The wisdom of many in few: Finding individuals who are as wise as the crowd.

Is forecasting ability a stable trait? While domain knowledge and reasoning abilities are necessary for making accurate forecasts, research shows that knowing how accurate forecasters have been in the past is the best predictor of future accuracy. However, unlike the measurement of other traits, evaluating forecasting skill requires substantial time investment. Forecasters must make predictions about events that may not resolve for many days, weeks, months, or even years into the future before their accuracy can be estimated. Our work builds upon methods such as cultural consensus theory and proxy scoring rules to show talented forecasters can be discriminated in real time, without requiring any event resolutions. We define a peer similarity-based intersubjective evaluation method and test its utility in a unique longitudinal forecasting experiment. Because forecasters predicted all events at the same points in time, many of the confounds common to forecasting tournaments or observational data were eliminated. This allowed us to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in real time, as time progressed and more information about forecasters became available. Intersubjective accuracy scores, which can be obtained immediately after the forecasts are made, were both valid and reliable estimators of forecasting talent. We also found that asking forecasters to make meta-predictions about what they expect others to believe can serve as an incentive-compatible method of intersubjective evaluation. Our results indicate that selecting small groups of, or even single forecasters, based on intersubjective accuracy can yield subsequent forecasts that approximate the actual accuracy of much larger crowd aggregates. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

The Impact of Sleep on the Relationship between Soccer Heading Exposure and Neuropsychological Function in College-Age Soccer Players.

OBJECTIVE: Soccer is the most popular sport worldwide and is the only sport where athletes purposely use their head to deflect the ball during play, termed "heading" the ball. These repetitive head impacts (RHI) are associated with worse neuropsychological function; however, factors that can increase risk of injury following exposure to such head impacts have been largely unexamined. The present study provided a novel examination of the modifying role of sleep on the relationship between RHI exposure and neuropsychological function in college-age soccer players. METHODS: Fifty varsity and intramural college soccer players completed questionnaires assessing recent and long-term heading exposure, a self-report measure of sleep function, and a battery of neuropsychological tests. RESULTS: A high level of recent heading exposure was significantly associated with poorer processing speed, independent of concussion history. With reduced sleep duration, a high level of recent heading exposure was related to worse sustained attention. However, with greater hours of sleep duration, heading exposure was related to preserved neuropsychological outcome in sustained attention. CONCLUSIONS: We replicated our earlier finding of an association between recent head impact exposure and worse processing speed in an independent sample. In addition, we found that sleep may serve as a risk or protective factor for soccer players following extensive exposure to head impacts. Ultimately, this study furthers the understanding of factors impacting neuropsychological function in soccer players and provides empirical support for sleep interventions to help ensure safer soccer play and recovery from injury.