Association of differential censoring with survival and suboptimal control arms among oncology clinical trials.

Differential censoring (DC), referring to censoring imbalance between treatment arms, may bias the interpretation of survival outcomes in clinical trials. In 146 phase 3 oncology trials with statistically significant time-to-event surrogate primary endpoints (PEPs), we evaluated the association between DC in the surrogate PEP, control arm adequacy, and the subsequent statistical significance of OS results. Twenty-four (16%) trials exhibited DC favoring the control arm (ConDC), while 15 (10%) exhibited experimental arm DC (ExpDC). Positive OS was more common in ConDC trials (63%) than trials without DC (37%) or with ExpDC (47%; odds ratio [OR] 2.64, 95% CI 1.10-7.20; P=.04). ConDC trials more frequently used suboptimal control arms (46%) compared to 20% without DC and 13% with ExpDC (OR 3.60, 95% CI 1.29-10.0; P=.007). The presence of ConDC in trials with surrogate PEPs, especially in those with OS conversion, may indicate an inadequate control arm and should be examined and explained.

Prevalence and implications of significance testing for baseline covariate imbalance in randomised cancer clinical trials: The Table 1 Fallacy.

BACKGROUND: The 'Table 1 Fallacy' refers to the unsound use of significance testing for comparing the distributions of baseline variables between randomised groups to draw erroneous conclusions about balance or imbalance. We performed a cross-sectional study of the Table 1 Fallacy in phase III oncology trials. METHODS: From ClinicalTrials.gov, 1877 randomised trials were screened. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluated predictors of the Table 1 Fallacy. RESULTS: A total of 765 randomised controlled trials involving 553,405 patients were analysed. The Table 1 Fallacy was observed in 25% of trials (188 of 765), with 3% of comparisons deemed significant (59 of 2353), approximating the typical 5% type I error assertion probability. Application of trial-level multiplicity corrections reduced the rate of significant findings to 0.3% (six of 2345 tests). Factors associated with lower odds of the Table 1 Fallacy included industry sponsorship (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.18-0.47; multiplicity-corrected P < 0.0001), larger trial size (≥795 versus <280 patients; aOR 0.32, 95% CI 0.19-0.53; multiplicity-corrected P = 0.0008), and publication in a European versus American journal (aOR 0.06, 95% CI 0.03-0.13; multiplicity-corrected P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the persistence of the Table 1 Fallacy in contemporary oncology randomised controlled trials, with one of every four trials testing for baseline differences after randomisation. Significance testing is a suboptimal method for identifying unsound randomisation procedures and may encourage misleading inferences. Journal-level enforcement is a possible strategy to help mitigate this fallacy.

Modeling gamma knife radiosurgical toxicity for multiple brain metastases.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Radiation oncology protocols for single fraction radiosurgery recommend setting dosing criteria based on assumed risk of radionecrosis, which can be predicted by the 12 Gy normal brain volume (V12). In this study, we show that tumor surface area (SA) and a simple power-law model using only preplan variables can estimate and minimize radiosurgical toxicity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 245-patient cohort with 1217 brain metastases treated with single or distributed Gamma Knife sessions was reviewed retrospectively. Univariate and multivariable linear regression models and power-law models determined which modeling parameters best predicted V12. The V12 power-law model, represented by a product of normalized Rx dose Rxn, and tumor longest axial dimension LAD (V12 âˆ¼ Rxn1.5*LAD2), was independently validated using a secondary 63-patient cohort with 302 brain metastases. RESULTS: Surface area was the best univariate linear predictor of V12 (adjR2 = 0.770), followed by longest axial dimension (adjR2 = 0.755) and volume (adjR2 = 0.745). The power-law model accounted for 90% variance in V12 for 1217 metastatic lesions (adjR2 = 0.906) and 245 patients (adjR2 = 0.896). The average difference ΔV12 between predicted and measured V12s was (0.28 ± 0.55) cm3 per lesion and (1.0 ± 1.2) cm3 per patient. The power-law predictive capability was validated using a secondary 63-patient dataset (adjR2 = 0.867) with 302 brain metastases (adjR2 = 0.825). CONCLUSION: Surface area was the most accurate univariate predictor of V12 for metastatic lesions. We developed a preplan model for brain metastases that can help better estimate radionecrosis risk, determine prescription doses given a target V12, and provide safe dose escalation strategies without the use of any planning software.

