Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning.

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (ß coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Genetic drivers and cellular selection of female mosaic X chromosome loss.

Mosaic loss of the X chromosome (mLOX) is the most common clonal somatic alteration in leukocytes of female individuals1,2, but little is known about its genetic determinants or phenotypic consequences. Here, to address this, we used data from 883,574 female participants across 8 biobanks; 12% of participants exhibited detectable mLOX in approximately 2% of leukocytes. Female participants with mLOX had an increased risk of myeloid and lymphoid leukaemias. Genetic analyses identified 56 common variants associated with mLOX, implicating genes with roles in chromosomal missegregation, cancer predisposition and autoimmune diseases. Exome-sequence analyses identified rare missense variants in FBXO10 that confer a twofold increased risk of mLOX. Only a small fraction of associations was shared with mosaic Y chromosome loss, suggesting that distinct biological processes drive formation and clonal expansion of sex chromosome missegregation. Allelic shift analyses identified X chromosome alleles that are preferentially retained in mLOX, demonstrating variation at many loci under cellular selection. A polygenic score including 44 allelic shift loci correctly inferred the retained X chromosomes in 80.7% of mLOX cases in the top decile. Our results support a model in which germline variants predispose female individuals to acquiring mLOX, with the allelic content of the X chromosome possibly shaping the magnitude of clonal expansion.

HLA allele-calling using multi-ancestry whole-exome sequencing from the UK Biobank identifies 129 novel associations in 11 autoimmune diseases.

The human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region on chromosome 6 is strongly associated with many immune-mediated and infection-related diseases. Due to its highly polymorphic nature and complex linkage disequilibrium patterns, traditional genetic association studies of single nucleotide polymorphisms do not perform well in this region. Instead, the field has adopted the assessment of the association of HLA alleles (i.e., entire HLA gene haplotypes) with disease. Often based on genotyping arrays, these association studies impute HLA alleles, decreasing accuracy and thus statistical power for rare alleles and in non-European ancestries. Here, we use whole-exome sequencing (WES) from 454,824 UK Biobank (UKB) participants to directly call HLA alleles using the HLA-HD algorithm. We show this method is more accurate than imputing HLA alleles and harness the improved statistical power to identify 360 associations for 11 auto-immune phenotypes (at least 129 likely novel), leading to better insights into the specific coding polymorphisms that underlie these diseases. We show that HLA alleles with synonymous variants, often overlooked in HLA studies, can significantly influence these phenotypes. Lastly, we show that HLA sequencing may improve polygenic risk scores accuracy across ancestries. These findings allow better characterization of the role of the HLA region in human disease.

Population analyses of mosaic X chromosome loss identify genetic drivers and widespread signatures of cellular selection.

Mosaic loss of the X chromosome (mLOX) is the most commonly occurring clonal somatic alteration detected in the leukocytes of women, yet little is known about its genetic determinants or phenotypic consequences. To address this, we estimated mLOX in >900,000 women across eight biobanks, identifying 10% of women with detectable X loss in approximately 2% of their leukocytes. Out of 1,253 diseases examined, women with mLOX had an elevated risk of myeloid and lymphoid leukemias and pneumonia. Genetic analyses identified 49 common variants influencing mLOX, implicating genes with established roles in chromosomal missegregation, cancer predisposition, and autoimmune diseases. Complementary exome-sequence analyses identified rare missense variants in FBXO10 which confer a two-fold increased risk of mLOX. A small fraction of these associations were shared with mosaic Y chromosome loss in men, suggesting different biological processes drive the formation and clonal expansion of sex chromosome missegregation events. Allelic shift analyses identified alleles on the X chromosome which are preferentially retained, demonstrating that variation at many loci across the X chromosome is under cellular selection. A novel polygenic score including 44 independent X chromosome allelic shift loci correctly inferred the retained X chromosomes in 80.7% of mLOX cases in the top decile. Collectively our results support a model where germline variants predispose women to acquiring mLOX, with the allelic content of the X chromosome possibly shaping the magnitude of subsequent clonal expansion.

Chronology of natural selection in Oceanian genomes.

