Development of a dynamic food chain model for assessment of the radiological impact from radioactive releases to the aquatic environment.

The software tool POSEIDON-R was developed for modelling the concentration of radionuclides in water and sediments as well as uptake and fate in the aquatic environment and marine organisms. The software has been actively advanced in the aftermath of the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. This includes development of an uptake model for the benthic food chain, a kinetic-allometric compartment model for fish and recent advancements for the application of 3H. This work will focus on the food chain model development and its extension to key artificial radionuclides in radioecology such as 3H. Subsequently, the model will be applied to assess the radiological dose for marine biota from 3H, 90Sr, 131I, 134Cs and 137Cs released during and after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. The simulation results for 3H, 90Sr, 131I, 134Cs and 137Cs obtained from the coastal box (4-4 km) located at the discharge area of the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, and the surrounding regional box (15-30 km) are compared with measurements. The predictions are by and large consistent with experimental findings, although good validation for 3H, 90Sr and 131I is challenging due to lack of data. On the basis of the model predictions a dose assessment for pelagic and benthic fish is carried out. Maximum absorbed dose rates in the coastal box and the regional box are respectively 6000 and 50 µGy d-1 and are found in the pelagic non-piscivorous fish. Dose rates exceeding ICRP's derived consideration levels of 1 mGy d-1 are only found in the direct vicinity of the release and shortly after the accident. During the post-accidental phase absorbed dose rates consistently fall to levels where no deleterious effects to the marine biota are expected. The results also demonstrate the prolonged dose rate from 134Cs and 137Cs, particularly for benthic organisms, due to caesium's affinity with sediment, re-entry of caesium from the sediment into the food chain and external exposure from its high energetic gamma emissions. Uptake of non-organic tritium (HTO) and organically bound tritium (OBT) is modelled and shows some accumulation of OBT in the marine organism. However, dose rates from tritium, even during the accident, are low.

Using a chain of models to predict health and environmental impacts in Norway from a hypothetical nuclear accident at the Sellafield site.

When a nuclear accident occurs, decision makers in the affected country/countries would need to act promptly to protect people, the environment and societal interests from harmful impacts of radioactive fallout. The decisions are usually based on a combination of model prognoses, measurements, and expert judgements within in an emergency decision support system (DSS). Large scale nuclear accidents would need predictive models for the atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, for the connections between these in terms of radionuclide fluxes, and for the various exposure pathways to both humans and biota. Our study showed that eight different models and DSS modules could be linked to assess the total human and environmental consequences in Norway from a hypothetical nuclear accident, here chosen to be the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant. Activity concentrations and dose rates from 137Cs for both humans and the environment via various exposure routes were successfully modelled. The study showed that a release of 1% of the total inventory of 137Cs in the Highly Active Liquor Tanks at Sellafield Ltd is predicted to severely impact humans and the environment in Norway if strong winds are blowing towards the country at the time of an accidental atmospheric release. Furthermore, since the models did not have built-in uncertainty ranges when this Sellafield study was performed, investigations were conducted to identify the key factors contributing to uncertainty in various models and prioritise the ones to focus on in future research.

Marine radioecology after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident: Are we better positioned to understand the impact of radionuclides in marine ecosystems?

This paper focuses on how a community of researchers under the COMET (CO-ordination and iMplementation of a pan European projecT for radioecology) project has improved the capacity of marine radioecology to understand at the process level the behaviour of radionuclides in the marine environment, uptake by organisms and the resulting doses after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident occurred in 2011. We present new radioecological understanding of the processes involved, such as the interaction of waterborne radionuclides with suspended particles and sediments or the biological uptake and turnover of radionuclides, which have been better quantified and mathematically described. We demonstrate that biokinetic models can better represent radionuclide transfer to biota in non-equilibrium situations, bringing more realism to predictions, especially when combining physical, chemical and biological interactions that occur in such an open and dynamic environment as the ocean. As a result, we are readier now than we were before the FDNPP accident in terms of having models that can be applied to dynamic situations. The paper concludes with our vision for marine radioecology as a fundamental research discipline and we present a strategy for our discipline at the European and international levels. The lessons learned are presented along with their possible applicability to assess/reduce the environmental consequences of future accidents to the marine environment and guidance for future research, as well as to assure the sustainability of marine radioecology. This guidance necessarily reflects on why and where further research funding is needed, signalling the way for future investigations.

