The Incidence of Immune Mediated Inflammatory Diseases Following COVID-19: a Matched Cohort Study in UK Primary Care

ObjectiveTo assess whether there is an association between Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) infection and the incidence of immune mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs). DesignMatched cohort study. SettingPrimary care electronic health record data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. ParticipantsThe exposed cohort included 458,147 adults aged 18 years and older with a confirmed SARS CoV-2 infection by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or lateral flow antigen test, and no prior diagnosis of IMIDs. They were matched on age, sex, and general practice to 1,818,929 adults in the unexposed cohort with no diagnosis of confirmed or suspected SARS CoV-2 infection and no prior diagnosis of IMIDs. Main Outcome MeasuresThe primary outcome measure was a composite of the incidence of any of the following IMIDs: 1. autoimmune thyroiditis, 2. coeliac disease, 3. inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), 4. myasthenia gravis, 5. pernicious anaemia, 6. psoriasis, 7. rheumatoid arthritis (RA), 8. Sjogrens syndrome, 9. systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), 10. type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), and 11. vitiligo. The secondary outcomes were the incidence of each of these conditions separately. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the primary and secondary outcomes comparing the exposed to the unexposed cohorts, and adjusting for age, sex, ethnic group, smoking status, body mass index, relevant infections, and medications. Results537 patients (0.11%) in the exposed cohort developed an IMID during the follow-up period over 0.29 person years, giving a crude incidence rate of 3.54 per 1000 person years. This was compared 1723 patients (0.09%) over 0.29 person years in the unexposed cohort, with an incidence rate of 2.82 per 1000 person years. Patients in the exposed cohort had a 22% relative increased risk of developing an IMID, compared to the unexposed cohort (aHR 1.22, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.34). The incidence of three IMIDs were statistically significantly associated with SARS CoV-2 infection. These were T1DM (aHR 1.56, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.23), IBD (1.52, 1.23 to 1.88), and psoriasis (1.23, 1.05 to 1.42). ConclusionsSARS CoV-2 was associated with an increased incidence of IMIDs including T1DM, IBD and psoriasis. Further research is needed to replicate these findings in other populations and to measure autoantibody profiles in cohorts of individuals with COVID-19, including Long COVID and matched controls. Summary Box What is already known on this topicO_LIA subsection of the population who tested positive for SARS CoV-2 is suffering from post-Covid-19 condition or long COVID. C_LIO_LIPreliminary findings, such as case reports of post-COVID-19 IMIDs, increased autoantibodies in COVID-19 patients, and molecular mimicry of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have given rise to the theory that long COVID may be due in part to a deranged immune response. C_LI What this study addsO_LICOVID-19 exposure was associated with a 22% relative increase in the risk of developing certain IMIDs, including type 1 diabetes mellitus, inflammatory bowel disease, and psoriasis. C_LIO_LIThese findings provide further support to the hypothesis that a subgroup of Long Covid may be caused by immune mediated mechanisms. C_LI

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of Long-COVID and association with one-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BackgroundThere are currently no effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions for Long-COVID. To identify potential therapeutic targets, we focussed on previously described four recovery clusters five months after hospital discharge, their underlying inflammatory profiles and relationship with clinical outcomes at one year. MethodsPHOSP-COVID is a prospective longitudinal cohort study, recruiting adults hospitalised with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient reported outcomes measures (PROMs), physical performance, and organ function at five-months and one-year after hospital discharge. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at one-year. Cluster analysis was performed using clustering large applications (CLARA) k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at five-months. Inflammatory protein profiling from plasma at the five-month visit was performed. Findings2320 participants have been assessed at five months after discharge and 807 participants have completed both five-month and one-year visits. Of these, 35{middle dot}6% were female, mean age 58{middle dot}7 (SD 12{middle dot}5) years, and 27{middle dot}8% received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between five months 501/1965 (25{middle dot}5%) and one year 232/804 (28{middle dot}9%). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at one year were: female sex OR 0{middle dot}68 (95% CI 0{middle dot}46-0{middle dot}99), obesity OR 0{middle dot}50 (95%CI 0{middle dot}34-0{middle dot}74) and IMV OR 0{middle dot}42 (95%CI 0{middle dot}23-0{middle dot}76). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate/cognitive, mild relating to the severity of physical, mental health and cognitive impairments at five months in a larger sample. There was elevation of inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate/cognitive clusters compared to the mild cluster including interleukin-6 which was elevated in both comparisons. Overall, there was a substantial deficit in median (IQR) EQ5D-5L utility index from pre-COVID (retrospective assessment) 0{middle dot}88 (0{middle dot}74-1{middle dot}00), five months 0{middle dot}74 (0{middle dot}60-0{middle dot}88) to one year: 0{middle dot}74 (0{middle dot}59-0{middle dot}88), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at one-year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters. InterpretationThe sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 remain substantial one year after discharge across a range of health domains with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient perceived health-related quality of life remains reduced at one year compared to pre-hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials. FundingUKRI & NIHR Research in ContextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSWe systematically searched PubMed and Embase databases for large studies reporting one-year follow-up data for hospitalised COVID-19 patients published between January 1, 2021 and November 7, 2021, without language restrictions. Search terms related to COVID-19, hospitalisation and long-term follow-up were used. A large prospective cohort study from Wuhan, China (n = 1276) showed that 49% of patients reported at least one persistent symptom during a follow-up clinic visit at 12 months post COVID-19; no significant improvement in exercise capacity was observed between six- and 12-month visits. Another two large cohort studies in China (n = 2433) and Spain (n = 1950) with one-year follow-up data from telephone interviews showed that 45% and 81% of patients reported at least one residual COVID-19 symptom, respectively. However, no previous studies have compared the trajectories of COVID-19 recovery in patients classified by different clinical phenotypes, and there are no large studies investigating the relationship between systemic inflammation and ongoing health impairments post COVID-19. Added value of this studyIn a diverse population of adults post-hospital admission with COVID-19, our large UK prospective multi-centre study reports several novel findings: the minority felt fully recovered at one year with minimal recovery from five months across any health domain; female sex and obesity are associated with being less likely to feel fully recovered at one year; several inflammatory mediators were increased in individuals with the most severe physical, mental health, and cognitive impairments compared to individuals with milder ongoing impairments. Implications of all the available evidenceBoth pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions are urgently needed to improve the ongoing burden following hospitalisation for COVID-19 both for individuals and healthcare systems; our findings support the use of a precision medicine approach with potential treatable traits of systemic inflammation and obesity.

