Metabolomic epidemiology offers insights into disease aetiology.

Metabolomic epidemiology is the high-throughput study of the relationship between metabolites and health-related traits. This emerging and rapidly growing field has improved our understanding of disease aetiology and contributed to advances in precision medicine. As the field continues to develop, metabolomic epidemiology could lead to the discovery of diagnostic biomarkers predictive of disease risk, aiding in earlier disease detection and better prognosis. In this Review, we discuss key advances facilitated by the field of metabolomic epidemiology for a range of conditions, including cardiometabolic diseases, cancer, Alzheimer's disease and COVID-19, with a focus on potential clinical utility. Core principles in metabolomic epidemiology, including study design, causal inference methods and multi-omic integration, are briefly discussed. Future directions required for clinical translation of metabolomic epidemiology findings are summarized, emphasizing public health implications. Further work is needed to establish which metabolites reproducibly improve clinical risk prediction in diverse populations and are causally related to disease progression.

High triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is associated with poor prognosis of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

BACKGROUND: The impact of insulin resistance on the prognosis of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remains unknown. This study aimed to investigate the association between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, an easily calculated marker of insulin resistance, and the long-term prognosis of HFpEF. METHODS: A total of 823 patients with HFpEF were enrolled in the study. The TyG index was determined using the formula ln(fasting triglycerides [mg/dL] × fasting glucose [mg/dL]/2). The primary endpoint was all-cause death. The secondary endpoints were cardiovascular (CV) death and heart failure (HF) rehospitalization. Restricted cubic spline, multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, and competing risk models were used for analyses. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 3.16 years, 147 (17.8%) all-cause deaths, 139 (16.8%) CV deaths, and 222 (27.0%) HF rehospitalizations occurred. Restricted cubic spline analysis revealed a J-shaped association between the TyG index and the mortality and rehospitalization rates. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, compared with those in the lowest TyG index tertile, patients in the highest tertile exhibited the greatest susceptibility to all-cause death (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.19-1.98) and CV death (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.19-1.96). In the competing risk model, a significant association between the TyG index and HF rehospitalization was observed (HR 1.31, 95% CI, 1.07-1.61). CONCLUSION: A high TyG index is associated with an increased risk of mortality and rehospitalization in patients with HFpEF. The TyG index may serve as a promising prognostic marker for patients with HFpEF.

Genome-wide study of genetic polymorphisms predictive for outcome from first-line oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy in colorectal cancer patients.

We conducted the first large genome-wide association study to identify novel genetic variants that predict better (or poorer) prognosis in colorectal cancer patients receiving standard first-line oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy vs chemotherapy without oxaliplatin. We used data from two phase III trials, NCCTG N0147 and NCCTG N9741 and a population-based patient cohort, DACHS. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were employed, including an interaction term between each SNP and type of treatment for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival. The analysis was performed for studies individually, and the results were combined using fixed-effect meta-analyses separately for resected stage III colon cancer (3098 patients from NCCTG N0147 and 549 patients from DACHS) and mCRC (505 patients from NCCTG N9741 and 437 patients from DACHS). We further performed gene-based analysis as well as in silico bioinformatics analysis for CRC-relevant functional genomic annotation of identified loci. In stage III colon cancer patients, a locus on chr22 (rs11912167) was associated with significantly poorer OS after oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy vs chemotherapy without oxaliplatin (Pinteraction < 5 × 10-8 ). For mCRC patients, three loci on chr1 (rs1234556), chr12 (rs11052270) and chr15 (rs11858406) were found to be associated with differential OS (P < 5 × 10-7 ). The locus on chr1 located in the intronic region of RCSD1 was replicated in an independent cohort of 586 mCRC patients from ALGB/SWOG 80405 (Pinteraction = .04). The GWA gene-based analysis yielded for RCSD1 the most significant association with differential OS in mCRC (P = 6.6 × 10-6 ). With further investigation into its biological mechanisms, this finding could potentially be used to individualize first-line treatment and improve clinical outcomes.

