Climate-dependent responses of root and shoot biomass to drought duration and intensity in grasslands-a meta-analysis.

Understanding the effects of altered precipitation regimes on root biomass in grasslands is crucial for predicting grassland responses to climate change. Nonetheless, studies investigating the effects of drought on belowground vegetation have produced mixed results. In particular, root biomass under reduced precipitation may increase, decrease or show a delayed response compared to shoot biomass, highlighting a knowledge gap in the relationship between belowground net primary production and drought. To address this gap, we conducted a meta-analysis of nearly 100 field observations of grassland root and shoot biomass changes under experimental rainfall reduction to disentangle the main drivers behind grassland responses to drought. Using a response-ratio approach we tested the hypothesis that water scarcity would induce a decrease in total biomass, but an increase in belowground biomass allocation with increased drought length and intensity, and that climate (as defined by the aridity index of the study location) would be an additional predictor. As expected, meteorological drought decreased root and shoot biomass, but aboveground and belowground biomass exhibited contrasting responses to drought duration and intensity, and their interaction with climate. In particular, drought duration had negative effects on root biomass only in wet climates while more intense drought had negative effects on root biomass only in dry climates. Shoot biomass responded negatively to drought duration regardless of climate. These results show that long-term climate is an important modulator of belowground vegetation responses to drought, which might be a consequence of different drought tolerance and adaptation strategies. This variability in vegetation responses to drought suggests that physiological plasticity and community composition shifts may mediate how climate affects carbon allocation in grasslands, and thus ultimately carbon storage in soil.

Vegetation, topography, and soil depth drive microbial community structure in two Swedish grasslands.

Soil microbial diversity and community composition are shaped by various factors linked to land management, topographic position, and vegetation. To study the effects of these drivers, we characterized fungal and bacterial communities from bulk soil at four soil depths ranging from the surface to below the rooting zone of two Swedish grasslands with differing land-use histories, each including both an upper and a lower catenary position. We hypothesized that differences in plant species richness and plant functional group composition between the four study sites would drive the variation in soil microbial community composition and correlate with microbial diversity, and that microbial biomass and diversity would decrease with soil depth following a decline in resource availability. While vegetation was identified as the main driver of microbial community composition, the explained variation was significantly higher for bacteria than for fungi, and the communities differed more between grasslands than between catenary positions. Microbial biomass derived from DNA abundance decreased with depth, but diversity remained relatively stable, indicating diverse microbial communities even below the rooting zone. Finally, plant-microbial diversity correlations were significant only for specific plant and fungal functional groups, emphasizing the importance of functional interactions over general species richness.

Microbial carbon use efficiency promotes global soil carbon storage.

Soils store more carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems1,2. How soil organic carbon (SOC) forms and persists remains uncertain1,3, which makes it challenging to understand how it will respond to climatic change3,4. It has been suggested that soil microorganisms play an important role in SOC formation, preservation and loss5-7. Although microorganisms affect the accumulation and loss of soil organic matter through many pathways4,6,8-11, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an integrative metric that can capture the balance of these processes12,13. Although CUE has the potential to act as a predictor of variation in SOC storage, the role of CUE in SOC persistence remains unresolved7,14,15. Here we examine the relationship between CUE and the preservation of SOC, and interactions with climate, vegetation and edaphic properties, using a combination of global-scale datasets, a microbial-process explicit model, data assimilation, deep learning and meta-analysis. We find that CUE is at least four times as important as other evaluated factors, such as carbon input, decomposition or vertical transport, in determining SOC storage and its spatial variation across the globe. In addition, CUE shows a positive correlation with SOC content. Our findings point to microbial CUE as a major determinant of global SOC storage. Understanding the microbial processes underlying CUE and their environmental dependence may help the prediction of SOC feedback to a changing climate.

Extensive global wetland loss over the past three centuries.

