Effects of long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution on COVID-19 incidence: A population-based cohort study accounting for SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels in the Netherlands.

Several studies have linked air pollution to COVID-19 morbidity and severity. However, these studies do not account for exposure levels to SARS-CoV-2, nor for different sources of air pollution. We analyzed individual-level data for 8.3 million adults in the Netherlands to assess associations between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and SARS-CoV-2 infection (i.e., positive test) and COVID-19 hospitalisation risks, accounting for spatiotemporal variation in SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels during the first two major epidemic waves (February 2020-February 2021). We estimated average annual concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 at residential addresses, overall and by PM source (road traffic, industry, livestock, other agricultural sources, foreign sources, other Dutch sources), at 1 × 1 km resolution, and weekly SARS-CoV-2 exposure at municipal level. Using generalized additive models, we performed interval-censored survival analyses to assess associations between individuals' average exposure to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 in the three years before the pandemic (2017-2019) and COVID-19-outcomes, adjusting for SARS-CoV-2 exposure, individual and area-specific confounders. In single-pollutant models, per interquartile (IQR) increase in exposure, PM10 was associated with 7% increased infection risk and 16% increased hospitalisation risk, PM2.5 with 8% increased infection risk and 18% increased hospitalisation risk, and NO2 with 3% increased infection risk and 11% increased hospitalisation risk. Bi-pollutant models suggested that effects were mainly driven by PM. Associations for PM were confirmed when stratifying by urbanization degree, epidemic wave and testing policy. All emission sources of PM, except industry, showed adverse effects on both outcomes. Livestock showed the most detrimental effects per unit exposure, whereas road traffic affected severity (hospitalisation) more than infection risk. This study shows that long-term exposure to air pollution increases both SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalisation risks, even after controlling for SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels, and that PM may have differential effects on these COVID-19 outcomes depending on the emission source.

Outdoor air pollution as a risk factor for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2: A nationwide test-negative case-control study in the Netherlands.

Air pollution is a known risk factor for several diseases, but the extent to which it influences COVID-19 compared to other respiratory diseases remains unclear. We performed a test-negative case-control study among people with COVID-19-compatible symptoms who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, to assess whether their long- and short-term exposure to ambient air pollution (AAP) was associated with testing positive (vs. negative) for SARS-CoV-2. We used individual-level data for all adult residents in the Netherlands who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between June and November 2020, when only symptomatic people were tested, and modeled ambient concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 at geocoded residential addresses. In long-term exposure analysis, we selected individuals who did not change residential address in 2017-2019 (1.7 million tests) and considered the average concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 in that period, and different sources of PM (industry, livestock, other agricultural activities, road traffic, other Dutch sources, foreign sources). In short-term exposure analysis, individuals not changing residential address in the two weeks before testing day (2.7 million tests) were included in the analyses, thus considering 1- and 2-week average concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 before testing day as exposure. Mixed-effects logistic regression analysis with adjustment for several confounders, including municipality and testing week to account for spatiotemporal variation in viral circulation, was used. Overall, there was no statistically significant effect of long-term exposure to the studied pollutants on the odds of testing positive vs. negative for SARS-CoV-2. However, significant positive associations of long-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 from specifically foreign and livestock sources, and to PM10 from other agricultural sources, were observed. Short-term exposure to PM10 (adjusting for NO2) and PM2.5 were also positively associated with increased odds of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. While these exposures seemed to increase COVID-19 risk relative to other respiratory diseases, the underlying biological mechanisms remain unclear. This study reinforces the need to continue to strive for better air quality to support public health.