Impact of CDKN2A/B, MTAP, and TERT Genetic Alterations on Survival in IDH Wild Type Glioblastomas.

PURPOSE: Poor outcomes in IDH wild-type (IDHwt) glioblastomas indicate the need to determine which genetic alterations can indicate poor survival and guidance of patient specific treatment options. We sought to identify the genetic alterations in these patients that predict for survival when adjusting particularly for treatments and other genetic alterations. METHODS: A cohort of 167 patients with pathologically confirmed IDHwt glioblastomas treated at our institution was retrospectively reviewed. Next generation sequencing was performed for each patient to determine tumor genetic alterations. Multivariable cox proportional hazards analysis for overall survival (OS) was performed to control for patient variables. RESULTS: CDKN2A, CDKN2B, and MTAP deletion predict for worse OS independently of other genetic alterations and patient characteristics (hazard ratio [HR] 2.192, p = 0.0017). Patients with CDKN2A copy loss (HR 2.963, p = 0.0037) or TERT mutated (HR 2.815, p = 0.0008) glioblastomas exhibited significant associations between radiation dose and OS, while CDKN2A and TERT wild type patients did not. CDKN2A deleted patients with NF1 mutations had worse OS (HR 1.990, p = 0.0540), while CDKN2A wild type patients had improved OS (HR 0.229, p = 0.0723). Patients with TERT mutated glioblastomas who were treated with radiation doses < 45 Gy (HR 3.019, p = 0.0010) but not those treated with ≥ 45 Gy exhibited worse OS compared to those without TERT mutations. CONCLUSION: In IDHwt glioblastomas, CDKN2A, CDKN2B, and MTAP predict for poor prognosis. TERT and CDKN2A mutations are associated with worse survival only when treated with lower radiation doses, thus potentially providing a genetic marker that can inform clinicians on proper dose-fractionation schemes.

Socioeconomic and demographic determinants of radiation treatment and outcomes in glioblastoma patients.

Introduction: Poor outcomes in glioblastoma patients, despite advancing treatment paradigms, indicate a need to determine non-physiologic prognostic indicators of patient outcome. The impact of specific socioeconomic and demographic patient factors on outcomes is unclear. We sought to identify socioeconomic and demographic patient characteristics associated with patient survival and tumor progression, and to characterize treatment options and healthcare utilization. Methods: A cohort of 169 patients with pathologically confirmed glioblastomas treated at our institution was retrospectively reviewed. Multivariable cox proportional hazards analysis for overall survival (OS) and cumulative incidence of progression was performed. Differences in treatment regimen, patient characteristics, and neuro-oncology office use between different age and depressive disorder history patient subgroups were calculated two-sample t-tests, Fisher's exact tests, or linear regression analysis. Results: The median age of all patients at the time of initiation of radiation therapy was 60.5 years. The median OS of the cohort was 13.1 months. Multivariable analysis identified age (Hazard Ratio 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.04) and total resection (Hazard Ratio 0.52, 95% CI 0.33-0.82) as significant predictors of OS. Increased number of radiation fractions (Hazard Ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.98), depressive disorder history (Hazard Ratio 0.59, 95% CI 0.37-0.95), and total resection (Hazard Ratio 0.52, 95% CI 0.31-0.88) were associated with decreased incidence of progression. Notably, patients with depressive disorder history were observed to have more neuro-oncology physician office visits over time (median 12 vs. 16 visits, p = 0.0121). Patients older than 60 years and those with Medicare (vs. private) insurance were less likely to receive as many radiation fractions (p = 0.0014) or receive temozolomide concurrently with radiation (Odds Ratio 0.46, p = 0.0139). Conclusion: Older glioblastoma patients were less likely to receive as diverse of a treatment regimen as their younger counterparts, which may be partially driven by insurance type. Patients with depressive disorder history exhibited reduced incidence of progression, which may be due to more frequent health care contact during neuro-oncology physician office visits.

