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1.
Int J Biometeorol ; 2024 May 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38722337

RESUMEN

Phenological shifts are one of the most visible signs of climatic variability and change in the biosphere. However, modeling plant phenological responses has always been a key challenge due to climatic variability and plant adaptation. Grapevine is a phenologically sensitive crop and, thus, its developmental stages are affected by the increase in temperature. The goal of this study was to develop a temperature-based grapevine phenology model (GPM) for predicting key developmental stages for different table grape cultivars for a non-traditional viticulture zone in south Asia. Experiments were conducted in two vineyards at two locations (Chakwal and Islamabad) in the Pothawar region of Pakistan during the 2019 and 2020 growing seasons for four cultivars including Perlette, King's Ruby, Sugraone and NARC Black. Detailed phenological observations were obtained starting in January until harvest of the grapes. The Mitscherlich monomolecular equation was used to develop the phenology model for table grapes. There was a strong non-linear correlation between the Eichhorn and Lorenz phenological (ELP) scale and growing degree days (GDD) for all cultivars with coefficient of determinations (R2) ranging from 0.90 to 0.94. The results for model development indicated that GPM was able to predict phenological stages with high skill scores, i.e., a root mean square (RMSE) of 2.14 to 2.78 and mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.86 to 2.26 days. The prediction variability of the model for the onset timings of phenological stages was up to 3 days. The results also reveal that the phenology model based on GDD approach provides an efficient planning tool for viticulture industry in different grape growing regions. The proposed methodology, being a simpler one, can be easily applied to other regions and cultivars as a predictor for grapevine phenology.

2.
Int J Biometeorol ; 68(6): 1213-1228, 2024 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38538982

RESUMEN

Crop simulation models are valuable tools for decision making regarding evaluation and crop improvement under different field conditions. CSM-CROPGRO model integrates genotype, environment and crop management portfolios to simulate growth, development and yield. Modeling the safflower response to varied climate regimes are needed to strengthen its productivity dynamics. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the performance of DSSAT-CSM-CROPGRO-Safflower (Version 4.8.2) under diverse climatic conditions. The model was calibrated using the field observations for phenology, biomass and safflower grain yield (SGY) of the year 2016-17. Estimation of genetic coefficients was performed using GLUE (Genetic Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) program. Simulated results for days to flowering, maturity, biomass at flowering and maturity and SGY were predicted reasonably with good statistical indices. Model evaluation results elucidate phenological events with low root mean square error (6.32 and 6.52) and high d-index (0.95 and 0.96) for days to flowering and maturity respectively for all genotypes and climate conditions. Fair prediction of safflower biomass at flowering and maturity showed low RMSE (887.3 and 564.3 kg ha-1) and high d-index (0.67 and 0.93) for the studied genotypes across the environments. RMSE for validated safflower grain yield (101.8 kg ha-1) and d-index (0.95) depicted that model outperformed for all genotypes and growing conditions. Longer appropriate growing conditions at NARC-Islamabad took optimal duration to assimilate photosynthetic products lead to higher grain yield. Safflower resilience to different environments showed that it can be used as an alternate crop for different agroecological regions. Furthermore, CROPGRO-Safflower model can be used as tool to further evaluate inclusion of safflower in the existing cropping systems of studied regions.


Asunto(s)
Biomasa , Carthamus tinctorius , Carthamus tinctorius/crecimiento & desarrollo , Carthamus tinctorius/genética , Simulación por Computador , Modelos Teóricos , Genotipo , Flores/crecimiento & desarrollo , Flores/genética , Clima
3.
Sci Total Environ ; 917: 170305, 2024 Mar 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38278227

