Modelling the dispersion of particle number concentrations in the West Midlands, UK using the ADMS-Urban model.

Ultrafine particles (UFPs) are respirable particles with a diameter less than 100 nm, which some studies have associated with adverse effects upon health. UFPs are currently not regulated as the health evidence is insufficient and very few observational data are available in most cities. The 2021 WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines highlighted the pressing issue of UFPs and provided a good practice statement for UFPs, which recommends that more measurement and modelling studies are implemented in future. Particle number concentrations (PNC) are the most common metric for UFPs as this fraction normally dominates the total ambient PNC in urban environments. This study simulates the dispersion of particle number concentrations in the West Midlands (a metropolitan area), UK using the local scale ADMS-Urban model, which is an advanced quasi-Gaussian plume dispersion modelling system. ADMS-Urban implements a physics-based approach to represent the characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer and has been widely used in the dispersion modelling of air pollutants. It can represent a variety of source types (such as road and grid emissions) occurring in urban environments and requires a range of input data. Particle number was used as a passive scalar, with no inclusion of aerosol microphysics within the model, as a first implementation in the ADMS-Urban model for the West Midlands, UK. Evaluation was conducted by comparing the modelled (from a receptor run) and measured data at the Birmingham Air Quality Supersite. Overall, the model performed well although there was a slight underestimation for PNC. Based on the modelling output from a contour run, PNC maps at a variety of spatial scales (i.e. street scale, ward level and local authority level) and temporal resolutions (i.e. annual, 24-hour, and 1-hour) were generated. PNC mapping could be linked to local population and health data for potential epidemiological studies.

Impacts of net zero policies on air quality in a metropolitan area of the United Kingdom: Towards world health organization air quality guidelines.

Climate change and air pollution are closely interlinked since carbon dioxide and air pollutants are co-emitted from fossil fuel combustion. Net Zero (NZ) policies aiming to reduce carbon emissions will likely bring co-benefits in air quality and associated health. However, it is unknown whether regional NZ policies alone will be sufficient to reduce air pollutant levels to meet the latest 2021 World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines. Here, we carried out high resolution air quality modelling for in the West Midlands region, a typical metropolitan area in the UK, to quantify the effects of different NZ policies on air quality. Results show that NZ policies will significantly improve air quality in the West Midlands, with up to 6 µg m-3 (21%) reduction in annual mean NO2 (mostly through the electrification of vehicle fleet, EV) and up to 1.4 µg m-3 (12%) reduction in annual mean PM2.5 projected for 2030 relative to levels under a "business as usual" (BAU) scenario. Under BAU, 2030 PM2.5 concentrations in most wards would be below 10 µg m-3 whilst under the Net Zero scenario, those in all wards would be below 10 µg m-3. This means that the ward averages in the West Midlands would meet the UK PM2.5 of 10 µg m-3target a decade early under the Net Zero scenario. However, no ward-level-averaged annual mean PM2.concentrations meet the 2021 WHO Air Quality guideline level of 5 µg m-3 under any scenario. Similarly for NO2 only 18 wards (8% of the region's population) are predicted to have NO2 concentrations below the 2021 WHO guideline level (10 µg m-3). Decarbonisation policies linked to Net Zero deliver substantial regional air quality benefits, but are not in isolation sufficient to deliver clean air with air pollutant levels low enough to meet the 2021 WHO guidelines.