The impact of the stress hyperglycemia ratio on mortality and rehospitalization rate in patients with acute decompensated heart failure and diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between stress hyperglycemia and long-term prognosis in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) patients is unknown. This study investigated the associations of stress hyperglycemia with mortality and rehospitalization rates among ADHF patients with diabetes. METHODS: We consecutively enrolled 1904 ADHF patients. Among them, 780 were with diabetes. Stress hyperglycemia was estimated using the stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR), which was calculated by the following formula: SHR = admission blood glucose/[(28.7 × HbA1c%) - 46.7]. All diabetic ADHF subjects were divided into quintiles according to the SHR. The primary endpoint was all-cause death at the 3-year follow-up. The secondary endpoints were cardiovascular (CV) death and heart failure (HF) rehospitalization at the 3-year follow-up. A Cox proportional hazards model and restricted cubic spline analysis were used to elucidate the relationship between the SHR and the endpoints in diabetic ADHF patients. Further analyses were performed to examine the relationships between SHR and the outcomes in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). RESULTS: A total of 169 all-cause deaths were recorded during a median follow-up of 3.24 years. Restricted cubic spline analysis suggested a U-shaped association between the SHR and the mortality and rehospitalization rates. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed the lowest mortality in the 2nd quintile (P = 0.0028). Patients categorized in the highest range (5th quintile) of SHR, compared to those in the 2nd quintile, exhibited the greatest susceptibility to all-cause death (with a hazard ratio [HR] of 2.76 and a 95% confidence interval [CI] of 1.63-4.68), CV death (HR 2.81 [95% CI 1.66-4.75]) and the highest rate of HF rehospitalization (HR 1.54 [95% CI 1.03-2.32]). Similarly, patients in the lowest range (1st quintile) of SHR also exhibited significantly increased risks of all-cause death (HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.35-4.02) and CV death (HR 2.32, 95% CI 1.35-4.00). Further analyses indicated that the U-shape association between the SHR and mortality remained significant in both HFpEF and HFrEF patients. CONCLUSION: Both elevated and reduced SHRs indicate an unfavorable long-term prognosis in patients with ADHF and diabetes.

An epidemiological introduction to human metabolomic investigations.

Metabolomics holds great promise for uncovering insights around biological processes impacting disease in human epidemiological studies. Metabolites can be measured across biological samples, including plasma, serum, saliva, urine, stool, and whole organs and tissues, offering a means to characterize metabolic processes relevant to disease etiology and traits of interest. Metabolomic epidemiology studies face unique challenges, such as identifying metabolites from targeted and untargeted assays, defining standards for quality control, harmonizing results across platforms that often capture different metabolites, and developing statistical methods for high-dimensional and correlated metabolomic data. In this review, we introduce metabolomic epidemiology to the broader scientific community, discuss opportunities and challenges presented by these studies, and highlight emerging innovations that hold promise to uncover new biological insights.

Validation of a Genetic-Enhanced Risk Prediction Model for Colorectal Cancer in a Large Community-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) which summarize individuals' genetic risk profile may enhance targeted colorectal cancer screening. A critical step towards clinical implementation is rigorous external validations in large community-based cohorts. This study externally validated a PRS-enhanced colorectal cancer risk model comprising 140 known colorectal cancer loci to provide a comprehensive assessment on prediction performance. METHODS: The model was developed using 20,338 individuals and externally validated in a community-based cohort (n = 85,221). We validated predicted 5-year absolute colorectal cancer risk, including calibration using expected-to-observed case ratios (E/O) and calibration plots, and discriminatory accuracy using time-dependent AUC. The PRS-related improvement in AUC, sensitivity and specificity were assessed in individuals of age 45 to 74 years (screening-eligible age group) and 40 to 49 years with no endoscopy history (younger-age group). RESULTS: In European-ancestral individuals, the predicted 5-year risk calibrated well [E/O = 1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.91-1.13] and had high discriminatory accuracy (AUC = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.71-0.76). Adding the PRS to a model with age, sex, family and endoscopy history improved the 5-year AUC by 0.06 (P < 0.001) and 0.14 (P = 0.05) in the screening-eligible age and younger-age groups, respectively. Using a risk-threshold of 5-year SEER colorectal cancer incidence rate at age 50 years, adding the PRS had a similar sensitivity but improved the specificity by 11% (P < 0.001) in the screening-eligible age group. In the younger-age group it improved the sensitivity by 27% (P = 0.04) with similar specificity. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed PRS-enhanced model provides a well-calibrated 5-year colorectal cancer risk prediction and improves discriminatory accuracy in the external cohort. IMPACT: The proposed model has potential utility in risk-stratified colorectal cancer prevention.

