Multi Criteria Decision Making to evaluate control strategies of contagious animal diseases.

The decision on which strategy to use in the control of contagious animal diseases involves complex trade-offs between multiple objectives. This paper describes a Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) application to illustrate its potential support to policy makers in choosing the control strategy that best meets all of the conflicting interests. The presented application focused on the evaluation of alternative strategies to control Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemics within the European Union (EU) according to the preferences of the European Chief Veterinary Officers (CVO). The performed analysis was centred on the three high-level objectives of epidemiology, economics and social ethics. The appraised control alternatives consisted of the EU compulsory control strategy, a pre-emptive slaughter strategy, a protective vaccination strategy and a suppressive vaccination strategy. Using averaged preference weights of the elicited CVOs, the preference ranking of the control alternatives was determined for six EU regions. The obtained results emphasized the need for EU region-specific control. Individual CVOs differed in their views on the relative importance of the various (sub)criteria by which the performance of the alternatives were judged. Nevertheless, the individual rankings of the control alternatives within a region appeared surprisingly similar. Based on the results of the described application it was concluded that the structuring feature of the MCDM technique provides a suitable tool in assisting the complex decision making process of controlling contagious animal diseases.

Preferences of cost factors for mastitis management among Dutch dairy farmers using adaptive conjoint analysis.

Although many control practices to improve the mastitis situation on a farm and to reduce the economic losses of mastitis are available, the adoption rate and level of compliance of these measures are generally low. Implementing new measures involves costs, which can be divided into costs for the milking parlour and other issues. These costs were subdivided into long term investments, short term investments, labour, and change of routines. In traditional cost-benefit analyses all costs belonging to the different factors are set on a comparable monetary value. Although in an economic way this is correct, farmers may value some costs in a different way because of certain preferences, influencing the adoption rate of the mastitis reducing measures. The objectives of this study were to explore differences between preferences of cost factors according to Dutch dairy farmers, and to distinguish different groups of farmers accordingly. 136 farmers were questioned by adaptive conjoint analysis about their individual preferences. A large difference between these preferences was found. Taking individual preferences together, overall, long term investments in issues other than milking parlour were preferred most and changing routines in issues other than milking parlour were preferred least. The results of this study show that, given the large variation in the valuations, to improve the adoption rate of management measures it is important to take the preference of cost factors into account in advice given.

Field study on broiler eggs hatchability.

The aim of this research was to explore factors that are related with hatchability in the field. Data from 3 Dutch hatcheries for the years 2004, 2005, and 2006 were analyzed using a random regression model with the method of restricted maximum likelihood. In total, 24,234 batches of 724,750,444 eggs, originating from 511 breeder flocks, were included. Annually, 241,583,481 eggs were set on average, which is 37% of the total annual eggs set in the Netherlands. A significant difference in hatchability among eggs from different breeder flocks was found. Hatchability was significantly related with flock age, egg storage length, strain, feed company, season, year, as well as hatchery (P < 0.001). There was also significant interaction between flock age and age at first delivery, egg storage length at hatchery, strain, feed company, and season. Other 3-way interaction terms were also significant. The variation in hatchability was larger among the breeder farms than within breeder farms. The average estimated difference in hatchability among the hatcheries was 8%. The average estimated hatchability at 25 wk of age was 66%; it increased to 86% between 31 and 36 wk and decreased to 50% at 65 wk of age. On average, an extra day of storage until d 7 reduced hatchability by 0.2% and from d 7 to 14 by 0.5%. Eggs from older flocks were less sensitive to prolonged storage, whereas they were more sensitive to season. Hatchability was greater during late summer than during spring. The average estimated differences in hatchability among strains and feed companies of the breeder farms were 8 and 2%, respectively. Based on the relations found, optimization of hatchery results depends not only on good management at the hatchery but also on the hatching egg quality and therefore on the breeder farm management. It can be concluded that production data that are collected by the hatcheries can be used to adjust the management decisions at hatcheries as well as breeder farms.

