Programme theories to describe how different general practitioner service models work in different contexts in or alongside emergency departments (GP-ED): realist evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Addressing increasing patient demand and improving ED patient flow is a key ambition for NHS England. Delivering general practitioner (GP) services in or alongside EDs (GP-ED) was advocated in 2017 for this reason, supported by £100 million (US$130 million) of capital funding. Current evidence shows no overall improvement in addressing demand and reducing waiting times, but considerable variation in how different service models operate, subject to local context. METHODS: We conducted mixed-methods analysis using inductive and deductive approaches for qualitative (observations, interviews) and quantitative data (time series analyses of attendances, reattendances, hospital admissions, length of stay) based on previous research using a purposive sample of 13 GP-ED service models (3 inside-integrated, 4 inside-parallel service, 3 outside-onsite and 3 with no GPs) in England and Wales. We used realist methodology to understand the relationship between contexts, mechanisms and outcomes to develop programme theories about how and why different GP-ED service models work. RESULTS: GP-ED service models are complex, with variation in scope and scale of the service, influenced by individual, departmental and external factors. Quantitative data were of variable quality: overall, no reduction in attendances and waiting times, a mixed picture for hospital admissions and length of hospital stay. Our programme theories describe how the GP-ED service models operate: inside the ED, integrated with patient flow and general ED demand, with a wider GP role than usual primary care; outside the ED, addressing primary care demand with an experienced streaming nurse facilitating the 'right patients' are streamed to the GP; or within the ED as a parallel service with most variability in the level of integration and GP role. CONCLUSION: GP-ED services are complex . Our programme theories inform recommendations on how services could be modified in particular contexts to address local demand, or whether alternative healthcare services should be considered.

Describing the indirect impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation using syndromic surveillance systems.

BACKGROUND: Since the end of January 2020, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has been responsible for a global health crisis. In England a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been introduced throughout the pandemic, including guidelines on healthcare attendance (for example, promoting remote consultations), increased handwashing and social distancing. These interventions are likely to have impacted the incidence of non-COVID-19 conditions as well as healthcare seeking behaviour. Syndromic Surveillance Systems offer the ability to monitor trends in healthcare usage over time. METHODS: This study describes the indirect impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation using a range of syndromic indicators including eye conditions, mumps, fractures, herpes zoster and cardiac conditions. Data from the syndromic surveillance systems monitored by Public Health England were used to describe the number of contacts with NHS 111, general practitioner (GP) In Hours (GPIH) and Out-of-Hours (GPOOH), Ambulance and Emergency Department (ED) services over comparable periods before and during the pandemic. RESULTS: The peak pandemic period in 2020 (weeks 13-20), compared to the same period in 2019, displayed on average a 12% increase in NHS 111 calls, an 11% decrease in GPOOH consultations, and a 49% decrease in ED attendances. In the GP In Hours system, conjunctivitis consultations decreased by 64% and mumps consultations by 31%. There was a 49% reduction in attendance at EDs for fractures, and there was no longer any weekend increase in ED fracture attendances, with similar attendance patterns observed across each day of the week. There was a decrease in the number of ED attendances with diagnoses of myocardial ischaemia. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic drastically impacted healthcare utilisation for non-COVID-19 conditions, due to a combination of a probable decrease in incidence of certain conditions and changes in healthcare seeking behaviour. Syndromic surveillance has a valuable role in describing and understanding these trends.

Usability of electronic health record systems in UK EDs.

BACKGROUND: The large volume of patients, rapid staff turnover and high work pressure mean that the usability of all systems within the ED is important. The transition to electronic health records (EHRs) has brought many benefits to emergency care but imposes a significant burden on staff to enter data. Poor usability has a direct consequence and opportunity cost in staff time and resources that could otherwise be employed in patient care. This research measures the usability of EHR systems in UK EDs using a validated assessment tool. METHODS: This was a survey completed by members and fellows of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine conducted during summer 2019. The primary outcome was the System Usability Scale Score, which ranges from 0 (worst) to 100 (best). Scores were compared with an internationally recognised measure of acceptable usability of 68. Results were analysed by EHR system, country, healthcare organisation and physician grade. Only EHR systems with at least 20 responses were analysed. RESULTS: There were 1663 responses from a total population of 8794 (19%) representing 192 healthcare organisations (mainly UK NHS), and 25 EHR systems. Fifteen EHR systems had at least 20 responses and were included in the analysis. No EHR system achieved a median usability score that met the industry standard of acceptable usability.The median usability score was 53 (IQR 35-68). Individual EHR systems' scores ranged from 35 (IQR 26-53) to 65 (IQR 44-80). CONCLUSION: In this survey, no UK ED EHR system met the internationally validated standard of acceptable usability for information technology.

