Shaping and enhancing resilient forests for a resilient society.

The world is currently facing uncertainty caused by environmental, social, and economic changes and by political shocks. Fostering social-ecological resilience by enhancing forests' ability to provide a range of ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, habitat provision, and sustainable livelihoods, is key to addressing such uncertainty. However, policy makers and managers currently lack a clear understanding of how to operationalise the shaping of resilience through the combined challenges of climate change, the biodiversity crisis, and changes in societal demand. Based on a scientific literature review, we identified a set of actions related to ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, and disturbance and pressure impacts that forest managers and policy makers should attend to enhance the resilience of European forest systems. We conclude that the resilience shaping of forests should (1) adopt an operational approach, which is currently lacking, (2) identify and address existing and future trade-offs while reinforcing win-wins and (3) attend to local particularities through an adaptive management approach.

A balancing act: Principles, criteria and indicator framework to operationalize social-ecological resilience of forests.

Against a background of intensifying climate-induced disturbances, the need to enhance the resilience of forests and forest management is gaining urgency. In forest management, multiple trade-offs exist between different demands as well as across and within temporal and spatial scales. However, methods to assess resilience that consider these trade-offs are presently lacking. Here we propose a hierarchical framework of principles, criteria, and indicators to assess the resilience of a social-ecological system by focusing on the mechanisms behind resilience. This hierarchical framework balances trade-offs between mechanisms, different parts of the social-ecological system, ecosystem services, and spatial as well as temporal scales. The framework was developed to be used in a participatory manner in forest management planning. It accounts for the major parts of the forest-related social-ecological system and considers the multiple trade-offs involved. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by applying it to a landscape dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in Central Europe, managed for three different management goals. The framework highlights how forest resilience varies with the pursued management goals and related management strategies. The framework is flexible and can be applied to various forest management contexts as part of a participatory process with stakeholders. It thus is an important step towards operationalizing social-ecological resilience in forest management systems.

Effect of decision rules in choice experiments on hunting and bushmeat trade.

Providing insight on decisions to hunt and trade bushmeat can facilitate improved management interventions that typically include enforcement, alternative employment, and donation of livestock. Conservation interventions to regulate bushmeat hunting and trade have hitherto been based on assumptions of utility- (i.e., personal benefits) maximizing behavior, which influences the types of incentives designed. However, if individuals instead strive to minimize regret, interventions may be misguided. We tested support for 3 hypotheses regarding decision rules through a choice experiment in Tanzania. We estimated models based on the assumptions of random utility maximization (RUM) and pure random regret maximization (P-RRM) and combinations thereof. One of these models had an attribute-specific decision rule and another had a class-specific decision rule. The RUM model outperformed the P-RRM model, but the attribute-specific model performed better. Allowing respondents with different decision rules and preference heterogeneity within each decision rule in a class-specific model performed best, revealing that 55% of the sample used a P-RRM decision rule. Individuals using a P-RRM decision rule responded less to enforcement, salary, and livestock donation than did individuals using the RUM decision rule. Hence, 3 common strategies, enforcement, alternative income-generating activities, and providing livestock as a substitute protein, are likely less effective in changing the behavior of more than half of respondents. Only salary elicited a large (i.e. elastic) response, and only for one RUM class. Policies to regulate the bushmeat trade based solely on the assumption of individuals maximizing utility, may fail for a significant proportion of the sample. Despite the superior performance of models that allow both RUM and P-RRM decision rules there are drawbacks that must be considered before use in the Global South, where very little is known about the social-psychology of decision making.

Efecto de las Reglas de Decisión en los Experimentos de Selección sobre la Cacería y el Mercado de la Carne de Animales Silvestres Resumen La obtención de conocimiento del porqué se elige cazar o comerciar con carne de animales silvestres puede facilitar mejoras en el manejo de las intervenciones que típicamente incluyen el cumplimiento de leyes, el empleo alternativo y la donación de ganado. Las intervenciones de conservación para regular la cacería y el comercio hasta ahora han estado basadas en suposiciones de comportamiento de maximización de la utilidad (es decir, los beneficios personales), las cuales influyen sobre los tipos de incentivos que son diseñados. Sin embargo, si los individuos en lugar de eso buscan minimizar el arrepentimiento, las intervenciones pueden ser erróneas. Evaluamos el apoyo para tres hipótesis con respecto a las reglas de decisión mediante un experimento de selección en Tanzania. Estimamos los modelos con base en las suposiciones de la maximización aleatoria de la utilidad (MAU) y la maximización aleatoria pura del arrepentimiento (MAPA) y las combinaciones de estas. Uno de estos modelos tuvo una regla de decisión específica de atributo y otro modelo tuvo una regla de decisión específica de clase. El modelo MAU tuvo un mucho mejor desempeño que el modelo MAPA, pero el modelo específico de atributo fue el que tuvo el mejor desempeño de todos. El mejor desempeño se observó cuando permitimos a los respondientes con diferentes reglas de decisión y con heterogeneidad de preferencia dentro de cada regla de decisión en un modelo específico de clase, lo que revela que el 55% de las muestras usaron una regla de decisión MAPA. Los individuos que usaron una regla de decisión MAPA respondieron menos al cumplimiento de leyes, el salario y la donación de ganado que aquellos individuos que usaron la regla de decisión MAU. Por esto, las tres estrategias comunes (cumplimiento de leyes, actividades alternativas generadoras de ingresos y el sustento de ganado como sustituto de la proteína) probablemente sean menos efectivas en el cambio del comportamiento de más de la mitad de los respondientes. Solamente el salario provocó una respuesta elástica, y solamente fue para una clase MAU. Las políticas que regulan el mercado de la carne de animales silvstres basadas solamente en la suposición de que los individuos maximizan la utilidad pueden fallar para una proporción significativa de la muestra. A pesar del desempeño superior de los modelos que permiten las reglas de decisión MAU y MAPA, existen desventajas que deben ser consideradas antes del uso de los modelos en el hemisferio sur, en donde se conoce muy poco sobre la psicología social de las decisiones.