RESUMEN

The stability of winter wheat-flowering-date is crucial for ensuring consistent and robust crop performance across diverse climatic conditions. However, the impact of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates remains uncertain. This study aims to elucidate the influence of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates, predict how projected future climate conditions will affect flowering date stability, and identify the most stable wheat genotypes in the study region. We applied a multi-locus genotype-based (MLG-based) model for simulating wheat-flowering-dates, which we calibrated and evaluated using observed data from the Northern China winter wheat region (NCWWR). This MLG-based model was employed to project flowering dates under different climate scenarios. The simulated flowering dates were then used to assess the stability of flowering dates under varying allelic combinations in projected climatic conditions. Our MLG-based model effectively simulated flowering dates, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.3 days, explaining approximately 88.5 % of the genotypic variation in flowering dates among 100 wheat genotypes. We found that, in comparison to the baseline climate, wheat-flowering-dates are expected to shift earlier within the target sowing window by approximately 11 and 14 days by 2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed that wheat-flowering-date stability is likely to be further strengthened under projected climate scenarios due to early flowering trends. Ultimately, we demonstrate that the combination of Vrn and Ppd genes, rather than individual Vrn or Ppd genes, plays a critical role in wheat-flowering-date stability. Our results suggest that the combination of Ppd-D1a with winter genotypes carrying the vrn-D1 allele significantly contributes to flowering date stability under current and projected climate scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights for wheat breeders and producers under future climatic conditions.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Triticum , Triticum/genética , Flores , Genotipo , Estaciones del Año
4.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 9317, 2023 Jun 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37291159

RESUMEN

Communication theory suggests that interactive dialog rather than information transmission is necessary for climate change action, especially for complex systems like agriculture. Climate analogs-locations whose current climate is similar to a target location's future climate-have garnered recent interest as transmitting more relatable information; however, they have unexplored potential in facilitating meaningful dialogs, and whether the way the analogs are developed could make a difference. We developed climate context-specific analogs based on agriculturally-relevant climate metrics for US specialty crop production, and explored their potential for facilitating dialogs on climate adaptation options. Over 80% of US specialty crop counties had acceptable US analogs for the mid-twenty-first century, especially in the West and Northeast which had greater similarities in the crops produced across target-analog pairs. Western counties generally had analogs to the south, and those in other regions had them to the west. A pilot dialog of target-analog pairs showed promise in eliciting actionable adaptation insights, indicating potential value in incorporating analog-driven dialogs more broadly in climate change communication.


Asunto(s)
Agricultura , Cambio Climático , Producción de Cultivos , Adaptación Fisiológica , Aclimatación
5.
Int J Biometeorol ; 67(5): 745-759, 2023 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36943495

RESUMEN

Progressive warming of the grape growing regions has reduced the land capability for sustainable grapevine production and the geographical distribution of grapes. Bud burst, blooming, berry set, veraison, and harvest are the key phenological stages of grapevine, and are crucial for managing vineyard activities. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of seasonal temperature variability on the timing of key phenological stages of table grape cultivars in a new emerging viticulture region, i.e., the Pothwar region of Pakistan. Phenological stages of four table grape cultivars were recorded during two consecutive growing seasons at two locations. All phenological stages were attained earlier for the relatively warmer location, i.e., Chakwal. Similarly, the length of the growing season from bud burst to harvest was 15 to 21 days longer for the 2020 growing season than for the 2019 growing season, which corresponds to the inter-annual temperature variability. Moreover, the grapevine cultivars showed a distinct response for each growth phase; cv. Perlette matured earlier while cv. NARC Black was the last to ripen. Despite the large variability in the length of the active growing period from bud burst to harvest, accumulated growing degree days (GDD) varied only in a narrow range, i.e., 1510-1557 for cv. Perlette, 1641-1683 for cv. King's Ruby, 1744-1770 for cv. Sugraone, and 1869-1906 for cv. NARC Black. This implies that seasonal temperature variability using GDD is a better indicator for the phenology of table grape cultivars compared to regular time. It is clear from the results from this study that the variation in phenological responses of table grape cultivars due to temperature differences necessitates genotype and site-specific vineyard management.