Modelling of marine radionuclide dispersion in IAEA MODARIA program: Lessons learnt from the Baltic Sea and Fukushima scenarios.

State-of-the art dispersion models were applied to simulate (137)Cs dispersion from Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster fallout in the Baltic Sea and from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant releases in the Pacific Ocean after the 2011 tsunami. Models were of different nature, from box to full three-dimensional models, and included water/sediment interactions. Agreement between models was very good in the Baltic. In the case of Fukushima, results from models could be considered to be in acceptable agreement only after a model harmonization process consisting of using exactly the same forcing (water circulation and parameters) in all models. It was found that the dynamics of the considered system (magnitude and variability of currents) was essential in obtaining a good agreement between models. The difficulties in developing operative models for decision-making support in these dynamic environments were highlighted. Three stages which should be considered after an emergency, each of them requiring specific modelling approaches, have been defined. They are the emergency, the post-emergency and the long-term phases.

A comparison of marine radionuclide dispersion models for the Baltic Sea in the frame of IAEA MODARIA program.

Four radionuclide dispersion models have been applied to simulate the transport and distribution of (137)Cs fallout from Chernobyl accident in the Baltic Sea. Models correspond to two categories: box models and hydrodynamic models which solve water circulation and then an advection/diffusion equation. In all cases, interactions of dissolved radionuclides with suspended matter and bed sediments are included. Model results have been compared with extensive field data obtained from HELCOM database. Inventories in the water column and seabed, as well as (137)Cs concentrations along 5 years in water and sediments of several sub-basins of the Baltic, have been used for model comparisons. Values predicted by the models for the target magnitudes are very similar and close to experimental values. Results suggest that some processes are not very relevant for radionuclide transport within the Baltic Sea, for instance the roles of the ice cover and, surprisingly, water stratification. Also, results confirm previous findings concerning multi-model applications.

The sensitivity of different environments to radioactive contamination.

This paper describes modelling calculations carried out to determine the sensitivity of various rural and semi-natural environments to radionuclide contamination by (137)Cs, (90)Sr, and (131)I released during a major nuclear accident. Depositions of 1000 Bq/m(3) were assumed for each radionuclide. Four broad types of environments were considered: agricultural, forest or tundra, freshwater aquatic, and coastal marine. A number of different models were applied to each environment. The annual dose to a human population receiving most or all of its food and drinking water from a given environment was taken as a broad measure of sensitivity. The results demonstrated that environmental sensitivity was highly radionuclide specific, with (137)Cs generally giving the highest doses during the first year, especially for adults, in terrestrial and freshwater pathways. However, in coastal marine environments, (131)I and (239)Pu were more significant. Sensitivity was time dependent with doses for the first year dominating those for the 2nd and 10th years after deposition. In agricultural environments the ingestion dose from (137)Cs was higher for adults than other age groups, whereas for (90)Sr and (131)I, the ingestion dose was highest for infants. The dependence of sensitivity on social and economic factors such as individual living habits, food consumption preferences, and agricultural practices is discussed.

Evaluation of environmental sensitivity of the marine regions.

The knowledge about environmental sensitivity of the marine regions to radionuclide release can be used for the development of response strategies and improvement of design-maker systems. The present results are based on the consequences analysis after potential Russian submarine accident involving a modern vessel. The radioecological consequences are based on modelling of potential releases of radionuclides, radionuclide transport and uptake in the marine environment. The sensitivity analysis is based on the comparison of the results of simulations with the recommendations and criterions for protection of the human population and the environment. The results show that the doses to marine organisms living in the sea sediment near the accident location, and dose rates to the critical group are the most sensitive state parameters (endpoints) for describing the consequences to the marine environment in the present evaluation.