The influence of cow factors on the incidence of clinical mastitis in dairy cows.

Many cow-specific risk factors for clinical mastitis (CM) are known. Other studies have analyzed these risk factors separately or only analyzed a limited number of risk factors simultaneously. The goal of this study was to determine the influence of cow factors on the incidence rate of CM (IRCM) with all cow factors in one multivariate model. Also, using a similar approach, the probability of whether a CM case is caused by gram-positive or gram-negative pathogens was calculated. Data were used from 274 Dutch dairy herds that recorded CM over an 18-mo period. The final dataset contained information on 28,137 lactations of 22,860 cows of different parities. In total 5,363 CM cases were recorded, but only 2,525 CM cases could be classified as gram-positive or gram-negative. The cow factors parity, lactation stage, season of the year, information on SCC from monthly test-day records, and CM history were included in the logistic regression analysis. Separate analyses were performed for heifers and multiparous cows in both the first month of lactation and from the second month of lactation onward. For investigating whether CM was caused by gram-positive or gram-negative pathogens, quarter position was included in the logistic regression analysis as well. The IRCM differed considerably among cows, ranging between 0.0002 and 0.0074 per cow-day at risk for specific cows depending on cow factors. In particular, previous CM cases, SCC in the previous month, and mean SCC in the previous lactation increased the IRCM in the current month of lactation. Results indicate that it is difficult to distinguish between gram-positive and gram-negative CM cases based on cow factors alone.

Towards flexible decision support in the control of animal epidemics.

Decision-making in the control of animal epidemics is a dynamic and flexible process. Facing uncertainties about the consequences of control options, flexible decision-making can avoid unnecessary control costs through learning and adjusting. While recognising the importance and complexity of decision-making, research has paid little attention to flexibility in deciding whether and when to use certain control options. The implicit assumption that control options are taken either immediately or never may lead to significant bias in selecting control strategies. This paper systematically analyses the elements in the decision-making process of animal epidemic control to illustrate the importance of flexibility. Also discussed are various ways of integrating flexibility into research on decision-making in animal epidemic control.

Cost-effectiveness of measures to prevent classical swine fever introduction into The Netherlands.

Recent history has demonstrated that classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics can incur high economic losses, especially for exporting countries that have densely populated pig areas and apply a strategy of non-vaccination, such as The Netherlands. Introduction of CSF virus (CSFV) remains a continuing threat to the pig production sector in The Netherlands. Reducing the annual probability of CSFV introduction (P(CSFV)) by preventive measures is therefore of utmost importance. The choice of preventive measures depends not only on the achieved reduction of the annual P(CSFV), but also on the expenditures required for implementing these measures. The objective of this study was to explore the cost-effectiveness of tactical measures aimed at the prevention of CSFV introduction into The Netherlands. For this purpose for each measure (i) model calculations were performed with a scenario tree model for CSFV introduction and (ii) its annual cost was estimated. The cost-effectiveness was then determined as the reduction of the annual P(CSFV) achieved by each preventive measure (DeltaP) divided by the annual cost of implementing that measure (DeltaC). The measures analysed reduce the P(CSFV) caused by import or export of pigs. Results showed that separation of national and international transport of pigs is the most cost-effective measure, especially when risk aversion is assumed. Although testing piglets and breeding pigs by a quick and reliable PCR also had a high cost-effectiveness ratio, this measure is not attractive due to the high cost per pig imported. Besides, implementing such a measure is not allowed under current EU law, as it is trade restrictive.

Stochastic efficiency analysis of bovine tuberculosis-surveillance programs in the Netherlands.

