Population measles seroprevalence: Heterogeneity by birth-year cohort.

Objective: This work sought to estimate population measles seroprevalence and heterogeneity in the antibody concentration distribution that could be explained by the birth-year cohort according to the opportunity of viral and vaccine exposure, applied to data from Medellín, Colombia. Methods: Prevalence of IgG antibodies was analyzed for measles based on a population study with a random sample of 2098 individuals from 6 to 64 years of age. Finite mixture models were used to estimate global seroprevalence and that of three birth-year cohorts (I: born up to 1982; II: 1983-1994; III: born since 1995). Multiple linear regression permitted adjusting the concentration of antibodies by cohort, zone, and sex. Results: Globally, seronegativity was 6.5% (95% CI 4.9- 8.6), seropositivity of 78.4% (95% CI 75.1-81.4), and equivocal of 15.1% (95% CI 12.5-18.1). Two components were found with skewed normal distribution, which reclassified those equivocal as seropositive. Differences were observed by cohort in the geometric mean of antibodies [Cohort I: 1704.6; II: 562.2; III: 802.1 milli-international units per milliliter (mIU/mL] and seronegativity (Cohort I: 4%; II:13.3%; III: 8.9%). Antibody concentration increased by 1.26 mIU/mL in residents in the rural area, while diminishing in individuals from cohort II (by 3.02 mIU/mL) and cohort III (by 2.14 mIU/mL). Conclusion: The younger cohorts (II and III) had a lower antibody concentration (higher seronegativity), indicating the need to monitor periodically seroprevalence and an eventual reestablishment of the transmission in these groups with higher risk of infection.

Measles Serostatus in Mothers and Their Newborns in Antioquia, Colombia: Implications for Measles Elimination.

To describe the serostatus of measles IgG antibodies in pregnant women and newborns, placental transfer, and factors that determine being below the threshold of 150 mIU/mL, a cross-sectional study was conducted. Blood samples of 790 pregnant women at the time of delivery and 734 umbilical cord samples were analyzed from eight hospitals in the Aburrá Valley of Antioquia, Colombia. Measles IgG antibody measurement was performed with ELISA. The proportion of individuals with antibodies < 150 mIU/mL was 13.9% (95% CI: 12.2-15.8) in pregnant women and 11.1% (95% CI: 9.2-13.4) in newborns. The geometric mean of the antibody level of the pregnant women was 552 mIU/mL (95% CI: 504-605) and in the umbilical cord 662 mIU/mL (95% CI: 604-727). A positive correlation between pregnant woman and umbilical cord antibodies was found. The median ratio of measles IgG antibodies in umbilical cord/pregnant woman was 1.22 for all participants. A seroprevalence below the threshold of 150 mIU/mL was found in newborns whose mothers were born between 1983 and 1994, compared with those born before that period, when exposure to the wildtype virus was common (adjusted prevalence ratio: 3.6, 95% CI: 1.3-9.6). These findings suggest that there are gaps in measles immunity among women of childbearing age, before pregnancy. To close this immune gap and support efforts to maintain measles control, serological screening for measles antibodies should be routinely included in reproductive health and antenatal care programs to identify women without immunity who should be vaccinated before pregnancy or after delivery.

Monitoring COVID-19 in Colombia during the first year of the pandemic.

Background: COVID-19 cases in Medellín, the second largest city in Colombia, were monitored during the first year of the pandemic using both mathematical models based on transmission theory and surveillance from each observed epidemic phase. Design and Methods: Expected cases were estimated using mandatory reporting data from Colombia's national epidemiological surveillance system from March 7, 2020 to March 7, 2021. Initially, the range of daily expected cases was estimated using a Borel-Tanner stochastic model and a deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. A subsequent expanded version of the SIR model was used to include asymptomatic cases, severe cases and deaths. The moving average, standard deviation, and goodness of fit of estimated cases relative to confirmed reported cases were assessed, and local transmission in Medellin was contrasted with national transmission in Colombia. Results: The initial phase was characterized by imported case detection and the later phase by community transmission and increases in case magnitude and severity. In the initial phase, a maximum range of expected cases was obtained based on the stochastic model, which even accounted for the reduction of new imported cases following the closure of international airports. The deterministic estimate achieved an adequate fit with respect to accumulated cases until the conclusion of the mandatory national quarantine and gradual reopening, when reported cases increased. The estimated new cases were reasonably fit with the maximum reported incidence. Conclusion: Adequate model fit was obtained with the reported data. This experience of monitoring epidemic trajectory can be extended using models adapted to local conditions.

