Simple risk scoring using sinus rhythm electrocardiograms predicts the incidence of atrial fibrillation in the general population.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an arrhythmic disease. Prediction of AF development in healthy individuals is important before serious complications occur. We aimed to develop a risk prediction score for future AF using participants' data, including electrocardiogram (ECG) measurements and information such as age and sex. We included 88,907 Japanese participants, aged 30-69 years, who were randomly assigned to derivation and validation cohorts in a ratio of 1:1. We performed multivariate logistic regression analysis and obtained the standardised beta coefficient of relevant factors and assigned scores to them. We created a score based on prognostic factors for AF to predict its occurrence after five years and applied it to validation cohorts to assess its reproducibility. The risk score ranged from 0 to 17, consisting of age, sex, PR prolongation, QT corrected for heart rate prolongation, left ventricular hypertrophy, premature atrial contraction, and left axis deviation. The area under the curve was 0.75 for the derivation cohort and 0.73 for the validation cohort. The incidence of new-onset AF reached over 2% at 10 points of the risk score in both cohorts. Thus, in this study, we showed the possibility of predicting new-onset AF using ECG findings and simple information.

Association between weight gain following smoking cessation and development of hypertension in the future.

Although quitting smoking lowers the risk of developing chronic conditions, it usually leads to weight gain. Literature on the association between weight gain after quitting smoking and the future development of hypertension is scarce. Among 234 596 individuals who visited our health center, 856 who had quit smoking for whom data were available at least 6 years after smoking cessation were included. We evaluated changes in blood pressure and antihypertensive drug prescription rate at 1 and 6 years after smoking cessation. We also compared weight and blood pressure between the smoking cessation and continued smoking groups after 6 years. Multiple regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressures using covariates affecting blood pressure. Since a median weight gain of 1.8 kg was observed at 1 year after smoking cessation, we divided the participants into high and low-weight gain groups. No significant intergroup difference in the antihypertensive drug prescription rate was observed after 6 years. The high weight gain group showed significant increases in systolic and diastolic blood pressures after 6 years. Multiple regression analyses revealed that systolic blood pressure was affected by age and high weight gain, while diastolic blood pressure was affected by high weight gain. Our findings suggest that weight gain following smoking cessation leads to blood pressure elevation: the smoking cessation group gained more weight and had higher blood pressure than the continued smoking group. Therefore, weight loss guidance may be useful for individuals who want to quit smoking. Participants in the high weight gain group showed significant increases in systolic and diastolic blood pressures at 6 years after smoking cessation that were significantly different from those observed in participants in the low weight gain group and the continued smoking group.

Association between anthropometric indices and 5-year hypertension incidence in the general Japanese population.

No existing reports demonstrate the association between anthropometric indices (body mass index, waist circumference, body roundness index, a body shape index) and hypertension according to sex and age in the general Japanese population. This retrospective analysis involved individuals aged 30-69 years who underwent annual medical checkups at Kagoshima Koseiren Hospital in 2005-2019, and who did not meet hypertension criteria at baseline. The outcome was hypertension incidence after 5 years, and its association with baseline anthropometric indices was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression analysis by sex and age. In 41,902 participants (age 52.3 ± 10.2 years, 47.7% men), 7622 individuals (18.2%) developed hypertension after 5 years. Body mass index, waist circumference, and body roundness index were significantly associated with the development of hypertension in both men and women across all age categories from 30 s to 60 s. In the population with a body mass index <25 kg/m2, waist circumference and body roundness index were significantly associated with hypertension after 5 years. A body shape index was significantly associated with the development of hypertension in men in their 40 s and 50 s but not in women of any age group. The area under the curve values were lower for a body shape index than for body mass index, waist circumference, and body roundness index in both men and women of all age groups. A body shape index was not a stronger indicator for 5-year hypertension incidence than body mass index, waist circumference, or body roundness index in both men and women across age groups from their 30s-60 s. The results of this study will help to more efficiently identify populations at high risk of developing hypertension and provide preventive interventions. A total of 41,902 participants from health checkup programs were stratified by gender and age to investigate the association between baseline anthropometric indices and hypertension incidence over a 5-year period. BMI, WC, and BRI were almost equally effective and showed a better association with risk of developing hypertension in women and young adults compared to men and old adults. Conversely, ABSI showed no greater association than BMI or WC in any age group in both men and women. ABSI, a body shape index; AUC, area under the curve from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis; BMI, body mass index; BRI, body roundness index; WC, waist circumference.