Radioecological consequences of a potential accident during transport of spent nuclear fuel along an Arctic coastline.

This article presents results pertaining to a risk assessment of the potential consequences of a hypothetical accident occurring during the transportation by ship of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) along an Arctic coastline. The findings are based on modelling of potential releases of radionuclides, radionuclide transport and uptake in the marine environment. Modelling work has been done using a revised box model developed at the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority. Evaluation of the radioecological consequences of a potential accident in the southern part of the Norwegian Current has been made on the basis of calculated collective dose to man, individual doses for the critical group, concentrations of radionuclides in seafood and doses to marine organisms. The results of the calculations indicate a large variability in the investigated parameters above mentioned. On the basis of the calculated parameters the maximum total activity ("accepted accident activity") in the ship, when the parameters that describe the consequences after the examined potential accident are still in agreement with the recommendations and criterions for protection of the human population and the environment, has been evaluated.

The accidental sinking of the nuclear submarine, the Kursk: monitoring of radioactivity and the preliminary assessment of the potential impact of radioactive releases.

Measurements of samples taken from the close vicinity of the Kursk during two expeditions to the site in August and October 2000, indicate that no leakage of radionuclides from the reactors has been observed. Only background levels in the range 0.0-0.1 microSv/h have been measured by use of the remote operating vehicle (ROV) or by the divers working on and inside the submarine. Preliminary model calculations based on two different scenarios, representing short- and long-term releases of 100% of the reactors radionuclide inventory, show that the impact on man and the environment from the Kursk should not be deemed very serious. The conservative estimates indicate a maximum 137Cs activity concentration in fish in the order of about 80-100 Bq/kg and a total collective dose of 97 manSv.

Modified approach to modelling radiological consequences from releases into the marine environment.

One of the general assumptions for box modelling of the dispersion of radionuclides in marine systems relates to instantaneous mixing in each box which, in turn, results in practical calculations involving instantaneous mixing in the whole of oceanic space. A new approach to box modelling, which includes dispersion of radionuclides as a function of time, was therefore developed in order to provide a better and more realistic/physical approximation to reality relative to traditional box modelling. The novel and significant practical features of the approach are discussed. Calculations of concentrations of radionuclides in the marine environment and doses to man for some scenarios indicate differences of up to orders of magnitude between the traditional and new approaches to box modelling.

Collective doses to man from dumping of radioactive waste in the Arctic Seas.

A box model for the dispersion of radionuclides in the marine environment covering the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean has been constructed. Collective doses from ingestion pathways have been calculated from unit releases of the radionuclides 3H, 60Co, 63Ni, 90Sr, 129I, 137Cs, 239Pu and 241Am into a fjord on the east coast of NovayaZemlya. The results show that doses for the shorter-lived radionuclides (e.g. 137Cs) are derived mainly from seafood production in the Barents Sea. Doses from the longer-lived radionuclides (e.g. 239Pu) are delivered through marine produce further away from the Arctic Ocean. Collective doses were calculated for two release scenarios, both of which are based on information of the dumping of radioactive waste in the Barents and Kara Seas by the former Soviet Union and on preliminary information from the International Arctic Sea Assessment Programme. A worst-case scenario was assumed according to which all radionuclides in liquid and solid radioactive waste were available for dispersion in the marine environment at the time of dumping. Release of radionuclides from spent nuclear fuel was assumed to take place by direct corrosion of the fuel ignoring the barriers that prevent direct contact between the fuel and the seawater. The second scenario selected assumed that releases of radionuclides from spent nuclear fuel do not occur until after failure of the protective barriers. All other liquid and solid radioactive waste was assumed to be available for dispersion at the time of discharge in both scenarios. The estimated collective dose for the worst-case scenario was about 9 manSv and that for the second scenario was about 3 manSv. In both cases, 137Cs is the radionuclide predicted to dominate the collective doses as well as the peak collective dose rates.