Using Systems Dynamics for Capturing the Multicausality of Factors Affecting Health System Capacity in Latin America while Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Similar interventions to stop the spread of COVID-19 led to different outcomes in Latin American countries. This study aimed to capture the multicausality of factors affecting HS-capacity that could help plan a more effective response, considering health as well as social aspects. A facilitated GMB was constructed by experts and validated with a survey from a wider population. Statistical analyses estimated the impact of the main factors to the HS-capacity and revealed the differences in its mechanisms. The results show a similar four-factor structure in all countries that includes public administration, preparedness, information, and collective self-efficacy. The factors are correlated and have mediating effects with HS-capacity; this is the base for differences among countries. HS-capacity has a strong relation with public administration in Bolivia, while in Nicaragua and Uruguay it is related through preparedness. Nicaragua lacks information as a mediation effect with HS-capacity whereas Bolivia and Uruguay have, respectively, small and large mediation effects with it. These outcomes increase the understanding of the pandemic based on country-specific context and can aid policymaking in low-and middle-income countries by including these factors in future pandemic response models.

Analysis of isolates from Bangladesh highlights multiple ways to carry resistance genes in Salmonella Typhi.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever, caused by Salmonella Typhi, follows a fecal-oral transmission route and is a major global public health concern, especially in developing countries like Bangladesh. Increasing emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious issue; the list of treatments for typhoid fever is ever-decreasing. In addition to IncHI1-type plasmids, Salmonella genomic island (SGI) 11 has been reported to carry AMR genes. Although reports suggest a recent reduction in multidrug resistance (MDR) in the Indian subcontinent, the corresponding genomic changes in the background are unknown. RESULTS: Here, we assembled and annotated complete closed chromosomes and plasmids for 73 S. Typhi isolates using short-length Illumina reads. S. Typhi had an open pan-genome, and the core genome was smaller than previously reported. Considering AMR genes, we identified five variants of SGI11, including the previously reported reference sequence. Five plasmids were identified, including the new plasmids pK91 and pK43; pK43and pHCM2 were not related to AMR. The pHCM1, pPRJEB21992 and pK91 plasmids carried AMR genes and, along with the SGI11 variants, were responsible for resistance phenotypes. pK91 also contained qnr genes, conferred high ciprofloxacin resistance and was related to the H58-sublineage Bdq, which shows the same phenotype. The presence of plasmids (pHCM1 and pK91) and SGI11 were linked to two H58-lineages, Ia and Bd. Loss of plasmids and integration of resistance genes in genomic islands could contribute to the fitness advantage of lineage Ia isolates. CONCLUSIONS: Such events may explain why lineage Ia is globally widespread, while the Bd lineage is locally restricted. Further studies are required to understand how these S. Typhi AMR elements spread and generate new variants. Preventive measures such as vaccination programs should also be considered in endemic countries; such initiatives could potentially reduce the spread of AMR.

The Relevance of a Novel Quantitative Assay to Detect up to 40 Major Streptococcus pneumoniae Serotypes Directly in Clinical Nasopharyngeal and Blood Specimens.

For epidemiological and surveillance purposes, it is relevant to monitor the distribution and dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes. Conventional serotyping methods do not provide rapid or quantitative information on serotype loads. Quantitative serotyping may enable prediction of the invasiveness of a specific serotype compared to other serotypes carried. Here, we describe a novel, rapid multiplex real-time PCR assay for identification and quantification of the 40 most prevalent pneumococcal serotypes and the assay impacts in pneumonia specimens from emerging and developing countries. Eleven multiplex PCR to detect 40 serotypes or serogroups were optimized. Quantification was enabled by reference to standard dilutions of known bacterial load. Performance of the assay was evaluated to specifically type and quantify S. pneumoniae in nasopharyngeal and blood samples from adult and pediatric patients hospitalized with pneumonia (n = 664) from five different countries. Serogroup 6 was widely represented in nasopharyngeal specimens from all five cohorts. The most frequent serotypes in the French, South African, and Brazilian cohorts were 1 and 7A/F, 3 and 19F, and 14, respectively. When both samples were available, the serotype in blood was always present as carriage with other serotypes in the nasopharynx. Moreover, the ability of a serotype to invade the bloodstream may be linked to its nasopharyngeal load. The mean nasopharyngeal concentration of the serotypes that moved to the blood was 3 log-fold higher than the ones only found in the nasopharynx. This novel, rapid, quantitative assay may potentially predict some of the S. pneumoniae serotypes invasiveness and assessment of pneumococcal serotype distribution.

Gastric acid inhibition for fat malabsorption or gastroesophageal reflux disease in cystic fibrosis: longitudinal effect on bacterial colonization and pulmonary function.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate bacterial colonization and pulmonary function longitudinally in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) receiving drugs for gastric acid (GA) inhibition for fat malabsorption or for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of 218 pediatric patients with CF was performed. Multilevel modeling was used to perform longitudinal analysis of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV(1)), forced vital capacity (FVC), maximum expiratory flow at 50% of FVC (MEF(50)), and maximal mid-expiratory flow between 25% and 75% of FVC (MMEF(25-75)). Cox regression was used to calculate Pseudomonas aeruginosa- and Staphylococcus aureus-free survival. RESULTS: Patients with CF and GA inhibition had a significantly smaller yearly decline of MEF(50) and MMEF(25-75) compared with control subjects. Other pulmonary function parameters and P aeruginosa or S aureus acquisition or colonization were not different from that of control subjects. GERD was associated with a significantly reduced pulmonary function (FEV(1) and FVC) and an earlier acquisition of P aeruginosa and S aureus. CONCLUSIONS: GA inhibition did not affect pulmonary function or bacterial acquisition and therefore is not contraindicated in patients with CF. GA inhibition might improve pulmonary function with time, because the decline of MEF(50) and MMEF(25-75) was less pronounced. GERD was associated with a reduced pulmonary function and an earlier acquisition of P aeruginosa and S aureus. Therefore the diagnosis and treatment of GERD should be aggressively pursued in patients with CF.

