Effective tax rates of multinational corporations: Country-level estimates.

Effective tax rates (ETRs) estimated from the income statement data of multinational corporations (MNCs) are useful for comparing MNCs' corporate income taxation across countries. In this paper, we propose a new methodological approach to estimate ETRs as reliably and for as many countries as possible using Orbis' unconsolidated data for the 2011-2015 period. We focus on countries with at least 50 available companies, which results in a sample of 47, mostly European, countries. We estimate the ETR of a country as the ratio of corporate income tax to gross income for all affiliates of MNCs in that country, weighted by gross income. We propose four ETR estimations, including lower and upper bounds, which differ by gross income calculation. We find that ETRs substantially differ from statutory tax rates for some countries. For example, we show that despite similar statutory rates of 28% and 29%, MNCs in Luxembourg paid as little as 1-8% of gross income in taxes, while those in Norway paid as much as 46-67%. Despite being the best available, existing data is still imperfect. We therefore call for better data in the form of MNCs' unconsolidated, public country-by-country reporting data.

Rhythm versus rate control in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation - Observations from the GARFIELD-AF registry.

Background: Investigate real-world outcomes of early rhythm versus rate control in patients with recent onset atrial fibrillation. Methods: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-AF (GARFIELD-AF) is an international multi-centre, non-interventional prospective registry of newly diagnosed (≤6 weeks' duration) atrial fibrillation patients at risk for stroke. Patients were stratified according to treatment initiated at baseline (≤48 days post enrolment), and outcome risks evaluated by overlap propensity weighted Cox proportional-hazards models. Results: Of 45,382 non-permanent atrial fibrillation patients, 23,858 (52.6 %) received rhythm control and 21,524 (47.4 %) rate control. Rhythm-controlled patients had lower median age (68.0 [Q1;Q3: 60.0;76.0] versus 73.0 [65.0;79.0]), fewer histories of stroke/transient ischemic attack/systemic embolism (9.4 % versus 13.0 %), and lower expected probabilities of death (median GARFIELD-AF death score 4.0 [2.3;7.5] versus 5.1 [2.8;9.2]). The two groups had the same median CHA2DS2-VASc scores (3.0 [2.0;4.0]) and similar proportions of anticoagulated patients (rhythm control: 66.0 %, rate control: 65.5 %). The propensity-score-weighted hazard ratios of rhythm vs rate control (reference) were 0.85 (95 % CI: 0.79-0.92, p-value < 0.0001) for all-cause mortality, 0.84 (0.72-0.97, p-value 0.020) for non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism and 0.90 (0.78-1.04, p-value 0.164) for major bleeding. Conclusion: Rhythm control strategy was initiated in about half of the patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular non-permanent atrial fibrillation. After balancing confounders, significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke were observed in patients who received early rhythm control.

Structural connectivity-based predictors of cognitive impairment in stroke patients attributable to aging.

Despite the rising global burden of stroke and its socio-economic implications, the neuroimaging predictors of subsequent cognitive impairment are still poorly understood. We address this issue by studying the relationship of white matter integrity assessed within ten days after stroke and patients' cognitive status one year after the attack. Using diffusion-weighted imaging, we apply the Tract-Based Spatial Statistics analysis and construct individual structural connectivity matrices by employing deterministic tractography. We further quantify the graph-theoretical properties of individual networks. The Tract-Based Spatial Statistic did identify lower fractional anisotropy as a predictor of cognitive status, although this effect was mostly attributable to the age-related white matter integrity decline. We further observed the effect of age propagating into other levels of analysis. Specifically, in the structural connectivity approach we identified pairs of regions significantly correlated with clinical scales, namely memory, attention, and visuospatial functions. However, none of them persisted after the age correction. Finally, the graph-theoretical measures appeared to be more robust towards the effect of age, but still were not sensitive enough to capture a relationship with clinical scales. In conclusion, the effect of age is a dominant confounder especially in older cohorts, and unless appropriately addressed, may falsely drive the results of the predictive modelling.

On-treatment Comparative Effectiveness of Vitamin K Antagonists and Direct Oral Anticoagulants in GARFIELD-VTE, and Focus on Cancer and Renal Disease.