Neutrophilia and post-radiation thrombocytopenia predict for poor prognosis in radiation-treated glioma patients.

Introduction: Poor outcomes in glioma patients indicate a need to determine prognostic indicators of survival to better guide patient specific treatment options. While preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) have been suggested as prognostic systemic inflammation markers, the impact of post-radiation changes in these cell types is unclear. We sought to identify which hematologic cell measurements before, during, or after radiation predicted for patient survival. Methods: A cohort of 182 patients with pathologically confirmed gliomas treated at our institution was retrospectively reviewed. Patient blood samples were collected within one month before, during, or within 3 months after radiation for quantification of hematologic cell counts, for which failure patterns were evaluated. Multivariable cox proportional hazards analysis for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) was performed to control for patient variables. Results: Multivariable analysis identified pre-radiation NLR > 4.0 (Hazard ratio = 1.847, p = 0.0039) and neutrophilia prior to (Hazard ratio = 1.706, p = 0.0185), during (Hazard ratio = 1.641, p = 0.0277), or after (Hazard ratio = 1.517, p = 0.0879) radiation as significant predictors of worse OS, with similar results for PFS. Post-radiation PLR > 200 (Hazard ratio = 0.587, p = 0.0062) and a percent increase in platelets after radiation (Hazard ratio = 0.387, p = 0.0077) were also associated with improved OS. Patients receiving more than 15 fractions of radiation exhibited greater post-radiation decreases in neutrophil and platelet counts than those receiving fewer. Patients receiving dexamethasone during radiation exhibited greater increases in neutrophil counts than those not receiving steroids. Lymphopenia, changes in lymphocyte counts, monocytosis, MLR, and changes in monocyte counts did not impact patient survival. Conclusion: Neutrophilia at any time interval surrounding radiotherapy, pre-radiation NLR, and post-radiation thrombocytopenia, but not lymphocytes or monocytes, are predictors of poor patient survival in glioma patients.

T Stage and Pretreatment Standardized Uptake Values Predict Tumor Recurrence With 5-Fraction SABR in Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Purpose: Five-fraction stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) regimens are frequently used to treat centrally located early-stage non-small cell lung cancer or disease in the proximity of the chest wall as a means of optimizing tumor control and reducing treatment toxicity. However, increasing these SABR regimens to 5 fractions may reduce tumor control outcomes. We sought to identify the clinical parameters predictive of treatment failures with these 5-fraction courses. Methods: Ninety patients with T1-2 non-small cell lung cancer were treated with 50 or 60 Gy in 5 fractions. Failure over time was modeled using cumulative incidences of local, regional, or distant failure, with death as a competing risk. Cox proportional hazards analysis for incidences of failure was performed to control for patient variables. Results: Of 90 patients, 24 of 53 patients with T1 tumors and 19 of 37 patients with T2 tumors received 50 Gy SABR, and the other 47 patients received 60 Gy. Two-year overall survival and progression-free survival for the whole cohort were 75.8% and 59.3%, respectively. Total SABR dose (50 vs 60 Gy) did not influence survival nor failure rates at 2 and 5 years. Within 2 years of treatment, 7.8% of all patients developed local failure. For all patient and tumor characteristics evaluated, only T stage and pretreatment positron emission tomography standardized uptake values served as predictors of local, regional, and distant failure at 2 and 5 years posttreatment on univariate and multivariable analysis. Conclusions: Five-fraction SABR provides excellent in-field control. T2 and high fluorodeoxyglucose uptake tumors have increased failure rates, suggesting the potential need for adjuvant therapies, which are being assessed in randomized phase 3 trials.

3D printed integrated bolus/headrest for radiation therapy for malignancies involving the posterior scalp and neck.