Wetlands have long been drained for human use, thereby strongly affecting greenhouse gas fluxes, flood control, nutrient cycling and biodiversity1,2. Nevertheless, the global extent of natural wetland loss remains remarkably uncertain3. Here, we reconstruct the spatial distribution and timing of wetland loss through conversion to seven human land uses between 1700 and 2020, by combining national and subnational records of drainage and conversion with land-use maps and simulated wetland extents. We estimate that 3.4 million km2 (confidence interval 2.9-3.8) of inland wetlands have been lost since 1700, primarily for conversion to croplands. This net loss of 21% (confidence interval 16-23%) of global wetland area is lower than that suggested previously by extrapolations of data disproportionately from high-loss regions. Wetland loss has been concentrated in Europe, the United States and China, and rapidly expanded during the mid-twentieth century. Our reconstruction elucidates the timing and land-use drivers of global wetland losses, providing an improved historical baseline to guide assessment of wetland loss impact on Earth system processes, conservation planning to protect remaining wetlands and prioritization of sites for wetland restoration4.

Anthropogenic emission is the main contributor to the rise of atmospheric methane during 1993-2017.

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have shown a puzzling resumption in growth since 2007 following a period of stabilization from 2000 to 2006. Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to explain the temporal variations in CH4 growth, and attribute the rise of atmospheric CH4 either to increases in emissions from fossil fuel activities, agriculture and natural wetlands, or to a decrease in the atmospheric chemical sink. Here, we use a comprehensive ensemble of CH4 source estimates and isotopic δ13C-CH4 source signature data to show that the resumption of CH4 growth is most likely due to increased anthropogenic emissions. Our emission scenarios that have the fewest biases with respect to isotopic composition suggest that the agriculture, landfill and waste sectors were responsible for 53 ± 13% of the renewed growth over the period 2007-2017 compared to 2000-2006; industrial fossil fuel sources explained an additional 34 ± 24%, and wetland sources contributed the least at 13 ± 9%. The hypothesis that a large increase in emissions from natural wetlands drove the decrease in atmospheric δ13C-CH4 values cannot be reconciled with current process-based wetland CH4 models. This finding suggests the need for increased wetland measurements to better understand the contemporary and future role of wetlands in the rise of atmospheric methane and climate feedback. Our findings highlight the predominant role of anthropogenic activities in driving the growth of atmospheric CH4 concentrations.

Temperature effects on carbon storage are controlled by soil stabilisation capacities.

Physical and chemical stabilisation mechanisms are now known to play a critical role in controlling carbon (C) storage in mineral soils, leading to suggestions that climate warming-induced C losses may be lower than previously predicted. By analysing > 9,000 soil profiles, here we show that, overall, C storage declines strongly with mean annual temperature. However, the reduction in C storage with temperature was more than three times greater in coarse-textured soils, with limited capacities for stabilising organic matter, than in fine-textured soils with greater stabilisation capacities. This pattern was observed independently in cool and warm regions, and after accounting for potentially confounding factors (plant productivity, precipitation, aridity, cation exchange capacity, and pH). The results could not, however, be represented by an established Earth system model (ESM). We conclude that warming will promote substantial soil C losses, but ESMs may not be predicting these losses accurately or which stocks are most vulnerable.

Fungi in Permafrost-Affected Soils of the Canadian Arctic: Horizon- and Site-Specific Keystone Taxa Revealed by Co-Occurrence Network.