Residential exposure to livestock farms and lung function in adolescence - The PIAMA birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing interest in the impact of air pollution from livestock farming on respiratory health. Studies in adults suggest adverse effects of livestock farm emissions on lung function, but so far, studies involving children and adolescents are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To study the association of residential proximity to livestock farms and modelled particulate matter ≤10 µm (PM10) from livestock farms with lung function in adolescence. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study among 715 participants of the Dutch prospective PIAMA (Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy) birth cohort study. Relationships of different indicators of residential livestock farming exposure (distance to farms, distance-weighted number of farms, cattle, pigs, poultry, horses and goats within 3 km; modelled atmospheric PM10 concentrations from livestock farms) with forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) at age 16 were assessed by linear regression taking into account potential confounders. Associations were expressed per interquartile range increase in exposure. RESULTS: Higher exposure to livestock farming was consistently associated with a lower FEV1, but not with FVC among participants living in less urbanized municipalities (<1500 addresses/km2, N = 402). Shorter distances of homes to livestock farms were associated with a 1.4% (0.2%; 2.7%) lower FEV1. Larger numbers of farms within 3 km and higher concentrations of PM10 from livestock farming were associated with a 1.8% (0.8%, 2.9%) and 0.9% (0.4%,1.5%) lower FEV1, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that higher exposure to livestock farming is associated with a lower FEV1 in adolescents. Replication and more research on the etiologic agents involved in these associations and the underlying mechanisms is needed.

Proximity to livestock farms and COVID-19 in the Netherlands, 2020-2021.

OBJECTIVES: In the Netherlands, during the first phase of the COVID-19 epidemic, the hotspot of COVID-19 overlapped with the country's main livestock area, while in subsequent phases this distinct spatial pattern disappeared. Previous studies show that living near livestock farms influence human respiratory health and immunological responses. This study aimed to explore whether proximity to livestock was associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: The study population was the population of the Netherlands excluding the very strongly urbanised areas and border areas, on January 1, 2019 (12, 628, 244 individuals). The cases are the individuals reported with a laboratory-confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 test with onset before January 1, 2022 (2, 223, 692 individuals). For each individual, we calculated distance to nearest livestock farm (cattle, goat, sheep, pig, poultry, horse, rabbit, mink). The associations between residential (6-digit postal-code) distance to the nearest livestock farm and individuals' SARS-CoV-2 status was studied with multilevel logistic regression models. Models were adjusted for individuals' age categories, the social status of the postal code area, particulate matter (PM10)- and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)-concentrations. We analysed data for the entire period and population as well as separately for eight time periods (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep and Oct-Dec in 2020 and 2021), four geographic areas of the Netherlands (north, east, west and south), and for five age categories (0-14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64 and > 65 years). RESULTS: Over the period 2020-2021, individuals' SARS-CoV-2 status was associated with living closer to livestock farms. This association increased from an Odds Ratio (OR) of 1.01 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.01-1.02) for patients living at a distance of 751-1000 m to a farm to an OR of 1.04 (95% CI 1.04-1.04), 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.07) and 1.11 (95% CI 1.10-1.12) for patients living in the more proximate 501-750 m, 251-500m and 0-250 m zones around farms, all relative to patients living further than 1000 m around farms. This association was observed in three out of four quarters of the year in both 2020 and 2021, and in all studied geographic areas and age groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this exploratory study with individual SARS-CoV-2 notification data and high-resolution spatial data associations were found between living near livestock farms and individuals' SARS-CoV-2 status in the Netherlands. Verification of the results in other countries is warranted, as well as investigations into possible underlying exposures and mechanisms.

Proximity to livestock farms and exposure to livestock-related particulate matter are associated with lower probability of medication dispensing for obstructive airway diseases.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to assess whether medication use for obstructive airway diseases is associated with environmental exposure to livestock farms. Previous studies in the Netherlands at a regional level suggested that asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are less prevalent among persons living near livestock farms. METHODS: A nationwide population-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 7,735,491 persons, with data on the dispensing of drugs for obstructive airway diseases in the Netherlands in 2016. Exposure was based on distances between home addresses and farms and on modelled atmospheric particulate matter (PM10) concentrations from livestock farms. Data were analysed for different regions by logistic regression analyses and adjusted for several individual-level variables, as well as modelled PM10 concentration of non-farm-related air pollution. Results for individual regions were subsequently pooled in meta-analyses. RESULTS: The probability of medication for asthma or COPD being dispensed to adults and children was lower with decreasing distance of their homes to livestock farms, particularly cattle and poultry farms. Increased concentrations of PM10 from cattle were associated with less dispensing of medications for asthma or COPD, as well (meta-analysis OR for 10th-90th percentile increase in concentration of PM10 from cattle farms, 95%CI: 0.92, 0.86-0.97 for adults). However, increased concentrations of PM10 from non-farm sources were positively associated (meta-analysis OR for 10th-90th percentile increase in PM10-concentration, 95%CI: 1.29, 1.09-1.52 for adults). CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the probability of dispensing medication for asthma or COPD is inversely associated with proximity to livestock farms and modelled exposure to livestock-related PM10 in multiple regions within the Netherlands. This finding implies a notable prevented risk: under the assumption of absence of livestock farms in the Netherlands, an estimated 2%-5% more persons (an increase in tens of thousands) in rural areas would receive asthma or COPD medication.