BACKGROUND: Malignancies of the head and neck region, encompassing cutaneous, mucosal, and sarcomatous histologies, are complex entities to manage, comprising of coordination between surgery, radiation therapy, and systemic therapy. Malignancies of the posterior scalp are particular challenging to treat with radiation therapy, given its irregular contours and anatomy as well as the superficial location of the target volume. Bolus material is commonly used in radiation therapy to ensure that the dose to the skin and subcutaneous tissue is appropriate and adequate, accounting for the buildup effect of megavoltage photon treatment. The use of commercially available bolus material on the posterior scalp potentially creates air gaps between the bolus and posterior scalp. CASE PRESENTATIONS: In this report, we created and utilized a custom 3D-printed integrated bolus and headrest for 5 patients to irradiate malignancies involving the posterior scalp, including those with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, melanoma, malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor, and dermal sarcoma. Treatment setup was consistently reproducible, and patients tolerated treatment well without any unexpected adverse effects. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the use of this custom 3D-printed integrated bolus/headrest allowed for comfortable, consistent, and reproducible treatment set up while minimizing the risk of creating significant air gaps and should be considered in the radiotherapeutic management of patients with posterior scalp malignancies.

Next generation of tumor-activating type I IFN enhances anti-tumor immune responses to overcome therapy resistance.

Type I interferon is promising in treating different kinds of tumors, but has been limited by its toxicity, lack of tumor targeting, and very short half-life. To target tumors, reduce systemic toxicity, and increase half-life, here we engineer a masked type I IFN-Fc (ProIFN) with its natural receptor connected by a cleavable linker that can be targeted by tumor-associated proteases. ProIFN has a prolonged serum half-life and shows an improved tumor-targeting effect. Interestingly, ProIFN-treated mice show enhanced DC cross-priming and significant increased CD8+ infiltration and effector function in the tumor microenvironment. ProIFN is able to improve checkpoint blockade efficacy in established tumors, as well as radiation efficacy for both primary and metastatic tumors. ProIFN exhibits superior long-term pharmacokinetics with minimal toxicity in monkeys. Therefore, this study demonstrates an effective tumor-activating IFN that can increase targeted immunity against primary tumor or metastasis and reduce periphery toxicity to the host.

Outcome and Immune Correlates of a Phase II Trial of High-Dose Interleukin-2 and Stereotactic Ablative Radiotherapy for Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: This phase II clinical trial evaluated whether the addition of stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SAbR), which may promote tumor antigen presentation, improves the overall response rate (ORR) to high-dose IL2 (HD IL2) in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with pathologic evidence of clear cell renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and radiographic evidence of metastasis were enrolled in this single-arm trial and were treated with SAbR, followed by HD IL2. ORR was assessed based on nonirradiated metastases. Secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), toxicity, and treatment-related tumor-specific immune response. Correlative studies involved whole-exome and transcriptome sequencing, T-cell receptor sequencing, cytokine analysis, and mass cytometry on patient samples. RESULTS: Thirty ethnically diverse mRCC patients were enrolled. A median of two metastases were treated with SAbR. Among 25 patients evaluable by RECIST v1.1, ORR was 16% with 8% complete responses. Median OS was 37 months. Treatment-related adverse events (AE) included 22 grade ≥3 events that were not dissimilar from HD IL2 alone. There were no grade 5 AEs. A correlation was observed between SAbR to lung metastases and improved PFS (P = 0.0165). Clinical benefit correlated with frameshift mutational load, mast cell tumor infiltration, decreased circulating tumor-associated T-cell clones, and T-cell clonal expansion. Higher regulatory/CD8+ T-cell ratios at baseline in the tumor and periphery correlated with no clinical benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Adding SAbR did not improve the response rate to HD IL2 in patients with mRCC in this study. Tissue analyses suggest a possible correlation between frameshift mutation load as well as tumor immune infiltrates and clinical outcomes.

A cytokine receptor-masked IL2 prodrug selectively activates tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes for potent antitumor therapy.