Relationship between defecation status and blood pressure level or blood pressure variability.

Blood pressure variability is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease. Defecation status has also been associated with the risk of developing cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to investigate the association between blood pressure variability and defecation status. A total of 184 participants who could measure their home blood pressure for at least 8 days monthly, both at baseline and 1 year later, were included in this study. All participants had their home blood pressure measured using HEM-9700T (OMRON Healthcare). Day-to-day variability of systolic blood pressure was assessed using the coefficient of variation of home systolic blood pressure during 1 month. Data on defecation status was obtained using a questionnaire survey. Eighty-nine patients had an elevated coefficient of variation at 1 year. The proportion of participants with elevated coefficient of variation at 1 year was significantly higher in the no daily bowel movement group than in the daily bowel movement group (72% vs. 42%, P = 0.001). In multivariable logistic regression analysis with the elevated coefficient of variation at 1 year as the objective variable and age, sex, no daily bowel movement, taking medications, including antihypertensive drugs, laxatives, and intestinal preparations, and coefficient of variation at baseline as independent variables, no daily bowel movement was independently associated with the elevated coefficient of variation at 1 year (odds ratio: 3.81, 95% confidence interval: 1.64-8.87, P = 0.0019). In conclusion, no daily bowel movement was independently associated with elevated day-to-day blood pressure variability at 1 year. Relationship between defecation status and blood pressure level or blood pressure variability.

Triglyceride-glucose index predicts future chronic kidney disease development in all populations, including normotensive and isolated diastolic hypertension.

Hypertension and insulin resistance are established risk factors for chronic kidney disease. However, the association between chronic kidney disease and insulin resistance in detailed hypertension pattern groups such as isolated diastolic hypertension remains unclear. Triglyceride-glucose index has been noted as an indicator of insulin resistance. This study investigated the association between the triglyceride-glucose index and chronic kidney disease in four blood pressure groups: isolated diastolic hypertension, isolated systolic hypertension, systolic diastolic hypertension, and normotension. Using a database of 41,811 middle-aged men who had two or more annual health checkups from 2007 to 2019, those with chronic kidney disease at the first visit, antihypertensive/diabetes/dyslipidemia medication users, and incomplete data were excluded. Four groups were categorized using the 140/90 mmHg threshold. A COX proportional hazards model was used to assess the triglyceride-glucose index with incident chronic kidney disease. Participants were divided: isolated diastolic hypertension: 2207 (6.72%), isolated systolic hypertension: 2316 (7.06%), systolic-diastolic hypertension: 3299 (10.05%), normal: 24,996 (76.17%). The follow-up period was 6.78 years. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs per unit increase in triglyceride-glucose index: isolated diastolic hypertension (HR = 1.31, 95% CI (1.06-1.62)), isolated systolic hypertension (HR = 1.36, 95% CI (1.12-1.64)), systolic-diastolic hypertension (HR = 1.40, 95% CI (1.19-1.64)), normal (HR = 1.18, 95% CI (1.09-1.28)). Triglyceride-glucose index is relevant for predicting chronic kidney disease development in all subtypes of hypertension. The results may lead to early prediction and prevention of the development of chronic kidney disease.

Sex-specific associations between serum uric acid levels and risk of hypertension for different diagnostic reference values of high blood pressure.

