External validation of two clinical prediction models for mortality in COVID-19 patients (4C and NEWS2), in three centers in Medellín, Colombia: Assessing the impact of vaccination over time.

OBJECTIVES: External validation of the 4C and NEWS2 scores for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients, and evaluation of its operational performance in two time periods: before and after the start of the vaccination program in Colombia. METHODS: Retrospective cohort in three high complexity hospitals in the city of Medellín, Colombia, between June 2020 and April 2022. RESULTS: The areas under the ROC curve (AUC) for the 4C mortality risk score and the NEWS2 were 0.75 (95% CI 0.73-0.78) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.66-0.71), respectively. For the 4C score, the AUC for the first and second periods was 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.80) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.71-0.78); whilst for the NEWS2 score, it was 0.68 (95% CI 0.65-0.71) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.64-0.73). The calibration for both scores was adequate, albeit with reduced performance during the second period. CONCLUSIONS: The 4C mortality risk score proved to be the more adequate predictor of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients in this Latin American population. The operational performance during both time periods remained similar, which shows its utility notwithstanding major changes, including vaccination, as the pandemic evolved.

Risk calculator of the clinical response to antihistamines in chronic urticaria: Development and internal validation.

Early detection of CSU patients with low probability of a clinical response with antihistamines could undergo prompt initiation of therapeutic alternatives. The aim of the study was to develop and internally validate a model for predicting the clinical response to antihistamines in adult patients with chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), who consult allergology and dermatology care centers. A cohort of CSU patients, recruited from four participating centers, were followed up for 12 months. Fifteen candidate variables were selected to be included in the multivariate model and then internal validation was done with bootstrap analysis with 1000 simulations. The outcome variable, clinical response to antihistamines, was evaluated with the UAS (Urticaria Activity Score) scale for seven days: "No response to antihistamines" was defined as UAS7 ≥7 points after at least one month with a maximum dose of antihistamines, while "Response to antiH1" was defined as UAS7 ≤6 points for at least three months with the use of antiH1. A total of 790 patients were included. Among the different models analyzed, the model that included age, angioedema, anxiety/depression, time with the disease, NSAIDs (Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) intolerance, and UAS7 baseline was considered the one with the best performance (accuracy 0.675, HL 0.87, AUC 0.727). The internal validation analyses demonstrated good consistency of the model. In conclusion, this prediction model identifies the probability of response to antihistamines in patients with chronic spontaneous urticaria. The model could be useful for a personalized therapeutic approach according to individual patient risk.

Cross-Cultural Validation of the TeamSTEPPS Teamwork Perceptions Questionnaire-Spanish in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Teamwork influences health care quality and patient safety. Yet, validated instruments for assessing teamwork in Colombia are lacking. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to validate the Spanish version of the TeamSTEPPS-Teamwork Perceptions Questionnaire (T-TPQ-S) for the Colombian health care context. METHODS: The T-TPQ-S underwent translation, cultural adaptation, and comprehensive psychometric testing, including reliability and confirmatory factor analyses and item difficulty and discrimination analyses. RESULTS: The T-TPQ-S demonstrated high internal consistency and excellent fit to the theoretical model. Item discrimination was within expected ranges, with response thresholds displaying an ascending order. The tool better differentiated subjects with low and high teamwork perceptions. CONCLUSIONS: The T-TPQ-S is an effective, reliable, and valid instrument for assessing teamwork perception among Colombian health care workers.

Predictive Factors of Hospital-Acquired Bacterial Infections in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify the predictive factors of hospital-acquired bacterial infections in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: This chart review study included patients with SLE who were hospitalized between 2009 and 2020 for reasons other than infection. The outcome was defined as any infection confirmed using any bacterial isolation method or diagnosed by treating physicians and required treatment with intravenous antibiotics. For statistical analysis, logistic regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: In total, 1678 patients (87.6% women) were included. The median age was 33 years (interquartile range, 24-47 years). The incidence of hospital-acquired infections was 13.9% (233 infections). Age, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score, Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics damage score, blood urea nitrogen and C-reactive protein levels, dosage of steroid in the previous month, recent use of 1 or more immunosuppressants, admission with a central venous catheter (or dialysis catheter), and use of central venous catheter or bladder catheter in the first 5 days were the predictive factors of nosocomial infections. CONCLUSION: The patients' infection risk profile should be assessed to accurately determine the risk-benefit balance of any therapeutic intervention, minimize exposure to steroids and immunosuppressants, and maintain a low threshold for the early diagnosis of infections. Further studies should assess whether the modification of some identified factors could reduce the incidence of nosocomial infections.