Predictive Polygenic Score for Outcome after First-Line Oxaliplatin-Based Chemotherapy in Colorectal Cancer Patients Using Supervised Principal Component Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Associations between candidate germline genetic variants and treatment outcome of oxaliplatin, a drug commonly used for patients with colorectal cancer, have been reported but not robustly established. This study aimed to construct polygenic hazard scores (PHSs) as predictive markers for oxaliplatin treatment outcome by using a supervised principal component approach (PCA). METHODS: Genome-wide association analysis for overall survival, including interaction terms (SNP*treatment type) was carried out using two phase III trials, 3,098 resected stage III colon cancer (rCC) patients of NCCTG N0147 and 506 metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients of NCCTG N9741, separately. SNPs showing interaction with genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) were selected for PCA to derive a PHS. PHS interaction with treatment was included in Cox regression models to predict outcome. Replication of prediction models was performed in an independent cohort, DACHS. RESULTS: The two PHSs based on the first two principal components of selected SNPs (15SNPs for rCC and 13SNPs for mCRC) were used to construct interaction terms with treatment type and included in models adjusted for clinical covariables. However, in the DACHS study, the addition of the two PHS terms to clinical models did not improve the prediction error in either patients with rCC or mCRC. PHS interaction was also not replicated. CONCLUSIONS: The PHSs derived using principal components efficiently combined multiple predictive SNPs for estimating likelihood of benefit from oxaliplatin versus other treatment but could not be replicated. IMPACT: These results highlight the potential but also challenges in generating evidence for a predictive polygenic score for oxaliplatin efficacy.

Longitudinal analysis of the impact of oral contraceptive use on the gut microbiome.

Introduction. Evidence has linked exogenous and endogenous sex hormones with the human microbiome.Hypothesis/Gap statement. The longitudinal effects of oral contraceptives (OC) on the human gut microbiome have not previously been studied.Aim. We sought to examine the longitudinal impact of OC use on the taxonomic composition and metabolic functions of the gut microbiota and endogenous sex steroid hormones after initiation of OC use.Methodology. We recruited ten healthy women who provided blood and stool samples prior to OC use, 1 month and 6 months after starting OC. We measured serum levels of sex hormones, including estradiol, progesterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), and total testosterone. Shotgun metagenomic sequencing was performed on DNA extracted from faecal samples. Species and metabolic pathway abundances were determined using MetaPhlAn2 and HUMAnN2. Multivariate association with linear models was used to identify microbial species and metabolic pathways associated with OC use and endogenous levels of sex hormones.Results. The percentage variance of the microbial community explained by individual factors ranged from 9.9 % for age to 2.7 % for time since initiation of OC use. We observed no changes in the diversity or composition of the gut microbiome following OC initiation. However, the relative abundance of the biosynthesis pathways of peptidoglycan, amino acids (lysine, threonine, methionine, and tryptophan), and the NAD salvage pathway increased after OC initiation. In addition, serum levels of estradiol and SHBG were positively associated with Eubacterium ramulus, a flavonoid-degrading bacterium. Similarly, microbes involving biosynthesis of l-lysine, l-threonine, and l-methionine were significantly associated with lower estradiol, SHBG, and higher levels of total testosterone.Conclusion. Our study provides the first piece of evidence supporting the association between exogenous and endogenous sex hormones and gut microbiome composition and function.