The association between uric acid (UA) and hyperuricemia with 5-year hypertension incidence using different blood pressure (BP) diagnostic references in men and women without cardiometabolic diseases is unknown. We used the checkup data from Kagoshima Kouseiren Hospital. All participants with hypertension or on BP medication, diabetes, dyslipidemia, obesity, estimated glomerular filtration rate<60 ml/min/1.73m2, metabolic syndrome, history of gout, and UA-lowering medication were excluded. UA was categorized into sex-specific quartiles and hyperuricemia was defined as UA > 7 mg/dl in men and UA > 6 mg/dl in women. We performed multivariate logistic regression to assess the effects of UA on hypertension development. The 5-year hypertension incidence was defined as subsets of BP ≥ 140/90 mmHg in cohort 1 and BP ≥ 130/80 mmHg in cohort 2. The study enrolled 21,443 participants (39.8%, men) in cohort 1 and 15,245 participants (36.5%, men) in cohort 2. The incidence of hypertension in cohorts 1 and 2 over 5 years was 16.3% and 29.7% in men and 10.9% and 21.4% in women, respectively. When comparing the fourth to the first UA quartile, there was an association with hypertension in men in cohort 1, with odds ratio (OR): 1.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.63, p < 0.01) and cohort 2, OR: 1.31 (95%CI, 1.09-1.57, p < 0.01), respectively, but not in women. Additionally, an association between hyperuricemia and hypertension was observed in men only in cohort 1, with OR: 1.23 (95%CI, 1.07-1.42, p = 0.02), and in women in cohort 2, OR: 1.57 (95%CI, 1.14-2.16, p < 0.01). The effect of UA on the development of hypertension is influenced by sex and incidence differs with the BP reference used. Uric acid effect on the development of hypertension is affected by sex and incidence differs with the BP reference used.

Different effects of medications for hypertension on renal function between patients with and without diabetes mellitus undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: a retrospective single-center cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension are well-known atherosclerosis risk factors. Furthermore, renal dysfunction is a crucial risk factor for patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), and managing renal function in these patients is complicated because of comorbid conditions and potential side effects during treatment. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effect of medications for hypertension on renal function after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) between patients with and without DM with statins. METHODS: In 297 consecutive patients undergoing PCI for stable angina pectoris, cystatin C (CysC) was evaluated at baseline and 9 months after PCI, and the percent change in CysC (%CysC) was calculated. The association of worsening renal function (WRF: %CysC ≥ 0) and baseline characteristics, including medications, was assessed. RESULTS: Among 297 hypertensive patients with statins, 196 and 101 were with and without DM, respectively. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI), angiotensin II receptor blocker, and ß-blocker were prescribed in 56 (29%), 82 (42%), and 91 (46%) patients in the DM group, and 20 (20%), 52 (51%), and 52 (51%) in the non-DM group, respectively. The patients with WRF after PCI were 100 (51%) and 59 (58%) in the DM and non-DM groups (p = 0.261). Additionally, the %CysC had no significant differences between groups [median: 0%, interquartile range (IQR): -7.9% to 8.5% vs. median: 1.1%, IQR: -6.6% to 9.6%, p = 0.521]. Multivariate logistic analysis for WRF using relevant factors from univariate analysis showed that only ß-blocker [odds ratio (OR): 2.76, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-7.90, p = 0.048] was independently associated with WRF in the DM group whereas ACEI (OR: 0.07, 95% CI: 0.01-0.47, p = 0.012) was negatively correlated with WRF in the non-DM group. CONCLUSION: The ß-blocker was the independent risk factor for WRF in patients with DM in the late phase after PCI for stable angina pectoris, while the use of ACEI had a renoprotective effect in patients without DM.

J-shaped Association between Serum Uric Acid Levels and the Prevalence of a Reduced Kidney Function: A Cross-Sectional Study Using Japanese Health Examination Data.