Roads and livelihood activity choices in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem, Tanzania.

Road development is occurring at an unprecedented rate in important conservation areas in tropical countries with limited understanding of how local people will adjust their livelihood activities in response. We use a discrete choice experiment to explore the effect of road development on respondents ex-ante preferences for changes in livelihood activities-crop and livestock production, hunting and trading bushmeat, and business and wage employment-under different incentives-provision of loans, livestock and crop extension services-in scenarios with reduced travel time to nearest district town in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem in Tanzania. We test four hypotheses about the effects of roads with opposing implication for conservation. Hypothesis 1 predicts that increased market access will lead to intensification of crop and livestock production activities (achieved through extension services and loans), and Hypothesis 2 that market access will facilitate the development of non-farm Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) providing new livelihood opportunities (e.g. business income and wage employment)-both reducing environmental pressure. Hypotheis 3 on the other hand predicts that improved market access will lead to extensification and expansion of crop and livestock production activities, while Hypotheis 4 suggests that it will encourage exploitation of environmental goods (here in the form of hunting and trading bushmeat and illegal grazing inside protected areas)-both increasing environmental pressure. We find increasing preferences for more cropland and more cattle as travel time to market is reduced but no preference for increased allocation of household members to hunting and trading bushmeat supporting hypothesis 3 while contradicting hypothesis 4. However, second-order effects might support hypothesis 4 as we find aversion towards decreasing effort invested in hunting and trading bushmeat. Preferences for increased cropland and livestock may furthermore interact to increase land use change and illegal grazing inside protected areas. Crop extension services had a negative modifying effect on preferences for more cropland (supporting hypothesis 1) while livestock extension services had a positive modifying effect on preferences for more cattle (contradicting hypothesis 1). Providing loans had a negative modifying effect on preferences for increasing cropland and number of cattle. Marginal rates of substitution suggest that 950,000 TSH borrowed at a 10% interest rate will reduce preferences for more cropland and cattle by 11.8 and 38.4% respectively. Crop extension services reduce preferences for more cropland by 27% whereas livestock extension services increase preferences for more cattle by 104%. Contradicting Hypothesis 2, we found no preference for increasing the number of households members engaged in business and wage employment in response to reduced travel time. Targeted efforts to increase the educational level as well as entrepreneurship skills in the GSE could promote engagement in the labour market and development of business enterprises diverting focus from traditional activities such as farming and livestock production and hence reducing pressure on the ecosystem.

Utilising portfolio theory in environmental research - New perspectives and considerations.

Modern Portfolio Theory is a well-established method in economic research for considering the risks and returns in asset allocations and the potential benefits of diversification for risk averse agents. Thus, it is a useful tool for guiding sustainability discourse under uncertain future states. Existing discussions around the method's use in environmental research have evolved during over the 75 years of its application, leading to a continued renewal of perspectives on utilising it. We classify the environmental questions where portfolio theory has been applied, and critically discuss the methodological approaches taken; providing a stepping stone for future use of the method. This article provides a framework for its application in environmental research using the following questions: 1) what is the type of research or management question and objective(s) of the decision-maker(s); 2) what are the definitions of the assets to be included in the portfolio; 3) what are the ways that returns are valued, discounted, distributed and weighted; 4) what is the most appropriate way for risks to be accounted for and managed, including the selection of the appropriate model and taking into account risk preferences; and 5) what are the definitions of constraints in the programming problem.

Contingent valuation of health and mood impacts of PM2.5 in Beijing, China.

