Towards a dynamical understanding of microstate analysis of M/EEG data.

One of the interesting aspects of EEG data is the presence of temporally stable and spatially coherent patterns of activity, known as microstates, which have been linked to various cognitive and clinical phenomena. However, there is still no general agreement on the interpretation of microstate analysis. Various clustering algorithms have been used for microstate computation, and multiple studies suggest that the microstate time series may provide insight into the neural activity of the brain in the resting state. This study addresses two gaps in the literature. Firstly, by applying several state-of-the-art microstate algorithms to a large dataset of EEG recordings, we aim to characterise and describe various microstate algorithms. We demonstrate and discuss why the three "classically" used algorithms ((T)AAHC and modified K-Means) yield virtually the same results, while HMM algorithm generates the most dissimilar results. Secondly, we aim to test the hypothesis that dynamical microstate properties might be, to a large extent, determined by the linear characteristics of the underlying EEG signal, in particular, by the cross-covariance and autocorrelation structure of the EEG data. To this end, we generated a Fourier transform surrogate of the EEG signal to compare microstate properties. Here, we found that these are largely similar, thus hinting that microstate properties depend to a very high degree on the linear covariance and autocorrelation structure of the underlying EEG data. Finally, we treated the EEG data as a vector autoregression process, estimated its parameters, and generated surrogate stationary and linear data from fitted VAR. We observed that such a linear model generates microstates highly comparable to those estimated from real EEG data, supporting the conclusion that a linear EEG model can help with the methodological and clinical interpretation of both static and dynamic human brain microstate properties.

Computational modeling allows unsupervised classification of epileptic brain states across species.

Current advances in epilepsy treatment aim to personalize and responsively adjust treatment parameters to overcome patient heterogeneity in treatment efficiency. For tailoring treatment to the individual and the current brain state, tools are required that help to identify the patient- and time-point-specific parameters of epilepsy. Computational modeling has long proven its utility in gaining mechanistic insight. Recently, the technique has been introduced as a diagnostic tool to predict individual treatment outcomes. In this article, the Wendling model, an established computational model of epilepsy dynamics, is used to automatically classify epileptic brain states in intracranial EEG from patients (n = 4) and local field potential recordings from in vitro rat data (high-potassium model of epilepsy, n = 3). Five-second signal segments are classified to four types of brain state in epilepsy (interictal, preonset, onset, ictal) by comparing a vector of signal features for each data segment to four prototypical feature vectors obtained by Wendling model simulations. The classification result is validated against expert visual assessment. Model-driven brain state classification achieved a classification performance significantly above chance level (mean sensitivity 0.99 on model data, 0.77 on rat data, 0.56 on human data in a four-way classification task). Model-driven prototypes showed similarity with data-driven prototypes, which we obtained from real data for rats and humans. Our results indicate similar electrophysiological patterns of epileptic states in the human brain and the animal model that are well-reproduced by the computational model, and captured by a key set of signal features, enabling fully automated and unsupervised brain state classification in epilepsy.

Data processing pipeline for cardiogenic shock prediction using machine learning.

Introduction: Recent advances in machine learning provide new possibilities to process and analyse observational patient data to predict patient outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a data processing pipeline for cardiogenic shock (CS) prediction from the MIMIC III database of intensive cardiac care unit patients with acute coronary syndrome. The ability to identify high-risk patients could possibly allow taking pre-emptive measures and thus prevent the development of CS. Methods: We mainly focus on techniques for the imputation of missing data by generating a pipeline for imputation and comparing the performance of various multivariate imputation algorithms, including k-nearest neighbours, two singular value decomposition (SVD)-based methods, and Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations. After imputation, we select the final subjects and variables from the imputed dataset and showcase the performance of the gradient-boosted framework that uses a tree-based classifier for cardiogenic shock prediction. Results: We achieved good classification performance thanks to data cleaning and imputation (cross-validated mean area under the curve 0.805) without hyperparameter optimization. Conclusion: We believe our pre-processing pipeline would prove helpful also for other classification and regression experiments.