We constructed a stochastic bio-economic model to determine the optimal cost-efficient surveillance program for bovine tuberculosis. The surveillance programs differed in combinations of one or more detection methods and/or sampling frequency. Stochastic input variables in the epidemiological module described the dynamics of infection and the probability of detection. By means of an efficiency frontier, the trade-off between the expected cost and the epidemiological risk parameter relating to the outbreak size was evaluated. The surveillance scheme based on visual inspection of lesions on carcasses at slaughter was optimal given the current prevalence of the disease in the Netherlands if the objective was to minimise the expected costs. However, the efficient set also included two other schemes: slaughterhouse inspection in combination with GAMMA-interferon testing of blood samples and slaughterhouse inspection in combination with two-stage tuberculin testing. The choice ultimately will depend on the risk attitude of the decision-maker; a more-stringent surveillance scheme will be enforced if the expected outbreak size is to be constrained. In future scenarios, ELISA testing of bulk-tank milk in combination with the current slaughterhouse inspection procedure would outperform the surveillance scheme of solely slaughterhouse inspection if ELISA testing of bulk-tank milk becomes feasible.

Improving food safety within the dairy chain: an application of conjoint analysis.

This study determined the relative importance of attributes of food safety improvement in the production chain of fluid pasteurized milk. The chain was divided into 4 blocks: "feed" (compound feed production and its transport), "farm" (dairy farm), "dairy processing" (transport and processing of raw milk, delivery of pasteurized milk), and "consumer" (retailer/catering establishment and pasteurized milk consumption). The concept of food safety improvement focused on 2 main groups of hazards: chemical (antibiotics and dioxin) and microbiological (Salmonella, Escherichia coli, Mycobacterium paratuberculosis, and Staphylococcus aureus). Adaptive conjoint analysis was used to investigate food safety experts' perceptions of the attributes' importance. Preference data from individual experts (n = 24) on 101 attributes along the chain were collected in a computer-interactive mode. Experts perceived the attributes from the "feed" and "farm" blocks as being more vital for controlling the chemical hazards; whereas the attributes from the "farm" and "dairy processing" were considered more vital for controlling the microbiological hazards. For the chemical hazards, "identification of treated cows" and "quality assurance system of compound feed manufacturers" were considered the most important attributes. For the microbiological hazards, these were "manure supply source" and "action in salmonellosis and M. paratuberculosis cases". The rather high importance of attributes relating to quality assurance and traceability systems of the chain participants indicates that participants look for food safety assurance from the preceding participants. This information has substantial decision-making implications for private businesses along the chain and for the government regarding the food safety improvement of fluid pasteurized milk.

Sick leave analysis among self-employed Dutch farmers.

BACKGROUND: Agriculture is one of the most physically demanding and risky industries. Aim The objective of this study was to provide baseline data on the diagnoses, occurrence and duration of sick leave of self-employed Dutch farmers. METHOD: A database of 22 807 sick leave claims of 12 627 farmers during the period 1994-2001 was analysed. RESULTS: Most of the claims (61%) were for musculo-skeletal injuries and disorders. The mean cumulative incidence (CI) was 10.2 claims per year per 100 farmers and did not change over time. However, it varied per agricultural sector and per age category, being lowest in arable farming and in the youngest age category and highest in mushroom farming and in the oldest age category. The duration of sick leave depended both on diagnosis and age category: the slowest recovery from sick leave was seen in farmers with respiratory diseases and farmers in the oldest age category. CONCLUSION: The results make it easier to identify groups of farmers to be targeted to prevent sick leave. To reduce the occurrence of sick leave in agriculture, the strategy should be to prevent musculo-skeletal injuries and disorders. Furthermore, a sector-specific approach is recommended, so that preventive actions can be focused on working conditions-specifically on workload and work safety. Efforts to shorten the duration of sick leave will also be valuable to obtain a reduction of sick leave.

The risk of the introduction of classical swine fever virus at regional level in the European Union: a conceptual framework.

