Nitrogen dioxide exposure, health outcomes, and associated demographic disparities due to gas and propane combustion by U.S. stoves.

Gas and propane stoves emit nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution indoors, but the exposures of different U.S. demographic groups are unknown. We estimate NO2 exposure and health consequences using emissions and concentration measurements from >100 homes, a room-specific indoor air quality model, epidemiological risk parameters, and statistical sampling of housing characteristics and occupant behavior. Gas and propane stoves increase long-term NO2 exposure 4.0 parts per billion volume on average across the United States, 75% of the World Health Organization's exposure guideline. This increased exposure likely causes ~50,000 cases of current pediatric asthma from long-term NO2 exposure alone. Short-term NO2 exposure from typical gas stove use frequently exceeds both World Health Organization and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency benchmarks. People living in residences <800 ft2 in size incur four times more long-term NO2 exposure than people in residences >3000 ft2 in size; American Indian/Alaska Native and Black and Hispanic/Latino households incur 60 and 20% more NO2 exposure, respectively, than the national average.

Recent increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme methane fluxes driven by changes in climate and vegetation in boreal and temperate wetland ecosystems.

Climate warming is expected to increase global methane (CH4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems. Although in situ eddy covariance (EC) measurements at ecosystem scales can potentially detect CH4 flux changes, most EC systems have only a few years of data collected, so temporal trends in CH4 remain uncertain. Here, we use established drivers to hindcast changes in CH4 fluxes (FCH4 ) since the early 1980s. We trained a machine learning (ML) model on CH4 flux measurements from 22 [methane-producing sites] in wetland, upland, and lake sites of the FLUXNET-CH4 database with at least two full years of measurements across temperate and boreal biomes. The gradient boosting decision tree ML model then hindcasted daily FCH4 over 1981-2018 using meteorological reanalysis data. We found that, mainly driven by rising temperature, half of the sites (n = 11) showed significant increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme FCH4 , with increases in FCH4 of ca. 10% or higher found in the fall from 1981-1989 to 2010-2018. The annual trends were driven by increases during summer and fall, particularly at high-CH4 -emitting fen sites dominated by aerenchymatous plants. We also found that the distribution of days of extremely high FCH4 (defined according to the 95th percentile of the daily FCH4 values over a reference period) have become more frequent during the last four decades and currently account for 10-40% of the total seasonal fluxes. The share of extreme FCH4 days in the total seasonal fluxes was greatest in winter for boreal/taiga sites and in spring for temperate sites, which highlights the increasing importance of the non-growing seasons in annual budgets. Our results shed light on the effects of climate warming on wetlands, which appears to be extending the CH4 emission seasons and boosting extreme emissions.

Global distribution of surface soil organic carbon in urban greenspaces.

Urban greenspaces continue to grow with global urbanization. The global distribution and stock of soil organic carbon (SOC) in urban greenspaces remain largely undescribed and missing in global carbon (C) budgets. Here, we synthesize data of 420 observations from 257 cities in 52 countries to evaluate the global pattern of surface SOC density (0-20 cm depth) in urban greenspaces. Surface SOC density in urban greenspaces increases significantly at higher latitudes and decreases significantly with higher mean annual temperature, stronger temperature and precipitation seasonality, as well as lower urban greenness index. By mapping surface SOC density using a random forest model, we estimate an average SOC density of 55.2 (51.9-58.6) Mg C ha-1 and a SOC stock of 1.46 (1.37-1.54) Pg C in global urban greenspaces. Our findings present a comprehensive assessment of SOC in global urban greenspaces and provide a baseline for future urban soil C assessment under continuing urbanization.

Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use.