Using emergency department syndromic surveillance to investigate the impact of a national vaccination program: A retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus infection is a common cause of gastroenteritis in children worldwide, with a high mortality burden in developing countries, particularly during the first two years of life. Rotavirus vaccination was introduced into the United Kingdom childhood vaccination schedule in July 2013, with high coverage (>90%) achieved by June 2016. We used an emergency department (ED) syndromic surveillance system to assess the impact of the rotavirus vaccination programme, specifically through the demonstration of any immediate and continuing impact on ED gastroenteritis visits in England. METHODS: This retrospective, observational study used syndromic surveillance data collected from 3 EDs in the two years before (July 2011-June 2013) and 3 years post (July 2013-June 2016) introduction of rotavirus vaccination. The weekly levels of ED visits for gastroenteritis (by age group and in total) during the period before rotavirus vaccination was first described alongside the findings of laboratory surveillance of rotavirus during the same period. An interrupted time-series analysis was then performed to demonstrate the impact of rotavirus vaccination introduction on gastroenteritis ED visit levels. RESULTS: During the two years before vaccine introduction ED visits for gastroenteritis in total and for the 0-4 years age group were seen to rise and fall in line with the seasonal rotavirus increases reported by laboratory surveillance. ED gastroenteritis visits by young children were lower in the three years following introduction of rotavirus vaccination (reduced from 8% of visits to 6% of visits). These attendance levels in young children (0-4years) remained higher than in older age groups, however the previously large seasonal increases in children were greatly reduced, from peaks of 16% to 3-10% of ED visits per week. CONCLUSIONS: ED syndromic surveillance demonstrated a reduction in gastroenteritis visits following rotavirus vaccine introduction. This work establishes ED syndromic surveillance as a platform for rapid impact assessment of future vaccine programmes.

Emergency department use during COVID-19 as described by syndromic surveillance.

On 12 March 2020 the UK entered the 'delay phase' of the COVID-19 pandemic response. The Public Health England Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance System (EDSSS) carries out daily (near real-time) public health surveillance of emergency department (ED) attendances across England. This retrospective observational analysis of EDSSS data aimed to describe changes in ED attendances during March-April 2020, and identify the attendance types with the largest impact. Type 1 ED attendances were selected from 109 EDs that reported data to EDSSS for the period 1 January 2019 to 26 April 2020. The daily numbers of attendances were plotted by age group and acuity of presentation. The 2020 'COVID-19' period (12 March 2020 to 26 April 2020) attendances were compared with the equivalent 2019 'pre-COVID-19' period (14 March 2019 to 28 April 2019): in total; by hour and day of the week; age group(<1, 1-4, 15-14, 15-44, 45-64 and 65+ years); gender; acuity; and for selected syndromic indicators(acute respiratory infection, gastroenteritis, myocardial ischaemia). Daily ED attendances up to 11 March 2020 showed regular trends, highest on a Monday and reduced in children during school holidays. From 12 March 2020 ED attendances decreased across all age groups, all acuity levels, on all days and times. Across age groups the greatest percentage reductions were seen in school age children (5-14 years). By acuity, the greatest reduction occurred in the less severe presentations. Syndromic indicators showed that the greatest reductions were in non-respiratory indicators, which fell by 44-67% during 2020 COVID-19, while acute respiratory infection was reduced by -4.4% (95% CI -9.5% to 0.6%). ED attendances in England have been particularly affected during the COVID-19 pandemic due to changes in healthcare seeking behaviour. EDSSS has enabled real-time daily monitoring of these changes, which are made publicly available to facilitate action. The EDSSS provides valuable surveillance of ED attendances in England. The flexibility of EDSSS allowed rapid development of new indicators (including COVID-19-like) and reporting methods.

Potential added value of the new emergency care dataset to ED-based public health surveillance in England: an initial concept analysis.