Recent classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics in the European Union (EU) have clearly shown that preventing the introduction of CSF virus (CSFV) deserves high priority. Insight into all the factors contributing to the risk of CSFV introduction is a prerequisite for deciding which preventive actions are cost-effective. The relations between virus introduction and spread, prevention and control, and economic losses have been described using the conceptual framework presented in this paper. A pathway diagram provides insight into all the pathways contributing to the likelihood of CSFV introduction (LVI_CSF) into regions of the EU. A qualitative assessment based on this pathway diagram shows that regions with high pig densities generally have a higher LVI_CSF, although this cannot be attributed to pig density only. The pathway diagram was also used to qualitatively assess the reduction in LVI_CSF achieved by restructuring the pig production sector. Especially integrated chains of industrialised pig farming reduce the LVI_CSF considerably, but are also difficult and costly to implement. Quantitative assessment of the LVI_CSF on the basis of the pathway diagram is needed to support the results of the qualitative assessments described.

A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic.

A decision-tree was developed to support decision making on control measures during the first days after the declaration of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The objective of the tree was to minimise direct costs and export losses of FMD epidemics under several scenarios based on livestock and herd density in the outbreak region, the possibility of airborne spread, and the time between first infection and first detection. The starting point of the tree was an epidemiological model based on a deterministic susceptible-infectious-recovered approach. The effect of four control strategies on FMD dynamics was modelled. In addition to the standard control strategy of stamping out and culling of high-risk contact herds, strategies involving ring culling within 1 km of an infected herd, ring-vaccination within 1 km of an infected herd, and ring-vaccination within 3 km of an infected herd were assessed. An economic model converted outbreak and control effects of farming and processing operations into estimates of direct costs and export losses. Ring-vaccination is the economically optimal control strategy for densely populated livestock areas whereas ring culling is the economically optimal control strategy for sparsely populated livestock areas.

Stochastic simulation of catastrophic hail and windstorm indemnities in the Dutch greenhouse sector.

A risk analysis was performed to examine the effect of changes in the Dutch greenhouse sector on the probability of occurrence and magnitude of indemnities induced by catastrophic natural hazards. Analyzed historical indemnities, which included direct and consequential losses resulting from severe hail and windstorms, were used as input in a stochastic simulation model. Applications of the stochastic simulation model were illustrated under alternative risk conditions. A comparison was made between the current structure of greenhouse production and the expected structure in the next decade that differs with respect to the spatial distribution and average size.

An economic model to calculate farm-specific losses due to bovine respiratory disease in dairy heifers.

This paper describes a personal-computer-based model estimating the economic losses associated with clinical bovine respiratory disease in replacement heifers raised on individual dairy farms. The model is based on the partial-budgeting technique, and calculates the losses for two types of the disease separately: calf pneumonia and a seasonal outbreak. Model input includes farm-specific data such as the incidence of bovine respiratory disease, prices, and effects of the disease on the heifers' productivity. The input database was linked directly with the economic model. For all input parameters, default values used are available to the user and can be modified easily. Losses considered by the model include treatment expenditures and costs associated with increased mortality, increased premature culling, reduced growth, reduced fertility and reduced milk production in first lactation. Uncertainty is taken into account for parameters related to disease incidence, mortality and culling.Basic calculations for a typical Dutch dairy farm with 60% of the heifers (<3 months) affected, indicated total annual losses due to pneumonia average 31.2 per heifer present on the farm (range 18.4-57.1). The estimated losses for one seasonal outbreak with heifers up to 15-months old affected were 27.0 per heifer present (range 17.2-43.1). For both BRD types, the model's outcome was most sensitive to the number of heifers affected. Most of the parameters that had a major impact on the total losses were related to treatment or to the effects on the heifers' productivity. The model is user-friendly and flexible, and can be used as an interactive tool by farmers and veterinarians in the (economic) decision-making process regarding on-farm prevention and control of bovine respiratory disease.

Improving nutrient efficiency as a strategy to reduce nutrient surpluses on dairy farms.