Effects of Dutch livestock production on human health and the environment.

Observed multiple adverse effects of livestock production have led to increasing calls for more sustainable livestock production. Quantitative analysis of adverse effects, which can guide public debate and policy development in this area, is limited and generally scattered across environmental, human health, and other science domains. The aim of this study was to bring together and, where possible, quantify and aggregate the effects of national-scale livestock production on 17 impact categories, ranging from impacts of particulate matter, emerging infectious diseases and odor annoyance to airborne nitrogen deposition on terrestrial nature areas and greenhouse gas emissions. Effects were estimated and scaled to total Dutch livestock production, with system boundaries including feed production, manure management and transport, but excluding slaughtering, retail and consumption. Effects were expressed using eight indicators that directly express Impact in the sense of the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response framework, while the remaining 14 express Pressures or States. Results show that livestock production may contribute both positively and negatively to human health with a human disease burden (expressed in disability-adjusted life years) of up to 4% for three different health effects: those related to particulate matter, zoonoses, and occupational accidents. The contribution to environmental impact ranges from 2% for consumptive water use in the Netherlands to 95% for phosphorus transfer to soils, and extends beyond Dutch borders. While some aggregation across impact categories was possible, notably for burden of disease estimates, further aggregation of disparate indicators would require normative value judgement. Despite difficulty of aggregation, the assessment shows that impacts receive a different contribution of different animal sectors. While some of our results are country-specific, the overall approach is generic and can be adapted and tuned according to specific contexts and information needs in other regions, to allow informed decision making across a broad range of impact categories.

Animal sources for zoonotic transmission of psittacosis: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Human psittacosis, caused by Chlamydia (C.) psittaci, is likely underdiagnosed and underreported, since tests for C. psittaci are often not included in routine microbiological diagnostics. Source tracing traditionally focuses on psittacine pet birds, but recently other animal species have been gaining more attention as possible sources for human psittacosis. This review aims to provide an overview of all suspected animal sources of human psittacosis cases reported in the international literature. In addition, for each animal species the strength of evidence for zoonotic transmission was estimated. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted using four databases (Pubmed, Embase, Scopus and Proquest). Articles were included when there was mention of at least one human case of psittacosis and a possible animal source. Investigators independently extracted data from the included articles and estimated strength of evidence for zoonotic transmission, based on a self-developed scoring system taking into account number of human cases, epidemiological evidence and laboratory test results in human, animals, and the environment. RESULTS: Eighty articles were included, which provided information on 136 different situations of possible zoonotic transmission. The maximum score for zoonotic transmission was highest for turkeys, followed by ducks, owls, and the category 'other poultry'. Articles reporting about zoonotic transmission from unspecified birds, psittaciformes and columbiformes provided a relatively low strength of evidence. A genotypical match between human and animal samples was reported twenty-eight times, including transmission from chickens, turkeys, guinea fowl, peafowl, pigeons, ducks, geese, songbirds, parrot-like birds and owls. CONCLUSIONS: Strong evidence exists for zoonotic transmission from turkeys, chickens and ducks, in addition to the more traditionally reported parrot-like animal sources. Based on our scoring system, the evidence was generally stronger for poultry than for parrot-like birds. Psittaciformes should not be disregarded as an important source of human psittacosis, still clinicians and public health officials should include poultry and birds species other than parrots in medical history and source tracing.