Seroprevalence against Diphtheria in Pregnant Women and Newborns in Colombia: New Arguments to Promote Maternal Immunization.

The tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine is recommended during pregnancy for neonatal protection against pertussis, although little is known of the protection it provides against diphtheria. The work used a cross-sectional design to estimate seroprevalence against diphtheria in 805 pregnant women with ≥37 gestation weeks and their newborns whose deliveries were attended in eight hospitals randomly chosen from a subregion of Antioquia, Colombia and to explore factors related with maternal protection. Levels of IgG antibodies were determined by using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay test. Placental transfer of antibodies and crude and adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) were analyzed to describe factors related with maternal protection against diphtheria. Protection against diphtheria was observed in 91.7% (95% CI 90.3-93.0) of the pregnant women and 93.1% (95% CI 91.7-94.4) of newborns, whose antibody levels were positively correlated (Spearman's r = 0.769; p = 0.000). Maternal protection could be influenced by having been vaccinated during the current pregnancy (aPR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.82-0.93). The protective effect of vaccination during pregnancy and the efficiency of maternal antibody transfers were detected. Public health efforts should focus on increasing Tdap vaccination during each pregnancy to protect mothers and newborns against diphtheria.

Successful seroconversion against diphtheria and tetanus induced through maternal vaccination in a region of Colombia.

PURPOSE: This study aims to compare protection against diphtheria and tetanus conferred on the mother and the neonate before and after maternal vaccination against tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap), transfer of antibodies, and the variables that could impact on the protection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study followed a cohort of 200 pregnant women from a region in Colombia, contacted during prenatal control before vaccination and upon delivery. The work determined immunoglobulin G antibodies against diphtheria and tetanus of pregnant women and umbilical cord. The proportion of protection, the geometric mean of the concentration, and the transfer of maternal antibodies were calculated. The protection profile of the pregnant women was explored by using multiple correspondence analysis. RESULTS: The concentration of antibodies against diphtheria was significant before and after vaccination of the pregnant women (p=0.000) with proportions of 85.0% and 97.5%, respectively, and of 98.6% in the umbilical cord, with significant antibody correlation (Spearman's coefficient=0.668, p=0.01). Sero-protection against tetanus before vaccination was at 71.0%, after at 92.6%, and in the umbilical cord at 95.9%, with significant antibody concentration before and after vaccination (p=0.000) and antibody correlation (Spearman's coefficient=0.936, p=0.01). Sero-protection was higher when the pregnant women were vaccine 8 to 11 weeks before delivery. Unprotected pregnant women were those not vaccinated during pregnancy. CONCLUSION: The high proportion of protection against diphtheria and tetanus and the placental transfer support the need to promote maternal immunization with Tdap.

Impact of childhood and maternal vaccination against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: In Latin America, there are few studies of the impact of vaccination against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis. We estimate the impact of infant and maternal vaccination on the incidence of these diseases in Colombia. DESIGN AND METHODS: an interrupted time series study analyzing the incidence before and after of vaccination with DwPT (1975-2018) and with Tdap in pregnant women (2008-2018). A segmented regression model with negative binomial distribution estimated the change in level and trend of the predicted incidence ratio after vaccination in relation to the incidence if vaccination had not been started (IRR), using a Prais Winsten regression. RESULTS: The pertussis IRR decreased immediately after the start of childhood vaccination (0.91, p=0.51), but this was only significant (1.01, p<0.001) along with the trend per year, after the start of maternal vaccination (0.98, p<0.001). In the absence of vaccination, the incidence would not have been reduced. Neonatal tetanus had the highest rate of change with significant reduction -1.69 - CI 95%: -2.91, -0.48). The trend after vaccination was the highest with an annual reduction of 19% (0.81, p=0.001). The change in incidence of diphtheria was significant, although slow (-0.02 - CI 95%: -0.04, -0.004). The sustained effect in the post-vaccination period was smaller (0.95, p=0.79). CONCLUSIONS: Childhood and maternal vaccination markedly reduced the incidence of pertussis and neonatal tetanus. It is necessary to maintain optimal vaccination coverage and surveillance, within an integrated elimination plan, which prevents the resurgence of these diseases.

Seroprevalence of Varicella in Pregnant Women and Newborns in a Region of Colombia.