Physical, cognitive and mental health impacts of COVID-19 following hospitalisation: a multi-centre prospective cohort study

BackgroundThe impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health, and employment following hospitalisation is poorly understood. MethodsPHOSP-COVID is a multi-centre, UK, observational study of adults discharged from hospital with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 involving an assessment between two- and seven-months later including detailed symptom, physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was performed for patient-perceived recovery with age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), co-morbidities, and severity of acute illness as co-variates. Cluster analysis was performed using outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognition and physical function. FindingsWe report findings of 1077 patients discharged in 2020, from the assessment undertaken a median 5 [IQR4 to 6] months later: 36% female, mean age 58 [SD 13] years, 69% white ethnicity, 27% mechanical ventilation, and 50% had at least two co-morbidities. At follow-up only 29% felt fully recovered, 20% had a new disability, and 19% experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with failure to recover were female, middle-age, white ethnicity, two or more co-morbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health burden was substantial and weakly related to acute severity. Four clusters were identified with different severities of mental and physical health impairment: 1) Very severe (17%), 2) Severe (21%), 3) Moderate with cognitive impairment (17%), 4) Mild (46%), with 3%, 7%, 36% and 43% feeling fully recovered, respectively. Persistent systemic inflammation determined by C-reactive protein was related to cluster severity, but not acute illness severity. InterpretationWe identified factors related to recovery from a hospital admission with COVID-19 and four different phenotypes relating to the severity of physical, mental, and cognitive health five months later. The implications for clinical care include the potential to stratify care and the need for a pro-active approach with wide-access to COVID-19 holistic clinical services. Funding: UKRI and NIHR

Individual factors underlie temperature variation in sickness and in health: influence of age, BMI and genetic factors in a multi-cohort study

IntroductionAgeing affects immune function resulting in aberrant fever response to infection. We assess the effects of biological variables on basal temperature and temperature in COVID-19 infection, proposing an updated temperature threshold for older adults. MethodsParticipants: O_LIUnaffected twin volunteers: 1089 adult TwinsUK participants. C_LIO_LILondon hospitalised COVID-19+: 520 adults with emergency admission. C_LIO_LIBirmingham hospitalised COVID-19+: 757 adults with emergency admission. C_LIO_LICommunity-based COVID-19+: 3972 adults self-reporting a positive test using the COVID Symptom Study mobile application. C_LI AnalysisHeritability assessed using saturated and univariate ACE models; Linear mixed-effect and multivariable linear regression analysing associations between temperature, age, sex and BMI; multivariable logistic regression analysing associations between fever ([≥]37.8{degrees}C) and age; receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify temperature threshold for adults [≥] 65 years. ResultsAmong unaffected volunteers, lower BMI (p=0.001), and older age (p<0.001) associated with lower basal temperature. Basal temperature showed a heritability of 47% (95% Confidence Interval 18-57%). In COVID-19+ participants, increasing age associated with lower temperatures in cohorts (c) and (d) (p<0.001). For each additional year of age, participants were 1% less likely to demonstrate a fever (OR 0.99; p<0.001). Combining healthy and COVID-19+ participants, a temperature of 37.4{degrees}C in adults [≥]65 years had similar sensitivity and specificity to 37.8{degrees}C in adults <65 years for discriminating fever in COVID-19. ConclusionsAgeing affects temperature in health and acute infection. Significant heritability indicates biological factors contribute to temperature regulation. Our observations indicate a lower threshold (37.4{degrees}C) should be considered for assessing fever in older adults. Key PointsO_LIOlder adults, particularly those with lower BMI, have a lower basal temperature and a lower temperature in response to infection C_LIO_LIBasal temperature is heritable, suggesting biological factors underlying temperature regulation C_LIO_LIOur findings support a lower temperature threshold of 37.4{degrees}C for identifying possible COVID-19 infection in older adults C_LIO_LIThis has implications for case detection, surveillance and isolation and could be incorporated into observation assessment C_LI