Risk factors associated with Campylobacter jejuni infections in Curaçao, Netherlands Antilles.

A steady increase in the incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) with a seasonal preponderance, almost exclusively related to Campylobacter jejuni, and a rise in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed Campylobacter enteritis have been reported from Curaçao, Netherlands Antilles. We therefore investigated possible risk factors associated with diarrhea due to epidemic C. jejuni. Typing by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis identified four epidemic clones which accounted for almost 60% of the infections. One hundred six cases were included in a case-control study. Infections with epidemic clones were more frequently observed in specific districts in Willemstad, the capital of Curaçao. One of these clones caused infections during the rainy season only and was associated with the presence of a deep well around the house. Two out of three GBS-related C. jejuni isolates belonged to an epidemic clone. The observations presented point toward water as a possible source of Campylobacter infections.

Molecular evidence for dissemination of unique Campylobacter jejuni clones in Curaçao, Netherlands Antilles.

Campylobacter jejuni isolates (n = 234) associated with gastroenteritis and the Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in the island of Curaçao, Netherlands Antilles, and collected from March 1999 to March 2000 were investigated by a range of molecular typing techniques. Data obtained by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analysis, multilocus sequence typing (MLST), automated ribotyping, and sequence analysis of the short variable region of the flagellin gene (flaA) were analyzed separately and in combination. Similar groupings were obtained by all methods, with the data obtained by MLST and AFLP analysis exhibiting the highest degree of congruency. MLST identified 29 sequence types, which were assigned to 10 major clonal complexes. PFGE, AFLP analysis, and ribotyping identified 10, 9, and 8 of these clonal groups, respectively; however, these three techniques permitted subdivision of the clonal groups into more different types. Members of seven clonal groups comprising 107 isolates were obtained from November 1999 to February 2000, and no distinguishing characteristics were identified for two GBS-associated strains. The sequence type 41 (ST-41), ST-508, and ST-657 clonal complexes and their corresponding AFLP types have been rare or absent in the Campylobacter data sets described to date. We conclude that several clonal complexes of C. jejuni are associated with human disease in Curaçao, and some of these have not been reported elsewhere. Furthermore, given the observation that C. jejuni-associated diseases appear to be more severe from November to February, it can be speculated that this may be due to the presence of virulent clones with a limited span of circulation.

Efficacy of cyclosporine A in the treatment of macrophage activation syndrome in juvenile arthritis: report of five cases.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy of cyclosporine A in the treatment of macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) occurring in children with juvenile arthritis. STUDY DESIGN: MAS developed in two boys and three girls with systemic juvenile arthritis (four) and polyarticular juvenile arthritis (one). In three children whose condition was life-threatening, increased parenteral administration of corticosteroids failed to improve their condition; therefore cyclosporine A (2 to 5 mg/kg per day) was added. In two other patients with less severe clinical manifestations, cyclosporine A alone (2 to 8 mg/kg per day) was given. RESULTS: After the introduction of cyclosporine A, rapid improvement was obtained in all patients and apyrexia occurred within 24 to 48 hours. The biologic abnormalities disappeared more slowly (up to 5 weeks for liver enzymes). CONCLUSIONS: These observations underline the usefulness of cyclosporine A in this complication. The use of this drug may circumvent the need for increased doses of corticosteroids in some patients. The mechanism of action of cyclosporine A remains speculative, but these results indicate indirectly that T-helper lymphocytes may play a role in the pathogenesis of MAS.

Clinical outcome of long-term management of patients with vitamin B12-unresponsive methylmalonic acidemia.

We performed a retrospective study of all patients with methylmalonic acidemia diagnosed during the past 20 years. Only those patients who were nonresponsive to vitamin B12 in vivo and in vitro were included. The final study group consisted of 26 patients, of whom 16 had a neonatal (early) onset; in 10 patients the diagnosis was made after 2 months to 2.2 years (late onset). Of the early-onset patients, 14 (87%) died, with a mean survival time of 1.5 years (range, 10 days to 2.5 years), whereas four of the late-onset patients (40%) died (range, 1.2 to 15 years). At present, eight patients are alive; their mean age is 4.6 years (range, 1 to 10 years). In the early 1970s, treatment was based on the principles of treating patients with phenylketonuria: restricting natural protein intake and supplementing essential amino acids, vitamins, and trace elements. After about 1980, nasogastric tube feeding became a mainstay of the therapy, natural protein restriction became stricter, and the use of essential amino acid mixtures diminished. Carnitine was added to the therapy and, in later years, metronidazole. Since these changes were implemented, the number of episodes of metabolic decompensation and hospitalizations has decreased. Mean survival time of the patients, in particular those with early onset, has only slightly improved, partly because of psychosocial problems in many of these families. Almost all the patients, especially those with early onset, had some degree of neurologic impairment and mental retardation, and many patients were at less than 2 SD for weight or height or both. In contrast, the neurologic and mental status of the late-onset patients was frequently normal, and their weight and height were more often within normal limits. Our results show that the treatment of methylmalonic acidemia still poses considerable problems; despite intense medical efforts and familial stress, the prognosis for the early-onset patients is disappointing. The patients with late-onset disease, however, appear to have a fairly good prognosis with the present therapeutic approach. Liver transplantation or possibly genetic therapy might improve our results in the future.