Permafrost-affected soil stores a significant amount of organic carbon. Identifying the biological constraints of soil organic matter transformation, e.g., the interaction of major soil microbial soil organic matter decomposers, is crucial for predicting carbon vulnerability in permafrost-affected soil. Fungi are important players in the decomposition of soil organic matter and often interact in various mutualistic relationships during this process. We investigated four different soil horizon types (including specific horizons of cryoturbated soil organic matter (cryoOM)) across different types of permafrost-affected soil in the Western Canadian Arctic, determined the composition of fungal communities by sequencing (Illumina MPS) the fungal internal transcribed spacer region, assigned fungal lifestyles, and by determining the co-occurrence of fungal network properties, identified the topological role of keystone fungal taxa. Compositional analysis revealed a significantly higher relative proportion of the litter saprotroph Lachnum and root-associated saprotroph Phialocephala in the topsoil and the ectomycorrhizal close-contact exploring Russula in cryoOM, whereas Sites 1 and 2 had a significantly higher mean proportion of plant pathogens and lichenized trophic modes. Co-occurrence network analysis revealed the lowest modularity and average path length, and highest clustering coefficient in cryoOM, which suggested a lower network resistance to environmental perturbation. Zi-Pi plot analysis suggested that some keystone taxa changed their role from generalist to specialist, depending on the specific horizon concerned, Cladophialophora in topsoil, saprotrophic Mortierella in cryoOM, and Penicillium in subsoil were classified as generalists for the respective horizons but specialists elsewhere. The litter saprotrophic taxon Cadophora finlandica played a role as a generalist in Site 1 and specialist in the rest of the sites. Overall, these results suggested that fungal communities within cryoOM were more susceptible to environmental change and some taxa may shift their role, which may lead to changes in carbon storage in permafrost-affected soil.

Permafrost Thaw Increases Methylmercury Formation in Subarctic Fennoscandia.

Methylmercury (MeHg) forms in anoxic environments and can bioaccumulate and biomagnify in aquatic food webs to concentrations of concern for human and wildlife health. Mercury (Hg) pollution in the Arctic environment may worsen as these areas warm and Hg, currently locked in permafrost soils, is remobilized. One of the main concerns is the development of Hg methylation hotspots in the terrestrial environment due to thermokarst formation. The extent to which net methylation of Hg is enhanced upon thaw is, however, largely unknown. Here, we have studied the formation of Hg methylation hotspots using existing thaw gradients at five Fennoscandian permafrost peatland sites. Total Hg (HgT) and MeHg concentrations were analyzed in 178 soil samples from 14 peat cores. We observed 10 times higher concentrations of MeHg and 13 times higher %MeHg in the collapse fen (representing thawed conditions) as compared to the peat plateau (representing frozen conditions). This suggests significantly greater net methylation of Hg when thermokarst wetlands are formed. In addition, we report HgT to soil organic carbon ratios representative of Fennoscandian permafrost peatlands (median and interquartile range of 0.09 ± 0.07 µg HgT g-1 C) that are of value for future estimates of circumpolar HgT stocks.

Spatial heterogeneity and environmental predictors of permafrost region soil organic carbon stocks.

Large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) have accumulated in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region, but their current amounts and future fate remain uncertain. By analyzing dataset combining >2700 soil profiles with environmental variables in a geospatial framework, we generated spatially explicit estimates of permafrost-region SOC stocks, quantified spatial heterogeneity, and identified key environmental predictors. We estimated that Pg C are stored in the top 3 m of permafrost region soils. The greatest uncertainties occurred in circumpolar toe-slope positions and in flat areas of the Tibetan region. We found that soil wetness index and elevation are the dominant topographic controllers and surface air temperature (circumpolar region) and precipitation (Tibetan region) are significant climatic controllers of SOC stocks. Our results provide first high-resolution geospatial assessment of permafrost region SOC stocks and their relationships with environmental factors, which are crucial for modeling the response of permafrost affected soils to changing climate.

Microbiome structure and functional potential in permafrost soils of the Western Canadian Arctic.

