Predicting the number of visceral leishmaniasis cases in Kashgar, Xinjiang, China using the ARIMA-EGARCH model

Objective: To forecast the visceral leishmaniasis cases using autoregress integrated moving average (ARIMA) and hybrid ARIMA-EGARCH model, which offers a scientific basis to control visceral leishmaniasis spread in Kashgar Prefecture of Xinjiang, China. Methods: The data used in this paper are monthly visceral leishmaniasis cases in the Kashgar Prefecture of Xinjiang from 2004 to 2016. The sample data between 2004 and 2015 were used for the estimation to choose the best model and the sample data in 2016 were used for the forecast. Time series of visceral leishmaniasis started on 1 January 2004 and ended on 31 December 2016, consisting of 1 790 observations reported in Kashgar Prefecture. Results: For Xinjiang, the total number of reported cases were 2 187, the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1:1.42. Patients aged between 0 and 10 years accounted for 82.72% of all reported cases and the largest percentage of visceral leishmaniasis cases was detected among scattered children who accounted for 68.82%. The monthly incidences fitted by ARIMA (2, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1)

Predicting the number of visceral leishmaniasis cases in Kashgar, Xinjiang, China using the ARIMA-EGARCH model

Objective: To forecast the visceral leishmaniasis cases using autoregress integrated moving average (ARIMA) and hybrid ARIMA-EGARCH model, which offers a scientific basis to control visceral leishmaniasis spread in Kashgar Prefecture of Xinjiang, China. Methods: The data used in this paper are monthly visceral leishmaniasis cases in the Kashgar Prefecture of Xinjiang from 2004 to 2016. The sample data between 2004 and 2015 were used for the estimation to choose the best model and the sample data in 2016 were used for the forecast. Time series of visceral leishmaniasis started on 1 January 2004 and ended on 31 December 2016, consisting of 1 790 observations reported in Kashgar Prefecture. Results: For Xinjiang, the total number of reported cases were 2 187, the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1:1.42. Patients aged between 0 and 10 years accounted for 82.72% of all reported cases and the largest percentage of visceral leishmaniasis cases was detected among scattered children who accounted for 68.82%. The monthly incidences fitted by ARIMA (2, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1)12 model were consistent with the real data collected from 2004 to 2015. However, the predicted cases failed to comply with the observed case number; we then attempted to establish a hybrid ARIMA-EGARCH model to fit visceral leishmaniasis. Finally, the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1)12- EGARCH (1, 1) model showed a good estimation when dealing with volatility clustering in the data series. Conclusions: The combined model has been determined as the best prediction model with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 7.23% in the validation phase, which means that this model has high validity and rationality and can be used for short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis and could be applied to the prevention and control of the disease.

Cholecystokinin release triggered by NMDA receptors produces LTP and sound-sound associative memory.

Memory is stored in neural networks via changes in synaptic strength mediated in part by NMDA receptor (NMDAR)-dependent long-term potentiation (LTP). Here we show that a cholecystokinin (CCK)-B receptor (CCKBR) antagonist blocks high-frequency stimulation-induced neocortical LTP, whereas local infusion of CCK induces LTP. CCK-/- mice lacked neocortical LTP and showed deficits in a cue-cue associative learning paradigm; and administration of CCK rescued associative learning deficits. High-frequency stimulation-induced neocortical LTP was completely blocked by either the NMDAR antagonist or the CCKBR antagonist, while application of either NMDA or CCK induced LTP after low-frequency stimulation. In the presence of CCK, LTP was still induced even after blockade of NMDARs. Local application of NMDA induced the release of CCK in the neocortex. These findings suggest that NMDARs control the release of CCK, which enables neocortical LTP and the formation of cue-cue associative memory.

Bu-Shen-Yi-Qi formula ameliorates airway remodeling in murine chronic asthma by modulating airway inflammation and oxidative stress in the lung.

Bu-Shen-Yi-Qi formula (BSYQF) could suppress chronic airway inflammation according to previous studies. However, there is relatively little direct experimental evidence to evaluate the effects of BSYQF treatment on airway remodeling in chronic asthma. Recent evidence suggests that oxidative stress is involved in airway inflammation and airway remodeling in chronic asthma. BSYQF which includes various of chemical components having antioxidant effects, could be beneficial in attenuating airway remodeling in chronic asthma. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the effect of BSYQF treatment on airway remodeling and investigate its potential mechanisms in chronic asthma. To develop the murine models of chronic asthma, BALB/c mice were sensitized and challenged to ovalbumin for 8 weeks. BSYQF (5, 10, 20 g raw herbs/kg body weight) or tiotropium bromide (0.1 mM) were administered orally and intranasal instillation, respectively. The effect of BSYQF on pulmonary inflammation and remodeling was evaluated. The parameters of oxidative stress in the lung were analyzed. BSYQF treatment reduced airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR), Th2 response including IL-4, IL-13, and OVA-specific IgE and IgG1, transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß), vascular endothelium growth factor (VEGF), airway inflammation and airway remodeling including smooth muscle thickening and peribronchial collagen deposition. As for oxidative stress, BSYQF treatment reduced reactive oxygen species (ROS), Malondialdehyde (MDA), NO, and the expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), but increased significantly glutathione (GSH) /Oxidized glutathione(GSSH) ratios in the lung, restored mitochondrial ultrastructural changes of bronchial epithelia and ATP levels in the lung. In summary, this study suggested that BSYQF treatment ameliorated airway remodeling and alleviated asthmatic features in chronic asthma models. Anti-inflammatory and antioxidant effect of BSYQF may explain why BSYQF has effects on preventing airway remodeling.