Air pollution from PM2.5 affects many cities worldwide, causing both health impacts and mood depression. One of the obstacles to implementing environmental regulations for PM2.5 reduction is that there are limited studies of PM2.5 welfare loss and few investigations of mood depression caused by PM2.5. This article describes a survey study conducted in Beijing, China to estimate the welfare loss due to PM2.5. In total, 1709 participants completed either a face-to-face or online survey. A contingent valuation method was applied to elicit people's willingness to pay to avoid PM2.5 pollution and willingness to accept a compensation for such pollution. The payment/compensation was evaluated for two outcome variables: perceived health impacts and mood depression caused by PM2.5 pollution. This is one of few papers that explicitly studies the effects of PM2.5 on subjective well-being, and to the authors' knowledge, the first to estimate welfare loss from PM2.5 using a random forest model. Compared to the standard Turnbull, probit, and two-part models, the random forest model gave the best fit to the data, suggesting that this may be a useful tool for future studies too. The welfare loss due to health impacts and mood depression is CNY 1388.4/person/year and CNY 897.7/person/year respectively, indicating that the public attaches great importance to mood, feelings and happiness. The study provides scientific support to the development of economic policy instruments for PM2.5 control in China.

Effects of preference heterogeneity among landowners on spatial conservation prioritization.

The participation of private landowners in conservation is crucial to efficient biodiversity conservation. This is especially the case in settings where the share of private ownership is large and the economic costs associated with land acquisition are high. We used probit regression analysis and historical participation data to examine the likelihood of participation of Danish forest owners in a voluntary conservation program. We used the results to spatially predict the likelihood of participation of all forest owners in Denmark. We merged spatial data on the presence of forest, cadastral information on participation contracts, and individual-level socioeconomic information about the forest owners and their households. We included predicted participation in a probability model for species survival. Uninformed and informed (included land owner characteristics) models were then incorporated into a spatial prioritization for conservation of unmanaged forests. The choice models are based on sociodemographic data on the entire population of Danish forest owners and historical data on their participation in conservation schemes. Inclusion in the model of information on private landowners' willingness to supply land for conservation yielded at intermediate budget levels up to 30% more expected species coverage than the uninformed prioritization scheme. Our landowner-choice model provides an example of moving toward more implementable conservation planning.

Public support for conserving bird species runs counter to climate change impacts on their distributions.

There is increasing evidence that global climate change will alter the spatiotemporal occurrences and abundances of many species at continental scales. This will have implications for efficient conservation of biodiversity. We investigate if the general public in Denmark are willing to pay for the preservation of birds potentially immigrating and establishing breeding populations due to climate change to the same extent that they are for native species populations currently breeding in Denmark, but potentially emigrating due to climate change. We find that Danish citizens are willing to pay much more for the conservation of birds currently native to Denmark, than for bird species moving into the country--even when they are informed about the potential range shifts associated with climate change. The only exception is when immigrating species populations are under pressure at European level. Furthermore, people believing climate change to be man-made and people more knowledgeable about birds tended to have higher WTP for conservation of native species, relative to other people, whereas their preferences for conserving immigrant species generally resembled those of other people. Conservation investments rely heavily on public funding and hence on public support. Our results suggest that cross-country coordination of conservation efforts under climate change will be challenging in terms of achieving an appropriate balance between cost-effectiveness in adaptation and the concerns of a general public who seem mostly worried about protecting currently-native species.

Factors determining the choice of hunting and trading bushmeat in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania.

Regulation of illegal bushmeat trade is a major conservation challenge in Africa. We investigated what factors are most likely to induce actors in the bushmeat trade to shift to an alternative occupation by conducting a choice experiment with 325 actors in the bushmeat trade in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. Specifically, we asked respondents to choose between hunting or trading bushmeat and alternative salary-paying work, in a set of hypothetical scenarios where the attributes of these alternatives were varied and included measures of command and control, price of substitute meat, daily salary in the work option, and whether or not cows were donated to the respondent. We modeled the choice contingent on socioeconomic characteristics. The magnitude of fines and patrolling frequency had a significant but very low negative effect on the probability of choosing to engage in hunting or trading bushmeat compared with the salary of an alternative occupation. Donation of livestock and the price of substitute meats in the local market both affected the choice significantly in a negative and a positive direction, respectively. The wealthier a household was the more likely the respondent was to choose to continue hunting or trading bushmeat. On the margin, our results suggest that given current conditions in the Kilombero Valley on any given day 90% of the respondents would choose salary work at US$3.37/day over their activities in the bushmeat trade, all else equal.

Updating beliefs and combining evidence in adaptive forest management under climate change: a case study of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) in the Black Forest, Germany.

We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) forest in the Black Forest, Germany. We simulated forest development under a range of climate change scenarios and forest management alternatives. Our analysis used Bayesian updating and Dempster's rule of combination to simulate how observations of climate and forest variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation is superior for updating beliefs and supporting decision-making. However, with little conflict among information sources, the strongest evidence would be offered by a combination of at least two informative variables, e.g., temperature and precipitation. The success of adaptive forest management depends on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change.