Prevalence of Gastric Precursor Lesions in Countries With Differential Gastric Cancer Burden: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prevalence of precursor lesions for gastric cancer (GC) and the differential burden between countries of varying GC risk is not well-understood. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the global prevalence of precursor lesions. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of atrophic gastritis (AG), gastric intestinal metaplasia (IM), and dysplasia in regions with low, medium, and high GC incidence. Because IM is an advanced manifestation of AG, we assessed the prevalence of less advanced precursors, regardless of the presence of more advanced lesions. Prevalence was sub-stratified by Helicobacter pylori infection, symptomatology, and period (<2000, 2000-2010, and >2010). RESULTS: Among the 582 articles that underwent full-text review, 166 studies met inclusion criteria. The global prevalence estimates of AG, IM, and dysplasia were 25.4%, 16.2%, and 2.0%, respectively, on the basis of 126 studies that reported the prevalence of less advanced precursors, regardless of the presence of more advanced lesions. The prevalence of all precursor lesions was higher in high and medium compared with low GC incidence countries (P < .01). Prevalence of AG and IM was significantly higher among H pylori-infected individuals (P < .01) but not statistically different between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals (P > .17). All precursors demonstrated a secular decrease in prevalence over time. CONCLUSIONS: Gastric precursor lesions have differences in prevalence in regions with differential GC incidence and are associated with H pylori infection. Because of the substantial prevalence of precursor lesions in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, symptomatic evaluation may not be sufficient to identify individuals at risk. These estimates provide important insights for tailoring GC prevention strategies.

Environmental drivers of the rising incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer in the United States.

Incidence of early-onset (diagnosed before age 50) colorectal cancer (EOCRC) has increased alarmingly since the 1990s in the United States. This study investigated what environmental exposures may have driven this increase. We obtained EOCRC incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, and data for 11 exposures, for example, body mass index (BMI), from long-term national surveys. We aggregated these data for 30 to 49-year-olds during 1992 to 2016 by population subgroups defined by calendar period, age, race and sex, and used negative binomial regression models to identify and estimate associations of EOCRC with multiple exposures. Furthermore, we used counterfactual modeling to quantify contributions of identified risk factors to EOCRC incidence. The top models (with lowest Bayesian Information Criteria) consistently identified excess body weight, represented by overweight and obesity (BMI ≥25) or obesity alone (BMI ≥30), as the strongest risk factor. The best-performing model estimated increased EOCRC incidence due to overweight and obesity, with an incidence rate ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.20 (1.17-1.22) for white men, 1.04 (1.00-1.08) for black men, 1.17 (1.15-1.21) for white women and 1.03 (0.97-1.08) for black women. Increases in overweight and obesity prevalence contributed to an estimated 30% (standard error: 1%) for men and 28% (standard error: 2%) for women of ECORC incidence during 1992 to 2016. These findings suggest excess body weight substantially contributed to and is likely a primary driver of the rising incidence of EOCRC in the United States. Prevention of excess weight gain may help lower colorectal cancer risk early in life.

Excess morbidity and mortality associated with underuse of estrogen replacement therapy in premenopausal women who undergo surgical menopause.

