RESUMEN
Purpose: To assess whether there is a long-term relationship between childhood behaviour problems and type 2 diabetes in midlife. The study will also investigate whether any of such relationship is independent of other factors which may be associated with type 2 diabetes. Design: Cohort study. Participants: A total of 9377 members of the 1958 British birth cohort participated in the biomedical survey at age 45 years. The cohort has been followed up at regular intervals in childhood (age 7, 11 and 16 years) and adulthood (23, 33, 42 and 45 years). Predictor Variables: Information regarding childhood behaviour collected during follow-ups at ages 7, 11 and 16 years. Main Outcome Variables: Type 2 diabetes assessed using HbA1c at age 45 years. Results: Unadjusted estimates show that teachers reported adolescent behaviour problems at age of 16 are associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes in midlife. After adjustment for potential confounders and mediators in childhood and adulthood, a relationship was observed between the severity of adolescent behaviour problems and type 2 diabetes risk in midlife (mild behaviour problems: OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.11-4.23; severe behaviour problems: OR 4.40, 95% CI 1.14-16.99). However, no such relationship was observed between behaviour problems at 7 and 11 years and type 2 diabetes in midlife. Conclusion: There is an association between adolescent behaviour problems and an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in midlife. Further molecular/genetic studies are required to understand the biological basis for this observed association.
RESUMEN
Purpose: To develop and validate a simple risk model for predicting metabolic syndrome in midlife using a prospective cohort data. Design: Prospective cohort study. Participants: A total of 7626 members of the 1958 British birth cohort (individuals born in the first week of March 1958) participated in the biomedical survey at age 45 and have completed information on metabolic syndrome. Methods: Variables utilised were obtained prospectively at birth, 7, 16, 23 and 45 years. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a total of ten (10) MetS risk prediction models taking the life course approach. Measures of discrimination and calibration were used to evaluate the performance of the models. A pragmatic criteria developed was used to select one model with the most potential to be useful. The internal validity (overfitting) of the selected model was assessed using bootstrap technique of Stata. Main Outcome Measure: Metabolic syndrome was definedâ¯based on the NCEP-ATP IIIâ¯clinical criteria. Results: There is high prevalence of MetS among the cohort members (19.6%), with males having higher risk as compared to females (22.8% vs 16.4%, P < 0.001). Individuals with MetS are more likely to have higher levels of HbA1c and low HDL-cholesterol. Similarly, regarding the individual components of MetS, male cohort members are more likely to have higher levels of glycaemia (HbA1c), BP and serum triglycerides. In contrast, female cohort members have lower levels of HDL-cholesterol and higher levels of waist circumference. Furthermore, a total of ten (10) MetS risk prediction models were developed taking the life course approach. Of these, one model with the most potential to be applied in practical setting was selected. The model has good accuracy (AUROC 0.91 (0.90, 0.92)), is well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow 6.47 (0.595)) and has good internal validity. Conclusion: Early life factors could be included in a risk model to predict MetS in midlife. The developed model has been shown to be accurate and has good internal validity. Therefore, interventions targeting socioeconomic inequality could help in the wider prevention of MetS. However, the validity of the developed model needs to be further established in an external population.