Background Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) provide a safe, effective alternative to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for venous thromboembolism (VTE) treatment, as shown via intention-to-treat comparative effectiveness analysis. However, on-treatment analysis is imperative in observational studies because anticoagulation choice and duration are at investigators' discretion. Objectives The aim of the study is to compare the effectiveness of DOACs and VKAs on 12-month outcomes in VTE patients using on-treatment analysis. Methods The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD - VTE (GARFIELD-VTE) is a world-wide, prospective, non-interventional study observing treatment of VTE in routine clinical practice. Results In total, 8,034 patients received VKAs ( n = 3,043, 37.9%) or DOACs ( n = 4,991, 62.1%). After adjustment for baseline characteristics and follow-up bleeding events, and accounting for possible time-varying confounding, all-cause mortality was significantly lower with DOACs than VKAs (hazard ratio: 0.58 [95% confidence interval 0.42-0.79]). Furthermore, patients receiving VKAs were more likely to die of VTE complications (4.9 vs. 2.2%) or bleeding (4.9 vs. 0.0%). There was no significant difference in rates of recurrent VTE (hazard ratio: 0.74 [0.55-1.01]), major bleeding (hazard ratio: 0.76 [0.47-1.24]), or overall bleeding (hazard ratio: 0.87 [0.72-1.05]) with DOACs or VKAs. Unadjusted analyses suggested that VKA patients with active cancer or renal insufficiency were more likely to die than patients treated with DOAC (52.51 [37.33-73.86] vs. 26.52 [19.37-36.29] and 9.97 [7.51-13.23] vs. 4.70 [3.25-6.81] per 100 person-years, respectively). Conclusion DOACs and VKAs had similar rates of recurrent VTE and major bleeding. However, DOACs were associated with reduced all-cause mortality and a lower likelihood of death from VTE or bleeding compared with VKAs.

Dulaglutide and cardiovascular and heart failure outcomes in patients with and without heart failure: a post-hoc analysis from the REWIND randomized trial.

AIMS: People with diabetes are at high risk for cardiovascular events including heart failure (HF). We examined the effect of the glucagon-like peptide 1 agonist dulaglutide on incident HF events and other cardiovascular outcomes in those with or without prior HF in the randomized placebo-controlled Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: The REWIND major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) outcome was the first occurrence of a composite endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes (including unknown causes). In this post-hoc analysis, a HF event was defined as an adjudication-confirmed hospitalization or urgent evaluation for HF. Of the 9901 participants studied over a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 213/4949 (4.3%) randomly assigned to dulaglutide and 226/4952 (4.6%) participants assigned to placebo experienced a HF event (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-1.12; p = 0.456). In the 853 (8.6%) participants with HF at baseline, there was no change in either MACE or HF events with dulaglutide as compared to participants without HF (p = 0.44 and 0.19 for interaction, respectively). Combined cardiovascular death and HF events were marginally reduced with dulaglutide compared to placebo (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-1.00; p = 0.050) but unchanged in patients with and without HF at baseline (p = 0.31). CONCLUSIONS: Dulaglutide was not associated with a reduction in HF events in patients with type 2 diabetes regardless of baseline HF status over 5.4 years of follow-up.

Novel Indices of Cognitive Impairment and Incident Cardiovascular Outcomes in the REWIND Trial.

CONTEXT: Low cognitive scores are risk factors for cardiovascular outcomes. Whether this relationship is stronger using novel cognitive indices is unknown. METHODS: Participants in the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial who completed both the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score and Digit Substitution Test (DSST) at baseline (N = 8772) were included. These scores were used to identify participants with baseline substantive cognitive impairment (SCI), defined as a baseline score on either the MoCA or DSST ≥ 1.5 SD below either score's country-specific mean, or SCI-GM, which was based on a composite index of both scores calculated as their geometric mean (GM), and defined as a score that was ≥ 1.5 SD below their country's average GM. Relationships between these measures and incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and either stroke or death were analyzed. RESULTS: Compared with 7867 (89.7%) unaffected participants, the 905 (10.3%) participants with baseline SCI had a higher incidence of MACE (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.34; 95% CI 1.11, 1.62; P = 0.003), and stroke or death (unadjusted HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.33, 1.91; P < 0.001). Stronger relationships were noted for SCI-GM and MACE (unadjusted HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.28, 2.01; P < 0.001), and stroke or death (unadjusted HR 1.85; 95% CI 1.50, 2.30; P < 0.001). For SCI-GM but not SCI, all these relationships remained significant in models that adjusted for up to 10 SCI risk factors. CONCLUSION: Country-standardized SCI-GM was a strong independent predictor of cardiovascular events in people with type 2 diabetes in the REWIND trial.