Smoking Behaviour Changes After Diagnosis of Inflammatory Bowel Disease and Risk of All-cause Mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We examined smoking behaviour changes after diagnoses of Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC] and evaluated their impact on mortality. METHODS: Study population included incident CD or UC cases from three cohorts of the Nurses' Health Study [NHS], NHSII, and Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Smoking and other risk factors were prospectively assessed. Smoking behaviour changes were categorised as never, former [i.e., quit smoking before diagnosis], quitters [i.e., quit smoking after diagnosis], and current [i.e., continue smoking after diagnosis]. Follow-up for date and cause of death was completed through linkage to the National Death Index. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate hazard ratios [HRs] and 95% confidence intervals [CIs]. RESULTS: Among 909 eligible CD and UC cases, 45% were never smokers, 38% were past smokers, and 16% were active smokers at the time of diagnosis. Among active smokers, 70% of patients with CD and 44% of patients with UC continued to smoke after diagnosis. In patients with CD, compared with current smokers, the multivariable-adjusted HRs [95% CI] of death were 0.19 [0.10 to 0.38] for never smokers, 0.31 [0.16 to 0.57] for former smokers, and 0.41 [0.18 to 0.93] for quitters. Similarly for UC, compared with current smokers, we observed a reduced risk of mortality for never smokers [HR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.51], former smokers [HR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.48], and quitters [HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.72]. CONCLUSIONS: In three cohorts of health professionals, a substantial proportion of patients with new diagnosis of CD and UC and history of smoking continued to smoke after diagnosis. Smoking cessation around the time of diagnosis was associated with a significant reduction in mortality.

Genome-wide association study identifies tumor anatomical site-specific risk variants for colorectal cancer survival.

Identification of new genetic markers may improve the prediction of colorectal cancer prognosis. Our objective was to examine genome-wide associations of germline genetic variants with disease-specific survival in an analysis of 16,964 cases of colorectal cancer. We analyzed genotype and colorectal cancer-specific survival data from a consortium of 15 studies. Approximately 7.5 million SNPs were examined under the log-additive model using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for clinical factors and principal components. Additionally, we ran secondary analyses stratifying by tumor site and disease stage. We used a genome-wide p-value threshold of 5 × 10-8 to assess statistical significance. No variants were statistically significantly associated with disease-specific survival in the full case analysis or in the stage-stratified analyses. Three SNPs were statistically significantly associated with disease-specific survival for cases with tumors located in the distal colon (rs698022, HR = 1.48, CI 1.30-1.69, p = 8.47 × 10-9) and the proximal colon (rs189655236, HR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.65-2.77, p = 9.19 × 10-9 and rs144717887, HR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.57-2.58, p = 3.14 × 10-8), whereas no associations were detected for rectal tumors. Findings from this large genome-wide association study highlight the potential for anatomical-site-stratified genome-wide studies to identify germline genetic risk variants associated with colorectal cancer-specific survival. Larger sample sizes and further replication efforts are needed to more fully interpret these findings.

Genetic variants associated with circulating C-reactive protein levels and colorectal cancer survival: Sex-specific and lifestyle factors specific associations.

Elevated blood levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) have been linked to colorectal cancer (CRC) survival. We evaluated genetic variants associated with CRP levels and their interactions with sex and lifestyle factors in association with CRC-specific mortality. Our study included 16 142 CRC cases from the International Survival Analysis in Colorectal Cancer Consortium. We identified 618 common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with CRP levels from the NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between SNPs and CRC-specific mortality adjusting for age, sex, genotyping platform/study and principal components. We investigated their interactions with sex and lifestyle factors using likelihood ratio tests. Of 5472 (33.9%) deaths accrued over up to 10 years of follow-up, 3547 (64.8%) were due to CRC. No variants were associated with CRC-specific mortality after multiple comparison correction. We observed strong evidence of interaction between variant rs1933736 at FRK gene and sex in relation to CRC-specific mortality (corrected Pinteraction  = .0004); women had higher CRC-specific mortality associated with the minor allele (HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04-1.19) whereas an inverse association was observed for men (HR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.82-0.94). There was no evidence of interactions between CRP-associated SNPs and alcohol, obesity or smoking. Our study observed a significant interaction between sex and a CRP-associated variant in relation to CRC-specific mortality. Future replication of this association and functional annotation of the variant are needed.