BACKGROUND: Contrary to clinical guidelines, there has been a decrease over time in estrogen therapy use in premenopausal women undergoing bilateral oophorectomy for benign indications. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality associated with current patterns of estrogen therapy use in women who undergo bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy for benign indications. STUDY DESIGN: We developed 2 Bayesian sampling Markov state-transition models to estimate the excess disease incidence (incidence model) and mortality (mortality model). The starting cohort for both models were women who had undergone bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy for benign indications at the age of 45 to 49 years. The models tracked outcomes in 5-year intervals for 25 years. The incidence model estimated excess incidence of breast cancer, lung cancer, colorectal cancer, coronary heart disease, and stroke, whereas the mortality model estimated excess mortality due to breast cancer, lung cancer, coronary heart disease, and all-other-cause mortality. The models compared current rates of estrogen therapy use with optimal (100%) use and calculated the mean difference in each simulated outcome to determine excess disease incidence and death. RESULTS: By 25 years after bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy, there were an estimated 94 (95% confidence interval, -158 to -23) fewer colorectal cancer cases, 658 (95% confidence interval, 339-1025) more coronary heart disease cases, and 881 (95% confidence interval, 402-1483) more stroke cases. By 25 years after bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy, there were an estimated 189 (95% confidence interval, 59-387) more breast cancer deaths, 380 (95% confidence interval, 114-792) more coronary heart disease deaths, and 759 (95% confidence interval, 307-1527) more all-other-cause deaths. In sensitivity analyses where we defined estrogen therapy use as a duration of >2 years of use, these differences increased >2-fold. CONCLUSION: Underuse of estrogen therapy in premenopausal women who undergo oophorectomy is associated with substantial excess morbidity and mortality.

Endoscopic Surveillance of Intestinal Metaplasia of the Esophagogastric Junction: A Decision Modeling Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJAC) has been rising. Intestinal metaplasia of the esophagogastric junction (EGJIM) is a common finding in gastroesophageal reflux (irregular Z-line) and may represent an early step in the development of EGJAC in the West. Worldwide, EGJIM may represent progression along the Correa cascade triggered by Helicobacter pylori . We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance of EGJIM. METHODS: We developed a decision analytic model to compare endoscopic surveillance strategies for 50-year-old patients after diagnosis of non-dysplastic EGJIM: (i) no surveillance (standard of care), (ii) endoscopy every 3 years, (iii) endoscopy every 5 years, or (iv) 1-time endoscopy at 3 years. We modeled 4 progression scenarios to reflect uncertainty: A (0.01% annual cancer incidence), B (0.05%), C (0.12%), and D (0.22%). RESULTS: Cost-effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance depended on the progression rate of EGJIM to cancer. At the lowest progression rate (scenario A, 0.01%), no surveillance strategies were cost-effective. In moderate progression scenarios, 1-time surveillance at 3 years was cost-effective, at $30,989 and $16,526 per quality-adjusted life year for scenarios B (0.05%) and C (0.12%), respectively. For scenario D (0.22%), surveillance every 5 years was cost-effective at $77,695 per quality-adjusted life year. DISCUSSION: Endoscopic surveillance is costly and can cause harm; however, low-intensity longitudinal surveillance (every 5 years) is cost-effective in populations with higher EGJAC incidence. No surveillance or 1-time endoscopic surveillance of patients with EGJIM was cost-effective in low-incidence populations. Future studies to better understand the natural history of EGJIM, identify risk factors of progression, and inform appropriate surveillance strategies are required.

Quantifying the potential benefits of early detection for pancreatic cancer through a counterfactual simulation modeling analysis.

The benefits of cancer early detection depend on various factors, including cancer type, screening method performance, stage at diagnosis, and subsequent treatment. Although numerous studies have evaluated the effectiveness of screening interventions for identifying cancer at earlier stages, there is no quantitative analysis that studies the optimal early detection time interval that results in the greatest mortality benefit; such data could serve as a target and benchmark for cancer early detection strategies. In this study, we focus on pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), a cancer known for its lack of early symptoms. Consequently, it is most often detected at late stages when the 5-year survival rate is only 3%. We developed a PDAC population model that simulates an individual patient's age and stage at diagnosis, while replicating overall US cancer incidence and mortality rates. The model includes "cancer sojourn time," serving as a proxy for the speed of cancer progression, with shorter times indicating rapid progression and longer times indicating slower progression. In our PDAC model, our hypothesis was that earlier cancer detection, potentially through a hypothetical screening intervention in the counterfactual analysis, would yield reduced mortality as compared to a no-screening group. We found that the benefits of early detection, such as increased life-years gained, are greater when the sojourn time is shorter, reaching their maximum when identification is made 4-6 years prior to clinical diagnosis (e.g., when a symptomatic diagnosis is made). However, when early detection occurs even earlier, for example 6-10 years prior to clinical diagnosis, the benefits significantly diminish for shorter sojourn time cancers, and level off for longer sojourn time cancers. Our study clarifies the potential benefits of PDAC early detection that explicitly incorporates individual patient heterogeneity in cancer progression and identifies quantitative benchmarks for future interventions.