Dutch nutrient policy aims at reducing leaching of agricultural nutrients by internalizing the negative externalities associated with inefficient nutrient use. This is done by taxation of nitrogen and phosphate surpluses that exceed a hectare-based threshold of maximum-allowed surpluses. One management strategy farmers may use to reduce the nutrient surpluses on their farms is to improve the nutrient efficiency of the agricultural production process. This study employs Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to calculate nitrogen and phosphate efficiencies and an overall nutrient efficiency measure for a 3-year panel of 114 Dutch dairy farms. Subsequent analyses show the impact of both farm intensity and nutrient efficiency on the nitrogen and phosphate surpluses. It appears that farm intensity has a positive effect on efficiency, but efficiency and intensity exert opposite influences on nutrient surpluses. This is especially the case for nitrogen. The magnitude of a possible reduction of nitrogen surpluses through a strategy of efficiency improvement is therefore limited by the intensity of the farming system, unless the technology with which nutrients are used by the farming system can be further improved or input/output ratios will be altered.

Optimization of dairy heifer management decisions based on production conditions of Pennsylvania.

We used a dynamic programming model to determine optimum rearing decisions of dairy replacements. Heifers were described in the model by age, season, body weight, pregnancy state, and prepubertal growth rate. Prices and parameters were chosen to represent the dairy population of Pennsylvania. We calculated monthly costs and revenues from calf value, feed costs, veterinary costs, semen costs, carcass value, and full-grown heifer value. The model considered a stochastic variation in the onset of puberty, conception, involuntary disposal, and a seasonal variation in the prices of calves, heifers, and feed. Based on a critical prepubertal average daily gain of 0.9 kg/d and a maximum achievable postpubertal growth rate of 1.1 kg/d, the optimum practice resulted in an average age at first calving of 20.5 mo at a body weight of 563 kg. Discounted net returns equaled $107 per heifer per year. The optimum rearing practice was not sensitive to seasonal variation in prices. Nevertheless, the economic results per season of birth varied considerably; the highest income per heifer was obtained from heifers born in December ($142/yr), whereas those born in May yielded the lowest ($100/yr). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated a considerable influence of growth rate restrictions and variation in reproductive performance on both the optimal rearing practices as the expected net returns.

Dairy-heifer management in the Netherlands.

The objective of this study was to describe the Dutch rearing performance of dairy heifers by the evaluation of performance indices at weaning, breeding and calving. The second objective was to determine the extent to which dairy farmers use pre-set rearing targets and data monitoring for the evaluation of their rearing results. A questionnaire was sent to 3000 randomly chosen dairy cattle farmers to survey their heifer-rearing practices. Almost a third of the farmers (n=959) completed and returned the questionnaire. Of the farms responding, 29% realised an age at first calving of < or =24 months, 51% from 25 to 27 months, and 20% of > or =27 months. The farmers indicated that the average body weight after calving was within the range 525-550 kg. Average wither height class was 141-145 cm. Most farmers estimated the body-condition score of their heifers at calving to be 3-3.5. In 29% of the cases, weaning occurred at an age of < or =8 weeks, 35% at 9-10 weeks of age and 36% at > or =11 weeks of age. Most farmers (81%) commenced breeding at an age of > or =15 months. Intermediate evaluation of the rearing policy by means of performance goals and measurements was limited, and many of the reported performance indices on age and body weight were outside the range of the recommended target values. These results indicated that the common Dutch heifer-rearing management system could be improved considerably.

Monte Carlo simulation of virus introduction into the Netherlands.