Respiratory syncytial, parainfluenza and influenza virus infection in young children with acute lower respiratory infection in rural Gambia.

Respiratory viral infections contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality worldwide, but representative data from sub-Saharan Africa are needed to inform vaccination strategies. We conducted population-based surveillance in rural Gambia using standardized criteria to identify and investigate children with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). Naso- and oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Each month from February through December 2015, specimens from 50 children aged 2-23 months were randomly selected to test for respiratory syncytial (RSV), parainfluenza (PIV) and influenza viruses. The expected number of viral-associated ALRI cases in the population was estimated using statistical simulation that accounted for the sampling design. RSV G and F proteins and influenza hemagglutinin genes were sequenced. 2385 children with ALRI were enrolled, 519 were randomly selected for viral testing. One or more viruses were detected in 303/519 children (58.4%). RSV-A was detected in 237 and RSV-B in seven. The expected incidence of ALRI associated with RSV, PIV or influenza was 140 cases (95% CI, 131-149) per 1000 person-years; RSV incidence was 112 cases (95% CI, 102-122) per 1000 person-years. Multiple strains of RSV and influenza circulated during the year. RSV circulated throughout most of the year and was associated with eight times the number of ALRI cases compared to PIV or IV. Gambian RSV viruses were closely related to viruses detected in other continents. An effective RSV vaccination strategy could have a major impact on the burden of ALRI in this setting.

Risk of pneumonia among residents living near goat and poultry farms during 2014-2016.

In the Netherlands, an association was found between the prevalence of pneumonia and living near goat and poultry farms in 2007-2013. This association then led to regulatory decisions to restrict the building of new goat farms and to reduce emissions of poultry farms. Confirmation of these results, however, is required because the period of previous analyses overlapped a Q-fever epidemic in 2007-2010. To confirm the association, we performed a population-based study during 2014-2016 based on general practitioner (GP) data. Electronic medical records of 90,183 persons were used to analyze the association between pneumonia and the population living in the proximity (within 500-2000 m distance) of goat and poultry farms. Data were analyzed with three types of logistic regression (with and without GP practice as a random intercept and with stratified analyses per GP practice) and a kernel model to discern the influence of different statistical methods on the outcomes. In all regression analyses involving adults, a statistically significant association between pneumonia and residence within 500 meters of goat farms was found (odds ratio [OR] range over all analyses types: 1.33-1.60), with a decreasing OR for increasing distances. In kernel analyses (including all ages), a population-attributable risk between 6.0 and 7.8% was found for a distance of 2000 meters in 2014-2016. The associations were consistent across all years and robust for mutual adjustment for proximity to other animals and for several other sensitivity analyses. However, associations with proximity to poultry farms are not supported by the present study. As the causes of the elevated pneumonia incidence in persons living close to goat farms remain unknown, further research into potential mechanisms is required for adequate prevention.

Temporal and spatial analysis of psittacosis in association with poultry farming in the Netherlands, 2000-2015.

BACKGROUND: Human psittacosis is a highly under diagnosed zoonotic disease, commonly linked to psittacine birds. Psittacosis in birds, also known as avian chlamydiosis, is endemic in poultry, but the risk for people living close to poultry farms is unknown. Therefore, our study aimed to explore the temporal and spatial patterns of human psittacosis infections and identify possible associations with poultry farming in the Netherlands. METHODS: We analysed data on 700 human cases of psittacosis notified between 01-01-2000 and 01-09-2015. First, we studied the temporal behaviour of psittacosis notifications by applying wavelet analysis. Then, to identify possible spatial patterns, we applied spatial cluster analysis. Finally, we investigated the possible spatial association between psittacosis notifications and data on the Dutch poultry sector at municipality level using a multivariable model. RESULTS: We found a large spatial cluster that covered a highly poultry-dense area but additional clusters were found in areas that had a low poultry density. There were marked geographical differences in the awareness of psittacosis and the amount and the type of laboratory diagnostics used for psittacosis, making it difficult to draw conclusions about the correlation between the large cluster and poultry density. The multivariable model showed that the presence of chicken processing plants and slaughter duck farms in a municipality was associated with a higher rate of human psittacosis notifications. The significance of the associations was influenced by the inclusion or exclusion of farm density in the model. CONCLUSIONS: Our temporal and spatial analyses showed weak associations between poultry-related variables and psittacosis notifications. Because of the low number of psittacosis notifications available for analysis, the power of our analysis was relative low. Because of the exploratory nature of this research, the associations found cannot be interpreted as evidence for airborne transmission of psittacosis from poultry to the general population. Further research is needed to determine the prevalence of C. psittaci in Dutch poultry. Also, efforts to promote PCR-based testing for C. psittaci and genotyping for source tracing are important to reduce the diagnostic deficit, and to provide better estimates of the human psittacosis burden, and the possible role of poultry.