We estimate the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies to varicella zoster virus (VZV) based on the first serological study in a cohort of pregnant women and newborns from the Aburrá Valley (Antioquia-Colombia) who attended delivery in eight randomly chosen hospitals. An indirect enzyme immunoassay was used to determine anti-VZV IgG antibodies. Generalized linear models were constructed to identify variables that modify seropositivity. In pregnant women, seropositivity was 85.8% (95% CI: 83.4-85.9), seronegativity was 12.6% (95% CI: 10.8-14.6), and concordance with umbilical cord titers was 90.0% (95% CI: 89-91). The seropositivity of pregnant women was lower in those who lived in rural areas (IRR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2-0.7), belonged to the high socioeconomic status (IRR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2-0.7), and had studied 11 years or more (IRR: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4-0.8). Among newborns, seropositivity was lower in those who weighed less than 3000 g (IRR: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.6-1.0). The high seropositivity and seronegativity pattern indicates the urgent need to design preconception consultation and vaccination reinforcement for women of childbearing age according to their sociodemographic conditions, to prevent infection and complications in the mother and newborn.

Serosurveillance for vaccine-preventable diseases: A look inside the pertussis experience / Serovigilancia de enfermedades prevenibles por vacunación: una mirada desde la experiencia con la tosferina

Abstract Introduction: Serological surveillance (serosurveillance) provides the most direct measure of herd immunity of vaccine-preventable diseases. Little is known about the opportunities and challenges of serosurveillance experiences, particularly pertussis. Objective: To describe the process of serosurveillance for vaccine-preventable diseases with an emphasis on the experience of pertussis in the metropolitan area of Antioquia (Valle de Aburrá) in 2015 and 2016 and analyze the contributions and challenges for its sustainability. Materials and methods: We described the planning and conduction of serosurveillance of pertussis antibodies of mothers and in the umbilical cord at the time of delivery in eight hospitals based on random sampling and their capacity to advance the serosurveillance periodically. We compared the contributions and the challenges of this experience with other probabilistic and non-probabilistic programs. Results: We achieved the participation of hospitals and mothers respecting the delivery care process. We established a serum bank following ethical and technical guidelines. This program based on the random selection of hospitals and mothers has enabled the estimation of antibodies prevalence in mothers and in the umbilical cord, which has been possible given the high coverage of hospital care during childbirth at a lower cost and fewer risks than a population-based survey in conflictive areas. The main challenges for the sustainability of this program are the creation of stable jobs and access to funding and legal and methodological long-term frameworks. Conclusions: Hospital serosurveillance as described is an option to monitor the impact of vaccination on the population. Our experience could be reproduced in other regions under similar conditions if the above-mentioned challenges are solved.

Resumen Introducción. La vigilancia serológica es la forma más directa de medir la inmunidad de rebaño frente a las enfermedades prevenibles por vacunación. Poco se sabe acerca de las oportunidades y los desafíos de las experiencias de serovigilancia, en general y, específicamente, la de la tosferina. Objetivo. Describir el proceso de serovigilancia de enfermedades prevenibles por vacunación con énfasis en la experiencia en el caso de la tosferina en el área metropolitana de Antioquia (Valle de Aburrá) en el 2015 y el 2016 y analizar lo que dicha experiencia ha aportado y los desafíos que persisten para su sostenibilidad. Materiales y métodos. Se describió el proceso de planeación y el desarrollo de la serovigilancia de tosferina en el momento del parto en ocho hospitales seleccionados al azar, así como la capacidad para adelantar el programa de manera periódica. Se compararon los aportes y los desafíos en el curso de esta experiencia con los de otros programas poblacionales probabilistas e institucionales no probabilistas. Resultados. Se logró la participación de los hospitales y de las madres con pleno respeto del proceso de atención del parto, y se conformó un banco de sueros siguiendo lineamientos éticos y técnicos. El programa permitió estimar la prevalencia de anticuerpos en la madre y en el cordón umbilical, lo que se facilitó por la alta cobertura de atención hospitalaria del parto, a un menor costo y menos riesgos que los programas poblacionales en zonas conflictivas. Los principales desafíos para la sostenibilidad del programa son la estabilidad laboral del personal de salud, así como normas y una financiación de largo plazo. Conclusiones. La serovigilancia hospitalaria es una opción para monitorizar el impacto poblacional de la vacunación. Esta experiencia se podría extender a otras regiones en condiciones similares si se resuelven los retos mencionados.