Demographic, Clinical, and Serological Characteristics of Antiphospholipid Syndrome Patients From the Anticoagulation Clinic of Hospital Universitario San Vicente Fundación, Medellín, Colombia.

INTRODUCTION: Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is an acquired autoimmune thrombophilia, characterized by vascular thrombosis or obstetric compromise, associated with the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. Large international studies have analyzed the clinical/serological behavior of the disease and in Colombia, there are few cohorts that have been evaluated. OBJECTIVE: The main objective is to characterize the patients with APS followed in the anticoagulation clinic of a tertiary care hospital and to determine the clinical manifestations and serological findings at diagnosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective descriptive study was carried out to evaluate patients with a presumptive and/or confirmed diagnosis of APS, according to modified Sapporo criteria, which fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria established by the authors. The information was collected from the review of medical records. RESULTS: We included 103 patients, with the female sex being the most prevalent (86.6%). 54.3% of the patients (n = 56) had a diagnosis of primary APS. Venous thrombotic events occurred in 87.3% (n = 90) of the patients, 34.9% (n = 36) had arterial thrombosis (n = 36), and 3.9% (n = 4) had catastrophic APS (n = 4). 15 cases of Obstetric APS were documented. Lupus coagulation inhibitor (LA) positivity was the most prevalent marker in 84% (n = 68) of cases. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical behavior in this cohort of patients is like that found in large international and national studies. Most patients have a probable diagnosis of APS, so they could overestimate the real prevalence and condition of long-term anticoagulant treatment.

Características epidemiológicas de la endocarditis infecciosa. Experiencia de seis años / Epidemiological characteristics of infective endocarditis. Six years of experience

Resumen Introducción: La endocarditis infecciosa continúa siendo una condición amenazante para la vida, que puede afectar cualquier órgano y sistema, con alta mortalidad, atribuible principalmente a Staphylococcus aureus. Implica un reto diagnóstico y terapéutico, que requiere un cuidado multidisciplinario. Objetivo: Describir las características clínicas y microbiológicas en pacientes con endocarditis infecciosa. Materiales y método: Estudio observacional descriptivo basado en la revisión de historias clínicas en un centro médico de referencia en Medellín, Colombia, incluyendo pacientes mayores de 18 años hospitalizados durante el periodo de enero de 2011 a febrero de 2017. Resultados: 130 pacientes, con edad promedio de 53 años (± 16). La hipertensión arterial y la enfermedad renal crónica fueron la comorbilidad más frecuente (55% y 38%, respectivamente). La fiebre fue el síntoma cardinal (90%). Predominó la endocarditis infecciosa de válvula nativa (85.7%), afectando principalmente la mitral (40%). El agente etiológico más frecuente fue S. aureus (sensible a oxacilina 44%), y se complicaron con embolia el 52.5% y con falla cardiaca el 30.8%. La mortalidad intrahospitalaria fue del 39.2%. Conclusiones: La endocarditis infecciosa tiene variadas manifestaciones clínicas, entre las que destacan la embolia sistémica y la falla cardiaca aguda, que condicionan una mortalidad elevada (mayor que la reportada en otros estudios). El aislamiento microbiológico más frecuente es el bacteriano, principalmente S. aureus, como lo muestra la tendencia global.

Abstract Background: Infective endocarditis continues to be a life-threatening condition, can involve every organ system, with high mortality, attributable mainly to Staphylococcus aureus. It implies a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge, which requires multidisciplinary care. Objective: To describe the clinical and microbiological characteristics in patients with infectious endocarditis. Materials and method: Descriptive observational study, based on the review of medical records in a reference medical center in Medellín, Colombia. Including patients over 18 years hospitalized during the period from January 2011 to February 2017. Results: 130 patients, with an average age of 53 years (± 16). Hypertension and chronic kidney disease was the most common comorbidity (55% and 38%, respectively). Fever was the cardinal symptom (90%). Native valve infective endocarditis predominated (85.7%), mainly affecting the mitral valve (40%). The most frequent etiologic agent was Staphylococcus aureus (oxacillin sensitive 44%), embolism was the main complication by 52.5% followed by heart failure (30.8%). In-hospital mortality was 39.2%. Conclusions: Infective endocarditis has varied clinical manifestations, including systemic embolism and acute heart failure, which lead to high mortality (higher than that reported in other studies). The most frequent microbiological isolation is bacterial, mainly Staphylococcus aureus, as shown by the global trend.