INTRODUCTION: For the London Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2012, a sentinel ED syndromic surveillance system was established to enhance public health surveillance by obtaining data from a selected network of EDs, focusing on London. In 2017, a new national standard Emergency Care Dataset was introduced, which enabled Public Health England (PHE) to initiate the expansion of their sentinel system to national coverage. Prior to this initiative, we estimated the added value, and potential additional resource use, of an expansion of the sentinel surveillance system. METHODS: The detection capabilities of the sentinel and national systems were compared using the aberration detection methods currently used by PHE. Different scenarios were used to measure the impact on health at a local, subnational and national level, including improvements to sensitivity and timeliness, along with changes in specificity. RESULTS: The biggest added value was found to be for detecting local impacts, with an increase in sensitivity of over 80%. There were also improvements found at a national level with outbreaks being detected earlier and smaller impacts being detectable. However, the increased number of local sites will also increase the number of false alarms likely to be generated. CONCLUSION: We have quantified the added value of national ED syndromic surveillance systems, showing how they will enable detection of more localised events. Furthermore, national systems add value in enabling timelier public health interventions. Finally, we have highlighted areas where extra resource may be required to manage improvements in detection coverage.

The impact of general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments: a rapid realist review.

OBJECTIVES: Worldwide, emergency healthcare systems are under intense pressure from ever-increasing demand and evidence is urgently needed to understand how this can be safely managed. An estimated 10%-43% of emergency department patients could be treated by primary care services. In England, this has led to a policy proposal and £100 million of funding (US$130 million), for emergency departments to stream appropriate patients to a co-located primary care facility so they are 'free to care for the sickest patients'. However, the research evidence to support this initiative is weak. DESIGN: Rapid realist literature review. SETTING: Emergency departments. INCLUSION CRITERIA: Articles describing general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments. AIM: To develop context-specific theories that explain how and why general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments affect: patient flow; patient experience; patient safety and the wider healthcare system. RESULTS: Ninety-six articles contributed data to theory development sourced from earlier systematic reviews, updated database searches (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane DSR & CRCT, DARE, HTA Database, BSC, PsycINFO and SCOPUS) and citation tracking. We developed theories to explain: how staff interpret the streaming system; different roles general practitioners adopt in the emergency department setting (traditional, extended, gatekeeper or emergency clinician) and how these factors influence patient (experience and safety) and organisational (demand and cost-effectiveness) outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple factors influence the effectiveness of emergency department streaming to general practitioners; caution is needed in embedding the policy until further research and evaluation are available. Service models that encourage the traditional general practitioner approach may have shorter process times for non-urgent patients; however, there is little evidence that this frees up emergency department staff to care for the sickest patients. Distinct primary care services offering increased patient choice may result in provider-induced demand. Economic evaluation and safety requires further research. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42017069741.

Results on sports-related injuries in children from NHS emergency care dataset Oxfordshire pilot: an ecological study.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse and report on sports-related injuries using enhanced injury data collected by the testbed for the NHS emergency care injury data set and admissions data collected from inpatients. DESIGN: Ecological study design. SETTING: Two Oxfordshire NHS England hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Emergency department attendees and inpatients aged 0-19 years with sports injuries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Data were analysed from 1 January 2012 to 30 March 2014 by age, gender sport, injury location, injury mechanism and diagnosis including concussion/post-concussion, bone fractures and ligament damage. Admissions data were analysed from 1 January 2012 to 24 January 2015. RESULTS: Children and adolescents aged 0-19 years accounted for almost half (47.4%) of sports injury-related emergency department attendances and almost one-quarter (23.5%) of sports injury-related admissions for all ages. The highest rates of attendance occurred at 14 years for boys (68.22 per 1000 person-years) and 12 years for girls (33.72 per 1000 person-years). For male 0-19-year-olds the three main sports were (in order) football (soccer), rugby union and rugby league and for females, trampoline, netball and horse-riding. The largest gender differences were in netball where injuries were predominantly in females and in wheeled motorsports where injuries were predominantly in males. Almost one-quarter of emergency department sports-related injuries recorded were fractures, the highest percentage to the upper limbs. CONCLUSIONS: Public health departments in local authorities and schools should consider target sports injury prevention at children in the first four years of secondary school. For younger age groups, trampolines in the home warrant improved safety. Rugby and horse-riding should also be a focus for interventions.

The influence of a major sporting event upon emergency department attendances; A retrospective cross-national European study.