Effect of maternal immunization against pertussis in Medellin and the metropolitan area, Colombia, 2016-2017.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, pertussis immunization (Tdap) for pregnant women was implemented in Colombia to protect newborns in response to increased pertussis incidence. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of Tdap maternal immunization on the concentration of mother/umbilical cord antibodies and the occurrence of pertussis in infants during their first six months of life. METHODS: A cohort study in eight randomly selected hospitals in Medellin and metropolitan area of Antioquia, Colombia was conducted in 2015-2016. IgG PT antibody levels in paired maternal and umbilical cord sera were measured from 805 mothers immunized recruited during labor and 200 mothers recruited during the prenatal care before immunization and followed until delivery. Antibodies were analyzed by commercial ELISA kits. 896 infants were followed to detect acute respiratory infections and paroxysms of coughing, inspiratory whoop, apnea, cyanosis or post-tussive vomiting. For laboratory confirmation, B. pertussis- specific real time PCR was performed. RESULTS: We observed a high prevalence of titers >100 IU/mL (mother: 18.40% [95% CI 16-21%]; umbilical cord: 23.1% [95% CI 19.2-27.4%]), positive correlation of umbilical cord and maternal antibodies, higher antibody concentration in vaccinated than in non-vaccinated mothers and significant difference in antibody levels before and after vaccination (Wilcoxon test p = 0.000). The trans placental transport ratio was higher if the mother was vaccinated between 26 and 30 weeks of pregnancy and maximum eight weeks before delivery. Two cases of pertussis were confirmed in infants (incidence of 1.99 per 1000). CONCLUSION: The expected effect of Tdap maternal vaccination against pertussis was observed.

Seroprevalence of hepatitis B and factors potentially associated in a population-based study in Medellin, Colombia.

The seroprevalence of hepatitis B (HB) and of potentially associated factors in Medellin, Colombia, were investigated 17years after the start of universal vaccination. Biological and sociodemographic data from a population survey with a multistage random sampling were analyzed in 6-64year old individuals. HB surface antigen, total HB core antibodies and HB surface antibodies, and in some cases IgM antibodies to HB core antigen, were tested in 2077 samples. Factors potentially associated with and natural, and vaccine immunity relative to susceptibility (absence of any marker) were analyzed using a multinomial logistic regression. The prevalence of serological patterns was: chronic infection 0.20% (95% CI 0.11-0.71), vaccine immunity 25.10% (95% CI 21.72-28.83) and natural immunity 2.60% (95% CI 1.80-3.74). No markers were detected in 71.30% (95% CI 67.70-74.83) of the individuals and evidence of recent infection was not detected. Relative to the absence of markers, natural immunity was potentially associated with age (6-17years and 41-64years) and sleeping less than 6 hours, while vaccine immunity was associated with age (6-17years), reporting vaccination against HB, belonging to high socioeconomic strata, home ownership and being obese, after adjusting for other variables. These results may be a population effect of mass vaccination. It is recommended to complete the vaccination schedule and to study in detail, persistence of antibodies and the role of obesity and socioeconomic strata in the vaccine immunity.

Stratifying the potential local transmission of Zika in municipalities of Antioquia, Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: To stratify and understand the potential transmission processes of Zika virus in Colombia, in order to effectively address the efforts on surveillance and disease control. METHODS: We compare R0 of Zika for municipalities based on data from the regional surveillance system of Antioquia, Colombia. The basic reproduction number (R0 ) and its 95% confidence intervals were estimated from an SIR model with implicit vector dynamics, in terms of recovered individuals in each time unit, using an approximate solution. These parameters were estimated fitting the solution of the model to the daily cumulative frequency of each Zika case according to symptoms onset date relative to the index case reported to the local surveillance system. RESULTS: R0 was estimated for 20 municipalities with a median of 30 000 inhabitants, all located less than 2200 m above sea level. The reported cases ranged from 17 to 347 between these municipalities within 4 months (January to April of 2016). The results suggest that 15 municipalities had a high transmission potential (R0  > 1), whereas in five municipality transmissions were potentially not sustaining (R0  < 1), although the upper bound of the confidence interval of the R0 for 3 of these 5 was greater than one, indicating the possibility of an outbreak later on. CONCLUSION: The study identified high-risk municipalities (R0  > 1) and provide a technique to optimise surveillance and control of Zika. Health authorities should promote the collection, analysis, modelling and sharing of anonymous data onto individual cases to estimate R0 .