Expression of the inflammasome components and its relationship with cardiovascular risk markers in people living with HIV-1 / Expresión de los componentes del inflamasoma y su relación con los marcadores de riesgo cardiovascular en personas con infección por HIV-1

Introduction: HIV-1 infection induces a chronic inflammatory state in which inflammasomes participate. The increase in inflammatory parameters is higher in individuals with active viral replication (progressors) than in those with viral control (HIV-1 controllers). This process triggers metabolic alterations related to changes in the lipid profile, which could increase the risk of cardiovascular events, even in patients with antiretroviral therapy. Objective: To establish whether there was a correlation between the expression of inflammasome components and cardiovascular risk markers in HIV-1 controllers and progressors with or without antiretroviral therapy. Materials and methods: We studied 13 HIV-1 controllers and 40 progressors (19 without antiretroviral therapy and 31 with therapy) and evaluated in them classic markers of cardiovascular risk. Using RT-PCR we quantified the expression of inflammasome components (NLRP1, NLRP3, NLRC4, AIM2, ASC, IL-1ß, IL-18, and caspase-1), TLR2, TLR4, TGF-ß, and IL-10. Results: Progressors with antiretroviral therapy had an increased expression of TLR2, TLR4, and IL-18 compared to HIV-1 controllers. They also showed high levels of triglycerides and VLDL, which positively correlated with the expression of the inflammasome components NLRP1, NLRP3, NLRC4, AIM2, ASC, and caspase-1. Conclusion: Progressors receiving antiretroviral therapy exhibited an increased expression of the inflammasome components, which correlated with the levels of triglycerides and VLDL. This supports the role of inflammation in cardiovascular risk during HIV-1 infection.

Introducción. La infección por el HIV-1 induce un estado de inflamación crónico en el que participan los inflamasomas. El incremento de los parámetros inflamatorios es mayor en individuos con replicación viral activa que en aquellos con control de la replicación viral. Este proceso desencadena alteraciones metabólicas relacionadas con cambios en el perfil lipídico, lo cual podría incrementar el riesgo de eventos cardiovasculares, incluso en pacientes con terapia antirretroviral. Objetivo. Establecer si existe correlación entre la expresión de los componentes de los inflamasomas y los marcadores de riesgo cardiovascular en individuos con control de la replicación viral y en aquellos con replicación viral activa con terapia antirretroviral o sin ella. Materiales y métodos. Se estudiaron 13 individuos con control de la replicación viral y 40 con replicación viral activa (19 sin terapia antirretroviral y 31 con terapia). Se evaluaron los marcadores clásicos de riesgo cardiovascular y se cuantificó mediante RT-PCR la expresión de los componentes de los inflamasomas (NLRP1, NLRP3, NLRC4, AIM2, ASC, IL-1ß, IL-18 y caspasa-1), TLR2, TLR4, TGF-ß e IL-10. Resultados. Se observó que los pacientes con replicación viral activa y con terapia antirretroviral presentaron un incremento en la expresión de TLR2, TLR4 e IL-18, comparados con los controladores del HIV-1. Además, mostraron grandes valores de triglicéridos y lipoproteína de muy baja densidad (Very Low Density Lipopretein, VLDL), lo que se correlaciona positivamente con la expresión de los componentes de los inflamasomas NLRP1, NLRP3, NLRC4, AIM2, ASC y caspasa-1. Conclusión. El aumento en la expresión de los componentes de los inflamasomas en los individuos con replicación viral activa y con terapia antirretroviral se correlacionó con las concentraciones de triglicéridos y VLDL, lo que sugiere el papel de la activación inmunitaria y la terapia antirretroviral en el riesgo cardiovascular.

Expresión de los componentes del inflamasoma y su relación con los marcadores de riesgo cardiovascular en personas con infección por HIV-1 / Expression of the inflammasome components and its relationship with cardiovascular risk markers in people living with HIV-1