Coxiella burnetii (Q fever) prevalence in associated populations of humans and small ruminants in The Gambia.

OBJECTIVES: To simultaneously estimate the prevalence of antibodies against Coxiella burnetii (Q fever) among adults and small ruminants, and C. burnetii shedding prevalence among small ruminants in households in the Kiang West district of The Gambia, and to assess associated risk factors. METHODS: Sera of 599 adults and 615 small ruminants from 125 compounds within 12 villages were tested for antibodies against C. burnetii using ELISA. Vaginal swabs and milk samples of 155 small ruminants were tested using PCR to investigate shedding of C. burnetii. RESULTS: A total of 3.8-9.7% of adults, depending on ELISA test cut-off, and 24.9% of small ruminants in Kiang West were seropositive. Having at least one seropositive animal in one's compound was a risk factor for human seropositivity (OR: 3.35, 95% CI: 1.09-14.44). A grazing area within a village was a risk factor for seropositivity in small ruminants (OR: 2.07, 95% CI: 1.26-3.50); others were having lambed (OR: 2.75, 95% CI: 1.37-5.76) and older age of the animals (OR: 2.75, 95% CI: 1.37-5.76 for 1-3 years and OR 5.84, 95% CI: 3.10-11.64 for >3 years); 57.4% of sampled small ruminants were shedding C. burnetii. CONCLUSION: Coxiella burnetii infection is endemic among both humans and small ruminants in this area of The Gambia. Human and animal exposure to C. burnetii were related at compound level. Further research into the clinical relevance of C. burnetii infection in West Africa is needed.

Low Seroprevalence of Brucellosis in Humans and Small Ruminants in the Gambia.

BACKGROUND: Brucellosis is a worldwide zoonosis with significant impact on rural livelihoods and a potentially underestimated contributor to febrile illnesses. The aim of this study was to estimate the seroprevalence of brucellosis in humans and small ruminants in The Gambia. METHODS: The study was carried out in rural and urban areas. In 12 rural villages in Kiang West district, sera were collected from humans (n = 599) and small ruminants (n = 623) from the same compounds. From lactating small ruminants, milk samples and vaginal swabs were obtained. At the urban study sites, sera were collected from small ruminants (n = 500) from slaughterhouses and livestock markets. Information on possible risk factors for seropositivity was collected through questionnaires. Sera were screened for antibodies against Brucella spp. with the Rose Bengal Test, ELISA and Micro Agglutination Test (human sera only). PCR was performed on 10 percent of the milk samples and vaginal swabs from small ruminants. RESULTS: One human and 14 sheep sera were positive by the Rose Bengal Test. The rest were negative in all serological tests used. The PCR results were all negative. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that brucellosis is currently not a generalized problem in humans or small ruminants in The Gambia.

Did Neoliberalizing West African Forests Produce a New Niche for Ebola?

A recent study introduced a vaccine that controls Ebola Makona, the Zaire ebolavirus variant that has infected 28,000 people in West Africa. We propose that even such successful advances are insufficient for many emergent diseases. We review work hypothesizing that Makona, phenotypically similar to much smaller outbreaks, emerged out of shifts in land use brought about by neoliberal economics. The epidemiological consequences demand a new science that explicitly addresses the foundational processes underlying multispecies health, including the deep-time histories, cultural infrastructure, and global economic geographies driving disease emergence. The approach, for instance, reverses the standard public health practice of segregating emergency responses and the structural context from which outbreaks originate. In Ebola's case, regional neoliberalism may affix the stochastic "friction" of ecological relationships imposed by the forest across populations, which, when above a threshold, keeps the virus from lining up transmission above replacement. Export-led logging, mining, and intensive agriculture may depress such functional noise, permitting novel spillovers larger forces of infection. Mature outbreaks, meanwhile, can continue to circulate even in the face of efficient vaccines. More research on these integral explanations is required, but the narrow albeit welcome success of the vaccine may be used to limit support of such a program.