Using Phenomenological Models to Characterize Transmissibility and Forecast Patterns and Final Burden of Zika Epidemics.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization declared the ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on February 1, 2016. ZIKV disease in humans is characterized by a "dengue-like" syndrome including febrile illness and rash. However, ZIKV infection in early pregnancy has been associated with severe birth defects, including microcephaly and other developmental issues. Mechanistic models of disease transmission can be used to forecast trajectories and likely disease burden but are currently hampered by substantial uncertainty on the epidemiology of the disease (e.g., the role of asymptomatic transmission, generation interval, incubation period, and key drivers). When insight is limited, phenomenological models provide a starting point for estimation of key transmission parameters, such as the reproduction number, and forecasts of epidemic impact. METHODS: We obtained daily counts of suspected Zika cases by date of symptoms onset from the Secretary of Health of Antioquia, Colombia during January-April 2016. We calibrated the generalized Richards model, a phenomenological model that accommodates a variety of early exponential and sub-exponential growth kinetics, against the early epidemic trajectory and generated predictions of epidemic size. The reproduction number was estimated by applying the renewal equation to incident cases simulated from the fitted generalized-growth model and assuming gamma or exponentially-distributed generation intervals derived from the literature. We estimated the reproduction number for an increasing duration of the epidemic growth phase. RESULTS: The reproduction number rapidly declined from 10.3 (95% CI: 8.3, 12.4) in the first disease generation to 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9, 2.8) in the second disease generation, assuming a gamma-distributed generation interval with the mean of 14 days and standard deviation of 2 days. The generalized-Richards model outperformed the logistic growth model and provided forecasts within 22% of the actual epidemic size based on an assessment 30 days into the epidemic, with the epidemic peaking on day 36. CONCLUSION: Phenomenological models represent promising tools to generate early forecasts of epidemic impact particularly in the context of substantial uncertainty in epidemiological parameters. Our findings underscore the need to treat the reproduction number as a dynamic quantity even during the early growth phase, and emphasize the sensitivity of reproduction number estimates to assumptions on the generation interval distribution.

Seroprevalence of mumps in an epidemic period in Medellín, Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: We related seroprevalence and outbreaks data in order to identify factors that could explain the occurrence of outbreaks despite high vaccination coverage in Medellín Colombia. METHODS: Samples from a population seroprevalence data obtained in 2009 in a random survey were analyzed. IgG levels were determined for mumps using 2 commercial tests of 2119 individuals aged 6-64 years. A comparative analysis was undertaken using age-specific mumps seroprevalence data and information of 98 epidemiological investigations of mumps outbreaks reported in 2009. RESULTS: Overall, seroprevalence was 91.6% (95% CI=89.3-93.5%). The age-specific seronegativity was 20.3% and 20.6% in age groups 11-15 years and 16-20 years respectively. Individuals aged 6-20 years were the most affected during outbreaks. In individuals born in 2003, a year after the change in the booster schedule from 10 to 5 years, the proportion of unvaccinated individuals (14%) and those who received only one dose of MMR (45%) increased substantially. On average, 23.5 days elapsed between the onset of symptoms in secondary cases and the outbreak investigation. CONCLUSION: Potential contributing factors for the occurrence of outbreaks of mumps were the relatively high prevalence of seronegativity among individuals aged 11-20 years, delays in investigation and control of outbreaks, and incomplete vaccination schedules.

Seroprevalencia de rubeola en Colombia: un analisis por cohorte de nacimiento / Soroprevalencia de rubeola em Colombia: analise por coorte de nascimento / Seroprevalence of rubella in Colombia: a birth-year cohort analysis