Introducción. La infección por el HIV-1 induce un estado de inflamación crónico en el que participan los inflamasomas. El incremento de los parámetros inflamatorios es mayor en individuos con replicación viral activa que en aquellos con control de la replicación viral. Este proceso desencadena alteraciones metabólicas relacionadas con cambios en el perfil lipídico, lo cual podría incrementar el riesgo de eventos cardiovasculares, incluso en pacientes con terapia antirretroviral. Objetivo. Establecer si existe correlación entre la expresión de los componentes de los inflamasomas y los marcadores de riesgo cardiovascular en individuos con control de la replicación viral y en aquellos con replicación viral activa con terapia antirretroviral o sin ella. Materiales y métodos. Se estudiaron 13 individuos con control de la replicación viral y 40 con replicación viral activa (19 sin terapia antirretroviral y 31 con terapia). Se evaluaron los marcadores clásicos de riesgo cardiovascular y se cuantificó mediante RT-PCR la expresión de los componentes de los inflamasomas (NLRP1, NLRP3, NLRC4, AIM2, ASC, IL-1ß, IL-18 y caspasa-1), TLR2, TLR4, TGF-ß e IL-10. Resultados. Se observó que los pacientes con replicación viral activa y con terapia antirretroviral presentaron un incremento en la expresión de TLR2, TLR4 e IL-18, comparados con los controladores del HIV-1. Además, mostraron grandes valores de triglicéridos y lipoproteína de muy baja densidad (Very Low Density Lipopretein, VLDL), lo que se correlaciona positivamente con la expresión de los componentes de los inflamasomas NLRP1, NLRP3, NLRC4, AIM2, ASC y caspasa-1. Conclusión. El aumento en la expresión de los componentes de los inflamasomas en los individuos con replicación viral activa y con terapia antirretroviral se correlacionó con las concentraciones de triglicéridos y VLDL, lo que sugiere el papel de la activación inmunitaria y la terapia antirretroviral en el riesgo cardiovascular.

Introduction: HIV-1 infection induces a chronic inflammatory state in which inflammasomes participate. The increase in inflammatory parameters is higher in individuals with active viral replication (progressors) than in those with viral control (HIV-1 controllers). This process triggers metabolic alterations related to changes in the lipid profile, which could increase the risk of cardiovascular events, even in patients with antiretroviral therapy. Objective: To establish whether there was a correlation between the expression of inflammasome components and cardiovascular risk markers in HIV-1 controllers and progressors with or without antiretroviral therapy. Materials and methods: We studied 13 HIV-1 controllers and 40 progressors (19 without antiretroviral therapy and 31 with therapy) and evaluated in them classic markers of cardiovascular risk. Using RT-PCR we quantified the expression of inflammasome components (NLRP1, NLRP3, NLRC4, AIM2, ASC, IL-1ß, IL-18, and caspase-1), TLR2, TLR4, TGF-ß, and IL-10. Results: Progressors with antiretroviral therapy had an increased expression of TLR2, TLR4, and IL-18 compared to HIV-1 controllers. They also showed high levels of triglycerides and VLDL, which positively correlated with the expression of the inflammasome components NLRP1, NLRP3, NLRC4, AIM2, ASC, and caspase-1. Conclusion: Progressors receiving antiretroviral therapy exhibited an increased expression of the inflammasome components, which correlated with the levels of triglycerides and VLDL. This supports the role of inflammation in cardiovascular risk during HIV-1 infection.

Improving the diagnosis and prognosis of sepsis according to the sources of infection.

INTRODUCTION: The clinical presentation of sepsis is heterogeneous and largely depends on the primary site of infection. Currently, factors associated with sepsis outcomes do not differentiate between infection sites. The objective of this investigation was to identify variables associated with risk of in-hospital mortality or intensive care unit (ICU) admission, according to infection sites. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of a multicentre prospective cohort of ED patients ≥18 years old from three university hospitals in Medellín, Colombia. Multivariable logistic regression models were performed to estimate the association of factors with in-hospital mortality or ICU admission according to five infection sites: urinary tract infection (UTI), community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), intra-abdominal infection, sepsis without evident source (primary) and other sites. RESULTS: The infection sites of the 1947 patients included were: UTI (n=586), CAP (n=585), intra-abdominal infection (n=213), primary (n=224) and other sites (n=339). In the multivariable model, the factors associated with in-hospital mortality or ICU admission varied by infection site: respiratory rate (RR), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and lactate for UTI; heart rate (HR), RR and temperature <38°C for CAP; Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), lactate and age <65 for intra-abdominal infection; SBP, GCS, lactate and temperature <38°C for primary and RR, GCS and temperature <38°C for other. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the diagnosis and prognosis of sepsis in emergency care should consider different clinical criteria, based on site of infection. Given the heterogeneity and interindividual variability of sepsis, a more individualised approach could help to direct treatment, monitor response and facilitate initial clinical decisions.

Molecular profiling of papillary thyroid carcinomas in healthcare workers exposed to low dose radiation at the workplace.