Climate, technologies, and socio-economic changes will influence future building energy use in cities. However, current low-resolution regional and state-level analyses are insufficient to reliably assist city-level decision-making. Here we estimate mid-century hourly building energy consumption in 277 U.S. urban areas using a bottom-up approach. The projected future climate change results in heterogeneous changes in energy use intensity (EUI) among urban areas, particularly under higher warming scenarios, with on average 10.1-37.7% increases in the frequency of peak building electricity EUI but over 110% increases in some cities. For each 1 °C of warming, the mean city-scale space-conditioning EUI experiences an average increase/decrease of ~14%/ ~ 10% for space cooling/heating. Heterogeneous city-scale building source energy use changes are primarily driven by population and power sector changes, on average ranging from -9% to 40% with consistent south-north gradients under different scenarios. Across the scenarios considered here, the changes in city-scale building source energy use, when averaged over all urban areas, are as follows: -2.5% to -2.0% due to climate change, 7.3% to 52.2% due to population growth, and -17.1% to -8.9% due to power sector decarbonization. Our findings underscore the necessity of considering intercity heterogeneity when developing sustainable and resilient urban energy systems.

Gas and Propane Combustion from Stoves Emits Benzene and Increases Indoor Air Pollution.

Exposure pathways to the carcinogen benzene are well-established from tobacco smoke, oil and gas development, refining, gasoline pumping, and gasoline and diesel combustion. Combustion has also been linked to the formation of nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and formaldehyde indoors from gas stoves. To our knowledge, however, no research has quantified the formation of benzene indoors from gas combustion by stoves. Across 87 homes in California and Colorado, natural gas and propane combustion emitted detectable and repeatable levels of benzene that in some homes raised indoor benzene concentrations above well-established health benchmarks. Mean benzene emissions from gas and propane burners on high and ovens set to 350 °F ranged from 2.8 to 6.5 µg min-1, 10 to 25 times higher than emissions from electric coil and radiant alternatives; neither induction stoves nor the food being cooked emitted detectable benzene. Benzene produced by gas and propane stoves also migrated throughout homes, in some cases elevating bedroom benzene concentrations above chronic health benchmarks for hours after the stove was turned off. Combustion of gas and propane from stoves may be a substantial benzene exposure pathway and can reduce indoor air quality.

Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates.

The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH4 ) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH4 source, estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH4 year-1 ) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.

Single-blind validation of space-based point-source detection and quantification of onshore methane emissions.

Satellites are increasingly seen as a tool for identifying large greenhouse gas point sources for mitigation, but independent verification of satellite performance is needed for acceptance and use by policy makers and stakeholders. We conduct to our knowledge the first single-blind controlled methane release testing of satellite-based methane emissions detection and quantification, with five independent teams analyzing data from one to five satellites each for this desert-based test. Teams correctly identified 71% of all emissions, ranging from 0.20 [0.19, 0.21] metric tons per hour (t/h) to 7.2 [6.8, 7.6] t/h. Three-quarters (75%) of quantified estimates fell within ± 50% of the metered value, comparable to airplane-based remote sensing technologies. The relatively wide-area Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 satellites detected emissions as low as 1.4 [1.3, 1.5, 95% confidence interval] t/h, while GHGSat's targeted system quantified a 0.20 [0.19, 0.21] t/h emission to within 13%. While the fraction of global methane emissions detectable by satellite remains unknown, we estimate that satellite networks could see 19-89% of total oil and natural gas system emissions detected in a recent survey of a high-emitting region.

Global patterns of water storage in the rooting zones of vegetation.

The rooting-zone water-storage capacity-the amount of water accessible to plants-controls the sensitivity of land-atmosphere exchange of water and carbon during dry periods. How the rooting-zone water-storage capacity varies spatially is largely unknown and not directly observable. Here we estimate rooting-zone water-storage capacity globally from the relationship between remotely sensed vegetation activity, measured by combining evapotranspiration, sun-induced fluorescence and radiation estimates, and the cumulative water deficit calculated from daily time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration. Our findings indicate plant-available water stores that exceed the storage capacity of 2-m-deep soils across 37% of Earth's vegetated surface. We find that biome-level variations of rooting-zone water-storage capacities correlate with observed rooting-zone depth distributions and reflect the influence of hydroclimate, as measured by the magnitude of annual cumulative water-deficit extremes. Smaller-scale variations are linked to topography and land use. Our findings document large spatial variations in the effective root-zone water-storage capacity and illustrate a tight link among the climatology of water deficits, rooting depth of vegetation and its sensitivity to water stress.

