movement and dynamics. Our experiment is the first investigation of the effects of flock size and density on the ability of a (human) predator to track and capture a target starling in a realistically simulated three-dimensional flock of starlings. In line with the predictions of the confusion effect, modelled starlings appear to be safer from predation in larger and denser flocks. This finding lends credence to previous suggestions that starling flocks have anti-predator benefits and, more generally, it suggests that active increases in density in animal groups in response to predation may increase the effectiveness of the confusion effect.

The effect of ambient temperature, habitat quality and individual age on incubation behaviour and incubation feeding in a socially monogamous songbird.

ABSTRACT: Incubation is an important aspect of avian life history. The behaviour is energetically costly, and investment in incubation strategies within species, like female nest attentiveness and the feeding by the non-incubating partner during incubation, can therefore vary depending on environmental and individual characteristics. However, little is known about the combined effect of these characteristics. We investigated the importance of ambient temperature, habitat quality, and bird age on female incubation behaviour and male feeding of the incubating female (incubation feeding) in blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus, a socially monogamous songbird. An increase in ambient temperature resulted in a higher nest temperature, and this enabled females to increase the time off the nest for self-maintenance activities. Probably as a consequence of this, an increase in ambient temperature was associated with fewer incubation feedings by the male. Moreover, in areas with more food available (more deciduous trees), females had shorter incubation recesses and males fed females less often. Additionally, males fed young females more, presumably to increase such females' investment in their eggs, which were colder on average (despite the length of recesses and female nest attentiveness being independent of female age). Male age did not affect incubation feeding rate. In conclusion, the patterns of incubation behaviour were related to both environmental and individual characteristics, and male incubation feeding was adjusted to females' need for food according these characteristics, which can facilitate new insights to the study of avian incubation energetics. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Parents often invest a substantial amount of energy in raising offspring. How much they do so depends on several environmental factors and on the extent they cooperate to raise the offspring. In birds, males can feed incubating females, which may allow females to stay longer on the nest, which, in turn, may ultimately improve reproductive success. The interplay between environmental factors and such incubation feeding on incubation attendance has, however, received little attention. Here, we show that favourable circumstances (higher ambient temperature and food availability) allowed incubating blue tit females to increase the time off the nest to improve self-maintenance and males to feed them less, whereas males also fed inexperienced partners more often. Thus, we show a concerted effect of several environmental and intrinsic factors on parental effort during incubation, which will help to improve the general understanding of avian incubation and parental care.

What underlies waves of agitation in starling flocks.

Fast transfer of information in groups can have survival value. An example is the so-called wave of agitation observed in groups of animals of several taxa under attack. It has been shown to reduce predator success. It usually involves the repetition of a manoeuvre throughout the group, transmitting the information of the attack quickly, faster than the group moves itself. The specific manoeuvre underlying a wave is typically known, but not so in starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Although waves of agitation in starling flocks have been suggested to reflect density waves, exact escape manoeuvres cannot be distinguished because flocks are spatially too far away. Therefore, waves may also reflect orientation waves (due to escape by rolling). In the present study, we investigate this issue in a computational model, StarDisplay. We use this model because its flocks have been shown to resemble starling flocks in many traits. In the model, we show that agitation waves result from changes in orientation rather than in density. They resemble empirical data both qualitatively in visual appearance and quantitatively in wave speed. In the model, local interactions with only two to seven closest neighbours suffice to generate empirical wave speed. Wave speed increases with the number of neighbours mimicked or repeated from and the distance to them. It decreases with reaction time and with time to identify the escape manoeuvre of others and is not affected by flock size. Our findings can be used as predictions for empirical studies.

Diffusion and topological neighbours in flocks of starlings: relating a model to empirical data.

Moving in a group while avoiding collisions with group members causes internal dynamics in the group. Although these dynamics have recently been measured quantitatively in starling flocks (Sturnus vulgaris), it is unknown what causes them. Computational models have shown that collective motion in groups is likely due to attraction, avoidance and, possibly, alignment among group members. Empirical studies show that starlings adjust their movement to a fixed number of closest neighbours or topological range, namely 6 or 7 and assume that each of the three activities is done with the same number of neighbours (topological range). Here, we start from the hypothesis that escape behavior is more effective at preventing collisions in a flock when avoiding the single closest neighbor than compromising by avoiding 6 or 7 of them. For alignment and attraction, we keep to the empirical topological range. We investigate how avoiding one or several neighbours affects the internal dynamics of flocks of starlings in our computational model StarDisplay. By comparing to empirical data, we confirm that internal dynamics resemble empirical data more closely if flock members avoid merely their single, closest neighbor. Our model shows that considering a different number of interaction partners per activity represents a useful perspective and that changing a single parameter, namely the number of interaction partners that are avoided, has several effects through selforganisation.