Dulaglutide and incident atrial fibrillation or flutter in patients with type 2 diabetes: A post hoc analysis from the REWIND randomized trial.

AIM: To assess the occurrence of atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (atrial arrhythmias [AA]) in patients with type 2 diabetes treated with once-weekly subcutaneous dulaglutide versus placebo. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients without electrocardiographic (ECG)-confirmed AA at baseline and randomized in the REWIND trial were assessed for the development of AA based on an annual ECG. Additional analyses included whether dulaglutide compared with placebo reduced the composite outcome of AA or death, AA or cardiovascular death, AA or stroke and AA or heart failure. RESULTS: Among 9543 participants (mean age 66 ± 7 years, with cardiovascular risk factors and 31% with previous cardiovascular disease) without AA at entry in the trial, 524 patients (5.5%) had at least one episode of AA during the median 5.4 years of follow-up. Incident AA occurred in 269 of the 4769 participants allocated to dulaglutide (5.6%), at a rate of 10.7 per 1000 person-years, versus 255 of the 4774 allocated to placebo (5.3%), at a rate of 10.5 per 1000 person-years (P = .59). There was also no effect of dulaglutide on the composite outcome of AA and death or AA and heart failure. CONCLUSION: This post hoc analysis of data from the REWIND trial showed that treatment with dulaglutide was not associated with a reduced incidence of AA in this at-risk group of patients with type 2 diabetes.

Cardioversion in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation: observational study using prospectively collected registry data.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinical outcomes of patients who underwent cardioversion compared with those who did not have cardioverson in a large dataset of patients with recent onset non-valvular atrial fibrillation. DESIGN: Observational study using prospectively collected registry data (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-AF-GARFIELD-AF). SETTING: 1317 participating sites in 35 countries. PARTICIPANTS: 52 057 patients aged 18 years and older with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (up to six weeks' duration) and at least one investigator determined stroke risk factor. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparisons were made between patients who received cardioversion and those who had no cardioversion at baseline, and between patients who received direct current cardioversion and those who had pharmacological cardioversion. Overlap propensity weighting with Cox proportional hazards models was used to evaluate the effect of cardioversion on clinical endpoints (all cause mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism, and major bleeding), adjusting for baseline risk and patient selection. RESULTS: 44 201 patients were included in the analysis comparing cardioversion and no cardioversion, and of these, 6595 (14.9%) underwent cardioversion at baseline. The propensity score weighted hazard ratio for all cause mortality in the cardioversion group was 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.86) from baseline to one year follow-up and 0.77 (0.64 to 0.93) from one year to two year follow-up. Of the 6595 patients who had cardioversion at baseline, 299 had a follow-up cardioversion more than 48 days after enrolment. 7175 patients were assessed in the analysis comparing type of cardioversion: 2427 (33.8%) received pharmacological cardioversion and 4748 (66.2%) had direct current cardioversion. During one year follow-up, event rates (per 100 patient years) for all cause mortality in patients who received direct current and pharmacological cardioversion were 1.36 (1.13 to 1.64) and 1.70 (1.35 to 2.14), respectively. CONCLUSION: In this large dataset of patients with recent onset non-valvular atrial fibrillation, a small proportion were treated with cardioversion. Direct current cardioversion was performed twice as often as pharmacological cardioversion, and there appeared to be no major difference in outcome events for these two cardioversion modalities. For the overall cardioversion group, after adjustments for confounders, a significantly lower risk of mortality was found in patients who received early cardioversion compared with those who did not receive early cardioversion. STUDY REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01090362.