Astragaloside IV inhibits lung cancer progression and metastasis by modulating macrophage polarization through AMPK signaling.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence suggests that M2-polarized tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) play an important role in cancer progression and metastasis, making M2 polarization of TAMs an ever more appealing target for therapeutic intervention. Astragaloside IV (AS-IV), a saponin component isolated from Astragali radix, has been reported to inhibit the invasion and metastasis of lung cancer, but its effects on TAMs during lung cancer progression have not been investigated. METHODS: Human THP-1 monocytes were induced to differentiate into M2 macrophages through treatments with IL-4, IL-13, and phorbol myristate acetate (PMA). We used the lung cancer cell lines A549 and H1299 cultured in conditioned medium from M2 macrophages (M2-CM) to investigate the effects of AS-IV on tumor growth, invasion, migration, and angiogenesis of lung cancer cells. Macrophage subset distribution, M1 and M2 macrophage-associated markers, and mRNA expression were analyzed by flow cytometry and quantitative PCR. The activation of adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase (AMPK) signaling pathways that mediate M2-CM-promoted tumor migration was detected using western blotting. RESULTS: Here we found that AS-IV significantly inhibited IL-13 and IL-4-induced M2 polarization of macrophages, as illustrated by reduced expression of CD206 and M2-associated genes, and that AS-IV suppressed the M2-CM-induced invasion, migration, and angiogenesis of A549 and H1299 cells. In vivo experiments demonstrated that AS-IV greatly inhibited tumor growth and reduced the number of metastases of Lewis lung cancer. The percentage of M2 macrophages was decreased in tumor tissue after AS-IV treatment. Furthermore, AS-IV inhibited AMPKα activation in M2 macrophages, and silencing of AMPKα partially abrogated the inhibitory effect of AS-IV. CONCLUSIONS: AS-IV reduced the growth, invasion, migration, and angiogenesis of lung cancer by blocking the M2 polarization of macrophages partially through the AMPK signaling pathway, which appears to play an important role in AS-IV's ability to inhibit the metastasis of lung cancer.

A quantitative study on the epidemic situation of tuberculosis based on the transmission disease dynamics in 14 prefectures of Xinjiang from 2005 to 2017 / 中国感染控制杂志

Objective To quantitatively analyze the epidemic situation of tuberculosis(TB)by modeling the data of tuberculosis in prefectures of Xinjiang,and predict the new cases of tuberculosis in prefectures of Xinjiang.Methods A dynamic model was used to fit the data of TB in 14 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2014,the results of the fitting were verified by tuberculosis data in 2015－2017,verified results were evaluated,estimated values and basic reproductive numbers (R0)of parameters in each region were obtained,data of new TB in 2018－2022 were predic-ted.Results The verification of TB data in 2015－2017 showed that the actual values fell within the 95% confidence interval of the predictive value curve,model was fit well.R0in Southern Kashgar was 1 1.38 (95%CI:1 1.33－11.50),R0in Urumqi City in Eastern Xinjiang and Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture in Northern Xinjiang were 5.46 (95% CI :5.28－5.50)and 2.22 (95% CI :2.18－2.28)respectively.The epidemic situation of TB in Southern Xinjiang was more serious than that in Northern and Eastern Xinjiang,epidemic situation of TB in Kash- gar Prefecture was most serious.The predicted results showed that the number of new TB from 2018 to 2022 will slowly grow in most prefectures.Conclusion The dynamical model of TB fits well and is feasible in this study,it can be used for prediction of new TB cases,intervention and management in Southern Xinjiang should be strength-ened to control the prevalence of TB.

Genetic analysis of 15 mtDNA SNP loci in Chinese Yi ethnic group using SNaPshot minisequencing.