Major sporting events may influence attendance levels at hospital emergency departments (ED). Previous research has focussed on the impact of single games, or wins/losses for specific teams/countries, limiting wider generalisations. Here we explore the impact of the Euro 2016 football championships on ED attendances across four participating nations (England, France, Northern Ireland, Wales), using a single methodology. Match days were found to have no significant impact upon daily ED attendances levels. Focussing upon hourly attendances, ED attendances across all countries in the four hour pre-match period were statistically significantly lower than would be expected (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-0.99) and further reduced during matches (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.97). In the 4 hour post-match period there was no significant increase in attendances (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.04). However, these impacts were highly variable between individual matches: for example in the 4 hour period following the final, involving France, the number of ED attendances in France increased significantly (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.13-1.42). Overall our results indicate relatively small impacts of major sporting events upon ED attendances. The heterogeneity observed makes it difficult for health providers to predict how major sporting events may affect ED attendances but supports the future development of compatible systems in different countries to support cross-border public health surveillance.

Retrospective observational study of emergency department syndromic surveillance data during air pollution episodes across London and Paris in 2014.

INTRODUCTION: Poor air quality (AQ) is a global public health issue and AQ events can span across countries. Using emergency department (ED) syndromic surveillance from England and France, we describe changes in human health indicators during periods of particularly poor AQ in London and Paris during 2014. METHODS: Using daily AQ data for 2014, we identified three periods of poor AQ affecting both London and Paris. Anonymised near real-time ED attendance syndromic surveillance data from EDs across England and France were used to monitor the health impact of poor AQ.Using the routine English syndromic surveillance detection methods, increases in selected ED syndromic indicators (asthma, difficulty breathing and myocardial ischaemia), in total and by age, were identified and compared with periods of poor AQ in each city. Retrospective Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney tests were used to identify significant increases in ED attendance data on days with (and up to 3 days following) poor AQ. RESULTS: Almost 1.5 million ED attendances were recorded during the study period (27 February 2014 to 1 October 2014). Significant increases in ED attendances for asthma were identified around periods of poor AQ in both cities, especially in children (aged 0-14 years). Some variation was seen in Paris with a rapid increase during the first AQ period in asthma attendances among children (aged 0-14 years), whereas during the second period the increase was greater in adults. DISCUSSION: This work demonstrates the public health value of syndromic surveillance during air pollution incidents. There is potential for further cross-border harmonisation to provide Europe-wide early alerting to health impacts and improve future public health messaging to healthcare services to provide warning of increases in demand.

Retrospective Observational Study of Atypical Winter Respiratory Illness Season Using Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance, England, 2014-15.

During winter 2014-15, England experienced severe strains on acute health services. We investigated whether syndromic surveillance could contribute to understanding of the unusually high level of healthcare needs. We compared trends for several respiratory syndromic indicators from that winter to historical baselines. Cumulative and mean incidence rates were compared by winter and age group. All-age influenza-like illness was at expected levels; however, severe asthma and pneumonia levels were above those expected. Across several respiratory indicators, cumulative incidence rates during 2014-15 were similar to those of previous years, but higher for older persons; we saw increased rates of acute respiratory disease, including influenza like illness, severe asthma, and pneumonia, in the 65-74- and >75-year age groups. Age group-specific statistical algorithms may provide insights into the burden on health services and improve early warning in future winters.

Unintentional injury in England: an analysis of the emergency care data set pilot in Oxfordshire from 2012 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: A pilot injury data collection exercise at the emergency departments (EDs) of Oxford University Hospitals National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust (OUH) ran from 2012 to 2014 to inform the current development of the new NHS England emergency care data set. METHODS: Data collected at the EDs of OUH 1 January 2012 to 30 March 2014 analysed for Oxford City and Cherwell District Council areas. Data completeness and quality checked against Hospital Episode Statistic (HES) returns. RESULTS: Of the 63 877 injury attendances recorded at the 2 sites, 26 536 were unintentional with a home postcode within Oxford City or Cherwell District Council areas. The most frequent location, mechanism, activity and diagnosis were home (39.1% of all unintentional injuries (UIs)), low-level falls (47.1%), leisure (31.1%) and 'injuries to unspecified part of trunk, limb or body region' (20.5%), respectively. The most deprived quintile of the population (Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 1) had the highest European Age Standardised Rate (EASR) for all UIs and IMD 5 had the lowest, 54.4 (95% CI 52.3 to 56.5) and 32.2 (31.4 to 33.0) per 1000 person-years, respectively. There was a significant association between increasing levels of deprivation and an increasing incidence rate ratio (IRR) for all UIs, for those in the home, for low-level fall UIs and for non-sport leisure UIs with a particularly sharp increase in the IRR for IMD 1 compared with IMD 5. Sport-related injuries were inversely related to deprivation apart from football. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot has demonstrated both the feasibility and importance of prioritising the collection of a national injury data set.

