Correction: Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007096.].

Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic both relied and placed significant burdens on the experts involved from research and public health sectors. The sustained high pressure of a pandemic on responders, such as healthcare workers, can lead to lasting psychological impacts including acute stress disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, burnout, and moral injury, which can impact individual wellbeing and productivity. Methods: As members of the infectious disease modelling community, we convened a reflective workshop to understand the professional and personal impacts of response work on our community and to propose recommendations for future epidemic responses. The attendees represented a range of career stages, institutions, and disciplines. This piece was collectively produced by those present at the session based on our collective experiences. Results: Key issues we identified at the workshop were lack of institutional support, insecure contracts, unequal credit and recognition, and mental health impacts. Our recommendations include rewarding impactful work, fostering academia-public health collaboration, decreasing dependence on key individuals by developing teams, increasing transparency in decision-making, and implementing sustainable work practices. Conclusions: Despite limitations in representation, this workshop provided valuable insights into the UK COVID-19 modelling experience and guidance for future public health crises. Recognising and addressing the issues highlighted is crucial, in our view, for ensuring the effectiveness of epidemic response work in the future.

Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory pathogens inflict a substantial burden on public health and the economy. Although the severity of symptoms caused by these pathogens can vary from asymptomatic to fatal, the factors that determine symptom severity are not fully understood. Correlations in symptoms between infector-infectee pairs, for which evidence is accumulating, can generate large-scale clusters of severe infections that could be devastating to those most at risk, whilst also conceivably leading to chains of mild or asymptomatic infections that generate widespread immunity with minimal cost to public health. Although this effect could be harnessed to amplify the impact of interventions that reduce symptom severity, the mechanistic representation of symptom propagation within mathematical and health economic modelling of respiratory diseases is understudied. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We propose a novel framework for incorporating different levels of symptom propagation into models of infectious disease transmission via a single parameter, α. Varying α tunes the model from having no symptom propagation (α = 0, as typically assumed) to one where symptoms always propagate (α = 1). For parameters corresponding to three respiratory pathogens-seasonal influenza, pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2-we explored how symptom propagation impacted the relative epidemiological and health-economic performance of three interventions, conceptualised as vaccines with different actions: symptom-attenuating (labelled SA), infection-blocking (IB) and infection-blocking admitting only mild breakthrough infections (IB_MB). In the absence of interventions, with fixed underlying epidemiological parameters, stronger symptom propagation increased the proportion of cases that were severe. For SA and IB_MB, interventions were more effective at reducing prevalence (all infections and severe cases) for higher strengths of symptom propagation. For IB, symptom propagation had no impact on effectiveness, and for seasonal influenza this intervention type was more effective than SA at reducing severe infections for all strengths of symptom propagation. For pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2, at low intervention uptake, SA was more effective than IB for all levels of symptom propagation; for high uptake, SA only became more effective under strong symptom propagation. Health economic assessments found that, for SA-type interventions, the amount one could spend on control whilst maintaining a cost-effective intervention (termed threshold unit intervention cost) was very sensitive to the strength of symptom propagation. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the preferred intervention type depended on the combination of the strength of symptom propagation and uptake. Given the importance of determining robust public health responses, we highlight the need to gather further data on symptom propagation, with our modelling framework acting as a template for future analysis.

Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model.

Human behaviour is critical to effective responses to livestock disease outbreaks, especially with respect to vaccination uptake. Traditionally, mathematical models used to inform this behaviour have not taken heterogeneity in farmer behaviour into account. We address this by exploring how heterogeneity in farmers vaccination behaviour can be incorporated to inform mathematical models. We developed and used a graphical user interface to elicit farmers (n = 60) vaccination decisions to an unfolding fast-spreading epidemic and linked this to their psychosocial and behavioural profiles. We identified, via cluster analysis, robust patterns of heterogeneity in vaccination behaviour. By incorporating these vaccination behavioural groupings into a mathematical model for a fast-spreading livestock infection, using computational simulation we explored how the inclusion of heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour may impact epidemiological and economic focused outcomes. When assuming homogeneity in farmer behaviour versus configurations informed by the psychosocial profile cluster estimates, the modelled scenarios revealed a disconnect in projected distributions and threshold statistics across outbreak size, outbreak duration and economic metrics.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant and Effect of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions, British Columbia, Canada.