Approaches to developing de novo cancer population models to examine questions about cancer and race in bladder, gastric, and endometrial cancer and multiple myeloma: the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network incubator program.

BACKGROUND: We are developing 10 de novo population-level mathematical models in 4 malignancies (multiple myeloma and bladder, gastric, and uterine cancers). Each of these sites has documented disparities in outcome that are believed to be downstream effects of systemic racism. METHODS: Ten models are being independently developed as part of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network incubator program. These models simulate trends in cancer incidence, early diagnosis, treatment, and mortality for the general population and are stratified by racial subgroup. Model inputs are based on large population datasets, clinical trials, and observational studies. Some core parameters are shared, and other parameters are model specific. All models are microsimulation models that use self-reported race to stratify model inputs. They can simulate the distribution of relevant risk factors (eg, smoking, obesity) and insurance status (for multiple myeloma and uterine cancer) in US birth cohorts and population. DISCUSSION: The models aim to refine approaches in prevention, detection, and management of 4 cancers given uncertainties and constraints. They will help explore whether the observed racial disparities are explainable by inequities, assess the effects of existing and potential cancer prevention and control policies on health equity and disparities, and identify policies that balance efficiency and fairness in decreasing cancer mortality.

Cost-Effectiveness of Liquid Biopsy for Colorectal Cancer Screening in Patients Who Are Unscreened.

Importance: Despite recommendations for universal screening, adherence to colorectal cancer screening in the US is approximately 60%. Liquid biopsy tests are in development for cancer early detection, but it is unclear whether they are cost-effective for colorectal cancer screening. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of liquid biopsy for colorectal cancer screening in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this economic evaluation, a Markov model was developed to compare no screening and 5 colorectal cancer screening strategies: colonoscopy, liquid biopsy, liquid biopsy following nonadherence to colonoscopy, stool DNA, and fecal immunochemical test. Adherence to first-line screening with colonoscopy, stool DNA, or fecal immunochemical test was assumed to be 60.6%, and adherence for liquid biopsy was assumed to be 100%. For colonoscopy, stool DNA, and fecal immunochemical test, patients who did not adhere to testing were not offered other screening. In colonoscopy-liquid biopsy hybrid, liquid biopsy was second-line screening for those who deferred colonoscopy. Scenario analyses were performed to include the possibility of polyp detection for liquid biopsy. Exposures: No screening, colonoscopy, fecal immunochemical test, stool DNA, liquid biopsy, and colonoscopy-liquid biopsy hybrid screening. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model outcomes included life expectancy, total cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. A strategy was considered cost-effective if it had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio less than the US willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per life-year gained. Results: This study used a simulated cohort of patients aged 45 years with average risk of colorectal cancer. In the base case, colonoscopy was the preferred, or cost-effective, strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $28 071 per life-year gained. Colonoscopy-liquid biopsy hybrid had the greatest gain in life-years gained but had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $377 538. Colonoscopy-liquid biopsy hybrid had a greater gain in life-years if liquid biopsy could detect polyps but remained too costly. Conclusions and Relevance: In this economic evaluation of liquid biopsy for colorectal cancer screening, colonoscopy was a cost-effective strategy for colorectal cancer screening in the general population, and the inclusion of liquid biopsy as a first- or second-line screening strategy was not cost-effective at its current cost and screening performance. Liquid biopsy tests for colorectal cancer screening may become cost-effective if their cost is substantially lowered.