Establishing an emergency department syndromic surveillance system to support the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

BACKGROUND: The London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games is a mass gathering event that will present a major public health challenge. The Health Protection Agency, in collaboration with the College of Emergency Medicine, has established the Emergency Department Sentinel Syndromic Surveillance System (EDSSS) to support the public health surveillance requirements of the Games. METHODS: This feasibility study assesses the usefulness of EDSSS in monitoring indicators of disease in the community. Daily counts of anonymised attendance data from six emergency departments across England were analysed by patient demographics (age, gender, partial postcode), triage coding and diagnosis codes. Generic and specific syndromic indicators were developed using aggregations of diagnosis codes recorded during each attendance. RESULTS: Over 339,000 attendances were recorded (26 July 2010 to 25 July 2011). The highest attendances recorded on weekdays between 10:00 and 11:00 and on weekends between 12:00 and 13:00. The mean daily attendance per emergency department was 257 (range 38-435). Syndromic indicators were developed including: respiratory, gastrointestinal, cardiac, acute respiratory infection, gastroenteritis and myocardial ischaemia. Respiratory and acute respiratory infection indicators peaked during December 2010, concomitant with national influenza activity, as monitored through other influenza surveillance systems. CONCLUSIONS: The EDSSS has been established to provide an enhanced surveillance system for the London 2012 Olympics. Further validation of the data will be required; however, the results from this initial descriptive study demonstrate the potential for identifying unusual and/or severe outbreaks of infectious disease, or other incidents with public health impact, within the community.

Advanced Cardiac Resuscitation Evaluation (ACRE): a randomised single-blind controlled trial of peer-led vs. expert-led advanced resuscitation training.

BACKGROUND: Advanced resuscitation skills training is an important and enjoyable part of medical training, but requires small group instruction to ensure active participation of all students. Increases in student numbers have made this increasingly difficult to achieve. METHODS: A single-blind randomised controlled trial of peer-led vs. expert-led resuscitation training was performed using a group of sixth-year medical students as peer instructors. The expert instructors were a senior and a middle grade doctor, and a nurse who is an Advanced Life Support (ALS) Instructor.A power calculation showed that the trial would have a greater than 90% chance of rejecting the null hypothesis (that expert-led groups performed 20% better than peer-led groups) if that were the true situation. Secondary outcome measures were the proportion of High Pass grades in each groups and safety incidents.The peer instructors designed and delivered their own course material. To ensure safety, the peer-led groups used modified defibrillators that could deliver only low-energy shocks.Blinded assessment was conducted using an Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE). The checklist items were based on International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation (ILCOR) guidelines using Ebel standard-setting methods that emphasised patient and staff safety and clinical effectiveness.The results were analysed using Exact methods, chi-squared and t-test. RESULTS: A total of 132 students were randomised: 58 into the expert-led group, 74 into the peer-led group. 57/58 (98%) of students from the expert-led group achieved a Pass compared to 72/74 (97%) from the peer-led group: Exact statistics confirmed that it was very unlikely (p = 0.0001) that the expert-led group was 20% better than the peer-led group.There were no safety incidents, and High Pass grades were achieved by 64 (49%) of students: 33/58 (57%) from the expert-led group, 31/74 (42%) from the peer-led group. Exact statistics showed that the difference of 15% meant that it was possible that the expert-led teaching was 20% better at generating students with High Passes. CONCLUSIONS: The key elements of advanced cardiac resuscitation can be safely and effectively taught to medical students in small groups by peer-instructors who have undergone basic medical education training.

Reducing unintended pregnancy in young, single active duty women in an overseas environment.

Unintended pregnancies in the United States negatively impact families, communities, and society as a whole. In the military, the ramifications can encroach upon mission accomplishment. In operational and overseas environments, the consequences are amplified. U.S. Naval Hospital, Sigonella, Italy became involved in a multidisciplinary effort (Choices) to reduce unplanned pregnancies. A retrospective analysis of 173 unmarried active duty women (< 27 years old) revealed that those who did not attend Choices were three times more likely to have an unplanned pregnancy. A bivariate correlation was used to test the relationship. The correlations between attendance at Choices and unplanned pregnancies was, r = -0.327, p = 0.000. A chi2 test revealed the difference in the frequency of unplanned pregnancies between those who attended Choices and those who did not with chi2 (1) = 17.86, p < 0.001 was systematic and real. This multidisciplinary approach shows promise in reducing unplanned pregnancies, thus ensuring readiness and mission accomplishment.