Improved sub-seasonal forecasts to support preparedness action for meningitis outbreak in Africa.

West African countries are hit annually by meningitis outbreaks which occur during the dry season and are linked to atmospheric variability. This paper describes an innovative co-production process between the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD; forecast producer) and the World Health Organisation Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO; forecast user) to support awareness, preparedness and response actions for meningitis outbreaks. Using sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, this co-production enables ACMAD and WHO AFRO to build initiative that increases the production of useful climate services in the health sector. Temperature and relative humidity forecasts are combined with dust forecasts to operationalize a meningitis early warning system (MEWS) across the African meningitis belt with a two-week lead time. To prevent and control meningitis, the MEWS is produced from week 1 to 26 of the year. This study demonstrates that S2S forecasts have good skill at predicting dry and warm atmospheric conditions precede meningitis outbreaks. Vigilance levels objectively defined within the MEWS are consistent with reported cases of meningitis. Alongside developing a MEWS, the co-production process provided a framework for analysis of climate and environmental risks based on reanalysis data, meningitis burden, and health service assessment, to support the development of a qualitative roadmap of country prioritization for defeating meningitis by 2030 across the WHO African region. The roadmap has enabled the identification of countries most vulnerable to meningitis epidemics, and in the context of climate change, supports plans for preventing, preparing, and responding to meningitis outbreaks.

Potential predictability of the Ethiopian summer rains: Understanding local variations and their implications for water management decisions.

Understanding the influence of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric variability on rainfall over Ethiopia has huge potential to improve seasonal forecasting and inform crucial water management decisions at local levels, where data is available at appropriate scales for decision makers. In this study, drivers of Ethiopia's main rainy season, July-September (JAS), are investigated using correlation analysis with sea surface temperature (SST). The analysis showed local spatial variations in the drivers of JAS rainfall. Moreover, the analysis revealed strong correlation between March to May (MAM) SST and JAS rainfall in particular regions. In addition to the influence of SSTs, we highlighted one of the mechanisms explaining the regional pattern of SST influence on Ethiopian rainfall, the East African Low-Level Jet. Moreover, examining the occurrence of large-scale phenomena provided additional information, with very strong ENSO and positive IOD events associated with drier conditions in most part of Ethiopia. A sub-national analysis, focused at a scale relevant for water managers, on the Awash basin, highlighted two distinct climate zones with different relationships to SSTs. June was not included as part of the rainy season as in some areas June is a hot, dry month between rainy seasons and in others it can be used to update sub-seasonal forecasts with lead time of one month for JAS rainfall. This highlights the importance of understanding locally relevant climate systems and ensuing sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts are done at the appropriate scale for water management in the complex topography and climatology of Ethiopia.

Structural DNA profiles: single sequence queries.

Structural DNA profiles use the structural properties of the constituent octamers either to observe any characteristics of a single sequence that are unusual (a single sequence query) or to visualize a pattern common to a set of sequences (a multiple sequence query). They are an aid in understanding structural reasons for functional DNA activity. Profiles that answer single sequence queries are introduced and Profile Manager (a software application developed to automate profile generation) is presented. Two sequences that are similar by their nucleotide composition but are known to be very different by structure are analyzed, resulting in useful illustrations that agree with the experimental nuclear magnetic resonance structures.

Genomic data analysis using DNA structure: an analysis of conserved nongenic sequences and ultraconserved elements.

Recent comparative studies of the human and mouse genomes have revealed sets of conserved nongenic sequences (CNGs) and sets of ultraconserved elements (UCEs). Both sets of sequences, which exhibit extremely high levels of conservation, extend over hundreds of bases and have no known function. Since there is no detectable sequence homology between paralogous CNGs or UCEs in either of the species, an alignment-free technique is needed for their analysis. We have previously compiled a database of the structural properties of all 32,896 unique DNA octamers, including information on stability, the minimum energy conformation, and flexibility. We have used Fourier techniques to analyze the UCEs and CNGs in terms of their octamer structural properties, to reveal structural correlations which may indicate possible functions for some of these sequences.