The dawn of Structural One Health: a new science tracking disease emergence along circuits of capital.

The One Health approach integrates health investigations across the tree of life, including, but not limited to, wildlife, livestock, crops, and humans. It redresses an epistemological alienation at the heart of much modern population health, which has long segregated studies by species. Up to this point, however, One Health research has also omitted addressing fundamental structural causes underlying collapsing health ecologies. In this critical review we unpack the relationship between One Health science and its political economy, particularly the conceptual and methodological trajectories by which it fails to incorporate social determinants of epizootic spillover. We also introduce a Structural One Health that addresses the research gap. The new science, open to incorporating developments across the social sciences, addresses foundational processes underlying multispecies health, including the place-specific deep-time histories, cultural infrastructure, and economic geographies driving disease emergence. We introduce an ongoing project on avian influenza to illustrate Structural One Health's scope and ambition. For the first time researchers are quantifying the relationships among transnational circuits of capital, associated shifts in agroecological landscapes, and the genetic evolution and spatial spread of a xenospecific pathogen.

Test and cull of high risk Coxiella burnetii infected pregnant dairy goats is not feasible due to poor test performance.

A major human Q fever epidemic occurred in The Netherlands during 2007-2009. In response, all pregnant goats from infected herds were culled before the 2010 kidding season without individual testing. The aim of this study was to assess whether high risk animals from recently infected naive herds can be identified by diagnostic testing. Samples of uterine fluid, milk and vaginal mucus from 203 euthanized pregnant goats were tested by PCR or ELISA. The results suggest that testing followed by culling of only the high risk animals is not a feasible method for protecting public health, mainly due to the low specificity of the tests and variability between herds. The risk of massive bacterial shedding during abortion or parturition can only be prevented by removal of all pregnant animals from naive recently infected herds.

Dairy goat demography and Q fever infection dynamics.

Between 2007 and 2009, the largest human Q fever epidemic ever described occurred in the Netherlands. The source was traced back to dairy goat farms, where abortion storms had been observed since 2005. Since one putative cause of these abortion storms is the intensive husbandry systems in which the goats are kept, the objective of this study was to assess whether these could be explained by herd size, reproductive pattern and other demographic aspects of Dutch dairy goat herds alone. We adapted an existing, fully parameterized simulation model for Q fever transmission in French dairy cattle herds to represent the demographics typical for Dutch dairy goat herds. The original model represents the infection dynamics in a herd of 50 dairy cows after introduction of a single infected animal; the adapted model has 770 dairy goats. For a full comparison, herds of 770 cows and 50 goats were also modeled. The effects of herd size and goat versus cattle demographics on the probability of and time to extinction of the infection, environmental bacterial load and abortion rate were studied by simulation. The abortion storms could not be fully explained by demographics alone. Adequate data were lacking at the moment to attribute the difference to characteristics of the pathogen, host, within-herd environment, or a combination thereof. The probability of extinction was higher in goat herds than in cattle herds of the same size. The environmental contamination was highest within cattle herds, which may be taken into account when enlarging cattle farming systems.

Pathogen-host-environment interplay and disease emergence.

