[Accuracy of clinical prediction of survival for terminally ill cancer patients].

Accurate estimation of survival is vital for effective palliative care. To verify the value of clinical prediction of survival (CPS), a prospective study was performed on 150 terminally ill cancer patients. The CPS was highly correlated with actual survival (AS), but the accuracy was not significantly superior to the prediction by performance status alone. Serious pessimistic error, defined as AS was at least 28 days and twice as long as CPS, was recognized in 13%, while serious optimistic error, defined as AS was less than 28 days and half as long as CPS, in 15%. The frequency of serious error was not significantly different by physicians' experiences, patients' age, sex, primary disease, and metastatic locations, but was significantly higher in cases with better performance status. Also, unexpected changes resulting in death were experienced in 42% of another 186 cases. The main underlying causes were pneumonia, bleeding, heart failure, intestinal perforation, cerebrovascular disease, hepatic/renal failure, hypoglycemia, sepsis and electrolyte imbalance. Clinical prediction was not sufficiently reliable and must be further improved.

[Prediction of survival of terminally ill cancer patients--a prospective study].

Planning effective palliative care requires accurate estimation of survival. A prospective study was performed on 150 hospice inpatients to identify prognostic factors in terminally ill cancer patients. By univariate analysis, eleven factors were found to be significantly associated with shortened survival: poor performance status, dyspnea at rest, death rattle, appetite loss, dysphagia, dry mouth, general malaise, edema, stomatitis, fever, and delirium. Multiple regression analysis showed that five factors were independent predictors of survival: performance status, dyspnea at rest, appetite loss, edema, and delirium. We discussed current problems and future directions of survival prediction for terminally ill cancer patients.

[Percutaneous drainage of a bulla with tuberculous infection in a patient].

A 63-year-old man complaining of low grade fever and dry cough was admitted to our hospital. Chest X-ray showed infiltrative shadows and a bulla with a fluid level in the left upper lung field. Bacteriological examination of sputum and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid did not yield any diagnostic results. Percutaneous aspiration of the bulla under fluoroscopy was performed. Bulla with tuberculous infection was considered because a high ADA level was detected in the fluid of the bulla. A culture of the bulla fluid was positive for mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB), which was sensitive to all anti-mycobacterial drugs. The fluid in the bulla gradually increased, and occupied the entire space of the bulla three months later. Percutaneous aspiration of the bulla was performed again and a fluid smear was positive for TB. It was thought that systemic administration of anti-mycobacterial drugs had been ineffective, so percutaneous drainage and subsequent injection of anti-mycobacterial drugs into the bulla was performed. The fluid in the bulla subsequently disappeared and the bulla shrank gradually. Percutaneous drainage of a bulla with tuberculous infection should be considered in those who do not respond to medical management.

[Two cases of tubercle bacilli infected pulmonary bulla].

Two cases of tubercle bacilli infected bulla are reported. Case 1; A 78-year-old man visited our hospital complaining of fever and chest pain. The chest radiograph revealed the bulla with air fluid level in the left upper lung field. Mycobacterium tuberculosis was detected in the fluid obtained by percutaneous lung aspiration. He was treated with anti-mycobacterial drugs and showed improvement. Case 2; A 66-year-old man visited our hospital complaining of fever, chest pain and dry cough. The chest radiograph revealed the bulla with air fluid level in the left upper lung field. A diagnosis of tubercle bacilli infected bulla was considered because of high level of ADA in the fluid obtained by percutaneous lung aspiration, and anti-mycobacterial drugs were administered. His symptoms were improved and the frequent chest radiograph showed gradual absorption of the fluid. It is suggested that ADA and bacteriological examinations of the fluid obtained by percutaneous lung aspiration are useful for early diagnosis of tubercle bacilli infected bulla.