As a potent lymphocyte activator, interleukin-2 (IL-2) is an FDA-approved treatment for multiple metastatic cancers. However, its clinical use is limited by short half-life, low potency, and severe in vivo toxicity. Current IL-2 engineering strategies exhibit evidence of peripheral cytotoxicity. Here, we address these issues by engineering an IL-2 prodrug (ProIL2). We mask the activity of a CD8 T cell-preferential IL-2 mutein/Fc fusion protein with IL2 receptor beta linked to a tumor-associated protease substrate. ProIL2 restores activity after cleavage by tumor-associated enzymes, and preferentially activates inside tumors, where it expands antigen-specific CD8 T cells. This significantly reduces IL-2 toxicity and mortality without compromising antitumor efficacy. ProIL2 also overcomes resistance of cancers to immune checkpoint blockade. Lastly, neoadjuvant ProIL2 treatment can eliminate metastatic cancer through an abscopal effect. Taken together, our approach presents an effective tumor targeting therapy with reduced toxicity.

Regulation of Na+ channel inactivation by the DIII and DIV voltage-sensing domains.

Functional eukaryotic voltage-gated Na+ (NaV) channels comprise four domains (DI-DIV), each containing six membrane-spanning segments (S1-S6). Voltage sensing is accomplished by the first four membrane-spanning segments (S1-S4), which together form a voltage-sensing domain (VSD). A critical NaV channel gating process, inactivation, has previously been linked to activation of the VSDs in DIII and DIV. Here, we probe this interaction by using voltage-clamp fluorometry to observe VSD kinetics in the presence of mutations at locations that have been shown to impair NaV channel inactivation. These locations include the DIII-DIV linker, the DIII S4-S5 linker, and the DIV S4-S5 linker. Our results show that, within the 10-ms timeframe of fast inactivation, the DIV-VSD is the primary regulator of inactivation. However, after longer 100-ms pulses, the DIII-DIV linker slows DIII-VSD deactivation, and the rate of DIII deactivation correlates strongly with the rate of recovery from inactivation. Our results imply that, over the course of an action potential, DIV-VSDs regulate the onset of fast inactivation while DIII-VSDs determine its recovery.

Direct Measurement of Cardiac Na+ Channel Conformations Reveals Molecular Pathologies of Inherited Mutations.

BACKGROUND: Dysregulation of voltage-gated cardiac Na(+) channels (NaV1.5) by inherited mutations, disease-linked remodeling, and drugs causes arrhythmias. The molecular mechanisms whereby the NaV1.5 voltage-sensing domains (VSDs) are perturbed to pathologically or therapeutically modulate Na(+) current (INa) have not been specified. Our aim was to correlate INa kinetics with conformational changes within the 4 (DI-DIV) VSDs to define molecular mechanisms of NaV1.5 modulation. METHOD AND RESULTS: Four NaV1.5 constructs were created to track the voltage-dependent kinetics of conformational changes within each VSD, using voltage-clamp fluorometry. Each VSD displayed unique kinetics, consistent with distinct roles in determining INa. In particular, DIII-VSD deactivation kinetics were modulated by depolarizing pulses with durations in the intermediate time domain that modulates late INa. We then used the DII-VSD construct to probe the molecular pathology of 2 Brugada syndrome mutations (A735V and G752R). A735V shifted DII-VSD voltage dependence to depolarized potentials, whereas G752R significantly slowed DII-VSD kinetics. Both mutations slowed INa activation, although DII-VSD activation occurred at higher potentials (A735V) or at later times (G752R) than ionic current activation, indicating that the DII-VSD allosterically regulates the rate of INa activation and myocyte excitability. CONCLUSIONS: Our results reveal novel mechanisms whereby the NaV1.5 VSDs regulate channel activation and inactivation. The ability to distinguish distinct molecular mechanisms of proximal Brugada syndrome mutations demonstrates the potential of these methods to reveal how inherited mutations, post-translational modifications, and antiarrhythmic drugs alter NaV1.5 at the molecular level.