Gaining insight in likely disease emergence scenarios is critical to preventing such events from happening. Recent focus has been on emerging zoonoses and on identifying common patterns and drivers of emerging diseases. However, no overarching framework exists to integrate knowledge on all emerging infectious disease events. Here, we propose such a conceptual framework based on changes in the interplay of pathogens, hosts and environment that lead to the formation of novel disease patterns and pathogen genetic adjustment. We categorize infectious disease emergence events into three groups: (i) pathogens showing up in a novel host, ranging from spill-over, including zoonoses, to complete species jumps; (ii) mutant pathogens displaying novel traits in the same host, including an increase in virulence, antimicrobial resistance and host immune escape; and (iii) disease complexes emerging in a new geographic area, either through range expansion or through long distance jumps. Each of these categories is characterized by a typical set of drivers of emergence, matching pathogen trait profiles, disease ecology and transmission dynamics. Our framework may assist in disentangling and structuring the rapidly growing amount of available information on infectious diseases. Moreover, it may contribute to a better understanding of how human action changes disease landscapes globally.

Experimental inoculation of male rats with Coxiella burnetii: successful infection but no transmission to cage mates.

Beginning in 2007, the largest human Q fever outbreak ever described occurred in the Netherlands. Dairy goats from intensive farms were identified as the source, amplifying Coxiella burnetii during gestation and shedding large quantities during abortions. It has been postulated that wild rodents are reservoir hosts from which C. burnetii can be transmitted to domestic animals and humans. However, little is known about the infection dynamics of C. burnetii in wild rodents. The aim of this study was to investigate whether brown rats (Rattus norvegicus) can be experimentally infected with C. burnetii and whether transmission to a cage mates occurs. Fourteen male brown rats (wild type) were intratracheally or intranasally inoculated with a Dutch C. burnetii isolate obtained from a goat. At 3 days postinoculation, a contact rat was placed with each inoculated rat. The pairs were monitored using blood samples and rectal and throat swabs for 8 weeks, and after euthanasia the spleens were collected. Rats became infected by both inoculation routes, and detection of C. burnetii DNA in swabs suggests that excretion occurred. However, based on the negative spleens in PCR and the lack of seroconversion, none of the contact animals was considered infected; thus, no transmission was observed. The reproduction ratio R(0) was estimated to be 0 (95% confidence interval = 0 to 0.6), indicating that it is unlikely that rats act as reservoir host of C. burnetii through sustained transmission between male rats. Future research should focus on other transmission routes, such as vertical transmission or bacterial shedding during parturition.

Detection of Coxiella burnetii DNA in inhalable airborne dust samples from goat farms after mandatory culling.

Coxiella burnetii is thought to infect humans primarily via airborne transmission. However, air measurements of C. burnetii are sparse. We detected C. burnetii DNA in inhalable and PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic size of 10 µm or less) dust samples collected at three affected goat farms, demonstrating that low levels of C. burnetii DNA are present in inhalable size fractions.

Modelling the effect of heterogeneity of shedding on the within herd Coxiella burnetii spread and identification of key parameters by sensitivity analysis.

Coxiella burnetii is the bacterium responsible for Q fever, a worldwide zoonosis. Ruminants, especially cattle, are recognized as the most important source of human infections. Although a great heterogeneity between shedder cows has been described, no previous studies have determined which features such as shedding route and duration or the quantity of bacteria shed have the strongest impact on the environmental contamination and thus on the zoonotic risk. Our objective was to identify key parameters whose variation highly influences C. burnetii spread within a dairy cattle herd, especially those related to the heterogeneity of shedding. To compare the impact of epidemiological parameters on different dynamical aspects of C. burnetii infection, we performed a sensitivity analysis on an original stochastic model describing the bacterium spread and representing the individual variability of the shedding duration, routes and intensity as well as herd demography. This sensitivity analysis consisted of a principal component analysis followed by an ANOVA. Our findings show that the most influential parameters are the probability distribution governing the levels of shedding, especially in vaginal mucus and faeces, the characteristics of the bacterium in the environment (i.e. its survival and the fraction of bacteria shed reaching the environment), and some physiological parameters related to the intermittency of shedding (transition probability from a non-shedding infected state to a shedding state) or to the transition from one type of shedder to another one (transition probability from a seronegative shedding state to a seropositive shedding state). Our study is crucial for the understanding of the dynamics of C. burnetii infection and optimization of control measures. Indeed, as control measures should impact the parameters influencing the bacterium spread most, our model can now be used to assess the effectiveness of different control strategies of Q fever within dairy cattle herds.