Plasmatic apelin shows a promising potential as a screening biomarker for atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVES: Purpose of this study was to evaluate properties of apelin, a peptide detectable in peripheral blood, for atrial fibrillation (AF) detection in a diverse population of patients covering a broad spectrum from healthy to polymorbid patients. BACKGROUND: AF is the most common cardiac arrhythmia with constantly increasing incidence and prevalence. Currently available diagnostic tools do not provide sufficient detection rate. Large proportion of patients with AF remains undiagnosed and the possibility of screening at-risk groups would be significantly beneficial. METHODS: We designed this study as a multi-centre retrospective study. Study population included 183 patients. 64 in non-AF and 119 in AF group. RESULTS: Apelin plasma concentration was significantly lower in AF group compared to non-AF group (p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis of apelin as a predictor of AF scored area under the curve of 0.79, sensitivity = 0.941 and specificity = 0.578. Multivariate analysis using logistic regression adjusted for age, BMI, apelin, dilated LV, dilated LA, arterial hypertension, and gender showed only apelin and age to be statistically significant contributors for AF. CONCLUSION: Apelin might be a promising biomarker for detecting AF in our study population. These results suggest promising potential of apelin as a screening biomarker for AF (Tab. 2, Fig. 1, Ref. 46). Text in PDF www.elis.sk Keywords: biomarker, apelin, arrhythmia, atrial fibrillation.

Cross-Frequency Slow Oscillation-Spindle Coupling in a Biophysically Realistic Thalamocortical Neural Mass Model.

Sleep manifests itself by the spontaneous emergence of characteristic oscillatory rhythms, which often time-lock and are implicated in memory formation. Here, we analyze a neural mass model of the thalamocortical loop in which the cortical node can generate slow oscillations (approximately 1 Hz) while its thalamic component can generate fast sleep spindles of σ-band activity (12-15 Hz). We study the dynamics for different coupling strengths between the thalamic and cortical nodes, for different conductance values of the thalamic node's potassium leak and hyperpolarization-activated cation-nonselective currents, and for different parameter regimes of the cortical node. The latter are listed as follows: (1) a low activity (DOWN) state with noise-induced, transient excursions into a high activity (UP) state, (2) an adaptation induced slow oscillation limit cycle with alternating UP and DOWN states, and (3) a high activity (UP) state with noise-induced, transient excursions into the low activity (DOWN) state. During UP states, thalamic spindling is abolished or reduced. During DOWN states, the thalamic node generates sleep spindles, which in turn can cause DOWN to UP transitions in the cortical node. Consequently, this leads to spindle-induced UP state transitions in parameter regime (1), thalamic spindles induced in some but not all DOWN states in regime (2), and thalamic spindles following UP to DOWN transitions in regime (3). The spindle-induced σ-band activity in the cortical node, however, is typically the strongest during the UP state, which follows a DOWN state "window of opportunity" for spindling. When the cortical node is parametrized in regime (3), the model well explains the interactions between slow oscillations and sleep spindles observed experimentally during Non-Rapid Eye Movement sleep. The model is computationally efficient and can be integrated into large-scale modeling frameworks to study spatial aspects like sleep wave propagation.

Association Between Apelin and Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With High Risk of Ischemic Stroke.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high risk of stroke preventable by timely initiation of anticoagulation. Currently available screening tools based on ECG are not optimal due to inconvenience and high costs. Aim of this study was to study the diagnostic value of apelin for AF in patients with high risk of stroke. Methods: We designed a multicenter, matched-cohort study. The population consisted of three study groups: a healthy control group (34 patients) and two matched groups of 60 patients with high risk of stroke (AF and non-AF group). Apelin levels were examined from peripheral blood. Results: Apelin was significantly lower in AF group compared to non-AF group (0.694 ± 0.148 vs. 0.975 ± 0.458 ng/ml, p = 0.001) and control group (0.982 ± 0.060 ng/ml, p < 0.001), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of apelin as a predictor of AF scored area under the curve (AUC) of 0.658. Apelin's concentration of 0.969 [ng/ml] had sensitivity = 0.966 and specificity = 0.467. Logistic regression based on manual feature selection showed that only apelin and NT-proBNP were independent predictors of AF. Logistic regression based on selection from bivariate analysis showed that only apelin was an independent predictor of AF. A logistic regression model using repeated stratified K-Fold cross-validation strategy scored an AUC of 0.725 ± 0.131. Conclusions: Our results suggest that apelin might be used to rule out AF in patients with high risk of stroke.

Comparison of six methods for the detection of causality in a bivariate time series.

