RESUMEN
Ascitic fluid infection is a serious complication of liver cirrhosis. The distinction between the more common spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and the less common secondary peritonitis in patients with liver cirrhosis is crucial due to the varying treatment approaches. This retrospective multicentre study was conducted in three German hospitals and analysed 532 SBP episodes and 37 secondary peritonitis episodes. Overall, >30 clinical, microbiological, and laboratory parameters were evaluated to identify key differentiation criteria. Microbiological characteristics in ascites followed by severity of illness and clinicopathological parameters in ascites were the most important predictors identified by a random forest model to distinguish between SBP and secondary peritonitis. To establish a point-score model, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model selected the ten most promising discriminatory features. By aiming at a sensitivity of 95% either to rule out or rule in SBP episodes, two cut-off scores were defined, dividing patients with infected ascites into a low-risk (score ≥ 45) and high-risk group (score < 25) for secondary peritonitis. Overall, the discrimination of secondary peritonitis from SBP remains challenging. Our univariable analyses, random forest model, and LASSO point score may help clinicians with the crucial differentiation between SBP and secondary peritonitis.
RESUMEN
This study is aimed at assessing the distinctive features of patients with infected ascites and liver cirrhosis and developing a scoring system to allow for the accurate identification of patients not requiring abdominocentesis to rule out infected ascites. A total of 700 episodes of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis undergoing abdominocentesis between 2006 and 2020 were included. Overall, 34 clinical, drug, and laboratory features were evaluated using machine learning to identify key differentiation criteria and integrate them into a point-score model. In total, 11 discriminatory features were selected using a Lasso regression model to establish a point-score model. Considering pre-test probabilities for infected ascites of 10%, 15%, and 25%, the negative and positive predictive values of the point-score model for infected ascites were 98.1%, 97.0%, 94.6% and 14.9%, 21.8%, and 34.5%, respectively. Besides the main model, a simplified model was generated, containing only features that are fast to collect, which revealed similar predictive values. Our point-score model appears to be a promising non-invasive approach to rule out infected ascites in clinical routine with high negative predictive values in patients with hydropic decompensated liver cirrhosis, but further external validation in a prospective study is needed.