SNaPshot minisequencing is a rapid and robust methodology based on a single base extension with a labeled ddNTP. The present study detected 15 selected SNPs in the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control and coding regions by minisequencing methodology using SNaPshot for forensic purpose. The samples were collected from 99 unrelated individuals of the Yi ethnic minority group in Yunnan Province. We have predominantly found high-frequency transitions (91.7%) and a significantly lower frequency of transversions (8.3%). The nt152, 489, 8701, 10,398, 16,183, and 16,362 loci were highly polymorphic, while the nt231, 473 and 581 loci were not polymorphic in the studied population. Based on these 15 SNPs, a total of 28 mtDNA haplotypes were defined in 99 individuals with the haplotype diversity of 0.9136. Also, we compared the mtDNA sequences of Yi group and other 9 populations worldwide and drew a Neighbor-Joining tree based on the shared 12 mtDNA SNP loci, which demonstrated a close relationship between Yi and Bai groups. In conclusion, the analysis of the 15 selected SNPs increases considerably the discrimination power of mtDNA. Moreover, the SNaPshot minisequencing method could quickly detect mtDNA SNPs, and is economical and sensitive. The set of selected 15 SNPs is highly informative and is capable for anthropology genetic analysis.

Mutation rate analysis at 19 autosomal microsatellites.

Previous studies have demonstrated that a large sample size is needed to reliably estimate population- and locus-specific microsatellite mutation rates. Therefore, we conducted a long-term collaboration study and performed a comprehensive analysis on the mutation characteristics of 19 autosomal short tandem repeat (STR) loci. The STR loci located on 15 of 22 autosomal chromosomes were analyzed in a total of 21,106 samples (11,468 parent-child meioses) in a Chinese population. This provided 217,892 allele transfers at 19 STR loci. An overall mutation rate of 1.20 × 10(-3) (95% CI, 1.06-1.36 × 10(-3) ) was observed in the populations across 18 of 19 STR loci, except for the TH01 locus with no mutation found. Most STR mutations (97.7%) were single-step mutations, and only a few mutations (2.30%) comprised two and multiple steps. Interestingly, approximately 93% of mutation events occur in the male germline. The mutation ratios increased with the paternal age at child birth (r = 0.99, p<0.05), but not maternal age. Last, with the combination analysis of the data from the southern Chinese population, we drew a picture of 19 STR mutations in China. In conclusion, the data from this study will provide useful information in parentage testing, kinship analysis, and population genetics.

Transurethral enucleation of the prostate for treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia in patients less than 50 years old / 南方医科大学学报

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To evaluate the therapeutic effect of transurethral enucleation of the prostate for treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia in patients below 50 years of age.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Twelve patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia patients (mean age 48.2 years, range 46-49 years) underwent transurethral enucleation of the prostate. The middle lobe and two lateral lobes were enucleated with the preprosthetic sphincter and anterior fibromuscular stroma preserved during the operation. The patients were followed up to evaluate the lower urinary tract symptoms and sexual activity after the surgery.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The 12 patients were followed up for 3 to 6 months. The symptoms of lower urinary tract obstruction were improved obviously after the surgery, and the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) decreased from 24±5.1 to 8.8±1.4 and peak urine flow rate (Qmax) increased from 8.1±4.2 ml/s to 20.1±4.2 ml/s at 3 months postoperatively. All the 12 cases had residual urine (12-44 ml) preoperatively, but after the surgery, only 4 still had residual urine of less than 30 ml. All the patients had normal erection function postoperatively, and 10 had normal ejaculation; the other 2 patients recovered normal ejaculation 3 and 5 months after the operation, respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>Transurethral enucleation can alleviate the low urinary tract obstruction symptom and improve the sexual function by avoiding preprosthetic sphincter injury in relatively young patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia.</p>

[Regulation of 2-methoxyestradiol-induced cell apoptosis by mcl-1 and bax genes in myelodysplastic syndrome].

The purpose of this study was to explore the mechanism underlying the regulation of 2-methoxyestradiol (2-ME)-induced cell apoptosis by mcl-1 and bax gene in myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). The MUTZ-1 cells were pretreated with 2-ME; then the activity of caspases-3 was determined by fluorescent colorimetry; the mRNA expressions of apoptosis-related genes (mcl-1) and bcl-2-related X protein (bax) were determined by RT-PCR. The results showed that as compared with control, the 2-ME enhanced the activity of caspase-3 in MUTZ-1 cells in a dose-and time-dependent manners (p<0.05); along with increasing of 2-ME concentration, the expression of intracellular mcl-1 mRNA reduced (p<0.05), meanwhile the expression level of mcl-1 mRNA negatively correlated to the activity of caspase-3 at the corresponding time points (r=-0.992, p<0.01), but the expression of bax mRNA did not show significant change (p>0.05). It is concluded that 2-ME can regulate the apoptosis of MDS cells through the pathway of down-regulating the expression of mcl-1 mRNA and activating the caspase-3.