OBJETIVO : Estimar la seroprevalencia de rubéola y factores asociados. METODOS : Estudio de seroprevalencia poblacional con una muestra aleatoria de 2.124 individuos de seis a 64 años, representativa por edad, sexo y área en Medellín, Colombia, 2009. Se analizó la asociación de variables biológicas y socioeconómicas con la seroprotección para rubéola, según la cohorte del año de nacimiento antes (1954 a 1990) y después (1991 a 2003) del inicio de la vacunación universal. Se determinaron los títulos de IgG con pruebas de alta sensibilidad (AxSYM ® Rubella IgG – Laboratorio Abbott) y especificidad (VIDAS RUB IgG II ® – Laboratorio BioMerieux). Se estimaron proporciones y promedios ponderados derivados de un muestreo complejo incluyendo un factor de corrección por las diferencias en la participación por sexo. Se analizó la asociación de la protección por grupos de variables biológicas y sociales con un modelo de regresión logística, según la cohorte de nacimiento. RESULTADOS : Los títulos promedio de IgG fueron más altos en los nacidos antes del inicio de la vacunación (media 110 UI/ml; IC95% 100,5;120,2) que en los nacidos después (media 64 UI/ml; IC95% 54,4;72,8), p = 0,000. La proporción de protección fue creciente de 88,9% en los nacidos en 1990-1994, de 89,2% en 1995-1999 y de 92,1% en 2000 a 2003, posiblemente relacionado con la administración del refuerzo desde 1998. En los nacidos antes del inicio de la vacunación, la seroprotección estuvo asociada con el antecedente de contacto con casos (RD 2,6; IC95% 1,1;5,9), el estado de salud (RD 2,5; IC95% 1,05;6,0), el nivel de escolaridad (RD 0,2; IC95% 0,08;0,8) y los años de residencia del hogar en el barrio (RD 0,96; IC95% 0,98;1,0), luego de ajustar por todas las variables. En los nacidos después ...

OBJETIVO : Estimar a soroprevalência de rubéola e fatores associados. MÉTODOS : Estudo de soroprevalência em população a través de uma amostra aleatória de 2.124 indivíduos de seis a 64 anos, representativa por idade, sexo e área em Medellín, Colômbia, 2009. Foi analisada a associação de variáveis biológicas e socioeconômicas com a soroproteção para rubéola, de acordo com a coorte de nascimento antes (1954 a 1990) e depois (1991 a 2003) do inicio da vacinação universal. Foram determinados os títulos de IgG com testes de alta sensibilidade (AxSYM® Rubella IgG – Laboratório Abbott) e especificidade (VIDAS RUB IgG II® – Laboratório BioMerieux). Foram estimadas proporções e médias ponderadas derivadas de amostragem complexa incluindo um fator de correição pelas diferenças na participação por sexo. Foi analisada a associação da proteção por grupos de variáveis biológicas e sociais com um modelo de regressão logística, segundo a coorte de nascimento. RESULTADOS : As médias dos títulos de IgG foram maiores nos nascidos antes do inicio da vacinação (média 110UI/ml; IC95% 100,5;120,2) do que nos nascidos posteriormente (média 64 UI/ml; IC 95% 54,4;72,8), p = 0,000. A proporção de proteção foi crescente de 88,9% nos nascidos em 1990-1994, de 89,2% em 1995-1999 e de 92,1% em 2000 a 2003, provavelmente relacionado à administração do reforço desde 1998. A soroproteção esteve associada nos nascidos antes com o fato de ter contato com casos (RD 2,6; IC95% 1,1;5,9), o estado de saúde (RD 2,5; IC95% 1,05;6,0), o nível de escolaridade (RD 0,2; IC95% 0,08;0,8) e os anos morando no bairro (RD 0,96; IC95% 0,98;1,0), após ajuste por todas ...

OBJECTIVE : To estimate the seroprevalence of rubella and associated factors. METHODS : Population-based seroprevalence study in a random sample of 2,124 individuals, aged six to 64 years, representative by age, sex and area in Medellín, Colombia, 2009. Biological and socioeconomic variables were analyzed for their association with serum protection against rubella, according to birth-year cohort; those born before (1954-1990) and after (1991-2003) the introduction of universal immunization. Titer of IgG antibodies against the rubella virus was detected using a high sensitivity (AxSYM®Rubella IgG – Abbott Laboratories) and a high specificity test (VIDAS RUB IgG II®– BioMerieux Laboratories). Proportions and weighted averages derived from a complex sample, including a correction factor for differences in gender participation, were estimated. Association with protection for groups of biological and social variables according to birth cohort was analyzed using a logistic regression model. RESULTS : Titers of IgG antibodies were higher in those born before (mean 110 UI/ml, 95%CI 100.5;120.2) compared to those born after (mean 64 UI/ml; 95%CI 54.4;72.8; p = 0.000) the introduction of mass immunization. The proportion of protection increased from 88.9% in those born 1990-1994, to 89.2% in those born 1995-1999 and to 92.1% in those born between 2000 and 2003, possibly due to boosters being administered from 1998 onwards. In those born before the introduction of the immunization, seroprotection was associated with previous contact with cases (OR 2.6; 95%CI 1.1;5.9), self- perceived health status (OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.05;6.0), educational level (OR 0.2; 95%CI 0.08;0.8) and years of residence in the neighborhood (RD 0,96; 95%CI 0.98;1.0) after adjusting for all variables. In those born after, serum protection was associated with effective sleep time (OR 1,4; 95%CI 1.09;1.8) and self-perceived health status (OR 5.5; 95%CI ...