Association between post-treatment circulating biomarkers of inflammation and survival among stage II-III colorectal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Biomarker studies on colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis are limited to pre-diagnostic or pre-operative measures. Post-treatment biomarkers are not well understood for their associations with CRC survival. METHODS: We included 306 eligible incident stage II-III CRC cases from the population-based Seattle Colon Cancer Family Registry. Concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), adiponectin, and leptin were measured using post-treatment plasma samples. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and CRC-specific mortality were calculated using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Elevated levels of CRP, IL-6, MCP-1, and adiponectin were significantly associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality within 10 years post blood draw with HRs (95% CI) of 1.32 (1.10-2.59), 2.72 (2.07-3.56), 1.97 (1.18-3.28) and 1.71 (1.14-2.58), respectively. IL-6 and adiponectin had a dose-response effect (Ptrend < 0.0001). For CRC-specific mortality, we observed positive associations for CRP (HR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.2-2.56), IL-6 (HR = 5.02, 95% CI: 2.92-8.59), MCP-1 (HR = 3.78, 95% CI: 1.41-10.08), and adiponectin (HR = 3.16, 95% CI: 1.27-7.86), and inverse association for leptin (HR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.29-0.68) within the first year of blood draw, whereas the association for IL-6 remained statistically significant over 10 years. CONCLUSION: Our results support the role of chronic inflammation in CRC progression and suggested several post-treatment inflammatory biomarkers, particularly IL-6, are promising prognostic markers for stage II-III CRC patients.

Genetically Predicted Circulating C-Reactive Protein Concentration and Colorectal Cancer Survival: A Mendelian Randomization Consortium Study.

BACKGROUND: A positive association between circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) and colorectal cancer survival was reported in observational studies, which are susceptible to unmeasured confounding and reverse causality. We used a Mendelian randomization approach to evaluate the association between genetically predicted CRP concentrations and colorectal cancer-specific survival. METHODS: We used individual-level data for 16,918 eligible colorectal cancer cases of European ancestry from 15 studies within the International Survival Analysis of Colorectal Cancer Consortium. We calculated a genetic-risk score based on 52 CRP-associated genetic variants identified from genome-wide association studies. Because of the non-collapsibility of hazard ratios from Cox proportional hazards models, we used the additive hazards model to calculate hazard differences (HD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between genetically predicted CRP concentrations and colorectal cancer-specific survival, overall and by stage at diagnosis and tumor location. Analyses were adjusted for age at diagnosis, sex, body mass index, genotyping platform, study, and principal components. RESULTS: Of the 5,395 (32%) deaths accrued over up to 10 years of follow-up, 3,808 (23%) were due to colorectal cancer. Genetically predicted CRP concentration was not associated with colorectal cancer-specific survival (HD, -1.15; 95% CI, -2.76 to 0.47 per 100,000 person-years; P = 0.16). Similarly, no associations were observed in subgroup analyses by stage at diagnosis or tumor location. CONCLUSIONS: Despite adequate power to detect moderate associations, our results did not support a causal effect of circulating CRP concentrations on colorectal cancer-specific survival. IMPACT: Future research evaluating genetically determined levels of other circulating inflammatory biomarkers (i.e., IL6) with colorectal cancer survival outcomes is needed.

Genetic Predictors of Severe Skin Toxicity in Patients with Stage III Colon Cancer Treated with Cetuximab: NCCTG N0147 (Alliance).