Lowering cholesterol, blood pressure, or both to prevent cardiovascular events: results of 8. 7 years of follow-up of Heart Outcomes Evaluation Prevention (HOPE)-3 study participants

AIMS Rosuvastatin (10 mg per day) compared with placebo reduced major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events by 24% in 12 705 participants at intermediate CV risk after 5.6 years. There was no benefit of blood pressure (BP) lowering treatment in the overall group, but a reduction in events in the third of participants with elevated systolic BP. After cessation of all the trial medications, we examined whether the benefits observed during the active treatment phase were sustained, enhanced, or attenuated. METHODS AND RESULTS After the randomized treatment period (5.6 years), participants were invited to participate in 3.1 further years of observation (total 8.7 years). The first co-primary outcome for the entire length of follow-up was the composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or CV death [major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE)-1], and the second was MACE-1 plus resuscitated cardiac arrest, heart failure, or coronary revascularization (MACE-2). In total, 9326 (78%) of 11 994 surviving Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation (HOPE)-3 subjects consented to participate in extended follow-up. During 3.1 years of post-trial observation (total follow-up of 8.7 years), participants originally randomized to rosuvastatin compared with placebo had a 20% additional reduction in MACE-1 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.64­0.99] and a 17% additional reduction in MACE-2 (95% CI 0.68­1.01). Therefore, over the 8.7 years of follow-up, there was a 21% reduction in MACE-1 (95% CI 0.69­0.90, P = 0.005) and 21% reduction in MACE-2 (95% CI 0.69­0.89, P = 0.002). There was no benefit of BP lowering in the overall study either during the active or post-trial observation period, however, a 24% reduction in MACE-1 was observed over 8.7 years. CONCLUSION The CV benefits of rosuvastatin, and BP lowering in those with elevated systolic BP, compared with placebo continue to accrue for at least 3 years after cessation of randomized treatment in individuals without cardiovascular disease indicating a legacy effect.

Similar cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes and established or high risk for coronary vascular disease treated with dulaglutide with and without baseline metformin / Desfechos cardiovasculares semelhantes em pacientes com diabetes e risco estabelecido ou alto para doença vascular coronariana tratada com dulaglutida com e sem linha de base metformina

Objective Recent European Guidelines for Diabetes, Prediabetes and Cardiovascular Diseases introduced a shift in managing patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk for or established cardiovascular (CV) disease by recommending GLP-1 receptor agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors as initial glucose-lowering therapy. This is questioned since outcome trials of these drug classes had metformin as background therapy. In this post hoc analysis, the effect of dulaglutide on CV events was investigated according to the baseline metformin therapy by means of a subgroup analysis of the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial. Research design and methods Patients in REWIND (n = 9901; women: 46.3%; mean age: 66.2 years) had type 2 diabetes and either a previous CV event (31%) or high CV risk (69%). They were randomized (1:1) to sc. dulaglutide (1.5 mg/weekly) or placebo in addition to standard of care. The primary outcome was the first of a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and death from cardiovascular or unknown causes. Key secondary outcomes included a microvascular composite endpoint, all-cause death, and heart failure. The effect of dulaglutide in patients with and without baseline metformin was evaluated by a Cox regression hazard model with baseline metformin, dulaglutide assignment, and their interaction as independent variables. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by a Cox regression model with adjustments for factors differing at baseline between people with vs. without metformin, identified using the backward selection. Results Compared to patients with metformin at baseline (n = 8037; 81%), those without metformin (n = 1864; 19%) were older and slightly less obese and had higher proportions of women, prior CV events, heart failure, and renal disease. The primary outcome occurred in 976 (12%) participants with baseline metformin and in 281 (15%) without. There was no significant difference in the effect of dulaglutide on the primary outcome in patients with vs. without metformin at baseline [HR 0.92 (CI 0.81­1.05) vs. 0.78 (CI 0.61­0.99); interaction P = 0.18]. Findings for key secondary outcomes were similar in patients with and without baseline metformin. Conclusion This analysis suggests that the cardioprotective effect of dulaglutide is unaffected by the baseline use of metformin therapy.

Increasing prevalence of hypertension during long-term follow-up in children with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.

