Ensemble machine learning for predicting in-hospital mortality in Asian women with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

The accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality in Asian women after ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) remains a crucial issue in medical research. Existing models frequently neglect this demographic's particular attributes, resulting in poor treatment outcomes. This study aims to improve the prediction of in-hospital mortality in multi-ethnic Asian women with STEMI by employing both base and ensemble machine learning (ML) models. We centred on the development of demographic-specific models using data from the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Disease Database spanning 2006 to 2016. Through a careful iterative feature selection approach that included feature importance and sequential backward elimination, significant variables such as systolic blood pressure, Killip class, fasting blood glucose, beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE), and oral hypoglycemic medications were identified. The findings of our study revealed that ML models with selected features outperformed the conventional Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Risk score, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.60 to 0.93 versus TIMI's AUC of 0.81. Remarkably, our best-performing ensemble ML model was surpassed by the base ML model, support vector machine (SVM) Linear with SVM selected features (AUC: 0.93, CI: 0.89-0.98 versus AUC: 0.91, CI: 0.87-0.96). Furthermore, the women-specific model outperformed a non-gender-specific STEMI model (AUC: 0.92, CI: 0.87-0.97). Our findings demonstrate the value of women-specific ML models over standard approaches, emphasizing the importance of continued testing and validation to improve clinical care for women with STEMI.

Validation of the general Framingham Risk Score (FRS), SCORE2, revised PCE and WHO CVD risk scores in an Asian population.

Background: Cardiovascular risk prediction models incorporate myriad CVD risk factors. Current prediction models are developed from non-Asian populations, and their utility in other parts of the world is unknown. We validated and compared the performance of CVD risk prediction models in an Asian population. Methods: Four validation groups were extracted from a longitudinal community-based study dataset of 12,573 participants aged ≥18 years to validate the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2), Revised Pooled Cohort Equations (RPCE), and World Health Organization cardiovascular disease (WHO CVD) models. Two measures of validation are examined: discrimination and calibration. Outcome of interest was 10-year risk of CVD events (fatal and non-fatal). SCORE2 and RPCE performances were compared to SCORE and PCE, respectively. Findings: FRS (AUC = 0.750) and RPCE (AUC = 0.752) showed good discrimination in CVD risk prediction. Although FRS and RPCE have poor calibration, FRS demonstrates smaller discordance for FRS vs. RPCE (298% vs. 733% in men, 146% vs. 391% in women). Other models had reasonable discrimination (AUC = 0.706-0.732). Only SCORE2-Low, -Moderate and -High (aged <50) had good calibration (X2 goodness-of-fit, P-value = 0.514, 0.189, 0.129, respectively). SCORE2 and RPCE showed improvements compared to SCORE (AUC = 0.755 vs. 0.747, P-value <0.001) and PCE (AUC = 0.752 vs. 0.546, P-value <0.001), respectively. Almost all risk models overestimated 10-year CVD risk by 3%-1430%. Interpretation: In Malaysians, RPCE are evaluated be the most clinically useful to predict CVD risk. Additionally, SCORE2 and RPCE outperformed SCORE and PCE, respectively. Funding: This work was supported by the Malaysian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation (MOSTI) (Grant No: TDF03211036).

In-hospital mortality risk stratification of Asian ACS patients with artificial intelligence algorithm.

BACKGROUND: Conventional risk score for predicting in-hospital mortality following Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) is not catered for Asian patients and requires different types of scoring algorithms for STEMI and NSTEMI patients. OBJECTIVE: To derive a single algorithm using deep learning and machine learning for the prediction and identification of factors associated with in-hospital mortality in Asian patients with ACS and to compare performance to a conventional risk score. METHODS: The Malaysian National Cardiovascular Disease Database (NCVD) registry, is a multi-ethnic, heterogeneous database spanning from 2006-2017. It was used for in-hospital mortality model development with 54 variables considered for patients with STEMI and Non-STEMI (NSTEMI). Mortality prediction was analyzed using feature selection methods with machine learning algorithms. Deep learning algorithm using features selected from machine learning was compared to Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score. RESULTS: A total of 68528 patients were included in the analysis. Deep learning models constructed using all features and selected features from machine learning resulted in higher performance than machine learning and TIMI risk score (p < 0.0001 for all). The best model in this study is the combination of features selected from the SVM algorithm with a deep learning classifier. The DL (SVM selected var) algorithm demonstrated the highest predictive performance with the least number of predictors (14 predictors) for in-hospital prediction of STEMI patients (AUC = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95-0.96). In NSTEMI in-hospital prediction, DL (RF selected var) (AUC = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95-0.96, reported slightly higher AUC compared to DL (SVM selected var) (AUC = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.94-0.95). There was no significant difference between DL (SVM selected var) algorithm and DL (RF selected var) algorithm (p = 0.5). When compared to the DL (SVM selected var) model, the TIMI score underestimates patients' risk of mortality. TIMI risk score correctly identified 13.08% of the high-risk patient's non-survival vs 24.7% for the DL model and 4.65% vs 19.7% of the high-risk patient's non-survival for NSTEMI. Age, heart rate, Killip class, cardiac catheterization, oral hypoglycemia use and antiarrhythmic agent were found to be common predictors of in-hospital mortality across all ML feature selection models in this study. The final algorithm was converted into an online tool with a database for continuous data archiving for prospective validation. CONCLUSIONS: ACS patients were better classified using a combination of machine learning and deep learning in a multi-ethnic Asian population when compared to TIMI scoring. Machine learning enables the identification of distinct factors in individual Asian populations to improve mortality prediction. Continuous testing and validation will allow for better risk stratification in the future, potentially altering management and outcomes.

In-hospital risk stratification algorithm of Asian elderly patients.

Limited research has been conducted in Asian elderly patients (aged 65 years and above) for in-hospital mortality prediction after an ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) using Deep Learning (DL) and Machine Learning (ML). We used DL and ML to predict in-hospital mortality in Asian elderly STEMI patients and compared it to a conventional risk score for myocardial infraction outcomes. Malaysia's National Cardiovascular Disease Registry comprises an ethnically diverse Asian elderly population (3991 patients). 50 variables helped in establishing the in-hospital death prediction model. The TIMI score was used to predict mortality using DL and feature selection methods from ML algorithms. The main performance metric was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The DL and ML model constructed using ML feature selection outperforms the conventional risk scoring score, TIMI (AUC 0.75). DL built from ML features (AUC ranging from 0.93 to 0.95) outscored DL built from all features (AUC 0.93). The TIMI score underestimates mortality in the elderly. TIMI predicts 18.4% higher mortality than the DL algorithm (44.7%). All ML feature selection algorithms identify age, fasting blood glucose, heart rate, Killip class, oral hypoglycemic agent, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol as common predictors of mortality in the elderly. In a multi-ethnic population, DL outperformed the TIMI risk score in classifying elderly STEMI patients. ML improves death prediction by identifying separate characteristics in older Asian populations. Continuous testing and validation will improve future risk classification, management, and results.