Asunto(s)
Temperatura , Vitis , Cambio Climático , Frutas , Reproducción , Estaciones del Año
6.
Sci Total Environ ; 879: 163031, 2023 Jun 25.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36972885

RESUMEN

World food production must increase in the coming years with minimal environmental impact for food and nutrition security. Circular Agriculture has emerged as an approach to minimize non-renewable resource depletion and encourage by-product reuse. The goal of this study was to evaluate Circular Agriculture as a tool to increase food production and N recovery. The assessment was conducted for two Brazilian farms (Farm 1; Farm 2) with Oxisols under no-till and a diversified cropping system, including five species of grain, three cover crop species, and sweet potato. Both farms implemented an annual two-crop rotation and an integrated crop-livestock system with beef cattle confined for 2-years. Grain and forage from the fields, leftovers from silos, and crop residues were used as cattle feed. Grain yield was 4.8 and 4.5 t ha-1 for soybean, 12.5 and 12.1 t ha-1 for maize, and 2.6 and 2.4 t ha-1 for common bean, for Farm 1 and Farm 2, respectively, which is higher than the national average. The animals gained 1.2 kg day-1 of live weight. Farm 1 exported 246 kg ha-1 year-1 of N in grains, tubers, and animals, while 216 kg ha-1 year-1 was added as fertilizer and N to cattle. Farm 2 exported 224 kg ha-1 year-1 in grain and animals, while 215 kg ha-1 year-1 was added as fertilizer and N to cattle. Circular practices, i.e., no-till, crop rotation, year-round soil covered, maize intercropped with brachiaria ruziziensis, biological N fixation, and crop-livestock integration, increased crop yield and decreased N application by 14.7 % (Farm 1) and 4.3 % (Farm 2). 85 % of the N consumed by the confined animals was excreted and converted into organic compost. Overall, circular practices associated with adequate crop management allowed recovering high rate of applied N, reducing environmental impacts, and increasing food production with lower production costs.


Asunto(s)
Agricultura , Fertilizantes , Animales , Bovinos , Granjas , Ambiente , Suelo , Productos Agrícolas , Zea mays
7.
Heliyon ; 9(3): e14201, 2023 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36923856

RESUMEN

The Cropping System Model (CSM)-MANIHOT-Cassava provides the opportunity to determine target environments for cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) yield trials by simulating growth and yield data for various environments. The aim of this research was to investigate whether cassava production on paddy fields in Northeast, Thailand could be grouped into mega-environments using the model. Simulations for four different cassava genotypes grown on paddy field following rice harvest was conducted for various soil types and the weather data from 1988 to 2017. The genotype main effect plus genotype by environment interaction (GGE biplot) technique was used to group the mega-environments. The analyses of yearly data showed inconsistent results across years for environment grouping and for the winning genotypes of the individual environment group. An analysis using GGE biplot with the average value of the simulated storage root dry weight (SDW) for 30 years indicated that all 41 environments were grouped into two different mega-environments. This study demonstrated the ability of the CSM-MANIHOT-Cassava to help identify the mega-environments for cassava yield trials on paddy field during off-season of rice that could help reduce both time and resources.

8.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 765, 2023 02 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36765112

RESUMEN

Extreme weather events threaten food security, yet global assessments of impacts caused by crop waterlogging are rare. Here we first develop a paradigm that distils common stress patterns across environments, genotypes and climate horizons. Second, we embed improved process-based understanding into a farming systems model to discern changes in global crop waterlogging under future climates. Third, we develop avenues for adapting cropping systems to waterlogging contextualised by environment. We find that yield penalties caused by waterlogging increase from 3-11% historically to 10-20% by 2080, with penalties reflecting a trade-off between the duration of waterlogging and the timing of waterlogging relative to crop stage. We document greater potential for waterlogging-tolerant genotypes in environments with longer temperate growing seasons (e.g., UK, France, Russia, China), compared with environments with higher annualised ratios of evapotranspiration to precipitation (e.g., Australia). Under future climates, altering sowing time and adoption of waterlogging-tolerant genotypes reduces yield penalties by 18%, while earlier sowing of winter genotypes alleviates waterlogging by 8%. We highlight the serendipitous outcome wherein waterlogging stress patterns under present conditions are likely to be similar to those in the future, suggesting that adaptations for future climates could be designed using stress patterns realised today.