As human populations left Asia to first settle in Oceania around 50,000 years ago, they entered a territory ecologically separated from the Old World for millions of years. We analyzed genomic data of 239 modern Oceanian individuals to detect and date signals of selection specific to this region. Combining both relative and absolute dating approaches, we identified a strong selection pattern between 52,000 and 54,000 years ago in the genomes of descendants of the first settlers of Sahul. This strikingly corresponds to the dates of initial settlement as inferred from archaeological evidence. Loci under selection during this period, some showing enrichment in Denisovan ancestry, overlap genes involved in the immune response and diet, especially based on plants. Pathogens and natural resources, especially from endemic plants, therefore appear to have acted as strong selective pressures on the genomes of the first settlers of Sahul.

Episodes of Diversification and Isolation in Island Southeast Asian and Near Oceanian Male Lineages.

Island Southeast Asia (ISEA) and Oceania host one of the world's richest assemblages of human phenotypic, linguistic, and cultural diversity. Despite this, the region's male genetic lineages are globally among the last to remain unresolved. We compiled ∼9.7 Mb of Y chromosome (chrY) sequence from a diverse sample of over 380 men from this region, including 152 first reported here. The granularity of this data set allows us to fully resolve and date the regional chrY phylogeny. This new high-resolution tree confirms two main population bursts: multiple rapid diversifications following the region's initial settlement ∼50 kya, and extensive expansions <6 kya. Notably, ∼40-25 kya the deep rooting local lineages of C-M130, M-P256, and S-B254 show almost no further branching events in ISEA, New Guinea, and Australia, matching a similar pause in diversification seen in maternal mitochondrial DNA lineages. The main local lineages start diversifying ∼25 kya, at the time of the last glacial maximum. This improved chrY topology highlights localized events with important historical implications, including pre-Holocene contact between Mainland and ISEA, potential interactions between Australia and the Papuan world, and a sustained period of diversification following the flooding of the ancient Sunda and Sahul continents as the insular landscape observed today formed. The high-resolution phylogeny of the chrY presented here thus enables a detailed exploration of past isolation, interaction, and change in one of the world's least understood regions.

Genetic architecture of gene regulation in Indonesian populations identifies QTLs associated with global and local ancestries.

Lack of diversity in human genomics limits our understanding of the genetic underpinnings of complex traits, hinders precision medicine, and contributes to health disparities. To map genetic effects on gene regulation in the underrepresented Indonesian population, we have integrated genotype, gene expression, and CpG methylation data from 115 participants across three island populations that capture the major sources of genomic diversity in the region. In a comparison with European datasets, we identify eQTLs shared between Indonesia and Europe as well as population-specific eQTLs that exhibit differences in allele frequencies and/or overall expression levels between populations. By combining local ancestry and archaic introgression inference with eQTLs and methylQTLs, we identify regulatory loci driven by modern Papuan ancestry as well as introgressed Denisovan and Neanderthal variation. GWAS colocalization connects QTLs detected here to hematological traits, and further comparison with European datasets reflects the poor overall transferability of GWAS statistics across diverse populations. Our findings illustrate how population-specific genetic architecture, local ancestry, and archaic introgression drive variation in gene regulation across genetically distinct and in admixed populations and highlight the need for performing association studies on non-European populations.

Widespread Denisovan ancestry in Island Southeast Asia but no evidence of substantial super-archaic hominin admixture.

The hominin fossil record of Island Southeast Asia (ISEA) indicates that at least two endemic 'super-archaic' species-Homo luzonensis and H. floresiensis-were present around the time anatomically modern humans arrived in the region >50,000 years ago. Intriguingly, contemporary human populations across ISEA carry distinct genomic traces of ancient interbreeding events with Denisovans-a separate hominin lineage that currently lacks a fossil record in ISEA. To query this apparent disparity between fossil and genetic evidence, we performed a comprehensive search for super-archaic introgression in >400 modern human genomes, including >200 from ISEA. Our results corroborate widespread Denisovan ancestry in ISEA populations, but fail to detect any substantial super-archaic admixture signals compatible with the endemic fossil record of ISEA. We discuss the implications of our findings for the understanding of hominin history in ISEA, including future research directions that might help to unlock more details about the prehistory of the enigmatic Denisovans.

Differences in local population history at the finest level: the case of the Estonian population.