La dinámica de la transmisión de la enfermedad según la teoría de la complejidad / Disease transmission dynamics according to complexity theory

RESUMEN Objetivo Se ilustra el proceso de transmisión de una enfermedad, entendido como un sistema complejo a la luz de la teoría de la complejidad. Métodos Se simula el comportamiento de un modelo matemático SEIR que refleja el proceso de transmisión de una enfermedad a partir de la conexión de los estados de susceptibilidad, infección, enfermedad y recuperación y no linealidad en la interacción de susceptibles e infectados. Se asume una tasa de infección con oscilaciones en el tiempo, descrito por un mapeo logístico. Resultados La transmisión transcurre en el tiempo con la reducción de los susceptibles en la medida que estos se infectan y enferman y el aumento de la recuperación tras el diagnóstico y tratamiento. Con pequeños aumentos en el valor de la tasa de infección, se observan oscilaciones en el número de susceptibles y expuestos y aleatoriedad en la relación entre los susceptibles e infectados, hasta confluir a un patrón regular. Conclusión El modelo refleja la conexión entre los estados, la no linealidad y el comportamiento caótico tras pequeños aumentos del valor de la tasa de infección. Una perspectiva histórica y transdisciplinaria ayudaría a comprender la complejidad de la transmisión y a concertar opciones de control.

ABSTRACT Objective Illustrating disease transmission as a complex system according to complexity theory. Methods A SIR mathematical model (S=number susceptible, I=number infectious, and R=number recovered or immune) reflecting disease transmission from the connection between states of susceptibility, infection, disease, recovery and nonlinearity in the interaction between susceptible and infected was simulated. Infection rate temporal fluctuations were described by logistic mapping. Results Transmission occurs with the reduction of susceptible states as people become infected and sick, followed by an increase in individuals' recovery following diagnosis and treatment. Small increases in infection rate value led to fluctuations in the number of susceptible and exposed people and randomness in the relationship between being susceptible and infected, until converging towards a regular pattern. Conclusion The model reflected the connection between states of susceptibility, nonlinearity and chaotic behavior following small increases in infection rate. A historical and trans-disciplinary perspective could help in understanding transmission complexity and coordinating control options.

[Seroprevalence of rubella in Colombia: a birth-year cohort analysis]. / Seroprevalencia de rubeola en Colombia: un análisis por cohorte de nacimiento.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the seroprevalence of rubella and associated factors. METHODS: Population-based seroprevalence study in a random sample of 2,124 individuals, aged six to 64 years, representative by age, sex and area in Medellín, Colombia, 2009. Biological and socioeconomic variables were analyzed for their association with serum protection against rubella, according to birth-year cohort; those born before (1954-1990) and after (1991-2003) the introduction of universal immunization. Titer of IgG antibodies against the rubella virus was detected using a high sensitivity (AxSYM® Rubella IgG--Abbott Laboratories) and a high specificity test (VIDAS RUB IgG II®--BioMerieux Laboratories). Proportions and weighted averages derived from a complex sample, including a correction factor for differences in gender participation, were estimated. Association with protection for groups of biological and social variables according to birth cohort was analyzed using a logistic regression model. RESULTS: Titers of IgG antibodies were higher in those born before (mean 110 UI/ml, 95%CI 100.5;120.2) compared to those born after (mean 64 UI/ml; 95%CI 54.4;72.8; p = 0.000) the introduction of mass immunization. The proportion of protection increased from 88.9% in those born 1990-1994, to 89.2% in those born 1995-1999 and to 92.1% in those born between 2000 and 2003, possibly due to boosters being administered from 1998 onwards. In those born before the introduction of the immunization, seroprotection was associated with previous contact with cases (OR 2.6; 95%CI 1.1;5.9), self-perceived health status (OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.05;6.0), educational level (OR 0.2; 95%CI 0.08;0.8) and years of residence in the neighborhood (RD 0,96; 95%CI 0.98;1.0) after adjusting for all variables. In those born after, serum protection was associated with effective sleep time (OR 1,4; 95%CI 1.09;1.8) and self-perceived health status (OR 5.5; 95%CI 1.2;23.8). CONCLUSIONS: The seroprevalence profile changed with the mass immunization plan, with higher titers of IgG antibodies in those born before the start of the immunization. It is recommended that the level of long-term protection be monitored and concerted action taken to improve potentially associated socioeconomic conditions.