In this comparative study, six causality detection methods were compared, namely, the Granger vector autoregressive test, the extended Granger test, the kernel version of the Granger test, the conditional mutual information (transfer entropy), the evaluation of cross mappings between state spaces, and an assessment of predictability improvement due to the use of mixed predictions. Seven test data sets were analyzed: linear coupling of autoregressive models, a unidirectional connection of two Hénon systems, a unidirectional connection of chaotic systems of Rössler and Lorenz type and of two different Rössler systems, an example of bidirectionally connected two-species systems, a fishery model as an example of two correlated observables without a causal relationship, and an example of mediated causality. We tested not only 20000 points long clean time series but also noisy and short variants of the data. The standard and the extended Granger tests worked only for the autoregressive models. The remaining methods were more successful with the more complex test examples, although they differed considerably in their capability to reveal the presence and the direction of coupling and to distinguish causality from mere correlation.

Detection of coupling delay: A problem not yet solved.

Nonparametric detection of coupling delay in unidirectionally and bidirectionally coupled nonlinear dynamical systems is examined. Both continuous and discrete-time systems are considered. Two methods of detection are assessed-the method based on conditional mutual information-the CMI method (also known as the transfer entropy method) and the method of convergent cross mapping-the CCM method. Computer simulations show that neither method is generally reliable in the detection of coupling delays. For continuous-time chaotic systems, the CMI method appears to be more sensitive and applicable in a broader range of coupling parameters than the CCM method. In the case of tested discrete-time dynamical systems, the CCM method has been found to be more sensitive, while the CMI method required much stronger coupling strength in order to bring correct results. However, when studied systems contain a strong oscillatory component in their dynamics, results of both methods become ambiguous. The presented study suggests that results of the tested algorithms should be interpreted with utmost care and the nonparametric detection of coupling delay, in general, is a problem not yet solved.

Smooth information flow in temperature climate network reflects mass transport.

A directed climate network is constructed by Granger causality analysis of air temperature time series from a regular grid covering the whole Earth. Using winner-takes-all network thresholding approach, a structure of a smooth information flow is revealed, hidden to previous studies. The relevance of this observation is confirmed by comparison with the air mass transfer defined by the wind field. Their close relation illustrates that although the information transferred due to the causal influence is not a physical quantity, the information transfer is tied to the transfer of mass and energy.

Small-world bias of correlation networks: From brain to climate.

Complex systems are commonly characterized by the properties of their graph representation. Dynamical complex systems are then typically represented by a graph of temporal dependencies between time series of state variables of their subunits. It has been shown recently that graphs constructed in this way tend to have relatively clustered structure, potentially leading to spurious detection of small-world properties even in the case of systems with no or randomly distributed true interactions. However, the strength of this bias depends heavily on a range of parameters and its relevance for real-world data has not yet been established. In this work, we assess the relevance of the bias using two examples of multivariate time series recorded in natural complex systems. The first is the time series of local brain activity as measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging in resting healthy human subjects, and the second is the time series of average monthly surface air temperature coming from a large reanalysis of climatological data over the period 1948-2012. In both cases, the clustering in the thresholded correlation graph is substantially higher compared with a realization of a density-matched random graph, while the shortest paths are relatively short, showing thus distinguishing features of small-world structure. However, comparable or even stronger small-world properties were reproduced in correlation graphs of model processes with randomly scrambled interconnections. This suggests that the small-world properties of the correlation matrices of these real-world systems indeed do not reflect genuinely the properties of the underlying interaction structure, but rather result from the inherent properties of correlation matrix.

Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems.

Identifying regions important for spreading and mediating perturbations is crucial to assess the susceptibilities of spatio-temporal complex systems such as the Earth's climate to volcanic eruptions, extreme events or geoengineering. Here a data-driven approach is introduced based on a dimension reduction, causal reconstruction, and novel network measures based on causal effect theory that go beyond standard complex network tools by distinguishing direct from indirect pathways. Applied to a data set of atmospheric dynamics, the method identifies several strongly uplifting regions acting as major gateways of perturbations spreading in the atmosphere. Additionally, the method provides a stricter statistical approach to pathways of atmospheric teleconnections, yielding insights into the Pacific-Indian Ocean interaction relevant for monsoonal dynamics. Also for neuroscience or power grids, the novel causal interaction perspective provides a complementary approach to simulations or experiments for understanding the functioning of complex spatio-temporal systems with potential applications in increasing their resilience to shocks or extreme events.