Several recent studies detected fine-scale genetic structure in human populations. Hence, groups conventionally treated as single populations harbour significant variation in terms of allele frequencies and patterns of haplotype sharing. It has been shown that these findings should be considered when performing studies of genetic associations and natural selection, especially when dealing with polygenic phenotypes. However, there is little understanding of the practical effects of such genetic structure on demography reconstructions and selection scans when focusing on recent population history. Here we tested the impact of population structure on such inferences using high-coverage (~30×) genome sequences of 2305 Estonians. We show that different regions of Estonia differ in both effective population size dynamics and signatures of natural selection. By analyzing identity-by-descent segments we also reveal that some Estonian regions exhibit evidence of a bottleneck 10-15 generations ago reflecting sequential episodes of wars, plague and famine, although this signal is virtually undetected when treating Estonia as a single population. Besides that, we provide a framework for relating effective population size estimated from genetic data to actual census size and validate it on the Estonian population. This approach may be widely used both to cross-check estimates based on historical sources as well as to get insight into times and/or regions with no other information available. Our results suggest that the history of human populations within the last few millennia can be highly region specific and cannot be properly studied without taking local genetic structure into account.

Genome-wide DNA methylation and gene expression patterns reflect genetic ancestry and environmental differences across the Indonesian archipelago.

Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, host to striking levels of human diversity, regional patterns of admixture, and varying degrees of introgression from both Neanderthals and Denisovans. However, it has been largely excluded from the human genomics sequencing boom of the last decade. To serve as a benchmark dataset of molecular phenotypes across the region, we generated genome-wide CpG methylation and gene expression measurements in over 100 individuals from three locations that capture the major genomic and geographical axes of diversity across the Indonesian archipelago. Investigating between- and within-island differences, we find up to 10.55% of tested genes are differentially expressed between the islands of Sumba and New Guinea. Variation in gene expression is closely associated with DNA methylation, with expression levels of 9.80% of genes correlating with nearby promoter CpG methylation, and many of these genes being differentially expressed between islands. Genes identified in our differential expression and methylation analyses are enriched in pathways involved in immunity, highlighting Indonesia's tropical role as a source of infectious disease diversity and the strong selective pressures these diseases have exerted on humans. Finally, we identify robust within-island variation in DNA methylation and gene expression, likely driven by fine-scale environmental differences across sampling sites. Together, these results strongly suggest complex relationships between DNA methylation, transcription, archaic hominin introgression and immunity, all jointly shaped by the environment. This has implications for the application of genomic medicine, both in critically understudied Indonesia and globally, and will allow a better understanding of the interacting roles of genomic and environmental factors shaping molecular and complex phenotypes.

Correction to: Archaic mitochondrial DNA inserts in modern day nuclear genomes.

Following the publication of this article [1], the authors reported that the captions of Figs. 3 and 4 were published in the incorrect order, whereby they mismatch with their corresponding images.

Archaic mitochondrial DNA inserts in modern day nuclear genomes.

BACKGROUND: Traces of interbreeding of Neanderthals and Denisovans with modern humans in the form of archaic DNA have been detected in the genomes of present-day human populations outside sub-Saharan Africa. Up to now, only nuclear archaic DNA has been detected in modern humans; we therefore attempted to identify archaic mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) residing in modern human nuclear genomes as nuclear inserts of mitochondrial DNA (NUMTs). RESULTS: We analysed 221 high-coverage genomes from Oceania and Indonesia using an approach which identifies reads that map both to the nuclear and mitochondrial DNA. We then classified reads according to the source of the mtDNA, and found one NUMT of Denisovan mtDNA origin, present in 15 analysed genomes; analysis of the flanking region suggests that this insertion is more likely to have happened in a Denisovan individual and introgressed into modern humans with the Denisovan nuclear DNA, rather than in a descendant of a Denisovan female and a modern human male. CONCLUSIONS: Here we present our pipeline for detecting introgressed NUMTs in next generation sequencing data that can be used on genomes sequenced in the future. Further discovery of such archaic NUMTs in modern humans can be used to detect interbreeding between archaic and modern humans and can reveal new insights into the nature of such interbreeding events.

Multiple Deeply Divergent Denisovan Ancestries in Papuans.

Genome sequences are known for two archaic hominins-Neanderthals and Denisovans-which interbred with anatomically modern humans as they dispersed out of Africa. We identified high-confidence archaic haplotypes in 161 new genomes spanning 14 island groups in Island Southeast Asia and New Guinea and found large stretches of DNA that are inconsistent with a single introgressing Denisovan origin. Instead, modern Papuans carry hundreds of gene variants from two deeply divergent Denisovan lineages that separated over 350 thousand years ago. Spatial and temporal structure among these lineages suggest that introgression from one of these Denisovan groups predominantly took place east of the Wallace line and continued until near the end of the Pleistocene. A third Denisovan lineage occurs in modern East Asians. This regional mosaic suggests considerable complexity in archaic contact, with modern humans interbreeding with multiple Denisovan groups that were geographically isolated from each other over deep evolutionary time.