Objective While an association between a reduced kidney function and hyperuricemia has been reported, its association with hypouricemia is not well understood. The present study therefore investigated this association. Methods Using a large Japanese health examination dataset, we performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the association between serum uric acid (SUA) levels and a reduced kidney function. The covariates included the age, body mass index, alcohol intake, and the presence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, or diabetes. Patients This study included 227,672 patients (104,854 men; 46.1%), and the analyses were performed separately for men and women. The patients were classified into 5 groups: hypouricemia (SUA ≤2.0 mg/dL) (1st) and four other (2nd-5th) groups with SUA levels of ≤2.0, 2.1-5.1, 5.2-5.9, 6.0-6.8, ≥6.9 mg/dL in men and ≤2.0, 2.1-3.7, 3.8-4.4, 4.5-5.1, ≥5.2 mg/dL in women, respectively. Results The characteristics of the study population were as follows: men, age 55.9±14.9 years old, SUA 5.9±1.3 mg/dL, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 80.0±17.2 mL/min/1.73 m2, and a reduced kidney function (eGFR<60.0 mL/min/1.73 m2) 9.4%; women, age 57.3±15.0 years old, SUA 4.5±1.1 mg/dL, eGFR 81.2±18.0 mL/min/1.73 m2, and a reduced kidney function 9.4%. Compared with the 2nd group, the other 4 groups groups had a significantly higher prevalence of a reduced kidney function [odds ratio (OR), 2.58; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.64-4.06 in men; OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.16-2.39 in women]. Conclusion The prevalence of a reduced kidney function was high in both men and women in the hypouricemia and high-SUA groups. SUA levels and the prevalence of a reduced kidney function showed a J-shaped association.

Prediction of Slow-Flow Phenomenon After Stent Implantation Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy in Patients With Acute and Chronic Coronary Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: The slow-flow phenomenon is associated with worse clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), so our goal for this study was to see how predictive how near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) could be.Methods and Results: We enrolled 179 lesions from 152 patients who had de novo coronary stent implantation guided by NIRS-intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) (male: 69.1%, mean age: 74.3±11.5 years, acute coronary syndrome: 65.1%, diabetes: 42.1%). NIRS automatically determined the maximum 4-mm lipid core burden index (maxLCBI4 mm) value at pre- and post-PCI procedures. The slow-flow phenomenon was defined as the deterioration of TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) flows on angiography during the PCI procedure in the absence of mechanical obstruction. The slow-flow phenomenon occurred in 13 (7.3%) lesions, and the slow-flow phenomenon group had a significantly higher maxLCBI4 mm(740±147 vs. 471±223, P<0.001). The best maxLCBI4 mmcutoff point in both acute and chronic coronary syndrome was 578 and 480, with sensitivity of 100%, for predicting the slow-flow phenomenon. In the receiver-operating characteristics analysis, the area under the curve for acute and chronic coronary syndrome was 0.849 and 0.851, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study support the utility of NIRS-IVUS-guided PCI for the prediction of the slow-flow phenomenon.

Living alone predicts poor prognosis among patients with acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Living alone as a proxy for social isolation has been considered to increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. We thus investigated the impact of living alone on mortality in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients. METHODS: Subjects comprised 277 AMI patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Associations between all-cause and cardiac deaths after PCI and baseline characteristics including living alone and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score were assessed. RESULTS: Eighty-three patients (30%) were living alone. Thirty patients died after PCI, including 20 cardiac deaths. Patients living alone showed higher incidences of both all-cause and cardiac deaths compared with patients not living alone (18% vs. 8%, P  = 0.019 and 14% vs. 4%, P  = 0.004). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis models showed living alone [hazard ratio (HR), 2.60; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20-5.62; P  = 0.016 and HR, 4.17; 95% CI, 1.60-10.84; P  = 0.003] and GRACE risk score (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; P  = 0.003 and HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04; P  < 0.001) correlated significantly with all-cause and cardiac deaths. Cox proportional hazards modeling revealed that patients living alone with GRACE risk score ≥162 derived from the receiver-operating characteristic curve showed a significantly greater risk of all-cause death than patients not living alone with GRACE risk score <162 (HR 16.57; 95% CI 6.67-41.21; P  < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Among AMI patients, living alone represents an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiac deaths after PCI, separate from GRACE risk score. Furthermore, AMI patients living alone with high GRACE risk scores may experience an additively increased risk of mortality after PCI.

A case of cardiac metastasis of neuroendocrine tumor with 2-year follow-up.