Risk factors for developing both primary breast and primary ovarian cancer: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Women with breast cancer have an increased risk of primary ovarian cancer (BR→OV), and women with ovarian cancer have an increased risk of primary breast cancer (OV→BR). This systematic review summarizes risk factors for developing BR→OV and OV→BR. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase until June 2022. RESULTS: We identified 23 articles meeting our inclusion criteria. Studies observed a lower risk of BR→OV for Black versus White women, alcohol consumption, radiotherapy and hormone therapy, BRCA2 versus BRCA1, and ER/PR positive versus negative breast tumors, and a higher risk with family history of breast/ovarian cancer, triple negative versus luminal breast cancer, and higher grade breast tumors. There was an increased risk of OV→BR with family history of cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Tumor characteristics, and genetic and familial factors are associated with risk of BR→OV and OV→BR. These results could aid clinicians in decision-making for breast and ovarian cancer patients, including risk-reducing strategies.

Cost-Effectiveness of Pharmacotherapy for the Treatment of Obesity in Adolescents.

Importance: Antiobesity pharmacotherapy is recommended for adolescents ages 12 years and older with obesity. Several medications have been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for adolescent use, but the most cost-effective medication remains unclear. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle counseling alone and as adjunct to liraglutide, mid-dose phentermine and topiramate (7.5 mg phentermine and 46 mg topiramate), top-dose phentermine and topiramate (15 mg phentermine and 92 mg topiramate), or semaglutide among adolescent patients with obesity. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation used a microsimulation model to project health and cost outcomes of lifestyle counseling alone and adjunct to liraglutide, mid-dose phentermine and topiramate, top-dose phentermine and topiramate, or semaglutide over 13 months, 2 years, and 5 years among a hypothetical cohort of 100 000 adolescents with obesity, defined as an initial body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) of 37. Model inputs were derived from clinical trials, published literature, and national sources. Data were analyzed from April 2022 to July 2023. Exposures: Lifestyle counseling alone and as adjunct to liraglutide, mid-dose phentermine and topiramate, top-dose phentermine and topiramate, or semaglutide. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs (2022 US dollars), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), with future costs and QALYs discounted 3.0% annually. A strategy was considered cost-effective if the ICER was less than $100 000 per QALY gained. The preferred strategy was determined as the strategy with the greatest increase in QALYs while being cost-effective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess parameter uncertainty. Results: The model simulated 100 000 adolescents at age 15 with an initial BMI of 37, of whom 58 000 (58%) were female. At 13 months and 2 years, lifestyle counseling was estimated to be the preferred strategy. At 5 years, top-dose phentermine and topiramate was projected to be the preferred strategy with an ICER of $56 876 per QALY gained vs lifestyle counseling. Semaglutide was projected to yield the most QALYs, but with an unfavorable ICER of $1.1 million per QALY gained compared with top-dose phentermine and topiramate. Model results were most sensitive to utility of weight reduction and weight loss of lifestyle counseling and top-dose phentermine and topiramate. Conclusions and Relevance: In this economic evaluation of pharmacotherapy for adolescents with obesity, top-dose phentermine and topiramate as adjunct to lifestyle counseling was estimated to be cost-effective after 5 years. Long-term clinical trials in adolescents are needed to fully evaluate the outcomes of pharmacotherapy, especially into adulthood.

Cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Colon cancer incidence is rising in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where resource limitations and cost often dictate treatment decisions. In this study, we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer treatment in South Africa (ZA) and illustrate how such analyses can inform cancer treatment recommendations in a LMIC. METHODS: We created a decision-analytic Markov model to compare lifetime costs and outcomes for patients with high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer treated with three adjuvant chemotherapy regimens in a public hospital in ZA: capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) for 3 and 6 months, and capecitabine for 6 months, compared to no adjuvant treatment. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in international dollars (I$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold equal to the 2021 ZA gross domestic product per capita (I$13,764/DALY averted). RESULTS: CAPOX for 3 months was cost-effective for both patients with high-risk stage II and patients with stage III colon cancer (ICER = I$250/DALY averted and I$1042/DALY averted, respectively), compared to no adjuvant chemotherapy. In subgroup analyses of patients by tumor stage and number of positive lymph nodes, for patients with high-risk stage II colon cancer and T4 tumors, and patients with stage III colon cancer with T4 or N2 disease. CAPOX for 6 months was cost-effective and the optimal strategy. The optimal strategy in other settings will vary by local WTP thresholds. Decision analytic tools can be used to identify cost-effective cancer treatment strategies in resource-constrained settings. CONCLUSION: Colon cancer incidence is increasing in low- and middle-income countries, including South Africa, where resource constraints can impact treatment decisions. This cost-effectiveness study evaluates three systemic adjuvant chemotherapy options, compared to surgery alone, for patients in South African public hospitals after surgical resection for high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer. Doublet adjuvant chemotherapy (capecitabine and oxaliplatin) for 3 months is the cost-effective strategy and should be recommended in South Africa.

Hysterectomy Trends and Risk of Vaginal Cuff Dehiscence: An Update by Mode of Surgery.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To analyze hysterectomy trends and vaginal cuff dehiscence (VCD) rates by mode of surgery at a tertiary care medical center and to describe characteristics of VCD cases. DESIGN: Observational retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Large academic hospital and affiliated community hospital. PATIENTS: 4722 patients who underwent hysterectomy at Columbia University Irving Medical Center between January 2010 and August 2021. INTERVENTIONS: Current Procedural Terminology and International Classification of Diseases codes identified hysterectomies and VCD cases. Hysterectomy trends and VCD rates were calculated by mode of surgery. Relative risks of VCD for each mode were compared with total abdominal hysterectomy (TAH). Clinical characteristics of VCDs were reviewed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 4059 total hysterectomies. Laparoscopic hysterectomies, including total laparoscopic hysterectomies (TLHs), laparoscopic-assisted vaginal hysterectomies, and robot-assisted TLHs (RA-TLHs), increased from 41.9% in 2010 to 65.9% in 2021 (p <.001). RA-TLH increased from 5.7% in 2010 to 40.2% in 2021. Supracervical hysterectomies followed similar trends and were excluded from VCD analysis. There were 15 VCDs (overall rate 0.37%). VCD was highest after RA-TLH (0.66%), followed by TLH (0.32%) and TAH (0.27%), with no VCDs after laparoscopic-assisted vaginal hysterectomy or total vaginal hysterectomy. Compared with TAH, the relative risk for VCD after RA-TLH was 2.44 (95% confidence interval 0.66-9.00) and after TLH was 1.18 (95% confidence interval 0.24-5.83), which were not statistically significant. The mean time to dehiscence was 39 days (range 8-145 days). The most common trigger event was coitus (41%). CONCLUSION: VCD rates were low (<1%) for all modes of hysterectomy, and rates after robotic and laparoscopic hysterectomy were much lower than previously reported. Although VCD rates trended higher after robotic and laparoscopic hysterectomy compared with abdominal hysterectomy, the difference was not significant. It is difficult to determine whether this finding represents true lack of difference vs a lack of power to detect a significant difference given the rarity of VCD.

Association of a primary care-based mobile food pantry with child body mass index: A propensity score matched cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that children in Food FARMacia-a six-month food insecurity intervention from May 2019 to January 2020-would have smaller age-adjusted, sex-specific body mass index (BMIz) gains than matched counterparts. METHODS: In this proof-of-concept study, we performed a difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis of a propensity-score matched cohort among paediatric primary care patients aged <6 years with household food insecurity. Children with anthropometric measures prior to and after intervention started were included. The main outcome was child BMIz from standardized clinical anthropometric measurements. We examined differences in child BMIz change between Food FARMacia participants and matched non-participants. RESULTS: Among 454 children with household food insecurity, 265 were included, 44 of whom were in Food FARMacia. Mean child age was 1.48 (SD 1.46) years and most reported Hispanic/Latino ethnicity (84.5%). After propensity score matching, children in Food FARMacia had smaller increases in BMIz (unadjusted DiD -0.28 [-0.52, -0.04]) compared to non-participants in the follow-up period. After adjusting for potential confounders, findings remained statistically significant [adjusted DiD, -0.31 units (95% CI: -0.54, -0.08)]. CONCLUSIONS: In this proof-of-concept cohort study of children in households with food insecurity, a paediatric primary care-based mobile food pantry program was associated with improvement in child BMIz over 6 months.

Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial of MUC1 Peptide Vaccine for Prevention of Recurrent Colorectal Adenoma.

PURPOSE: To assess whether MUC1 peptide vaccine produces an immune response and prevents subsequent colon adenoma formation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial in individuals age 40 to 70 with diagnosis of an advanced adenoma ≤1 year from randomization. Vaccine was administered at 0, 2, and 10 weeks with a booster injection at week 53. Adenoma recurrence was assessed ≥1 year from randomization. The primary endpoint was vaccine immunogenicity at 12 weeks defined by anti-MUC1 ratio ≥2.0. RESULTS: Fifty-three participants received the MUC1 vaccine and 50 placebo. Thirteen of 52 (25%) MUC1 vaccine recipients had a ≥2-fold increase in MUC1 IgG (range, 2.9-17.3) at week 12 versus 0/50 placebo recipients (one-sided Fisher exact P < 0.0001). Of 13 responders at week 12, 11 (84.6%) responded to a booster injection at week 52 with a ≥2-fold increase in MUC1 IgG measured at week 55. Recurrent adenoma was observed in 31 of 47 (66.0%) in the placebo group versus 27 of 48 (56.3%) in the MUC1 group [adjusted relative risk (aRR), 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.60-1.14; P = 0.25]. Adenoma recurrence occurred in 3/11 (27.3%) immune responders at week 12 and week 55 (aRR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.15-1.11; P = 0.08 compared with placebo). There was no difference in serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: An immune response was observed only in vaccine recipients. Adenoma recurrence was not different than placebo, but a 38% absolute reduction in adenoma recurrence compared with placebo was observed in participants who had an immune response at week 12 and with the booster injection.

Epidemiology of Gastric Malignancies 2000-2018 According to Histology: A Population-Based Analysis of Incidence and Temporal Trends.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Gastric cancer (GC) remains a leading cause of cancer and cancer-related mortality. Recent reports suggest noncardia GC is increasing in certain U.S. POPULATIONS: However, whether these trends are driven by gastric adenocarcinoma (GA) or other histologies, including neuroendocrine tumors (NETs), lymphoma, or gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), is unclear. METHODS: We analyzed the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-18 cancer registry (2000-2018) to determine age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and annual percentage change (APC) trends for histologically-confirmed GCs, stratified by anatomic location (noncardia vs cardia), age group (20-49 vs 50+ years), sex, race, and ethnicity. Joinpoint regression modeling estimated the statistical significance of trend comparisons. RESULTS: Of 74,520 individuals with noncardia GC, most (66.2%) were GA, with the next largest categories being non-mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (non-MALT) lymphomas (6.9%), GIST (6.7%), NET (6.4%), and MALT lymphoma (5.6%). Noncardia GA ASIR was significantly higher than other histologies and demonstrated the greatest differences by race and ethnicity. APCs for GA and MALT, both Helicobacter pylori-associated cancers, declined significantly over time, which was driven primarily by trends among individuals ≥50 years-old. NET and GIST APCs significantly increased irrespective of age group, with the highest APCs observed among non-Hispanic white individuals. Cardia GC was rarer than noncardia GC and comprised primarily by GA (87.9%). Cardia GC incidence fell during the study period, which was primarily driven by decline in cardia GA. CONCLUSIONS: GA was the most common histology. On the basis of our findings, the rise in noncardia GC among certain U.S. populations appears predominantly driven by NET and GIST, not GA. Further studies are needed to clarify underlying etiologies for these findings.

Structured deep embedding model to generate composite clinical indices from electronic health records for early detection of pancreatic cancer.