Substantial amounts of topsoil organic matter (OM) in Arctic Cryosols have been translocated by the process of cryoturbation into deeper soil horizons (cryoOM), reducing its decomposition. Recent Arctic warming deepens the Cryosols´ active layer, making more topsoil and cryoOM carbon accessible for microbial transformation. To quantify bacteria, archaea and selected microbial groups (methanogens - mcrA gene and diazotrophs - nifH gene) and to investigate bacterial and archaeal diversity, we collected 83 soil samples from four different soil horizons of three distinct tundra types located in Qikiqtaruk (Hershel Island, Western Canada). In general, the abundance of bacteria and diazotrophs decreased from topsoil to permafrost, but not for cryoOM. No such difference was observed for archaea and methanogens. CryoOM was enriched with oligotrophic (slow-growing microorganism) taxa capable of recalcitrant OM degradation. We found distinct microbial patterns in each tundra type: topsoil from wet-polygonal tundra had the lowest abundance of bacteria and diazotrophs, but the highest abundance of methanogens. Wet-polygonal tundra, therefore, represented a hotspot for methanogenesis. Oligotrophic and copiotrophic (fast-growing microorganism) genera of methanogens and diazotrophs were distinctly distributed in topsoil and cryoOM, resulting in different rates of nitrogen flux into these horizons affecting OM vulnerability and potential CO2 and CH4 release.

A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming.

Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τs) with warming. An approximation to the latter term for the top one metre of soil (ΔCs,τ) can be diagnosed from projections made with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESMs), and is found to span a large range even at 2 °C of global warming (-196 ± 117 PgC). Here, we present a constraint on ΔCs,τ, which makes use of current heterotrophic respiration and the spatial variability of τs inferred from observations. This spatial emergent constraint allows us to halve the uncertainty in ΔCs,τ at 2 °C to -232 ± 52 PgC.

Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw.

Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y-1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.

Deep Learning Optimizes Data-Driven Representation of Soil Organic Carbon in Earth System Model Over the Conterminous United States.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a key component of the global carbon cycle, yet it is not well-represented in Earth system models to accurately predict global carbon dynamics in response to climate change. This novel study integrated deep learning, data assimilation, 25,444 vertical soil profiles, and the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to optimize the model representation of SOC over the conterminous United States. We firstly constrained parameters in CLM5 using observations of vertical profiles of SOC in both a batch mode (using all individual soil layers in one batch) and at individual sites (site-by-site). The estimated parameter values from the site-by-site data assimilation were then either randomly sampled (random-sampling) to generate continentally homogeneous (constant) parameter values or maximally preserved for their spatially heterogeneous distributions (varying parameter values to match the spatial patterns from the site-by-site data assimilation) so as to optimize spatial representation of SOC in CLM5 through a deep learning technique (neural networking) over the conterminous United States. Comparing modeled spatial distributions of SOC by CLM5 to observations yielded increasing predictive accuracy from default CLM5 settings (R 2 = 0.32) to randomly sampled (0.36), one-batch estimated (0.43), and deep learning optimized (0.62) parameter values. While CLM5 with parameter values derived from random-sampling and one-batch methods substantially corrected the overestimated SOC storage by that with default model parameters, there were still considerable geographical biases. CLM5 with the spatially heterogeneous parameter values optimized from the neural networking method had the least estimation error and less geographical biases across the conterminous United States. Our study indicated that deep learning in combination with data assimilation can significantly improve the representation of SOC by complex land biogeochemical models.

Controls of soil organic matter on soil thermal dynamics in the northern high latitudes.

Permafrost warming and potential soil carbon (SOC) release after thawing may amplify climate change, yet model estimates of present-day and future permafrost extent vary widely, partly due to uncertainties in simulated soil temperature. Here, we derive thermal diffusivity, a key parameter in the soil thermal regime, from depth-specific measurements of monthly soil temperature at about 200 sites in the high latitude regions. We find that, among the tested soil properties including SOC, soil texture, bulk density, and soil moisture, SOC is the dominant factor controlling the variability of diffusivity among sites. Analysis of the CMIP5 model outputs reveals that the parameterization of thermal diffusivity drives the differences in simulated present-day permafrost extent among these models. The strong SOC-thermics coupling is crucial for projecting future permafrost dynamics, since the response of soil temperature and permafrost area to a rising air temperature would be impacted by potential changes in SOC.