A 55-year-old male underwent surgery for thymus gland tumors six years previously, and for lung and pancreas tumors three years previously, which were pathologically diagnosed as neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). During routine medical checkups, a giant negative T-wave was observed on the electrocardiogram. Echocardiography revealed a tumor at the apex. A surgical biopsy was performed; the tumor was diagnosed as a cardiac metastasis of NETs, and chemotherapy was initiated. Two years later, echocardiography confirmed that the tumor had not increased in size. A 2-year follow-up of NETs cardiac metastasis is rare; we therefore report this case. Learning objective: Neuroendocrine tumors are considered slowly progressing tumors, but despite the presence of cardiac metastasis, accurate diagnosis and appropriate treatment have allowed the patient to survive the disease for more than two years.

Risk Factors for Vulnerable Plaque Detected Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy in Patients Receiving Statin Therapy with No History of Coronary Artery Disease.

Residual risk of atherosclerosis remains high despite the use of lipid-lowering therapy with statins. Near-infrared spectroscopy intravascular ultrasound imaging (NIRS-IVUS) can identify vulnerable plaque via the detection of lipid-rich plaque. This study aimed to reveal the clinical characteristics of patients with vulnerable plaque despite statin therapy.NIRS-IVUS was used to determine the maximum 4 mm Lipid Core Burden Index (MaxLCBI4 mm) values of 38 de novo culprit lesions from 32 patients with acute coronary syndrome (53%) (mean age: 73.1 ± 13.1 years) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention after a minimum 6 months of statin therapy for primary prevention. A patient with vulnerable plaque was defined as an individual presenting at least 1 target lesion with a vulnerable plaque (MaxLCBI4 mm > 400). Overall, the average low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level was 95.5 ± 27.2 mg/dL. Patients in the vulnerable plaque group were younger and had higher LDL-C, triglycerides, and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels than those in the non-vulnerable plaque group. The MaxLCBI4 mm was positively correlated with LDL-C (P = 0.0002), triglycerides (P = 0.0003), and non-HDL-C (P = 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, all 3 treatable lipid components failed to show an independent relationship with the patients with vulnerable plaque. Using receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis, the cutoff points for LDL-C, triglycerides, and non-HDL-C were determined to be 78 mg/dL, 108 mg/dL, and 111 mg/dL, respectively, at MaxLCBI4 mm > 400. In conclusion, this study supports a more comprehensive and aggressive lipid-lowering therapy for the primary prevention of coronary artery disease.

Cardio-Ankle Vascular Index and Left Atrial Reverse Remodeling After Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation.

Arterial stiffness has been reported to cause left atrial (LA) remodeling due to increased left ventricular filling pressure, resulting in atrial fibrillation (AF). This study aimed to evaluate the association between LA reverse remodeling (LARR) after AF ablation and cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI), an indicator of arterial stiffness.This study included 333 patients with AF (171 with paroxysmal AF and 162 with nonparoxysmal AF) and LA enlargement (LA volume index ≥ 34 mL/m2) who underwent AF ablation between December 2008 and July 2021. CAVI was evaluated preoperatively during AF (n = 155, 46.5%) or sinus rhythm (n = 178, 53.5%). Participants were divided into groups with LARR (n = 133, 39.9%) and without LARR (n = 200, 60.1%) according to whether the degree of decrease in LA volume index on transthoracic echocardiography 6 months after ablation was ≥ 15% or < 15%, respectively.Sinus rhythm was maintained in 168 (50.5%) patients within 3-6 months after the index procedure. Univariate analysis revealed that preoperative CAVI (7.80 ± 1.22 versus 8.57 ± 1.09, P < 0.001) was significantly lower, and the maintenance of sinus rhythm (61.6% versus 43.0%, P = 0.0011) was higher in the group with LARR. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that preoperative CAVI was independently associated with LARR (odds ratio, 0.60, 95% confidence interval, 0.46-0.78, P < 0.001).In patients with AF and LA enlargement, CAVI is independently associated with LA reverse remodeling after catheter ablation.

Plastic Syringes Instead of Heparin-added Dedicated Syringes for Blood Gas Analysis: A Prospective Observational Study.

