Prediction of effectiveness of universal rotavirus vaccination in Southwestern Vietnam based on a dynamic mathematical model.

Vaccinating young children against rotavirus (RV) is a promising preventive strategy against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE). We evaluated the relative risk reduction of RVGE induced by universal vaccination in Vietnam through dynamic model analysis. We developed an age-stratified dynamic Vaccinated-Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible model to analyze RV transmission and assess vaccine effectiveness (VE). We assumed 3 different vaccine efficacies: 55%, 70%, and 85%. For model calibration, we used a database of patients under 5 years of age admitted to Ho Chi Minh No.1 Hospital with RVGE between January 2013 and December 2018. Assuming a vaccination rate of 95%, the number of RVGE hospitalizations after 5 years from universal RV vaccination decreased from 92,502 cases to 45,626 with 85% efficacy, to 54,576 cases with 70% efficacy, and to 63,209 cases with 55% efficacy. Additionally, RVGE hospitalizations after 10 years decreased from 177,950 to 89,517 with 85% efficacy and to 121,832 cases with 55% efficacy. The relative risk reductions of RVGE after 10 years were 49.7% with 85% efficacy, 40.6% with 70% efficacy, and 31.5% with 55% efficacy. The VE was 1.10 times (95% CI, 1.01-1.22) higher in the 4-months to 1-year-old age group than in the other age groups (P = 0.038), when applying 85% efficacy with 95% coverage. In conclusion, despite its relatively lower efficacy compared to high-income countries, RV vaccination remains an effective intervention in Southwestern Vietnam. In particular, implementing universal RV vaccination with higher coverage would result in a decrease in RVGE hospitalizations among Vietnamese children under 5 years of age.

Childhood Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Southern Vietnam: Trends and Vaccination Implications From 2012 to 2021.

Background: This retrospective hospital-based surveillance aimed to assess the epidemiology, causative pathogens trend, and serotypes distribution of pneumococcal meningitis among children aged under 5 years with bacterial meningitis in Southern Vietnam after the introduction of pentavalent vaccine in the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI). Methods: From 2012 to 2021, cerebrospinal fluid samples were collected from children aged under 5 years with suspected bacterial meningitis at Children's Hospitals 1 and 2 in Ho Chi Minh City. Probable bacterial meningitis (PBM) cases were identified using biochemistry and cytology. Real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to confirm cases of confirmed bacterial meningitis (CBM) caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, or Neisseria meningitidis. Streptococcus pneumoniae serotyping was performed. Results: Of the 2560 PBM cases, 158 (6.2%) were laboratory-confirmed. The CBM proportion decreased during the 10-year study and was associated with age, seasonality, and permanent residence. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most common pathogen causing bacterial meningitis (86.1%), followed by H influenzae (7.6%) and N meningitidis (6.3%). The case-fatality rate was 8.2% (95% confidence interval, 4.2%-12.2%). Pneumococcal serotypes 6A/B, 19F, 14, and 23F were the most prevalent, and the proportion of pneumococcal meningitis cases caused by the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) serotypes decreased from 96.2% to 57.1% during the PCV eras. Conclusions: Streptococcus pneumoniae is the most frequent causative agent of bacterial meningitis in children aged under 5 years in Southern Vietnam over the last decade. Policymakers may need to consider introducing PCVs into the EPI to effectively prevent and control bacterial meningitis.

Understanding the transmission dynamics of a large-scale measles outbreak in Southern Vietnam.

OBJECTIVES: Southern Vietnam experienced a large measles outbreak of over 26,000 cases during 2018-2020. We aimed to understand and quantify the measles spread in space-time dependence and the transmissibility during the outbreak. METHODS: Measles surveillance reported cases between January 2018 and June 2020, vaccination coverage, and population data at provinicial level were used. To illustrate the spatio-temporal pattern of disease spread, we employed the endemic-epidemic multivariate time series model decomposing measles risk additively into autoregressive, spatio-temporal, and endemic components. Likelihood-based estimation procedures were performed to determine the time-varying reproductive number Re of measles. RESULTS: Our analysis showed that the incidence of measles was associated with vaccination coverage heterogeneity and spatial interaction between provincial units. The risk of infections was dominated by between-province transmission (36.1% to 78.8%), followed by local endogenous transmission (4.1% to 61.5%). In contrast, the endemic behavior had a relatively small contribution (2.4% to 33.4%) across provinces. In the exponential phase of the epidemic, Re was above the threshold with a maximum value of 2.34 (95% CI: 2.20-2.46). CONCLUSION: Local vaccination coverage and human mobility are important factors contributing to the measles dynamics in Southern Vietnam, and the high risk of inter-provincial transmission is of most concern. Strengthening the disease surveillance is recommended, and further research is essential to understand the relative contribution of population immunity and control measures in measles epidemics.

Rotavirus genotype trends from 2013 to 2018 and vaccine effectiveness in southern Vietnam.

OBJECTIVES: Rotavirus (RV) genotypes vary geographically, and this can affect vaccine effectiveness (VE). This study investigated the genotype distribution of RV and explored VE before introducing the RV vaccine to the national immunization programme in Vietnam. METHODS: This hospital-based surveillance study was conducted at Children's Hospital 1, Ho Chi Minh City in 2013-2018. Stool samples and relevant data, including vaccination history, were collected from children aged <5 years who were hospitalized with gastroenteritis. RV was detected using enzyme immunoassays and then genotyped. Children aged ≥6 months were included in the VE analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 5176 children were included in this study. RV was detected in 2421 children (46.8%). RV positivity decreased over the study period and was associated with age, seasonality, location and previous vaccination. Among 1105 RV-positive samples, G3P[8] was the most prevalent genotype (43.1%), followed by G8P[8] (19.7%), G1P[8] (12.9%) and G2P[4] (12.9%). Overall VE was 69.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 53.3-80.6%] in fully vaccinated children and 58.6% (95% CI 44.1-69.4%) in children who had received at least one dose of RV vaccine. VE was highest for G3P[8] (95% CI 75.1-84.5%) and lowest for G2P[4] (95% CI 32.4-57.2%). CONCLUSIONS: RV remains a major cause of acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in southern Vietnam. The RV vaccine is effective, but its effectiveness varies with RV genotype.