Asunto(s)
Aclimatación , Agua , Estaciones del Año , Adaptación Fisiológica , Agricultura
9.
J Sci Food Agric ; 103(3): 1247-1260, 2023 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36085598

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Consumers of grapefruit require consistent fruit quality with a good physical appearance and taste. The air temperature during the growing season affects both the external (external color index (ECI)) and internal (titratable acidity (TA) and total soluble solids ratio (TSS/TA)) fruit quality of grapefruit. The objective of this study was to develop computer models that encompass the relationship between preharvest air temperature and fruit quality to predict fruit quality of grapefruit at harvest. RESULTS: There was a logarithmic relationship between the number of days with a daily minimum air temperature ≤13 °C and ECI, with a greater number of days resulting in higher ECI. In addition, there was a second-order polynomial relationship between the number of hours ≥21 °C and both TA and TSS/TA, with a greater number of hours resulting in lower TA and higher TSS/TA. Model performance for predicting the ECI, TA, and TSS/TA during 2004-05 and 2005-06 growing seasons was good, with Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) values for each season of 0.835 and 0.917 respectively for ECI, 0.896 and 0.965 respectively for TA and 0.898 and 0.966 respectively for TSS/TA. Applying the model to statistical survey data covering 13 growing seasons demonstrated that the TSS/TA model was robust. CONCLUSION: Statistical models were developed that predicted the development of grapefruit ECI, TA, and TSS/TA. The TSS/TA model was confirmed after application to long-term statistical survey data covering 13 growing seasons. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.


Asunto(s)
Citrus paradisi , Temperatura , Percepción del Gusto , Estaciones del Año , Frutas
10.
One Earth ; 5(7): 756-766, 2022 Jul 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35898653

RESUMEN

Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events.

11.
J Exp Bot ; 73(16): 5715-5729, 2022 09 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35728801

RESUMEN

Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change. Here, we explore the performance of a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effect of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components, on two sites located in a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The experiment was conducted for 6 years and provided 50 combinations of sowing date, sowing density and growing season. We show that the MME simulates seasonal growth of wheat well under standard sowing conditions, but fails under early sowing and high sowing rates. The comparison between observed and simulated in-season fraction of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) for early sown wheat shows that the MME does not capture the decrease of crop above ground biomass during winter months due to senescence. Models need to better account for tiller competition for light, nutrients, and water during vegetative growth, and early tiller senescence and tiller mortality, which are exacerbated by early sowing, high sowing densities, and warmer winter temperatures.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Triticum , Biomasa , Estaciones del Año , Temperatura
12.
Glob Chang Biol ; 28(8): 2689-2710, 2022 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35043531

RESUMEN

Crop models are powerful tools to support breeding because of their capability to explore genotype × environment×management interactions that can help design promising plant types under climate change. However, relationships between plant traits and model parameters are often model specific and not necessarily direct, depending on how models formulate plant morphological and physiological features. This hinders model application in plant breeding. We developed a novel trait-based multi-model ensemble approach to improve the design of rice plant types for future climate projections. We conducted multi-model simulations targeting enhanced productivity, and aggregated results into model-ensemble sets of phenotypic traits as defined by breeders rather than by model parameters. This allowed to overcome the limitations due to ambiguities in trait-parameter mapping from single modelling approaches. Breeders' knowledge and perspective were integrated to provide clear mapping from designed plant types to breeding traits. Nine crop models from the AgMIP-Rice Project and sensitivity analysis techniques were used to explore trait responses under different climate and management scenarios at four sites. The method demonstrated the potential of yield improvement that ranged from 15.8% to 41.5% compared to the current cultivars under mid-century climate projections. These results highlight the primary role of phenological traits to improve crop adaptation to climate change, as well as traits involved with canopy development and structure. The variability of plant types derived with different models supported model ensembles to handle related uncertainty. Nevertheless, the models agreed in capturing the effect of the heterogeneity in climate conditions across sites on key traits, highlighting the need for context-specific breeding programmes to improve crop adaptation to climate change. Although further improvement is needed for crop models to fully support breeding programmes, a trait-based ensemble approach represents a major step towards the integration of crop modelling and breeding to address climate change challenges and develop adaptation options.