The high-dimensionality, complexity, and irregularity of electronic health records (EHR) data create significant challenges for both simplified and comprehensive health assessments, prohibiting an efficient extraction of actionable insights by clinicians. If we can provide human decision-makers with a simplified set of interpretable composite indices (i.e., combining information about groups of related measures into single representative values), it will facilitate effective clinical decision-making. In this study, we built a structured deep embedding model aimed at reducing the dimensionality of the input variables by grouping related measurements as determined by domain experts (e.g., clinicians). Our results suggest that composite indices representing liver function may consistently be the most important factor in the early detection of pancreatic cancer (PC). We propose our model as a basis for leveraging deep learning toward developing composite indices from EHR for predicting health outcomes, including but not limited to various cancers, with clinically meaningful interpretations.

Yield of Repeat Endoscopy for Barrett's Esophagus After Normal Index Endoscopy.

INTRODUCTION: Guidelines suggest 1-time screening with esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) for Barrett's esophagus (BE) in individuals at an increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We aimed to estimate the yield of repeat EGD performed at prolonged intervals after a normal index EGD. METHODS: We conducted a national retrospective analysis within the U S Veterans Health Administration, identifying patients with a normal index EGD between 2003 and 2009 who subsequently had a repeat EGD. We tabulated the proportion with a new diagnosis of BE, EAC, or esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJAC) and conducted manual chart review of a sample. We fitted logistic regression models for the odds of a new diagnosis of BE/EAC/EGJAC. RESULTS: We identified 71,216 individuals who had a repeat EGD between 1 and 16 years after an index EGD without billing or cancer registry codes for BE/EAC/EGJAC. Of them, 4,088 had a new billing or cancer registry code for BE/EAC/EGJAC after the repeat EGD. On manual review of a stratified sample, most did not truly have new BE/EAC/EGJAC. A longer duration between EGD was associated with greater odds of a new diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for each 5 years 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.44), particularly among those who were younger during the index EGD (ages 19-29 years: aOR 3.92; 95% CI 1.24-12.4; ages 60-69 years: aOR 1.19; 95% CI 1.01-1.40). DISCUSSION: The yield of repeat EGD for BE/EAC/EGJAC seems to increase with time after a normal index EGD, particularly for younger individuals. Prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings.

Dostarlimab for recurrent mismatch repair-deficient endometrial cancer: A cost-effectiveness study.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with recurrent endometrial cancer treated with carboplatin and paclitaxel whose disease progresses have few effective treatment options. Based on promising clinical trial data, the anti-programmed cell death 1 (anti-PD-1) antibody dostarlimab was recently granted accelerated approval for endometrial cancer by the US Food and Drug Administration. We developed a decision model to examine the cost-effectiveness of dostarlimab for patients with progressive/recurrent deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) endometrial cancer whose disease has progressed with first-line chemotherapy. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness study. POPULATION: Hypothetical cohort of 6000 women with progressive/recurrent dMMR endometrial cancer. METHODS: The initial decision point in the Markov model was treatment with dostarlimab, pembrolizumab or pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD). Model probabilities, and cost and utility values were derived with assumptions drawn from published literature. Effectiveness was estimated as average quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. One-way, two-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to vary the assumptions across a range of plausible values. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: Pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) was the least costly strategy, at $55,732, followed by dostarlimab ($151,533) and pembrolizumab ($154,597). Based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY, PLD was cost-effective compared with dostarlimab, with an ICER of $331,913 per QALY gained for dostarlimab, whereas pembrolizumab was ruled out by extended dominance (less effective, more costly), compared with dostarlimab. In one-way sensitivity analyses, dostarlimab was cost-effective when its cost was reduced to $4905 (52% reduction). These results were robust in a variety of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Dostarlimab is associated with greater survival compared with other treatments for women with recurrent dMMR endometrial cancer. Although the agent is substantially more costly, dostarlimab became cost-effective when its cost was reduced to $5489 per cycle.