Genes reveal traces of common recent demographic history for most of the Uralic-speaking populations.

BACKGROUND: The genetic origins of Uralic speakers from across a vast territory in the temperate zone of North Eurasia have remained elusive. Previous studies have shown contrasting proportions of Eastern and Western Eurasian ancestry in their mitochondrial and Y chromosomal gene pools. While the maternal lineages reflect by and large the geographic background of a given Uralic-speaking population, the frequency of Y chromosomes of Eastern Eurasian origin is distinctively high among European Uralic speakers. The autosomal variation of Uralic speakers, however, has not yet been studied comprehensively. RESULTS: Here, we present a genome-wide analysis of 15 Uralic-speaking populations which cover all main groups of the linguistic family. We show that contemporary Uralic speakers are genetically very similar to their local geographical neighbours. However, when studying relationships among geographically distant populations, we find that most of the Uralic speakers and some of their neighbours share a genetic component of possibly Siberian origin. Additionally, we show that most Uralic speakers share significantly more genomic segments identity-by-descent with each other than with geographically equidistant speakers of other languages. We find that correlated genome-wide genetic and lexical distances among Uralic speakers suggest co-dispersion of genes and languages. Yet, we do not find long-range genetic ties between Estonians and Hungarians with their linguistic sisters that would distinguish them from their non-Uralic-speaking neighbours. CONCLUSIONS: We show that most Uralic speakers share a distinct ancestry component of likely Siberian origin, which suggests that the spread of Uralic languages involved at least some demic component.

Investigating the origins of eastern Polynesians using genome-wide data from the Leeward Society Isles.

The debate concerning the origin of the Polynesian speaking peoples has been recently reinvigorated by genetic evidence for secondary migrations to western Polynesia from the New Guinea region during the 2nd millennium BP. Using genome-wide autosomal data from the Leeward Society Islands, the ancient cultural hub of eastern Polynesia, we find that the inhabitants' genomes also demonstrate evidence of this episode of admixture, dating to 1,700-1,200 BP. This supports a late settlement chronology for eastern Polynesia, commencing ~1,000 BP, after the internal differentiation of Polynesian society. More than 70% of the autosomal ancestry of Leeward Society Islanders derives from Island Southeast Asia with the lowland populations of the Philippines as the single largest potential source. These long-distance migrants into Polynesia experienced additional admixture with northern Melanesians prior to the secondary migrations of the 2nd millennium BP. Moreover, the genetic diversity of mtDNA and Y chromosome lineages in the Leeward Society Islands is consistent with linguistic evidence for settlement of eastern Polynesia proceeding from the central northern Polynesian outliers in the Solomon Islands. These results stress the complex demographic history of the Leeward Society Islands and challenge phylogenetic models of cultural evolution predicated on eastern Polynesia being settled from Samoa.

Evidence of Early-Stage Selection on EPAS1 and GPR126 Genes in Andean High Altitude Populations.

The aim of this study is to identify genetic variants that harbour signatures of recent positive selection and may facilitate physiological adaptations to hypobaric hypoxia. To achieve this, we conducted whole genome sequencing and lung function tests in 19 Argentinean highlanders (>3500 m) comparing them to 16 Native American lowlanders. We developed a new statistical procedure using a combination of population branch statistics (PBS) and number of segregating sites by length (nSL) to detect beneficial alleles that arose since the settlement of the Andes and are currently present in 15-50% of the population. We identified two missense variants as significant targets of selection. One of these variants, located within the GPR126 gene, has been previously associated with the forced expiratory volume/forced vital capacity ratio. The other novel missense variant mapped to the EPAS1 gene encoding the hypoxia inducible factor 2α. EPAS1 is known to be the major selection candidate gene in Tibetans. The derived allele of GPR126 is associated with lung function in our sample of highlanders (p < 0.05). These variants may contribute to the physiological adaptations to hypobaric hypoxia, possibly by altering lung function. The new statistical approach might be a useful tool to detect selected variants in population studies.

Complex Patterns of Admixture across the Indonesian Archipelago.