In British Columbia, Canada, initial growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was slower than that reported in other jurisdictions. Delta became the dominant variant (>50% prevalence) within ≈7-13 weeks of first detection in regions within the United Kingdom and United States. In British Columbia, it remained at <10% of weekly incident COVID-19 cases for 13 weeks after first detection on March 21, 2021, eventually reaching dominance after 17 weeks. We describe the growth of Delta variant cases in British Columbia during March 1-June 30, 2021, and apply retrospective counterfactual modeling to examine factors for the initially low COVID-19 case rate after Delta introduction, such as vaccination coverage and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Growth of COVID-19 cases in the first 3 months after Delta emergence was likely limited in British Columbia because additional nonpharmaceutical interventions were implemented to reduce levels of contact at the end of March 2021, soon after variant emergence.

The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England.

In late 2020, the JCVI (the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, which provides advice to the Department of Health and Social Care, England) made two important recommendations for the initial roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine. The first was that vaccines should be targeted to older and vulnerable people, with the aim of maximally preventing disease rather than infection. The second was to increase the interval between first and second doses from 3 to 12 weeks. Here, we re-examine these recommendations through a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England. We show that targeting the most vulnerable had the biggest immediate impact (compared to targeting younger individuals who may be more responsible for transmission). The 12-week delay was also highly beneficial, estimated to have averted between 32-72 thousand hospital admissions and 4-9 thousand deaths over the first ten months of the campaign (December 2020-September 2021) depending on the assumed interaction between dose interval and efficacy.

Coughs, colds and "freshers' flu" survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007-2008.

Universities provide many opportunities for the spread of infectious respiratory illnesses. Students are brought together into close proximity from all across the world and interact with one another in their accommodation, through lectures and small group teaching and in social settings. The COVID-19 global pandemic has highlighted the need for sufficient data to help determine which of these factors are important for infectious disease transmission in universities and hence control university morbidity as well as community spillover. We describe the data from a previously unpublished self-reported university survey of coughs, colds and influenza-like symptoms collected in Cambridge, UK, during winter 2007-2008. The online survey collected information on symptoms and socio-demographic, academic and lifestyle factors. There were 1076 responses, 97% from University of Cambridge students (5.7% of the total university student population), 3% from staff and <1% from other participants, reporting onset of symptoms between September 2007 and March 2008. Undergraduates are seen to report symptoms earlier in the term than postgraduates; differences in reported date of symptoms are also seen between subjects and accommodation types, although these descriptive results could be confounded by survey biases. Despite the historical and exploratory nature of the study, this is one of few recent detailed datasets of influenza-like infection in a university context and is especially valuable to share now to improve understanding of potential transmission dynamics in universities during the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Modelling the epidemiological implications for SARS-CoV-2 of Christmas household bubbles in England.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 saw severe detriments to public health being inflicted by COVID-19 disease throughout 2020. In the lead up to Christmas 2020, the UK Government sought an easement of social restrictions that would permit spending time with others over the Christmas period, whilst limiting the risk of spreading SARS-CoV-2. In November 2020, plans were published to allow individuals to socialise within 'Christmas bubbles' with friends and family. This policy involved a planned easing of restrictions in England between 23-27 December 2020, with Christmas bubbles allowing people from up to three households to meet throughout the holiday period. We estimated the epidemiological impact of both this and alternative bubble strategies that allowed extending contacts beyond the immediate household. We used a stochastic individual-based model for a synthetic population of 100,000 households, with demographic and SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological characteristics comparable to England as of November 2020. We evaluated five Christmas bubble scenarios for the period 23-27 December 2020, assuming our populations of households did not have symptomatic infection present and were not in isolation as the eased social restrictions began. Assessment comprised incidence and cumulative infection metrics. We tested the sensitivity of the results to a situation where it was possible for households to be in isolation at the beginning of the Christmas bubble period and also when there was lower adherence to testing, contact tracing and isolation interventions. We found that visiting family and friends over the holiday period for a shorter duration and in smaller groups was less risky than spending the entire five days together. The increases in infection from greater amounts of social mixing disproportionately impacted the eldest. We provide this account as an illustration of a real-time contribution of modelling insights to a scientific advisory group, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) in the UK, during the COVID-19 pandemic. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Association of type 1 diabetes and age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes with brain volume and risk of dementia in the UK Biobank: A prospective cohort study of community-dwelling participants.