INTRODUCTION: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the most common hereditary kidney disease. Kidney cysts form over the course of the disease and kidney function slowly declines, usually leading to kidney failure in middle to late adulthood. However, some symptoms, such as hypertension or proteinuria, can be present at an earlier age. In this study, we aimed to quantify early complications in children over time. METHODS: All 69 children with ADPKD from our pediatric nephrology center who met inclusion criteria (follow-up ≥ 1 year and ≥ 2 recorded visits) were studied. Analysis of changes in kidney size, cyst count, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urinary protein excretion, and blood pressure was performed. RESULTS: The median time of follow-up was 6.3 years (range 8.4-14.8). Over the follow-up, kidneys grew from 109 to 115% of expected length (p < 0.0001), number of cysts increased at a rate of 0.8 cyst/kidney/year, and the prevalence of hypertension increased significantly from 20 to 38% (p < 0.015). The eGFR and absolute urinary protein excretion remained stable. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that children with ADPKD suffer from increasing prevalence of hypertension during the course of the disease parallel to the increasing number of kidney cysts and size despite normal and stable kidney function and proteinuria. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Lowering cholesterol, blood pressure, or both to prevent cardiovascular events: results of 8.7 years of follow-up of Heart Outcomes Evaluation Prevention (HOPE)-3 study participants.

AIMS: Rosuvastatin (10 mg per day) compared with placebo reduced major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events by 24% in 12 705 participants at intermediate CV risk after 5.6 years. There was no benefit of blood pressure (BP) lowering treatment in the overall group, but a reduction in events in the third of participants with elevated systolic BP. After cessation of all the trial medications, we examined whether the benefits observed during the active treatment phase were sustained, enhanced, or attenuated. METHODS AND RESULTS: After the randomized treatment period (5.6 years), participants were invited to participate in 3.1 further years of observation (total 8.7 years). The first co-primary outcome for the entire length of follow-up was the composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or CV death [major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE)-1], and the second was MACE-1 plus resuscitated cardiac arrest, heart failure, or coronary revascularization (MACE-2). In total, 9326 (78%) of 11 994 surviving Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation (HOPE)-3 subjects consented to participate in extended follow-up. During 3.1 years of post-trial observation (total follow-up of 8.7 years), participants originally randomized to rosuvastatin compared with placebo had a 20% additional reduction in MACE-1 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.64-0.99] and a 17% additional reduction in MACE-2 (95% CI 0.68-1.01). Therefore, over the 8.7 years of follow-up, there was a 21% reduction in MACE-1 (95% CI 0.69-0.90, P = 0.005) and 21% reduction in MACE-2 (95% CI 0.69-0.89, P = 0.002). There was no benefit of BP lowering in the overall study either during the active or post-trial observation period, however, a 24% reduction in MACE-1 was observed over 8.7 years. CONCLUSION: The CV benefits of rosuvastatin, and BP lowering in those with elevated systolic BP, compared with placebo continue to accrue for at least 3 years after cessation of randomized treatment in individuals without cardiovascular disease indicating a legacy effect. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00468923.

Similar cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes and established or high risk for coronary vascular disease treated with dulaglutide with and without baseline metformin.

OBJECTIVE: Recent European Guidelines for Diabetes, Prediabetes and Cardiovascular Diseases introduced a shift in managing patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk for or established cardiovascular (CV) disease by recommending GLP-1 receptor agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors as initial glucose-lowering therapy. This is questioned since outcome trials of these drug classes had metformin as background therapy. In this post hoc analysis, the effect of dulaglutide on CV events was investigated according to the baseline metformin therapy by means of a subgroup analysis of the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Patients in REWIND (n = 9901; women: 46.3%; mean age: 66.2 years) had type 2 diabetes and either a previous CV event (31%) or high CV risk (69%). They were randomized (1:1) to sc. dulaglutide (1.5 mg/weekly) or placebo in addition to standard of care. The primary outcome was the first of a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and death from cardiovascular or unknown causes. Key secondary outcomes included a microvascular composite endpoint, all-cause death, and heart failure. The effect of dulaglutide in patients with and without baseline metformin was evaluated by a Cox regression hazard model with baseline metformin, dulaglutide assignment, and their interaction as independent variables. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by a Cox regression model with adjustments for factors differing at baseline between people with vs. without metformin, identified using the backward selection. RESULTS: Compared to patients with metformin at baseline (n = 8037; 81%), those without metformin (n = 1864; 19%) were older and slightly less obese and had higher proportions of women, prior CV events, heart failure, and renal disease. The primary outcome occurred in 976 (12%) participants with baseline metformin and in 281 (15%) without. There was no significant difference in the effect of dulaglutide on the primary outcome in patients with vs. without metformin at baseline [HR 0.92 (CI 0.81-1.05) vs. 0.78 (CI 0.61-0.99); interaction P = 0.18]. Findings for key secondary outcomes were similar in patients with and without baseline metformin. CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that the cardioprotective effect of dulaglutide is unaffected by the baseline use of metformin therapy.