Indonesia, an island nation as large as continental Europe, hosts a sizeable proportion of global human diversity, yet remains surprisingly undercharacterized genetically. Here, we substantially expand on existing studies by reporting genome-scale data for nearly 500 individuals from 25 populations in Island Southeast Asia, New Guinea, and Oceania, notably including previously unsampled islands across the Indonesian archipelago. We use high-resolution analyses of haplotype diversity to reveal fine detail of regional admixture patterns, with a particular focus on the Holocene. We find that recent population history within Indonesia is complex, and that populations from the Philippines made important genetic contributions in the early phases of the Austronesian expansion. Different, but interrelated processes, acted in the east and west. The Austronesian migration took several centuries to spread across the eastern part of the archipelago, where genetic admixture postdates the archeological signal. As with the Neolithic expansion further east in Oceania and in Europe, genetic mixing with local inhabitants in eastern Indonesia lagged behind the arrival of farming populations. In contrast, western Indonesia has a more complicated admixture history shaped by interactions with mainland Asian and Austronesian newcomers, which for some populations occurred more than once. Another layer of complexity in the west was introduced by genetic contact with South Asia and strong demographic events in isolated local groups.

Selective sweep on human amylase genes postdates the split with Neanderthals.

Humans have more copies of amylase genes than other primates. It is still poorly understood, however, when the copy number expansion occurred and whether its spread was enhanced by selection. Here we assess amylase copy numbers in a global sample of 480 high coverage genomes and find that regions flanking the amylase locus show notable depression of genetic diversity both in African and non-African populations. Analysis of genetic variation in these regions supports the model of an early selective sweep in the human lineage after the split of humans from Neanderthals which led to the fixation of multiple copies of AMY1 in place of a single copy. We find evidence of multiple secondary losses of copy number with the highest frequency (52%) of a deletion of AMY2A and associated low copy number of AMY1 in Northeast Siberian populations whose diet has been low in starch content.

Genomic analyses inform on migration events during the peopling of Eurasia.

High-coverage whole-genome sequence studies have so far focused on a limited number of geographically restricted populations, or been targeted at specific diseases, such as cancer. Nevertheless, the availability of high-resolution genomic data has led to the development of new methodologies for inferring population history and refuelled the debate on the mutation rate in humans. Here we present the Estonian Biocentre Human Genome Diversity Panel (EGDP), a dataset of 483 high-coverage human genomes from 148 populations worldwide, including 379 new genomes from 125 populations, which we group into diversity and selection sets. We analyse this dataset to refine estimates of continent-wide patterns of heterozygosity, long- and short-distance gene flow, archaic admixture, and changes in effective population size through time as well as for signals of positive or balancing selection. We find a genetic signature in present-day Papuans that suggests that at least 2% of their genome originates from an early and largely extinct expansion of anatomically modern humans (AMHs) out of Africa. Together with evidence from the western Asian fossil record, and admixture between AMHs and Neanderthals predating the main Eurasian expansion, our results contribute to the mounting evidence for the presence of AMHs out of Africa earlier than 75,000 years ago.

Small Traditional Human Communities Sustain Genomic Diversity over Microgeographic Scales despite Linguistic Isolation.

At least since the Neolithic, humans have largely lived in networks of small, traditional communities. Often socially isolated, these groups evolved distinct languages and cultures over microgeographic scales of just tens of kilometers. Population genetic theory tells us that genetic drift should act quickly in such isolated groups, thus raising the question: do networks of small human communities maintain levels of genetic diversity over microgeographic scales? This question can no longer be asked in most parts of the world, which have been heavily impacted by historical events that make traditional society structures the exception. However, such studies remain possible in parts of Island Southeast Asia and Oceania, where traditional ways of life are still practiced. We captured genome-wide genetic data, together with linguistic records, for a case-study system-eight villages distributed across Sumba, a small, remote island in eastern Indonesia. More than 4,000 years after these communities were established during the Neolithic period, most speak different languages and can be distinguished genetically. Yet their nuclear diversity is not reduced, instead being comparable to other, even much larger, regional groups. Modeling reveals a separation of time scales: while languages and culture can evolve quickly, creating social barriers, sporadic migration averaged over many generations is sufficient to keep villages linked genetically. This loosely-connected network structure, once the global norm and still extant on Sumba today, provides a living proxy to explore fine-scale genome dynamics in the sort of small traditional communities within which the most recent episodes of human evolution occurred.