AIMS: To investigate the association of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) with brain structure and incident dementia. METHODS: Our analysis was based on the UK Biobank. We included 1376 participants with diabetes and 2752 randomly selected controls for brain volume analysis, and 25,141 participants with diabetes and 50,282 randomly selected controls for dementia analysis. Brain volume was measured using magnetic resonance imaging. Dementia was identified using hospital inpatient records and mortality register data until January 2021. RESULTS: T2D diagnosed at a younger age was associated with larger reductions in brain volume. After adjustment for glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and other covariates, only T2D diagnosed <50 years was associated with smaller total brain volume (ß (95% CI): -14.56 (-24.67, -4.44) ml), and grey (-6.47[-12.75, -0.20] ml) and white matter volumes (-8.08[-14.66, -1.51] ml). Corresponding numbers for total brain, grey matter and white matter volumes associated with T1D were -62.86 (-93.71,-32.01), -34.27 (-53.72, -14.83), and -28.59 (-47.65, -9.52) ml, respectively. During a median follow-up of 11.9 years, 2035 new dementia cases were identified. Younger age at diagnosis of T2D was associated with larger excessive risk of dementia, whereas T2D diagnosed <50 years was associated with the largest hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI: 2.03[1.53-2.69]) in the multivariable analysis. The HR (95% CI) for dementia associated with T1D was 2.08 (1.40-3.09). CONCLUSION: Individuals with T1D or T2D diagnosed at younger age are at larger excessive risk of brain volume reduction and dementia.

Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. The protection provided by vaccines and booster doses offered a method of mitigating severe clinical outcomes and mortality. However, by the end of 2021, the global distribution of vaccines was highly heterogeneous, with some countries gaining over 90% coverage in adults, whereas others reached less than 2%. In this study, we used an age-structured model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, matched to national data from 152 countries in 2021, to investigate the global impact of different potential vaccine sharing protocols that attempted to address this inequity. We quantified the effects of implemented vaccine rollout strategies on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the subsequent global burden of disease and the emergence of novel variants. We found that greater vaccine sharing would have lowered the total global burden of disease, and any associated increases in infections in previously vaccine-rich countries could have been mitigated by reduced relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results reinforce the health message, pertinent to future pandemics, that vaccine distribution proportional to wealth, rather than to need, may be detrimental to all.

Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study.

Background. Even with good progress on vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK may continue to impose a high burden of disease and therefore pose substantial challenges for health policy decision makers. Stringent government-mandated physical distancing measures (lockdown) have been demonstrated to be epidemiologically effective, but can have both positive and negative economic consequences. The duration and frequency of any intervention policy could, in theory, be optimized to maximize economic benefits while achieving substantial reductions in disease. Methods. Here, we use a pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to assess the health and economic implications of different strengths of control through time in order to identify optimal approaches to non-pharmaceutical intervention stringency in the UK, considering the role of vaccination in reducing the need for future physical distancing measures. The model is calibrated to the COVID-19 epidemic in England and we carry out retrospective analysis of the optimal timing of precautionary breaks in 2020 and the optimal relaxation policy from the January 2021 lockdown, considering the willingness to pay (WTP) for health improvement. Results. We find that the precise timing and intensity of interventions is highly dependent upon the objective of control. As intervention measures are relaxed, we predict a resurgence in cases, but the optimal intervention policy can be established dependent upon the WTP per quality adjusted life year loss avoided. Our results show that establishing an optimal level of control can result in a reduction in net monetary loss of billions of pounds, dependent upon the precise WTP value. Conclusion. It is vital, as the UK emerges from lockdown, but continues to face an on-going pandemic, to accurately establish the overall health and economic costs when making policy decisions. We demonstrate how some of these can be quantified, employing mechanistic infectious disease transmission models to establish optimal levels of control for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England.