PURPOSE: Exposure to ionizing radiation, especially during childhood, is a well-established risk factor for thyroid cancer. The vast majority of radiation-induced cancers are papillary carcinomas (PTCs). These tumors typically have gene fusions in contrast to point mutations prevalent in sporadic PTCs. The aim of this study was to investigate the molecular profiles of PTC patients with workplace exposure to ionizing radiation. METHODS: A retrospective review of 543 patients who underwent surgery with diagnosis of PTC was performed. A cohort of nine healthcare specialists previously exposed to radiation sources during their professional practice was selected and analyzed using the ThyroSeq mutation panel for point mutations and gene fusions associated with thyroid cancer. RESULTS: The molecular analysis of surgical samples of PTCs was informative and revealed genetic alterations in five patients. BRAF V600E was found in four (67%) cases whereas RET/PTC1 fusion in one (17%) and one sample (17%) was wild type for point mutations and fusions. One sample completely failed molecular analysis while two others were negative for genes fusions but failed DNA analysis; these three samples were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: In this limited cohort of healthcare workers exposed to low dose of ionizing radiation at the workplace and developed PTC, the molecular profiling determined BRAF V600E point mutation as the most common event, arguing against the role of workplace radiation exposure in the etiology of these tumors.

Clindamycin Efficacy in Patients With Methicillin-Sensitive Staphylococcus aureus in a Fourth-Level Hospital in the City of Medellín.

BACKGROUND:  The antibiotic of choice for methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) bacteremia is antistaphylococcal penicillins, such as oxacillin, but cefazolin has also risen as an equally effective alternative. Murine models have suggested that clindamycin is a therapeutic alternative for Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB). METHODS:  In this retrospective cohort study, patients from the Hospital Universitario San Vicente Fundación (HUSVF) in Medellín, Colombia, were recruited from January 2013 and December 2019. Patients with positive blood culture for MSSA, with at least one follow-up blood culture, and those with more than 72 hours of parenteral antibiotic therapy for SAB were selected. The main objective was to determine the efficacy of clindamycin compared to other antibiotics to achieve a microbiologic cure. Secondary results included in-hospital mortality and hospital stay. RESULTS:  A total of 486 patients were included (clindamycin = 50 and other anti-MSSA = 436). The patients in the clindamycin group had a lower rate of microbiological cure (n = 41 [84%]) compared to other antibiotics (n = 367 [84%]) (OR 1.08 IC 95% 0.74-1.58). In secondary outcomes, no statistically significant differences were observed in the in-hospital mortality. The main source of SAB was a central or peripheral catheter (58%). CONCLUSIONS:  Our study found no differences in the rate of microbiological cure, in-hospital mortality, and hospital stay on the clindamycin group compared to other anti-MSSA antibiotics. However, in patients with metastatic complications, the rate of microbiological cure is reduced, and the in-hospital mortality is higher in patients with more severe disease.

Cardio-oncology Clinical Assessment and Screening in Patients Undergoing High Toxicity Chemotherapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical characteristics and cardio-oncological assessment in patients undertaking highly toxic chemotherapy and/or chest radiotherapy in a high-complexity hospital. METHODS: A single-center retrospective cohort study was carried out between January 1st, 2017 and December 31st, 2019. The medical records of patients with solid or hematological neoplasms were reviewed. Descriptive information was obtained on demographic characteristics, chemotherapeutic agents, pre-chemotherapy cardiovascular (CV) evaluation, and CV outcomes. The risk of complications was assessed using the Mayo Clinic risk score. RESULTS: A total of 499 patients were included, the most common neoplasm was non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (21.6%), followed by breast cancer (19.4%). A very high risk of cardiotoxicity was present in 44.1% and 90% were not evaluated by cardiology. Pre-chemotherapy echocardiography was obtained in 65%, but only 19.4% underwent echocardiographic control after finishing chemotherapy. The most frequent CV outcomes were chemotherapy-related systolic dysfunction (4.4%) and rhythm disturbances (2.8%), with atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter being the most frequent arrhythmias. CONCLUSION: Despite the recognized CV toxicity of chemotherapeutic drugs, the majority of patients receiving highly toxic regimens at high risk of CV complications are not previously evaluated by a cardiologist and the CV workup was not routinely used in our study. The implementation of cardio-oncology programs will facilitate the identification of high-risk patients, aiming to detect and treat complications early.