Extensive global wetland loss over the past three centuries.

Wetlands have long been drained for human use, thereby strongly affecting greenhouse gas fluxes, flood control, nutrient cycling and biodiversity1,2. Nevertheless, the global extent of natural wetland loss remains remarkably uncertain3. Here, we reconstruct the spatial distribution and timing of wetland loss through conversion to seven human land uses between 1700 and 2020, by combining national and subnational records of drainage and conversion with land-use maps and simulated wetland extents. We estimate that 3.4 million km2 (confidence interval 2.9-3.8) of inland wetlands have been lost since 1700, primarily for conversion to croplands. This net loss of 21% (confidence interval 16-23%) of global wetland area is lower than that suggested previously by extrapolations of data disproportionately from high-loss regions. Wetland loss has been concentrated in Europe, the United States and China, and rapidly expanded during the mid-twentieth century. Our reconstruction elucidates the timing and land-use drivers of global wetland losses, providing an improved historical baseline to guide assessment of wetland loss impact on Earth system processes, conservation planning to protect remaining wetlands and prioritization of sites for wetland restoration4.

Modeled production, oxidation, and transport processes of wetland methane emissions in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions.

Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH4 ) to the atmosphere. The eddy covariance method provides robust measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CH4 , but interpreting its spatiotemporal variations is challenging due to the co-occurrence of CH4 production, oxidation, and transport dynamics. Here, we estimate these three processes using a data-model fusion approach across 25 wetlands in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions. Our data-constrained model-iPEACE-reasonably reproduced CH4 emissions at 19 of the 25 sites with normalized root mean square error of 0.59, correlation coefficient of 0.82, and normalized standard deviation of 0.87. Among the three processes, CH4 production appeared to be the most important process, followed by oxidation in explaining inter-site variations in CH4 emissions. Based on a sensitivity analysis, CH4 emissions were generally more sensitive to decreased water table than to increased gross primary productivity or soil temperature. For periods with leaf area index (LAI) of ≥20% of its annual peak, plant-mediated transport appeared to be the major pathway for CH4 transport. Contributions from ebullition and diffusion were relatively high during low LAI (<20%) periods. The lag time between CH4 production and CH4 emissions tended to be short in fen sites (3 ± 2 days) and long in bog sites (13 ± 10 days). Based on a principal component analysis, we found that parameters for CH4 production, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion through water explained 77% of the variance in the parameters across the 19 sites, highlighting the importance of these parameters for predicting wetland CH4 emissions across biomes. These processes and associated parameters for CH4 emissions among and within the wetlands provide useful insights for interpreting observed net CH4 fluxes, estimating sensitivities to biophysical variables, and modeling global CH4 fluxes.

Global stocks and capacity of mineral-associated soil organic carbon.

Soil is the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon and is central for climate change mitigation and carbon-climate feedbacks. Chemical and physical associations of soil carbon with minerals play a critical role in carbon storage, but the amount and global capacity for storage in this form remain unquantified. Here, we produce spatially-resolved global estimates of mineral-associated organic carbon stocks and carbon-storage capacity by analyzing 1144 globally-distributed soil profiles. We show that current stocks total 899 Pg C to a depth of 1 m in non-permafrost mineral soils. Although this constitutes 66% and 70% of soil carbon in surface and deeper layers, respectively, it is only 42% and 21% of the mineralogical capacity. Regions under agricultural management and deeper soil layers show the largest undersaturation of mineral-associated carbon. Critically, the degree of undersaturation indicates sequestration efficiency over years to decades. We show that, across 103 carbon-accrual measurements spanning management interventions globally, soils furthest from their mineralogical capacity are more effective at accruing carbon; sequestration rates average 3-times higher in soils at one tenth of their capacity compared to soils at one half of their capacity. Our findings provide insights into the world's soils, their capacity to store carbon, and priority regions and actions for soil carbon management.