Schools of fish and flocks of birds: their shape and internal structure by self-organization.

Models of self-organization have proved useful in revealing what processes may underlie characteristics of swarms. In this study, we review model-based explanations for aspects of the shape and internal structure of groups of fish and of birds travelling undisturbed (without predator threat). Our models attribute specific collective traits to locomotory properties. Fish slow down to avoid collisions and swim at a constant depth, whereas birds fly at low variability of speed and lose altitude during turning. In both the models of fish and birds, the 'bearing angle' to the nearest neighbour emerges as a side-effect of the 'blind angle' behind individuals and when group size becomes larger, temporary subgroups may increase the complexity of group shape and internal structure. We discuss evidence for model-based predictions and provide a list of new predictions to be tested empirically.

Some causes of the variable shape of flocks of birds.

Flocks of birds are highly variable in shape in all contexts (while travelling, avoiding predation, wheeling above the roost). Particularly amazing in this respect are the aerial displays of huge flocks of starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) above the sleeping site at dawn. The causes of this variability are hardly known, however. Here we hypothesise that variability of shape increases when there are larger local differences in movement behaviour in the flock. We investigate this hypothesis with the help of a model of the self-organisation of travelling groups, called StarDisplay, since such a model has also increased our understanding of what causes the oblong shape of schools of fish. The flocking patterns in the model prove to resemble those of real birds, in particular of starlings and rock doves. As to shape, we measure the relative proportions of the flock in several ways, which either depend on the direction of movement or do not. We confirm that flock shape is usually more variable when local differences in movement in the flock are larger. This happens when a) flock size is larger, b) interacting partners are fewer, c) the flock turnings are stronger, and d) individuals roll into the turn. In contrast to our expectations, when variability of speed in the flock is higher, flock shape and the positions of members in the flock are more static. We explain this and indicate the adaptive value of low variability of speed and spatial restriction of interaction and develop testable hypotheses.

Emergent patterns of social affiliation in primates, a model.

Many patterns of affiliative behaviour have been described for primates, for instance: reciprocation and exchange of grooming, grooming others of similar rank, reconciliation of fights, and preferential reconciliation with more valuable partners. For these patterns several functions and underlying cognitive processes have been suggested. It is, however, difficult to imagine how animals may combine these diverse considerations in their mind. Although the co-variation hypothesis, by limiting the social possibilities an individual has, constrains the number of cognitive considerations an individual has to take, it does not present an integrated theory of affiliative patterns either. In the present paper, after surveying patterns of affiliation in egalitarian and despotic macaques, we use an individual-based model with a high potential for self-organisation as a starting point for such an integrative approach. In our model, called GrooFiWorld, individuals group and, upon meeting each other, may perform a dominance interaction of which the outcomes of winning and losing are self-reinforcing. Besides, if individuals think they will be defeated, they consider grooming others. Here, the greater their anxiety is, the greater their "motivation" to groom others. Our model generates patterns similar to many affiliative patterns of empirical data. By merely increasing the intensity of aggression, affiliative patterns in the model change from those resembling egalitarian macaques to those resembling despotic ones. Our model produces such patterns without assuming in the mind of the individual the specific cognitive processes that are usually thought to underlie these patterns (such as recordkeeping of the acts given and received, a tendency to exchange, memory of the former fight, selective attraction to the former opponent, and estimation of the value of a relationship). Our model can be used as a null model to increase our understanding of affiliative behaviour among primates, in particular macaques.

Cyclic dynamics in simulated plant populations.

Despite the general interest in nonlinear dynamics in animal populations, plant populations are supposed to show a stable equilibrium that is attributed to fundamental differences compared with animals. Some studies find more complex dynamics, but empirical studies usually are too short and most modelling studies ignore important spatial aspects of local competition and establishment. Therefore, we used a spatially explicit individual-based model of a hypothetical, non-clonal perennial to explore which mechanisms might generate complex dynamics, i.e. cycles. The model is based on the field-of-neighbourhood approach that describes local competition and establishment in a phenomenological manner. We found cyclic population dynamics for a wide spectrum of model variants, provided that mortality is determined by local competition and recruitment is virtually completely suppressed within the zone of influence of established plants. This destabilizing effect of local processes within plant populations might have wide-ranging implications for the understanding of plant community dynamics and coexistence.