Community-acquired pneumonia: comparison of three mortality prediction scores in the emergency department / Neumonía adquirida en la comunidad: comparación de tres puntuaciones de predicción de mortalidad en el servicio de urgencias

Abstract Background: qSOFA is a score to identify patients with suspected infection and risk of complications. Its criteria are like those evaluated in prognostic scores for pneumonia (CRB-65 - CURB-65), but it is not clear which is best for predicting mortality and admission to the ICU. Objective: Compare three scores (CURB-65, CRB-65 and qSOFA) to determine the best tool to identify emergency department patients with pneumonia at increased risk of mortality or intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Methods: Secondary analysis of three prospective cohorts of patients hospitalized with diagnosis of pneumonia in five Colombian hospitals. Validation and comparison of the score´s accuracies were performed by means of discrimination and calibration measures. Results: Cohorts 1, 2 and 3 included 158, 745 and 207 patients, with mortality rates of 32.3%, 17.2% and 18.4%, and admission to ICU was required for 52.5%, 43.5% and 25.6%, respectively. The best AUC-ROC for mortality was for CURB-65 in cohort 3 (AUC-ROC=0.67). The calibration was adequate (p>0.05) for the three scores. Conclusions: None of these scores proved to be an appropriate predictor for mortality and admission to the ICU. Furthermore, the CRB 65 exhibited the lowest discriminative ability.

RESUMEN Introducción: el qSOFA es un nuevo puntaje propuesto para ayudar a identificar pacientes con sospecha de infección y con alta probabilidad de desarrollar complicaciones graves. Los criterios del qSOFA son similares a los evaluados en los puntajes de pronóstico usados tradicionalmente en neumonía (CRB-65 y CURB-65), pero no está claro cuál es mejor para predecir la mortalidad y la admisión a la UCI en pacientes con neumonía en el servicio de urgencias Objetivo: comparar tres puntajes (CURB-65, CRB-65 y qSOFA) para determinar la mejor herramienta para identificar en servicios de urgencias a los pacientes con neumonía con mayor riesgo de mortalidad o ingreso en la unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI). Métodos: análisis secundario de datos de tres estudios de cohorte prospectivos con pacientes atendidos por urgencias con diagnóstico de neumonía en 5 hospitales de Colombia. Se realizó validación y comparación de la exactitud de los puntajes por medio de medidas de discriminación y de calibración. Resultados: las cohortes 1, 2 y 3 incluyeron 158, 745 y 207 pacientes, con mortalidad de 32.3%, 17.2% y 18.4%, respectivamente. Se requirió la admisión a la UCI para 52.5%, 43.5% y 25.6% pacientes3, respectivamente. La mejor AUC-ROC para mortalidad fue para CURB-65 en la cohorte 3 (AUC-ROC= 0.67). La calibración de los modelos fue adecuada para los tres puntajes (P>0.05). Conclusiones: Ninguno de estos puntajes demostró ser un predictor adecuado de mortalidad e ingreso en UCI. Además, el CRB 65 mostró la capacidad discriminativa más baja.

Validation of VIRSTA and Predicting Risk of Endocarditis Using a Clinical Tool (PREDICT) Scores to Determine the Priority of Echocardiography in Patients With Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia.

BACKGROUND: Infective endocarditis (IE) secondary to Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) has high morbidity and mortality. The systematic use of echocardiography in SAB is controversial. We aimed to validate VIRSTA and Predicting Risk of Endocarditis Using a Clinical Tool (PREDICT) scores for predicting the risk of IE in Colombian patients with SAB and, consequently, to determine the need for echocardiography. METHODS: Cohort of patients hospitalized with SAB in 2 high complexity institutions in Medellin, Colombia, between 2012 and 2018. The diagnosis of IE was established based on the modified Duke criteria. The VIRSTA and PREDICT scores were calculated from the clinical records, and their operational performance was calculated. RESULTS: The final analysis included 922 patients, 62 (6.7%) of whom were diagnosed with IE. The frequency of IE in patients with a negative VIRSTA scale was 0.44% (2/454). The frequency of IE in patients with a negative PREDICT scale on day 5 was 4.8% (30/622). The sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) of the VIRSTA scale was 96.7% and 99.5%, respectively. For the PREDICT scale on day 5, the sensitivity and NPV were 51.6% and 95.1%, respectively. The discrimination, given by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, was 0.86 for VIRSTA and 0.64 for PREDICT. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with negative VIRSTA, screening echocardiography may be unnecessary because of the low frequency of IE. In PREDICT-negative patients, despite the low frequency of IE, it is not safe to omit echocardiography.

Biomarkers as a Prognostic Factor in COPD Exacerbation: A Cohort Study.

The acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) are one of the main causes of hospitalization and morbimortality in the adult population. There are not many tools available to predict the clinical course of these patients during exacerbations. Our goal was to estimate the clinical utility of C Reactive Protein (CRP), Mean Platelet Volume (MPV), eosinophil count and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as in-hospital prognostic factors in patients with AECOPD. A prospective cohort study was conducted in patients who consulted three reference hospitals in the city of Medellín for AECOPD and who required hospitalization between 2017 and 2020. A multivariate analysis was performed to estimate the effect of biomarkers in the two primary outcomes: the composite outcome of in-hospital death and/or admission to the ICU and hospital length-of-stay. A total of 610 patients with a median age of 74 years were included; 15% were admitted to the ICU and 3.9% died in the hospital. In the multivariate analysis adjusted for confounding variables, the only marker significantly associated with the risk of dying or being admitted to the ICU was the NLR > 5 (OR: 3; CI95%: 1.5; 6). Similarly, the NLR > 5 was also associated to a lower probability of being discharged alive from the institution (SHR: 0.73; CI95%: 0.57; 0.94) and, therefore, a longer hospital stay. It was found that a neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio greater than 5 is a strong predictor of mortality or ICU admissions and a longer hospital stay in patients hospitalized with AECOPD.

Cytomegalovirus Disease, Short-Term Cardiovascular Events and Graft Survival in a Cohort of Kidney Transplant Recipients With High CMV IgG Seroprevalence.

INTRODUCTION: Both cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and CMV disease have been linked with several long-term indirect effects in kidney transplant recipients. Research questions: We conducted a retrospective study to assess the association between cytomegalovirus disease and risks of death, shortterm cardiovascular events and graft loss in a cohort of renal transplant recipients. DESIGN: The associations between CMV disease and death and cardiovascular events were determined using Cox regression models, while the association between viral disease and graft loss risk was analyzed through a competing risks regression according to the Fine and Gray method. Death with a functioning graft was considered as a competing risk event. RESULTS: A total of 865 consecutive renal transplant recipients were included. The prevalence of seropositive donor/seronegative recipient (D+/R-) group was 89.9% with the remaining patients classified as seropositive recipient (R+). After median follow-up time of 24.4 months, CMV disease was not a risk factor for all-causes mortality (HR = 1.75; 95% CI 0.94-3.25), early cardiovascular events (HR = 0.54; 95% CI 0.16-1.82) or graft loss (subhazard ratio [the HR adjusted for competing risk of death with functioning graft] = 0.99; 95% CI 0.53-1.84). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort with high prevalence of CMV IgG antibodies, we found no association between cytomegalovirus disease and risk of death or graft loss. The relationship between CMV and cardiovascular disease remains to be unraveled and probably corresponds to a multifactorial phenomenon involving individual risk factors and the immune response to infection rather than the virus effect itself.

Predictive models of infection in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: A systematic literature review.

INTRODUCTION: Having reliable predictive models of prognosis/the risk of infection in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients would allow this problem to be addressed on an individual basis to study and implement possible preventive or therapeutic interventions. OBJECTIVE: To identify and analyze all predictive models of prognosis/the risk of infection in patients with SLE that exist in medical literature. METHODS: A structured search in PubMed, Embase, and LILACS databases was carried out until May 9, 2020. In addition, a search for abstracts in the American Congress of Rheumatology (ACR) and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) annual meetings' archives published over the past eight years was also conducted. Studies on developing, validating or updating predictive prognostic models carried out in patients with SLE, in which the outcome to be predicted is some type of infection, that were generated in any clinical context and with any time horizon were included. There were no restrictions on language, date, or status of the publication. To carry out the systematic review, the CHARMS (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) guideline recommendations were followed. The PROBAST tool (A Tool to Assess the Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies) was used to assess the risk of bias and the applicability of each model. RESULTS: We identified four models of infection prognosis in patients with SLE. Mostly, there were very few events per candidate predictor. In addition, to construct the models, an initial selection was made based on univariate analyses with no contraction of the estimated coefficients being carried out. This suggests that the proposed models have a high probability of overfitting and being optimistic. CONCLUSIONS: To date, very few prognostic models have been published on the infection of SLE patients. These models are very heterogeneous and are rated as having a high risk of bias and methodological weaknesses. Despite the widespread recognition of the frequency and severity of infections in SLE patients, there is no reliable predictive prognostic model that facilitates the study and implementation of personalized preventive or therapeutic measures.Protocol registration number: PROSPERO CRD42020171638.

Community-acquired pneumonia: comparison of three mortality prediction scores in the emergency department.