The effect of dulaglutide on stroke: an exploratory analysis of the REWIND trial.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular outcome trials have suggested that glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists might reduce strokes. We analysed the effect of dulaglutide on stroke within the researching cardiovascular events with a weekly incretin in diabetes (REWIND) trial. METHODS: REWIND was a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial done at 371 sites in 24 countries. Men and women (aged ≥50 years) with established or newly detected type 2 diabetes whose HbA1c was 9·5% or less (with no lower limit) on stable doses of up to two oral glucose-lowering drugs with or without basal insulin therapy were eligible if their body-mass index was at least 23 kg/m2. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to weekly subcutaneous injections of either masked dulaglutide 1·5 mg or the same volume of masked placebo (containing the same excipients but without dulaglutide). Randomisation was done by a computer-generated random code with an interactive web response system with stratification by site. Participants, investigators, the trial leadership, and all other personnel were masked to treatment allocation until the trial was completed and the database was locked. During the treatment period, participants in both groups were instructed to inject study drug on the same day at around the same time, each week. Strokes were categorised as fatal or non-fatal, and as either ischaemic, haemorrhagic, or undetermined. Stroke severity was assessed using the modified Rankin scale. Participants were seen at 2 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and then every 3 months for drug dispensing and every 6 months for detailed assessments, until 1200 confirmed primary outcomes accrued. The primary endpoint was the first occurrence of any component of the composite outcome, which comprised non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular or unknown causes. All analyses were done according to an intention-to-treat strategy that included all randomly assigned participants, irrespective of adherence. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01394952. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2011, and Aug 14, 2013, we screened 12 133 patients, of whom 9901 with type 2 diabetes and additional cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned to either dulaglutide (n=4949) or an equal volume of placebo (n=4952). During a median follow-up of 5·4 years, cerebrovascular and other cardiovascular outcomes were ascertained and adjudicated. 158 (3·2%) of 4949 participants assigned to dulaglutide and 205 (4·1%) of 4952 participants assigned to placebo had a stroke during follow-up (hazard ratio [HR] 0·76, 95% CI 0·62-0·94; p=0·010). Dulaglutide reduced ischaemic stroke (0·75, 0·59-0·94, p=0·012) but had no effect on haemorrhagic stroke (1·05, 0·55-1·99; p=0·89). Dulaglutide also reduced the composite of non-fatal stroke or all-cause death (0·88, 0·79-0·98; p=0·017) and disabling stroke (0·74, 0·56-0·99; p=0·042). The degree of disability after stroke did not differ by treatment group. INTERPRETATION: Long-term dulaglutide use might reduce clinically relevant ischaemic stroke in people with type 2 diabetes but does not affect stroke severity. FUNDING: Eli Lilly and Company.

Pharmacogenetic algorithm for predicting daily dose of warfarin in Caucasian patients of Czech origin.

OBJECTIVES: Warfarin use is limited by a low therapeutic index and significant interindividual variability of the daily dose. The most important factor predicting daily warfarin dose is individual genotype, polymorphisms of genes CYP2C9 (warfarin metabolism) and VKORC1 (sensitivity for warfarin). Algorithms using clinical and genetic variables could predict the daily dose before the initiation of therapy. The aim of this study was to develop and validate an algorithm for the prediction of warfarin daily dose in Czech patients. METHODS: Detailed clinical data of patients with known and stable warfarin daily dose were collected. All patients were genotyped for polymorphisms in genes CYP2C9 and VKORC1. RESULTS: Included patients were divided into derivation (n=175) and validation (n=223) cohorts. The final algorithm includes the following variables: Age, height, weight, treatment with amiodarone and presence of variant alleles of genes CYP2C9 and VKORC1. The adjusted coefficient of determination is 72.4% in the derivation and 62.3% in the validation cohort (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our validated algorithm for warfarin daily dose prediction in our Czech cohort had higher precision than other currently published algorithms. Pharmacogenetics of warfarin has the potential in the clinical practice in specialized centers.