A 130-year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers.

Livestock contributes approximately one-third of global anthropogenic methane (CH4 ) emissions. Quantifying the spatial and temporal variations of these emissions is crucial for climate change mitigation. Although country-level information is reported regularly through national inventories and global databases, spatially explicit quantification of century-long dynamics of CH4 emissions from livestock has been poorly investigated. Using the Tier 2 method adopted from the 2019 Refinement to 2006 IPCC guidelines, we estimated CH4 emissions from global livestock at a spatial resolution of 0.083° (~9 km at the equator) during the period 1890-2019. We find that global CH4 emissions from livestock increased from 31.8 [26.5-37.1] (mean [minimum-maximum of 95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 yr-1 in 1890 to 131.7 [109.6-153.7] Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2019, a fourfold increase in the past 130 years. The growth in global CH4 emissions mostly occurred after 1950 and was mainly attributed to the cattle sector. Our estimate shows faster growth in livestock CH4 emissions as compared to the previous Tier 1 estimates and is ~20% higher than the estimate from FAOSTAT for the year 2019. Regionally, South Asia, Brazil, North Africa, China, the United States, Western Europe, and Equatorial Africa shared the majority of the global emissions in the 2010s. South Asia, tropical Africa, and Brazil have dominated the growth in global CH4 emissions from livestock in the recent three decades. Changes in livestock CH4 emissions were primarily associated with changes in population and national income and were also affected by the policy, diet shifts, livestock productivity improvement, and international trade. The new geospatial information on the magnitude and trends of livestock CH4 emissions identifies emission hotspots and spatial-temporal patterns, which will help to guide meaningful CH4 mitigation practices in the livestock sector at both local and global scales.

Anthropogenic emission is the main contributor to the rise of atmospheric methane during 1993-2017.

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have shown a puzzling resumption in growth since 2007 following a period of stabilization from 2000 to 2006. Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to explain the temporal variations in CH4 growth, and attribute the rise of atmospheric CH4 either to increases in emissions from fossil fuel activities, agriculture and natural wetlands, or to a decrease in the atmospheric chemical sink. Here, we use a comprehensive ensemble of CH4 source estimates and isotopic δ13C-CH4 source signature data to show that the resumption of CH4 growth is most likely due to increased anthropogenic emissions. Our emission scenarios that have the fewest biases with respect to isotopic composition suggest that the agriculture, landfill and waste sectors were responsible for 53 ± 13% of the renewed growth over the period 2007-2017 compared to 2000-2006; industrial fossil fuel sources explained an additional 34 ± 24%, and wetland sources contributed the least at 13 ± 9%. The hypothesis that a large increase in emissions from natural wetlands drove the decrease in atmospheric δ13C-CH4 values cannot be reconciled with current process-based wetland CH4 models. This finding suggests the need for increased wetland measurements to better understand the contemporary and future role of wetlands in the rise of atmospheric methane and climate feedback. Our findings highlight the predominant role of anthropogenic activities in driving the growth of atmospheric CH4 concentrations.

Land-use emissions embodied in international trade.

International trade separates consumption of goods from related environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land-use change (together referred to as "land-use emissions"). Through use of new emissions estimates and a multiregional input-output model, we evaluated land-use emissions embodied in global trade from 2004 to 2017. Annually, 27% of land-use emissions and 22% of agricultural land are related to agricultural products ultimately consumed in a different region from where they were produced. Roughly three-quarters of embodied emissions are from land-use change, with the largest transfers from lower-income countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Argentina to more industrialized regions such as Europe, the United States, and China. Mitigation of global land-use emissions and sustainable development may thus depend on improving the transparency of supply chains.