Asunto(s)
Oryza , Adaptación Fisiológica , Cambio Climático , Oryza/genética , Fenotipo , Fitomejoramiento
13.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 29(13): 18967-18988, 2022 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34705205

RESUMEN

Future climate scenarios are predicting considerable threats to sustainable maize production in arid and semi-arid regions. These adverse impacts can be minimized by adopting modern agricultural tools to assess and develop successful adaptation practices. A multi-model approach (climate and crop) was used to assess the impacts and uncertainties of climate change on maize crop. An extensive field study was conducted to explore the temporal thermal variations on maize hybrids grown at farmer's fields for ten sowing dates during two consecutive growing years. Data about phenology, morphology, biomass development, and yield were recorded by adopting standard procedures and protocols. The CSM-CERES, APSIM, and CSM-IXIM-Maize models were calibrated and evaluated. Five GCMs among 29 were selected based on classification into different groups and uncertainty to predict climatic changes in the future. The results predicted that there would be a rise in temperature (1.57-3.29 °C) during the maize growing season in five General Circulation Models (GCMs) by using RCP 8.5 scenarios for the mid-century (2040-2069) as compared with the baseline (1980-2015). The CERES-Maize and APSIM-Maize model showed lower root mean square error values (2.78 and 5.41), higher d-index (0.85 and 0.87) along reliable R2 (0.89 and 0.89), respectively for days to anthesis and maturity, while the CSM-IXIM-Maize model performed well for growth parameters (leaf area index, total dry matter) and yield with reasonably good statistical indices. The CSM-IXIM-Maize model performed well for all hybrids during both years whereas climate models, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-MR, showed less uncertain results for climate change impacts. Maize models along GCMs predicted a reduction in yield (8-55%) than baseline. Maize crop may face a high yield decline that could be overcome by modifying the sowing dates and fertilizer (fertigation) and heat and drought-tolerant hybrids.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Zea mays , Agricultura/métodos , Modelos Climáticos , Incertidumbre
14.
Nat Food ; 3(6): 437-444, 2022 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37118037

RESUMEN

The global production of processing tomatoes is concentrated in a small number of regions where climate change could have a notable impact on the future supply. Process-based tomato models project that the production in the main producing countries (the United States, Italy and China, representing 65% of global production) will decrease 6% by 2050 compared with the baseline period of 1980-2009. The predicted reduction in processing tomato production is due to a projected increase in air temperature. Under an ensemble of projected climate scenarios, California and Italy might not be able to sustain current levels of processing tomato production due to water resource constraints. Cooler producing regions, such as China and the northern parts of California, stand to improve their competitive advantage. The projected environmental changes indicate that the main growing regions of processing tomatoes might change in the coming decades.

15.
Field Crops Res ; 267: 108140, 2021 Jun 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34140751

RESUMEN

Cassava is an important crop in the developing world. The goal of this study was to review published cassava models (18) for their capability to simulate storage root biomass and to categorize them into static and dynamic models. The majority (14) are dynamic and capture within season growth dynamics. Most (13) of the dynamic models consider environmental factors such as temperature, solar radiation, soil water and nutrient restrictions. More than half (10) have been calibrated for a distinct genotype. Only one of the four static models includes environmental variables. While the static regression models are useful to estimate final yield, their application is limited to the locations or varieties used for their development unless recalibrated for distinct conditions. Dynamic models simulate growth process and provide estimates of yield over time with, in most cases, no fixed maturity date. The dynamic models that simulate the detailed development of nodal units tend to be less accurate in determining final yield compared to the simpler dynamic and statistic models. However, they can be more safely applied to novel environmental conditions that can be explored in silico. Deficiencies in the current models are highlighted including suggestions on how they can be improved. None of the current dynamic cassava models adequately simulates the starch content of fresh cassava roots with almost all models based on dry biomass simulations. Further studies are necessary to develop a new module for existing cassava models to simulate cassava quality.