Switching of Oral Anticoagulation Therapy After PCI in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: The RE-DUAL PCI Trial Subanalysis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess if prior oral anticoagulant agent (OAC) use modifies the lower bleeding risk observed with dabigatran dual therapy (dabigatran twice daily plus a P2Y12 inhibitor) versus warfarin triple therapy (warfarin plus a P2Y12 inhibitor plus aspirin) in patients with atrial fibrillation who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). BACKGROUND: In the RE-DUAL PCI (Randomized Evaluation of Dual Antithrombotic Therapy With Dabigatran Versus Triple Therapy With Warfarin in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention) trial, the primary outcome of major bleeding or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding was lower with dabigatran dual therapy versus warfarin triple therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation who underwent PCI. METHODS: A total of 2,725 patients were randomized to dual therapy with dabigatran (110 or 150 mg twice daily) plus clopidogrel or ticagrelor or triple therapy with warfarin plus aspirin and clopidogrel or ticagrelor. Subgroup analysis compared risk for major bleeding or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding and a composite thromboembolic endpoint in patients with prior OAC use and in those who were OAC treatment naive. RESULTS: Risk for major bleeding or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding was reduced with both dabigatran dual therapies compared with warfarin triple therapy in both the prior OAC use group (hazard ratios: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42 to 0.81] and 0.61 [95% CI: 0.41 to 0.92] with 110 and 150 mg dabigatran, respectively) and the OAC-naive group (hazard ratios: 0.49 [95% CI: 0.38 to 0.63] and 0.76 [95% CI: 0.59 to 0.97] with 110 and 150 mg dabigatran) (p for interaction = 0.42 and 0.37, 110 and 150 mg dabigatran, respectively). The risk for thromboembolic events seemed similar with dabigatran dual therapy (both doses) and warfarin triple therapy across subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Bleeding risk was reduced with dabigatran dual therapy versus warfarin triple therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation after PCI, regardless of whether they were prior OAC users or OAC treatment naive. These results suggest that it is also safe to switch patients on OAC pre-PCI to dabigatran dual therapy post-PCI.

Outcomes in Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation and History of Acute Coronary Syndromes: Insights from GARFIELD-AF.

BACKGROUND: Many patients with atrial fibrillation have concomitant coronary artery disease with or without acute coronary syndromes and are in need of additional antithrombotic therapy. There are few data on the long-term clinical outcome of atrial fibrillation patients with a history of acute coronary syndrome. This is a 2-year study of atrial fibrillation patients with or without a history of acute coronary syndromes. METHODS: Adults with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation and ≥1 investigator-defined stroke risk factor were enrolled in GARFIELD-AF between March 2010 and September 2015. The association between prior acute coronary syndromes and long-term outcomes was determined using a Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for baseline risk factors, oral anticoagulation (OAC) ± antiplatelet (AP) therapy, and usual care. RESULTS: Of 39,679 patients, 10.5% had a history of acute coronary syndromes. At 2-year follow-up, patients with prior acute coronary syndromes had higher adjusted risks of stroke/systemic embolism (hazard ratio [HR] 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.78), major bleeding (HR 1.30; 95% CI, 0.95 -1.79), all-cause mortality (HR 1.34; 95% CI, 1.21 -1.49), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.85; 95% CI, 1.51-2.26), and new acute coronary syndromes (HR 3.42; 95% CI, 2.62-4.45). Comparing antithrombotic therapy in the acute coronary syndromes vs no acute coronary syndromes groups, most patients received OAC ± AP: 60.8% vs 66.1%, but AP therapy was more likely in the acute coronary syndromes group (68.1% vs 32.9%), either alone (34.9% vs 20.8%) or with OAC (33.2% vs 12.1%). Overall, 17.8% in the acute coronary syndromes group received dual AP therapy with (5.3%) or without OAC (12.5%). Among patients with moderate/high risk for stroke/systemic embolism, fewer in the acute coronary syndromes group received OAC with or without AP therapy (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age 75 years, Diabetes mellitus, prior Stroke, TIA, or thromboembolism, Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category [CHA2DS2-VASc] 2: 52.1% vs 64.6%; CHA2DS2-VASc ≥3: 62.0% vs 70.7%), and the majority with a Hypertension (uncontrolled systolic blood pressure >160 mm Hg), Abnormal renal or liver function, previous Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratios, Elderly, and concomitant Drugs or alcohol excess (HAS-BLED) score ≥3 were on AP therapy (83.8% vs 65.5%). CONCLUSIONS: In GARFIELD-AF, previous acute coronary syndromes are associated with worse 2-year outcomes and a greater likelihood of under-treatment with OAC, while two-thirds of patients receive AP therapy. Major bleeding was more common with previous acute coronary syndromes, even after adjusting for all risk factors.