Control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic in England has relied on a combination of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Some of these NPIs are extremely costly (economically and socially), so it was important to relax these promptly without overwhelming already burdened health services. The eventual policy was a Roadmap of four relaxation steps throughout 2021, taking England from lock-down to the cessation of all restrictions on social interaction. In a series of six Roadmap documents generated throughout 2021, models assessed the potential risk of each relaxation step. Here we show that the model projections generated a reliable estimation of medium-term hospital admission trends, with the data points up to September 2021 generally lying within our 95% prediction intervals. The greatest uncertainties in the modelled scenarios came from vaccine efficacy estimates against novel variants, and from assumptions about human behaviour in the face of changing restrictions and risk.

The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications.

Background: The reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission facilitated by mobile contact tracing applications (apps) depends both on the proportion of relevant contacts notified and on the probability that those contacts quarantine after notification. The proportion of relevant contacts notified depends upon the number of days preceding an infector's positive test that their contacts are notified, which we refer to as an app's notification window. Methods: We use an epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that captures the profile of infection to consider the trade-off between notification window length and active app use. We focus on 5-day and 2-day windows, the notification windows of the NHS COVID-19 app in England and Wales before and after 2nd August 2021, respectively. Results: Our analyses show that at the same level of active app use, 5-day windows result in larger reductions in transmission than 2-day windows. However, short notification windows can be more effective at reducing transmission if they are associated with higher levels of active app use and adherence to isolation upon notification. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding adherence to interventions when setting notification windows for COVID-19 contact tracing apps.

After submitting a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result, mobile contact-tracing apps identify 'recent' high-risk encounters with other app users, who are then notified of potential exposure. An app's success at limiting further transmission depends on the proportion of infected contacts notified. This depends on what counts as 'recent', e.g. notifying contacts from 5 days prior to the positive test can capture more infections than notifying contacts from 2 days prior. We call this number of days an app's notification window. However, an app's effectiveness also depends on whether or not exposed contacts use the app and adhere to isolation if notified. If shorter windows are associated with higher levels of active app use, they can be more effective at reducing transmission than longer windows, demonstrating the importance of considering the potential impact on active app use when setting an app's notification window length.

Moving towards intelligent telemedicine: Computer vision measurement of human movement.

BACKGROUND: Telemedicine video consultations are rapidly increasing globally, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This presents opportunities to use computer vision technologies to augment clinician visual judgement because video cameras are so ubiquitous in personal devices and new techniques, such as DeepLabCut (DLC) can precisely measure human movement from smartphone videos. However, the accuracy of DLC to track human movements in videos obtained from laptop cameras, which have a much lower FPS, has never been investigated; this is a critical gap because patients use laptops for most telemedicine consultations. OBJECTIVES: To determine the validity and reliability of DLC applied to laptop videos to measure finger tapping, a validated test of human movement. METHOD: Sixteen adults completed finger-tapping tests at 0.5 Hz, 1 Hz, 2 Hz, 3 Hz and at maximal speed. Hand movements were recorded simultaneously by a laptop camera at 30 frames per second (FPS) and by Optotrak, a 3D motion analysis system at 250 FPS. Eight DLC neural network architectures (ResNet50, ResNet101, ResNet152, MobileNetV1, MobileNetV2, EfficientNetB0, EfficientNetB3, EfficientNetB6) were applied to the laptop video and extracted movement features were compared to the ground truth Optotrak motion tracking. RESULTS: Over 96% (529/552) of DLC measures were within +/-0.5 Hz of the Optotrak measures. At tapping frequencies >4 Hz, there was progressive decline in accuracy, attributed to motion blur associated with the laptop camera's low FPS. Computer vision methods hold potential for moving us towards intelligent telemedicine by providing human movement analysis during consultations. However, further developments are required to accurately measure the fastest movements.

Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour.

The spread of infection amongst livestock depends not only on the traits of the pathogen and the livestock themselves, but also on the veterinary health behaviours of farmers and how this impacts their implementation of disease control measures. Controls that are costly may make it beneficial for individuals to rely on the protection offered by others, though that may be sub-optimal for the population. Failing to account for socio-behavioural properties may produce a substantial layer of bias in infectious disease models. We investigated the role of heterogeneity in vaccine response across a population of farmers on epidemic outbreaks amongst livestock, caused by pathogens with differential speed of spread over spatial landscapes of farms for two counties in England (Cumbria and Devon). Under different compositions of three vaccine behaviour groups (precautionary, reactionary, non-vaccination), we evaluated from population- and individual-level perspectives the optimum threshold distance to premises with notified infection that would trigger responsive vaccination by the reactionary vaccination group. We demonstrate a divergence between population and individual perspectives in the optimal scale of reactive voluntary vaccination response. In general, minimising the population-level perspective cost requires a broader reactive uptake of the intervention, whilst optimising the outcome for the average individual increased the likelihood of larger scale disease outbreaks. When the relative cost of vaccination was low and the majority of premises had undergone precautionary vaccination, then adopting a perspective that optimised the outcome for an individual gave a broader spatial extent of reactive response compared to a perspective wanting to optimise outcomes for everyone in the population. Under our assumed epidemiological context, the findings identify livestock disease intervention receptiveness and cost combinations where one would expect strong disagreement between the intervention stringency that is best from the perspective of a stakeholder responsible for supporting the livestock industry compared to a sole livestock owner. Were such discord anticipated and achieving a consensus view across perspectives desired, the findings may also inform those managing veterinary health policy the requisite reduction in intervention cost and/or the required extent of nurturing beneficial community attitudes towards interventions.

The TAS Test project: a prospective longitudinal validation of new online motor-cognitive tests to detect preclinical Alzheimer's disease and estimate 5-year risks of cognitive decline and dementia.

BACKGROUND: The worldwide prevalence of dementia is rapidly rising. Alzheimer's disease (AD), accounts for 70% of cases and has a 10-20-year preclinical period, when brain pathology covertly progresses before cognitive symptoms appear. The 2020 Lancet Commission estimates that 40% of dementia cases could be prevented by modifying lifestyle/medical risk factors. To optimise dementia prevention effectiveness, there is urgent need to identify individuals with preclinical AD for targeted risk reduction. Current preclinical AD tests are too invasive, specialist or costly for population-level assessments. We have developed a new online test, TAS Test, that assesses a range of motor-cognitive functions and has capacity to be delivered at significant scale. TAS Test combines two innovations: using hand movement analysis to detect preclinical AD, and computer-human interface technologies to enable robust 'self-testing' data collection. The aims are to validate TAS Test to [1] identify preclinical AD, and [2] predict risk of cognitive decline and AD dementia. METHODS: Aim 1 will be addressed through a cross-sectional study of 500 cognitively healthy older adults, who will complete TAS Test items comprising measures of motor control, processing speed, attention, visuospatial ability, memory and language. TAS Test measures will be compared to a blood-based AD biomarker, phosphorylated tau 181 (p-tau181). Aim 2 will be addressed through a 5-year prospective cohort study of 10,000 older adults. Participants will complete TAS Test annually and subtests of the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Battery (CANTAB) biennially. 300 participants will undergo in-person clinical assessments. We will use machine learning of motor-cognitive performance on TAS Test to develop an algorithm that classifies preclinical AD risk (p-tau181-defined) and determine the precision to prospectively estimate 5-year risks of cognitive decline and AD. DISCUSSION: This study will establish the precision of TAS Test to identify preclinical AD and estimate risk of cognitive decline and AD. If accurate, TAS Test will provide a low-cost, accessible enrichment strategy to pre-screen individuals for their likelihood of AD pathology prior to more expensive tests such as blood or imaging biomarkers. This would have wide applications in public health initiatives and clinical trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05194787 , 18 January 2022. Retrospectively registered.

Descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England (2016-2020).

BACKGROUND: Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) causes substantial economic losses to the cattle industry; however, control and eradication can be achieved by identifying and removing persistently infected cattle from the herd. Each UK nation has separate control programmes. The English scheme, BVDFree, started in 2016 and is voluntary. METHODS: We analysed the test results submitted to BVDFree from 5847 herds between 2016 and 2020. RESULTS: In 2020, 13.5% of beef breeders and 20.0% of dairy herds that submitted tests had at least one positive (virus/antibody) test result. Although lower than in previous years, there was no clear trend in the proportion of positive tests over time. In virus testing herds, 0.4% of individual tests were positive in 2020, and 1.5% of individual tests were positive in BVDV-positive virus testing herds. Dairy herds and larger herds were more likely to join BVDFree, and dairy herds were also more likely to virus test than beef breeder herds. Larger herds, herds that used virus testing and herds that had BVDV-positive test results were more likely to continue submitting tests to BVDFree. CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide a benchmark for the status of BVDV control in England; continued analysis of test results will be important to assess progress towards eradication.

Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences: A modelling study.

Rapid testing strategies that replace the isolation of close contacts through the use of lateral flow device tests (LFTs) have been suggested as a way of controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission within schools that maintain low levels of pupil absences. We developed an individual-based model of a secondary school formed of exclusive year group bubbles (five year groups, with 200 pupils per year) to assess the likely impact of strategies using LFTs in secondary schools over the course of a seven-week half-term on transmission, absences, and testing volume, compared to a policy of isolating year group bubbles upon a pupil returning a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. We also considered the sensitivity of results to levels of participation in rapid testing and underlying model assumptions. While repeated testing of year group bubbles following case detection is less effective at reducing infections than a policy of isolating year group bubbles, strategies involving twice weekly mass testing can reduce infections to lower levels than would occur under year group isolation. By combining regular testing with serial contact testing or isolation, infection levels can be reduced further still. At high levels of pupil participation in lateral flow testing, strategies replacing the isolation of year group bubbles with testing substantially reduce absences, but require a high volume of testing. Our results highlight the conflict between the goals of minimising within-school transmission, minimising absences and minimising testing burden. While rapid testing strategies can reduce school transmission and absences, they may lead to a large number of daily tests.

Island Study Linking Aging and Neurodegenerative Disease (ISLAND) Targeting Dementia Risk Reduction: Protocol for a Prospective Web-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Up to 40% of incident dementia is considered attributable to behavioral and lifestyle factors. Given the current lack of medical treatments and the projected increase in dementia prevalence, a focus on prevention through risk reduction is needed. OBJECTIVE: We aim to increase dementia risk knowledge and promote changes in dementia risk behaviors at individual and population levels. METHODS: The Island Study Linking Aging and Neurodegenerative Disease (ISLAND) is a long-term prospective, web-based cohort study with nested interventions that will be conducted over a 10-year period. Target participants (n=10,000) reside in Tasmania and are aged 50 years or over. Survey data on knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors related to modifiable dementia risk factors will be collected annually. After each survey wave, participants will be provided with a personalized dementia risk profile containing guidelines for reducing risk across 9 behavioral and lifestyle domains and with opportunities to engage in educational and behavioral interventions targeting risk reduction. Survey data will be modeled longitudinally with intervention engagement indices, cognitive function indices, and blood-based biomarkers, to measure change in risk over time. RESULTS: In the initial 12 months (October 2019 to October 2020), 6410 participants have provided baseline data. The study is ongoing. CONCLUSIONS: Recruitment targets are feasible and efforts are ongoing to achieve a representative sample. Findings will inform future public health dementia risk reduction initiatives by showing whether, when, and how dementia risk can be lowered through educational and behavioral interventions, delivered in an uncontrolled real-world context. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/34688.