Plant sizes and shapes above and belowground and their interactions with climate.

Although the above and belowground sizes and shapes of plants strongly influence plant competition, community structure, and plant-environment interactions, plant sizes and shapes remain poorly characterized across climate regimes. We investigated relationships among shoot and root system size and climate. We assembled and analyzed, to our knowledge, the largest global database describing the maximum rooting depth, lateral spread, and shoot size of terrestrial plants - more than doubling the Root Systems of Individual Plants database to 5647 observations. Water availability and growth form greatly influence shoot size, and rooting depth is primarily influenced by temperature seasonality. Shoot size is the strongest predictor of lateral spread, with root system diameter being two times wider than shoot width on average for woody plants. Shoot size covaries strongly with rooting system size; however, the geometries of plants differ considerably across climates, with woody plants in more arid climates having shorter shoots, but deeper, narrower root systems. Additionally, estimates of the depth and lateral spread of plant root systems are likely underestimated at the global scale.

Contrasting responses of woody and grassland ecosystems to increased CO2 as water supply varies.

Experiments show that elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) often enhances plant photosynthesis and productivity, yet this effect varies substantially and may be climate sensitive. Understanding if, where and how water supply regulates CO2 enhancement is critical for projecting terrestrial responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change. Here, using data from 14 long-term ecosystem-scale CO2 experiments, we show that the eCO2 enhancement of annual aboveground net primary productivity is sensitive to annual precipitation and that this sensitivity differs between woody and grassland ecosystems. During wetter years, CO2 enhancement increases in woody ecosystems but declines in grass-dominated systems. Consistent with this difference, woody ecosystems can increase leaf area index in wetter years more effectively under eCO2 than can grassland ecosystems. Overall, and across different precipitation regimes, woody systems had markedly stronger CO2 enhancement (24%) than grasslands (13%). We developed an empirical relationship to quantify aboveground net primary productivity enhancement on the basis of changes in leaf area index, providing a new approach for evaluating eCO2 impacts on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems.

Methane and NOx Emissions from Natural Gas Stoves, Cooktops, and Ovens in Residential Homes.

Natural gas stoves in >40 million U.S. residences release methane (CH4)─a potent greenhouse gas─through post-meter leaks and incomplete combustion. We quantified methane released in 53 homes during all phases of stove use: steady-state-off (appliance not in use), steady-state-on (during combustion), and transitory periods of ignition and extinguishment. We estimated that natural gas stoves emit 0.8-1.3% of the gas they use as unburned methane and that total U.S. stove emissions are 28.1 [95% confidence interval: 18.5, 41.2] Gg CH4 year-1. More than three-quarters of methane emissions we measured originated during steady-state-off. Using a 20-year timeframe for methane, annual methane emissions from all gas stoves in U.S. homes have a climate impact comparable to the annual carbon dioxide emissions of 500 000 cars. In addition to methane emissions, co-emitted health-damaging air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) are released into home air and can trigger respiratory diseases. In 32 homes, we measured NOx (NO and NO2) emissions and found them to be linearly related to the amount of natural gas burned (r2 = 0.76; p ≪ 0.01). Emissions averaged 21.7 [20.5, 22.9] ng NOx J-1, comprised of 7.8 [7.1, 8.4] ng NO2 J-1 and 14.0 [12.8, 15.1] ng NO J-1. Our data suggest that families who don't use their range hoods or who have poor ventilation can surpass the 1-h national standard of NO2 (100 ppb) within a few minutes of stove usage, particularly in smaller kitchens.

Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget.

The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH4 ) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH4 emissions and CH4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000-2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top-down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model-based) and bottom-up (BU) (inventory- and process model-based) CH4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions-China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil-account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH4  yr-1 in 2008-2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.