Introduction: Blood gas analysis is an important test for making quick and important clinical decisions, and it is recommended that a dedicated syringe that contains heparin be used to measure blood gas. We hypothesized that a plastic syringe could be used as a less-expensive substitute for a dedicated syringe, given that the test is performed immediately after collection. Methods: This single-center, prospective, observational study involved patients admitted to the Kanoya Medical Center (Kagoshima, Japan) between July 2020 and March 2021, who were requiring blood gas analysis using a dedicated syringe under arterial line (A-line) monitoring. There were no exclusion criteria. Two samples were collected from each patient using a dedicated syringe, and one sample was collected using a plastic syringe. To determine clinical substitutability, Bland-Altman analysis was performed. Results: A total of 60 samples from 20 consecutive patients were collected and assayed. The mean patient age was 72 years, and 75% patients were men. The 95% limit of agreement for pH, PCO2, PO2, Na, K, Ca, and SO2 were similar for both dedicated and plastic syringes. HCO3 and BE were significantly higher in the samples taken with plastic syringes, whereas Hb and Ht could not be measured accurately with any syringe. Conclusions: The use of plastic syringes in place of dedicated syringes is generally considered acceptable for most items considering that measurement is performed within 3 min of collection, and the cost of medical materials may be reduced. Regardless of the type of syringe, caution should be exercised in interpreting the results of measuring Hb and Ht using a blood gas analyzer.

Development of predictive equation and score for 5-year metabolic syndrome incidence in Japanese adults.

BACKGROUND: Predicting metabolic syndrome (MetS) is important for identifying high-risk cardiovascular disease individuals and providing preventive interventions. We aimed to develop and validate an equation and a simple MetS score according to the Japanese MetS criteria. METHODS: In total, 54,198 participants (age, 54.5±10.1 years; men, 46.0%), with baseline and 5-year follow-up data were randomly assigned to 'Derivation' and 'Validation' cohorts (ratio: 2:1). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed in derivation cohort and scores were assigned to factors corresponding to ß-coefficients. We evaluated predictive ability of the scores using area under the curve (AUC), then applied them to validation cohort to assess reproducibility. RESULTS: The primary model ranged 0-27 points had an AUC of 0.81 (sensitivity: 0.81, specificity: 0.81, cut-off score: 14), and consisted of age, sex, blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), serum lipids, glucose measurements, tobacco smoking, and alcohol consumption. The simplified model (excluding blood tests) ranged 0-17 points with an AUC of 0.78 (sensitivity: 0.83, specificity: 0.77, cut-off score: 15) and included: age, sex, systolic BP, diastolic BP, BMI, tobacco smoking, and alcohol consumption. We classified individuals with a score <15 and ≥15 points as low- and high-risk MetS, respectively. Furthermore, the equation model generated an AUC of 0.85 (sensitivity: 0.86, specificity: 0.55). Analysis of the validation and derivation cohorts yielded similar results. CONCLUSION: We developed a primary score, an equation model, and a simple score. The simple score is convenient, well-validated with acceptable discrimination, and could be used for early detection of MetS in high-risk individuals.

Clinical significance of atherosclerotic risk factors differs in early and advanced stages of plaque formation: A longitudinal study in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Carotid plaque is a well-known prognostic factor for cardiovascular diseases. It is unclear which risk factors are associated with the transformation of carotid plaque over time. In this longitudinal study, we examined the risk factors related to carotid plaque progression. METHODS: We enrolled 738 men without medication (mean age: 55 ± 10 years) who underwent the first and second health examinations. We measured carotid plaque thickness (PT) at three points of the right and left carotid artery. Plaque score (PS) was calculated by summing all the PTs. We divided the PS into three groups: None-group (PS <1.1), Early-group (1.1 ≤ PS <5.1), and Advanced-group (PS ≥5.1). We analyzed the relationship between PS progression and parameters such as age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting blood sugar, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and smoking and exercise habits. RESULTS: In multivariable logistic regression analysis, age and SBP were independent factors for PS progression from none to early stages (age, OR 1.07, p = 0.002; SBP, 10 mmHg, OR 1.27, p = 0.041). Age, follow-up period and LDL-C were independently associated factors for PS progression from early to advanced stages (age, OR 1.08,p < 0.001; follow-up period OR1.19, p = 0.041; LDL-C, 10 mg/dL, OR 1.10, p = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: SBP was independently associated with the progress of early atherosclerosis, while LDL-C was independently associated with the progression of advanced atherosclerosis in the general population. Further studies are needed to assess whether early control of SBP and LDL-C levels can reduce the occurrence of future cardiovascular events.