In order to improve the understanding of the risk of introducing classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the Netherlands, a Monte Carlo simulation model was developed. The model, VIRiS (Virus Introduction Risk Simulation model) describes virus introduction into the Netherlands from outbreaks in other European countries. VIRiS is aimed at supporting decision makers involved in disease prevention. The model is based on historical and experimental data, supplemented with expert judgement, and provides the expected number, location and cause of primary outbreaks in the Netherlands. The paper gives a detailed description of the design and behaviour of VIRiS. The default outcomes of VIRiS show that in the current situation, the western and northern regions of the Netherlands are most prone to outbreaks of CSF and FMD. Most outbreaks originate from the countries neighbouring the Netherlands and the countries of southern Europe. Several alternative prevention strategies were evaluated using a combination of the VIRiS model and models describing the spread and economic consequences of outbreaks. A considerable financial window is available for measures aimed at speeding up the detection of epidemics in countries from which a Dutch outbreak may originate. Complete elimination of the risk associated with the risk factor 'returning trucks' reduces the annual losses due to FMD and CSF epidemics by approximately US$ 9 million. The approach is general and could also be applied to other diseases and countries.

Repeatability in ranking of dairy farms on technical and economic performance over years.

Repeatability of farm average 305-day milk production and gross margin per 100 kg of milk was evaluated for 39 farms. Ranking of gross margin, its underlying factors (i.e. milk price, returns from cull cows and calves, costs of concentrates, and costs of roughage purchases per 100 kg of milk), and 305-day milk production was not completely random over the four years of the study. The coefficient of concordance ranged between 0.55 and 0.82. The costs of roughage purchased had the lowest concordance over time, and 305-day milk production had the highest concordance. For each year and each farm, the difference between average gross margin and farm-specific gross margin was calculated. The standard deviations (SD) of these values was calculated for each farm, and showed differences between farms in variability in gross margin over years (the farm-year-specific SD varied between farms from 0.56 to 5.73). All the underlying factors showed a deviation over years. So, variability of gross margin can be due to changes in all underlying factors. The impact on gross margin of purchased roughage was not of major importance because its absolute impact on the gross margin is small. We concluded that milk-production data over one year is a reliable indicator for the typical farm milk production. Because gross margin fluctuates considerably over time, however it is preferred to base economic research on data from more than one year.

A model to estimate the financial consequences of classical swine fever outbreaks: principles and outcomes.

A model is presented aimed at a financial analysis of a Classical Swine Fever outbreak. Financial consequences are calculated for affected parties, including governments (EU and national), farms, and related industries in the production chain. The model can be used to calculate the losses of a real outbreak as well as of a simulated one. In this article, the model is applied to the 1997/1998 outbreak of Classical Swine Fever in the Netherlands. Results show that total financial consequences of the outbreak are US $2.3 billion. Consequential losses for farmers and related industries are US $423 million and US $596 million respectively. Budgetary consequences for governments include less than 50% of the total losses calculated by the model. The model can be adapted easily to suit other diseases and countries.

A descriptive study of visits by animal health specialists in pig farming: type, frequency, and herd-health management factors.

This research was carried out to analyse the visits specialists of the Dutch Animal Health Service made to growing and fattening pig farms. The type and frequency of the visits and identified herd-health management factors that did not meet accepted standards were investigated. In total 373 visit reports were studied. The majority of the visits (n = 306 of 373) were made to investigate the cause of health, welfare, and performance problems ('problem-solving visits'). Respiratory disorders were the main reason for requesting a specialist to assess farm conditions and management (n = 156). In the other 67 of 373 visit reports the specialists screened for herd-health management factors that did not meet standards for the prevention of disease ('screening visits'). For both types of visits, the main factors detected were abrupt changes in feeding regimens (e.g. changes in feed type, feed composition or feed supplier) (37%), inadequate measures to prevent introduction of pathogens by people and trucks (83%), and incorrect adjustment of the ventilation system (58-60%). The specialists focusing on housing-climate management, identified the majority of factors in an equal number irrespective of whether the visit was a problem-solving visit or a screening visit. This implies that even on farms that appear not to have health or performance problems, factors that relate to disease are present and may cause problems sooner or later. Although veterinary practitioners and other farm advisors assist farmers in their management to optimize herd health, the findings of the research suggest that advisors could provide additional support in situations where environmental and managerial factors play a role in pig health and performance. The knowledge of advisors about integrated herd-health management can be broadened by means of textbooks, courses, or computer programs.