Rivers across the Siberian Arctic unearth the patterns of carbon release from thawing permafrost.

Climate warming is expected to mobilize northern permafrost and peat organic carbon (PP-C), yet magnitudes and system specifics of even current releases are poorly constrained. While part of the PP-C will degrade at point of thaw to CO2 and CH4 to directly amplify global warming, another part will enter the fluvial network, potentially providing a window to observe large-scale PP-C remobilization patterns. Here, we employ a decade-long, high-temporal resolution record of 14C in dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC, respectively) to deconvolute PP-C release in the large drainage basins of rivers across Siberia: Ob, Yenisey, Lena, and Kolyma. The 14C-constrained estimate of export specifically from PP-C corresponds to only 17 ± 8% of total fluvial organic carbon and serves as a benchmark for monitoring changes to fluvial PP-C remobilization in a warming Arctic. Whereas DOC was dominated by recent organic carbon and poorly traced PP-C (12 ± 8%), POC carried a much stronger signature of PP-C (63 ± 10%) and represents the best window to detect spatial and temporal dynamics of PP-C release. Distinct seasonal patterns suggest that while DOC primarily stems from gradual leaching of surface soils, POC reflects abrupt collapse of deeper deposits. Higher dissolved PP-C export by Ob and Yenisey aligns with discontinuous permafrost that facilitates leaching, whereas higher particulate PP-C export by Lena and Kolyma likely echoes the thermokarst-induced collapse of Pleistocene deposits. Quantitative 14C-based fingerprinting of fluvial organic carbon thus provides an opportunity to elucidate large-scale dynamics of PP-C remobilization in response to Arctic warming.

Approaching the potential of model-data comparisons of global land carbon storage.

Carbon storage dynamics in vegetation and soil are determined by the balance of carbon influx and turnover. Estimates of these opposing fluxes differ markedly among different empirical datasets and models leading to uncertainty and divergent trends. To trace the origin of such discrepancies through time and across major biomes and climatic regions, we used a model-data fusion framework. The framework emulates carbon cycling and its component processes in a global dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, and preserves the model-simulated pools and fluxes in space and time. Thus, it allows us to replace simulated carbon influx and turnover with estimates derived from empirical data, bringing together the strength of the model in representing processes, with the richness of observational data informing the estimations. The resulting vegetation and soil carbon storage and global land carbon fluxes were compared to independent empirical datasets. Results show model-data agreement comparable to, or even better than, the agreement between independent empirical datasets. This suggests that only marginal improvement in land carbon cycle simulations can be gained from comparisons of models with current-generation datasets on vegetation and soil carbon. Consequently, we recommend that model skill should be assessed relative to reference data uncertainty in future model evaluation studies.

A plant-microbe interaction framework explaining nutrient effects on primary production.

In most terrestrial ecosystems, plant growth is limited by nitrogen and phosphorus. Adding either nutrient to soil usually affects primary production, but their effects can be positive or negative. Here we provide a general stoichiometric framework for interpreting these contrasting effects. First, we identify nitrogen and phosphorus limitations on plants and soil microorganisms using their respective nitrogen to phosphorus critical ratios. Second, we use these ratios to show how soil microorganisms mediate the response of primary production to limiting and non-limiting nutrient addition along a wide gradient of soil nutrient availability. Using a meta-analysis of 51 factorial nitrogen-phosphorus fertilization experiments conducted across multiple ecosystems, we demonstrate that the response of primary production to nitrogen and phosphorus additions is accurately predicted by our stoichiometric framework. The only pattern that could not be predicted by our original framework suggests that nitrogen has not only a structural function in growing organisms, but also a key role in promoting plant and microbial nutrient acquisition. We conclude that this stoichiometric framework offers the most parsimonious way to interpret contrasting and, until now, unresolved responses of primary production to nutrient addition in terrestrial ecosystems.