Development of a risk prediction score and equation for chronic kidney disease: a retrospective cohort study.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a risk factor for end-stage renal disease and contributes to increased risk of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk prediction score and equation for future CKD using health checkup data. This study included 58,423 Japanese participants aged 30-69 years, who were randomly assigned to derivation and validation cohorts at a ratio of 2:1. The predictors were anthropometric indices, life style, and blood sampling data. In derivation cohort, we performed multivariable logistic regression analysis and obtained the standardized beta coefficient of each factor that was significantly associated with new-onset CKD and assigned scores to each factor. We created a score and an equation to predict CKD after 5 years and applied them to validation cohort to assess their reproducibility. The risk score ranged 0-16, consisting of age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, hyperuricemia, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 for the derivation cohort and 0.79 for the validation cohort. The CKD incidence gradually and constantly increased as the score increased from ≤ 6 to ≥ 14. The equation consisted of the seven indices described above, with AUC of 0.88 for the derivation cohort and 0.89 for the validation cohort. We developed a risk score and equation to predict CKD incidence after 5 years in Japanese population under 70 years of age. These models had reasonably high predictivity, and their reproducibility was confirmed through internal validation.

The Kagoshima-DVT Score Is a Useful Predictive Model for Cancer-Associated Thrombosis in Patients With Gastrointestinal Cancer.

Background: Cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT) is a common complication of cancer and has received increasing attention; the Khorana Risk Score (KRS) is a recommended but insufficient risk assessment model for CAT. We propose a novel Kagoshima-DVT score (KDS) to predict preoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT). This scoring method scores D-dimer ≥1.5 µg/mL, age ≥60 years, female sex, ongoing glucocorticoids, cancer with high risk of DVT, and prolonged immobility. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of the KDS and KRS in predicting CAT in patients with gastrointestinal cancer. Methods and Results: In all, 250 patients without a history of thrombosis who received their first chemotherapy for gastrointestinal cancer were divided into low- (48.0%), intermediate- (38.8%), and high-risk (13.2%) groups for CAT development by the KDS. The patients' median age was 67 years and 63.2% were men. In all, 61 (27.1%) patients developed CAT (17.6%, 35.3%, and 36.4% of patients in the low-, intermediate, and high-risk groups, respectively; log-rank P=0.006). The area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve for CAT occurrence within 1 year was larger for the KDS than KRS (0.653 vs. 0.494). Conclusions: A high KDS at the start of first chemotherapy is a risk indicator for CAT development during chemotherapy. Moreover, the KDS is more useful than the KRS in predicting CAT risk.

Impact of Malnutrition on Prognosis and Coronary Artery Calcification in Patients with Stable Coronary Artery Disease.

Nutritional status is an important factor affecting prognosis of cardiovascular diseases. We compared major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) between the malnutrition (geriatric nutritional risk index <92) and non-malnutrition (geriatric nutritional risk index ≥92) groups in 500 stable coronary artery disease patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention and evaluated coronary calcification by intravascular ultrasound. Incidences of all-cause death and MACCE differed between the malnutrition and non-malnutrition groups (22% vs 5%, P < 0.001 and 24% vs 6%, P < 0.001). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, malnutrition significantly correlated with all-cause death (P = 0.006) and MACCE (P = 0.010). The proportion of moderate/severe calcification differed between the malnutrition (64%) and non-malnutrition groups (33%, P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic analysis identified age (P < 0.001), malnutrition (P = 0.048), and hemodialysis (P < 0.001) as significantly related to moderate/severe calcification. Malnutrition was an independent risk factor for all-cause death and MACCE in coronary artery disease patients after percutaneous coronary intervention and was associated with moderately/severely calcified lesions.