RESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The heterogeneity of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the widespread use of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) outside recommended guidelines have encouraged the development of scoring systems that predict patient survival. The aim of this study was to build and validate statistical models that offer individualized patient survival prediction using response to TACE as a variable. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Clinically relevant baseline parameters were collected for 4,621 patients with HCC treated with TACE at 19 centers in 11 countries. In some of the centers, radiological responses (as assessed by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors [mRECIST]) were also accrued. The data set was divided into a training set, an internal validation set, and two external validation sets. A pre-TACE model ("Pre-TACE-Predict") and a post-TACE model ("Post-TACE-Predict") that included response were built. The performance of the models in predicting overall survival (OS) was compared with existing ones. The median OS was 19.9 months. The factors influencing survival were tumor number and size, alpha-fetoprotein, albumin, bilirubin, vascular invasion, cause, and response as assessed by mRECIST. The proposed models showed superior predictive accuracy compared with existing models (the hepatoma arterial embolization prognostic score and its various modifications) and allowed for patient stratification into four distinct risk categories whose median OS ranged from 7 months to more than 4 years. CONCLUSIONS: A TACE-specific and extensively validated model based on routinely available clinical features and response after first TACE permitted patient-level prognostication.
Asunto(s)
Carcinoma Hepatocelular/mortalidad , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/terapia , Quimioembolización Terapéutica , Neoplasias Hepáticas/mortalidad , Neoplasias Hepáticas/terapia , Modelos Estadísticos , Adulto , Anciano , Arterias , Quimioembolización Terapéutica/métodos , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pronóstico , Tasa de SupervivenciaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: We identified the predictive factors and prognostic significance of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for achieving pathologic complete response (pCR) before curative surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis B-endemic areas. METHODS: Among 753 HCC patients treated with surgery, 124 patients underwent preoperative TACE before liver resection (LR), and 166 before liver transplantation (LT) between 2005 and 2016. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were analyzed. Pathologic response (PR) was defined as the mean percentage of necrotic area, and pCR was defined as the absence of viable tumor. RESULTS: A total of 34 (27%) and 38 (23%) patients had pCR before LR and LT, respectively. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) < 100 ng/mL and single tumor were significant preoperative predictors of pCR. OS and RFS were significantly improved in patients with pCR or a PR ≥ 90%, but not in patients with PR ≥ 50% after LR and LT. On multivariate analyses, PR ≥ 90% remained an independent predictor of better OS and RFS in LR and LT groups. CONCLUSION: Overall, our data clearly demonstrate that pCR predicts favorable prognosis after curative surgery for HCC, and predictors of pCR are AFP <100 ng/mL and single tumor.