Background: qSOFA is a score to identify patients with suspected infection and risk of complications. Its criteria are like those evaluated in prognostic scores for pneumonia (CRB-65 - CURB-65), but it is not clear which is best for predicting mortality and admission to the ICU. Objective: Compare three scores (CURB-65, CRB-65 and qSOFA) to determine the best tool to identify emergency department patients with pneumonia at increased risk of mortality or intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Methods: Secondary analysis of three prospective cohorts of patients hospitalized with diagnosis of pneumonia in five Colombian hospitals. Validation and comparison of the score´s accuracies were performed by means of discrimination and calibration measures. Results: Cohorts 1, 2 and 3 included 158, 745 and 207 patients, with mortality rates of 32.3%, 17.2% and 18.4%, and admission to ICU was required for 52.5%, 43.5% and 25.6%, respectively. The best AUC-ROC for mortality was for CURB-65 in cohort 3 (AUC-ROC=0.67). The calibration was adequate (p>0.05) for the three scores. Conclusions: None of these scores proved to be an appropriate predictor for mortality and admission to the ICU. Furthermore, the CRB 65 exhibited the lowest discriminative ability.

Introducción: el qSOFA es un nuevo puntaje propuesto para ayudar a identificar pacientes con sospecha de infección y con alta probabilidad de desarrollar complicaciones graves. Los criterios del qSOFA son similares a los evaluados en los puntajes de pronóstico usados tradicionalmente en neumonía (CRB-65 y CURB-65), pero no está claro cuál es mejor para predecir la mortalidad y la admisión a la UCI en pacientes con neumonía en el servicio de urgencias. Objetivo: comparar tres puntajes (CURB-65, CRB-65 y qSOFA) para determinar la mejor herramienta para identificar en servicios de urgencias a los pacientes con neumonía con mayor riesgo de mortalidad o ingreso en la unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI). Métodos: análisis secundario de datos de tres estudios de cohorte prospectivos con pacientes atendidos por urgencias con diagnóstico de neumonía en 5 hospitales de Colombia. Se realizó validación y comparación de la exactitud de los puntajes por medio de medidas de discriminación y de calibración. Resultados: las cohortes 1, 2 y 3 incluyeron 158, 745 y 207 pacientes, con mortalidad de 32.3%, 17.2% y 18.4%, respectivamente. Se requirió la admisión a la UCI para 52.5%, 43.5% y 25.6% pacientes3, respectivamente. La mejor AUC-ROC para mortalidad fue para CURB-65 en la cohorte 3 (AUC-ROC= 0.67). La calibración de los modelos fue adecuada para los tres puntajes (P>0.05). Conclusiones: Ninguno de estos puntajes demostró ser un predictor adecuado de mortalidad e ingreso en UCI. Además, el CRB 65 mostró la capacidad discriminativa más baja.

Factors associated with active tuberculosis in Colombian patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: a case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors associated with active tuberculosis (TB) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: We performed a retrospective case-control study in two tertiary care teaching hospitals in Medellín, Colombia. From January 2007 to December 2017, a total of 268 patients with SLE were included. SLE patients with TB (cases) were matched 1:3 with SLE patients without TB (controls) by disease duration and the date of the hospitalization in which the diagnosis of TB was made (index date of cases) to the nearest available rheumatology hospitalization in the matched controls (± 2 years). Conditional univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: Sixty-seven cases and 201 controls were assessed. Only pulmonary TB occurred in 46.3%, only extrapulmonary TB in 16.4% and disseminated TB in 37.3% of cases. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that lymphopenia (OR, 2.91; 95% CI 1.41-6.03; P = 0.004), 12-month cumulative glucocorticoid dose ≥ 1830 mg (OR, 2.74; 95% CI 1.26-5.98; P = 0.011), and having been treated with ≥ 2 immunosuppressants during the last 12 months (OR, 2.81; 95% CI 1.16-6.82; P = 0.022) were associated with TB after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, disease duration, disease activity, and comorbidity index. A trend towards an association of kidney transplantation with TB was also found (OR, 3.77; 95% CI 0.99-14.30; P = 0.051). CONCLUSION: Among SLE patients, cumulative glucocorticoid dose, lymphopenia, and the use of ≥ 2 immunosuppressants during the last 12 months were associated with active TB infection. Key Points • Among SLE patients, a cumulative dose of glucocorticoids equivalent to 5 mg/day of prednisone during the last 12 months is independently associated with the development of TB. • The use of two or more immunosuppressants during the last 12 months is also a risk factor for TB infection development is SLE patients. • Lymphopenia is predominant in SLE patients with TB, being especially profound in those with disseminated TB. • Renal transplant recipients with SLE also have an elevated risk of TB.