16.
Nat Food ; 2(11): 862-872, 2021 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37117500

RESUMEN

Food systems are increasingly challenged to meet growing demand for specialty crops due to the effects of climate change and increased competition for resources. Here, we apply an integrated methodology that includes climate, crop, economic and life cycle assessment models to US potato and tomato supply chains. We find that supply chains for two popular processed products in the United States, French fries and pasta sauce, will be remarkably resilient, through planting adaptation strategies that avoid higher temperatures. Land and water footprints will decline over time due to higher yields, and greenhouse gas emissions can be mitigated by waste reduction and process modification. Our integrated methodology can be applied to other crops, health-based consumer scenarios (fresh versus processed) and geographies, thereby informing decision-making throughout supply chains. Employing such methods will be essential as food systems are forced to adapt and transform to become carbon neutral due to the imperatives of climate change.

17.
Nat Food ; 2(11): 873-885, 2021 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37117503

RESUMEN

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

18.
Front Plant Sci ; 11: 571918, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32983221

RESUMEN

The development of tree architecture results from shoot growth and branching, but their relationship is still not fully understood. The goal of this study was to determine the effect of parent shoot growth characteristics on branching patterns in terms of polycyclism, growth duration (GD), and growth period (GP), considering apple tree as a case study. Weekly shoot growth records were collected from 227 shoots during their second year of growth and the resulting branching patterns from the following year. The branching patterns were compared between the different shoot categories, using hidden semi-Markov models. Our results showed that the branching pattern was similar in bicyclic and monocyclic shoots with a long GD. The number of floral laterals, and the frequency and length of the floral zones, increased with GD. Moreover, a long GD led to strong acrotony, due to the high occurrence of a vegetative zone with long laterals in the distal position of the shoot. In bicyclic shoots, an early GP of the second GU led to more frequent and longer floral zones than a late GP. Therefore, the GD was the strongest driver of the branching pattern, and GP modulated the flowering capacity. The main similarities among shoot categories resulted from the existence of latent buds and floral zones associated with growth cessation periods. Even though flowering was more abundant during the early GP, the positions of floral zones indicated that induction in axillary meristems can also occur late in the season. This study provides new knowledge regarding the relationships between the dynamics of parent shoot growth and axillary meristem fates, with key consequences on flowering abundance and positions.

19.
Glob Chang Biol ; 26(10): 5942-5964, 2020 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32628332

RESUMEN

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2 ]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Zea mays , Fertilizantes , Malí , Nitrógeno
20.
PLoS One ; 15(6): e0234436, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32525911

RESUMEN

The complex environment within a crop canopy leads to a high variability of the air temperature within the canopy, and, therefore, air temperature measured at a weather station (WS) does not represent the internal energy within a crop. The objectives of this study were to quantify the difference between the air temperature measured at a standard WS and the air temperature within a six-year-old vineyard (cv. Chardonnay) and to determine the degree of uncertainty associated with the assumption that there is no difference between the two temperatures when air temperature is used as input in grapevine models. Thermistors and thermocouples were installed within the vine canopy at heights of 0.5 m and 1.2 m above the soil surface and immediately adjacent to the berry clusters. In the middle of the clusters sensors were installed to determine the temperature of the air surrounding the clusters facing east and west. The data were recorded within the canopy from December 2015 to June 2017 as well as at the standard WS that was installed close to the vineyard (410 m). Significant differences were found between the air temperatures measured at the WS and those within the vineyard during the summer when the average daily minimum air temperature within the canopy was 1.2°C less than at the WS and the average daily maximum air temperature in the canopy was 2.0°C higher than at the WS. The mean maximum air temperature measured in the clusters facing east was 1.5°C higher and west 4.0°C higher than the temperature measured at the WS. Therefore, models that assume that air temperature measured at a weather station is similar to air temperature measured in the vineyard canopy could have greater uncertainty than models that consider the temperature within the canopy.


Asunto(s)
Producción de Cultivos , Meteorología/métodos , Modelos Estadísticos , Temperatura , Vitis/crecimiento & desarrollo , Granjas , Estaciones del Año , Incertidumbre
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