BACKGROUND: Cetuximab, an EGFR inhibitor used to treat multiple cancer types, including colon cancer, causes severe skin toxicity in 5%-20% of patients, leading to decreased quality of life and treatment delays. Our understanding of which patients have an increased risk of severe toxicities is limited. We conducted a genome-wide association study to identify germline variants predictive of cetuximab-induced severe skin toxicity. METHODS: Our study included 1,209 patients with stage III colon cancer randomized to receive cetuximab plus 5-fluorouracil and oxaliplatin as part of the NCCTG N0147 (Alliance) clinical trial. Skin toxicity outcomes were collected using the Common Toxicity Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. We performed genotyping, evaluating approximately 10 million genetic variants. We used logistic regression to evaluate the association of each genetic variant and severe (grade ≥ 3) skin toxicity, adjusting for age, sex, and genetic ancestry. Genome-wide significance was defined as P < 5 × 10-8. RESULTS: Participants were predominantly middle-aged white men; 20% (n = 243) experienced severe skin toxicity. Two genetic variants in the retinoic acid receptor alpha (RARA) gene were significantly associated with severe skin toxicity [OR, 3.93; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.47-6.25; P < 7.8 × 10-9]. Functional annotations indicate these variants are in the RARA promoter. Additional significantly associated variants were identified in chromosome 2 intergenic regions. CONCLUSIONS: Identified variants could represent a potential target for risk stratification of patients with colon cancer receiving cetuximab. IMPACT: Retinoids have shown promise in the treatment of cetuximab-induced skin toxicity, so follow-up work could evaluate whether individuals with the RARA variant would benefit from retinoid therapy.

Genetic Variants in the Regulatory T cell-Related Pathway and Colorectal Cancer Prognosis.

BACKGROUND: High numbers of lymphocytes in tumor tissue, including T regulatory cells (Treg), have been associated with better colorectal cancer survival. Tregs, a subset of CD4+ T lymphocytes, are mediators of immunosuppression in cancer, and therefore variants in genes related to Treg differentiation and function could be associated with colorectal cancer prognosis. METHODS: In a prospective German cohort of 3,593 colorectal cancer patients, we assessed the association of 771 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in 58 Treg-related genes with overall and colorectal cancer-specific survival using Cox regression models. Effect modification by microsatellite instability (MSI) status was also investigated because tumors with MSI show greater lymphocytic infiltration and have been associated with better prognosis. Replication of significant results was attempted in 2,047 colorectal cancer patients of the International Survival Analysis in Colorectal Cancer Consortium (ISACC). RESULTS: A significant association of the TGFBR3 SNP rs7524066 with more favorable colorectal cancer-specific survival [hazard ratio (HR) per minor allele: 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74-0.94; P value: 0.0033] was replicated in ISACC (HR: 0.82; 95% CI, 0.68-0.98; P value: 0.03). Suggestive evidence for association was found with two IL7 SNPs, rs16906568 and rs7845577. Thirteen SNPs with differential associations with overall survival according to MSI in the discovery analysis were not confirmed. CONCLUSIONS: Common genetic variation in the Treg pathway implicating genes such as TGFBR3 and IL7 was shown to be associated with prognosis of colorectal cancer patients. IMPACT: The implicated genes warrant further investigation.

Associations between molecular characteristics of colorectal serrated polyps and subsequent advanced colorectal neoplasia.

PURPOSE: BRAF mutation and DNA hypermethylation have linked sessile serrated adenomas/polyps (SSA/Ps) to serrated colorectal cancer (CRC) in cross-sectional studies, but they have not been evaluated in a longitudinal study. We aimed to evaluate the associations between molecular markers of serrated polyps and subsequent advanced colorectal neoplasia. METHODS: Study subjects included Kaiser Permanente Washington members aged 20-75 years who received an index colonoscopy between 1/1/1998 and 12/31/2007 and had hyperplastic polyps (HPs) or SSA/Ps according to study pathology review. Polyps from index colonoscopies were removed and assayed for BRAF mutation, CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), and MLH1 methylation. Pathology reports and biopsies from the subsequent lower gastrointestinal endoscopy through 1/1/2013 were reviewed for advanced colorectal neoplasia. We identified additional incident CRC cases through linkage to the Seattle-Puget Sound Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry. We used generalized estimating equations to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for subsequent advanced colorectal neoplasia, comparing index serrated polyps with different molecular markers. RESULTS: We included 553 individuals with index serrated polyps (420 HPs and 133 SSA/Ps) and 795 subsequent endoscopies. The prevalence of BRAF-mutant, CIMP-high, and MLH1-methylated serrated polyps were 51%, 4%, and 2%, respectively. BRAF and CIMP were not associated with subsequent advanced colorectal neoplasia. MLH1-methylated SSP/As were significantly more likely to have subsequent advanced neoplasia (OR = 4.66, 95% CI 1.06-20.51). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that BRAF-mutant and CIMP-high serrated polyps are not associated with subsequent advanced colorectal neoplasia. Among SSA/Ps, MLH1 methylation may be an important marker to identify high-risk CRC precursors.