[Disease transmission dynamics according to complexity theory]. / La dinámica de la transmisión de la enfermedad según la teoría de la complejidad.

OBJECTIVE: Illustrating disease transmission as a complex system according to complexity theory. METHODS: A SIR mathematical model (S=number susceptible, I=number infectious, and R=number recovered or immune) reflecting disease transmission from the connection between states of susceptibility, infection, disease, recovery and nonlinearity in the interaction between susceptible and infected was simulated. Infection rate temporal fluctuations were described by logistic mapping. RESULTS: Transmission occurs with the reduction of susceptible states as people become infected and sick, followed by an increase in individuals' recovery following diagnosis and treatment. Small increases in infection rate value led to fluctuations in the number of susceptible and exposed people and randomness in the relationship between being susceptible and infected, until converging towards a regular pattern. CONCLUSION: The model reflected the connection between states of susceptibility, nonlinearity and chaotic behavior following small increases in infection rate. A historical and trans-disciplinary perspective could help in understanding transmission complexity and coordinating control options.

[Herd immunity against rubella according to a survey of the population in Medellin, Colombia]. / Inmunidad colectiva contra la rubéola según una encuesta poblacional en Medellín, Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: Calculate the critical proportion (Pc) for achieving herd immunity based on a 2009 population study conducted in Medellin, Colombia, by age, globally and disaggregated by sex, location, and socioeconomic stratum. METHODS: A survey of seroprevalence in the population was conducted by means of a random sample of 2 124 individuals aged 6 to 64 that was representative of age, sex, and location. The basic reproduction number was estimated using a quadratic regression of the average IgG titers for rubella by age in unvaccinated individuals with titers greater than or equal to 15 IU/ml. The effective reproduction number (Re) was calculated with the data on the weighted proportion of protection by age, sex, location, and socioeconomic stratum. RESULTS: Overall, the Pc was 90.0% (95% CI, 88.6-95.2%) and the Re was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.8-1.8), for a weighted proportion of protection of 89.4% (95% CI, 86.8- 91.6%). Protection was lower than the expected Pc in both sexes, in high and low socioeconomic strata, and in the rural area. In the urban area, protection was greater than the Pc (89.4%, with a 95% CI, 86.6-91.7%, compared to 87.4% and a 95% CI, 85.2-87.8%). CONCLUSIONS: The urban area has made progress toward herd immunity, but the overall proportion of protection in women, the rural area, and the high socioeconomic strata must be increased. The effective number may be greater than one, indicating the potential for the spread of the disease.

[Simulating measles and rubella elimination levels according to social stratification and interaction]. / Simulación del nivel de eliminación de sarampión y rubéola según la estratificación e interacción social.

OBJECTIVE: The study was aimed at comparing measles and rubella disease elimination levels in a homogeneous and heterogeneous population according to socioeconomic status with interactions amongst low- and high-income individuals and diversity in the average number of contacts amongst them. METHODS: Effective reproductive rate simulations were deduced from a susceptibleinfected- recovered (SIR) mathematical model according to different immunisation rates using measles (1980 and 2005) and rubella (1998 and 2005) incidence data from Latin-America and the Caribbean. Low- and high-income individuals' social interaction and their average number of contacts were analysed by bipartite random network analysis. MAPLE 12 (Maplesoft Inc, Ontario Canada) software was used for making the simulations. RESULTS: The progress made in eliminating both diseases between both periods of time was reproduced in the socially-homogeneous population. Measles (2005) would be eliminated in high- and low-income groups; however, it would only be achieved in rubella (2005) if there were a high immunity rate amongst the low-income group. If the average number of contacts were varied, then rubella would not be eliminated, even with a 95 % immunity rate. CONCLUSION: Monitoring the elimination level in diseases like measles and rubella requires that socio-economic status be considered as well as the population's interaction pattern. Special attention should be paid to communities having diversity in their average number of contacts occurring in confined spaces such as displaced communities, prisons, educational establishments, or hospitals.