A New Comprehensive Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Model Incorporating Family History, Personal Characteristics, and Environmental Factors.

PURPOSE: Reducing colorectal cancer incidence and mortality through early detection would improve efficacy if targeted. We developed a colorectal cancer risk prediction model incorporating personal, family, genetic, and environmental risk factors to enhance prevention. METHODS: A familial risk profile (FRP) was calculated to summarize individuals' risk based on detailed cancer family history (FH), family structure, probabilities of mutation in major colorectal cancer susceptibility genes, and a polygenic component. We developed risk models, including individuals' FRP or binary colorectal cancer FH, and colorectal cancer risk factors collected at enrollment using population-based colorectal cancer cases (N = 4,445) and controls (N = 3,967) recruited by the Colon Cancer Family Registry Cohort (CCFRC). Model validation used CCFRC follow-up data for population-based (N = 12,052) and clinic-based (N = 5,584) relatives with no cancer history at recruitment to assess model calibration [expected/observed rate ratio (E/O)] and discrimination [area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC)]. RESULTS: The E/O [95% confidence interval (CI)] for FRP models for population-based relatives were 1.04 (0.74-1.45) for men and 0.86 (0.64-1.20) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 1.15 (0.87-1.58) for men and 1.04 (0.76-1.45) for women. The age-adjusted AUCs (95% CI) for FRP models for population-based relatives were 0.69 (0.60-0.78) for men and 0.70 (0.62-0.77) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 0.77 (0.69-0.84) for men and 0.68 (0.60-0.76) for women. The incremental values of AUC for FRP over FH models for population-based relatives were 0.08 (0.01-0.15) for men and 0.10 (0.04-0.16) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 0.11 (0.05-0.17) for men and 0.11 (0.06-0.17) for women. CONCLUSIONS: Both models calibrated well. The FRP-based model provided better risk stratification and risk discrimination than the FH-based model. IMPACT: Our findings suggest detailed FH may be useful for targeted risk-based screening and clinical management.

Genetic Variant Associated With Survival of Patients With Stage II-III Colon Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Many genetic variants have been associated with colorectal cancer risk, although few have been associated with survival times of patients. Identification of genetic variants associated with survival times might improve our understanding of disease progression and aid in outcome prediction. We performed a genome-wide association study to identify variants associated with colon cancer survival time. METHODS: We performed a post hoc analysis of data from NCCTG N0147 (Alliance), a randomized phase 3 trial of patients with resected stage III colon cancer, and from NSABP C-08 (NRG), a phase 3 trial that compared therapy regimens for patients with resected stage II or III colon cancer. Genotype analyses were performed on DNA from blood samples from 4974 patients. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate the association of each single nucleotide polymorphism with times of overall survival and disease-free survival, adjusting for age at diagnosis, sex, treatment group, and principal components of genetic ancestry. We performed the analysis for studies N0147 and C-08 separately, and results were combined in a fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A locus on chromosome 7p15.2 was significantly associated with overall survival time (P ≤ 5x10-08). The most significant variant at this locus, rs76766811 (P = 1.6x10-08), is common among African Americans (minor allele frequency, approximately 18%) but rare in European Americans (minor allele frequency <0.1%). Within strata of self-reported ancestry, this variant was associated with times of overall survival and disease-free survival in only African Americans (hazard ratio for overall survival, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.88-4.23; P = 5.0x10-07 and hazard ratio for disease-free survival, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.62-3.18; P = 1.8x10-06). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from 2 trials of patients with stage II or III colon cancer, we identified rs76766811 as a potential prognostic variant in African American patients. This finding should be confirmed in additional study populations. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT00096278 (NSABP C-08) and NCT00079274 (NCCTG N0147).