Dulaglutide and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes: an exploratory analysis of the REWIND randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Background Two glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists reduced renal outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes at risk for cardiovascular disease. We assessed the long-term effect of the GLP-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide on renal outcomes in an exploratory analysis of the REWIND trial of the effect of dulaglutide on cardiovascular disease. Methods REWIND was a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial at 371 sites in 24 countries. Men and women aged at least 50 years with type 2 diabetes who had either a previous cardiovascular event or cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned (1:1) to either weekly subcutaneous injection of dulaglutide (1·5 mg) or placebo and followed up at least every 6 months for outcomes. Urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratios (UACRs) and estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) were estimated from urine and serum values measured in local laboratories every 12 months. The primary outcome (first occurrence of the composite endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes), secondary outcomes (including a composite microvascular outcome), and safety outcomes of this trial have been reported elsewhere. In this exploratory analysis, we investigate the renal component of the composite microvascular outcome, defined as the first occurrence of new macroalbuminuria (UACR >33·9 mg/mmol), a sustained decline in eGFR of 30% or more from baseline, or chronic renal replacement therapy. Analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01394952. Findings Between Aug 18, 2011, and Aug 14, 2013, 9901 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive dulaglutide (n=4949) or placebo (n=4952). At baseline, 791 (7·9%) had macroalbuminuria and mean eGFR was 76·9 mL/min per 1·73 m² (SD 22·7). During a median follow-up of 5·4 years (IQR 5·1­5·9) comprising 51 820 person years, the renal outcome developed in 848 (17·1%) participants at an incidence rate of 3·5 per 100 person-years in the dulaglutide group and in 970 (19·6%) participants at an incidence rate of 4·1 per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·77­0·93; p=0·0004). The clearest effect was for new macroalbuminuria (HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·68­0·87; p<0·0001), with HRs of 0·89 (0·78­1·01; p=0·066) for sustained decline in eGFR of 30% or more and 0·75 (0·39­1·44; p=0·39) for chronic renal replacement therapy. (AU)

Dulaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes (REWIND): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Three different glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists reduce cardiovascular outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk with high glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) concentrations. We assessed the effect of the GLP-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide on major adverse cardiovascular events when added to the existing antihyperglycaemic regimens of individuals with type 2 diabetes with and without previous cardiovascular disease and a wide range of glycaemic control. METHODS: This multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was done at 371 sites in 24 countries. Men and women aged at least 50 years with type 2 diabetes who had either a previous cardiovascular event or cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned (1:1) to either weekly subcutaneous injection of dulaglutide (1·5 mg) or placebo. Randomisation was done by a computer-generated random code with stratification by site. All investigators and participants were masked to treatment assignment. Participants were followed up at least every 6 months for incident cardiovascular and other serious clinical outcomes. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of the composite endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes (including unknown causes), which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01394952. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2011, and Aug 14, 2013, 9901 participants (mean age 66·2 years [SD 6·5], median HbA1c 7·2% [IQR 6·6-8·1], 4589 [46·3%] women) were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive dulaglutide (n=4949) or placebo (n=4952). During a median follow-up of 5·4 years (IQR 5·1-5·9), the primary composite outcome occurred in 594 (12·0%) participants at an incidence rate of 2·4 per 100 person-years in the dulaglutide group and in 663 (13·4%) participants at an incidence rate of 2·7 per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·88, 95% CI 0·79-0·99; p=0·026). All-cause mortality did not differ between groups (536 [10·8%] in the dulaglutide group vs 592 [12·0%] in the placebo group; HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·80-1·01; p=0·067). 2347 (47·4%) participants assigned to dulaglutide reported a gastrointestinal adverse event during follow-up compared with 1687 (34·1%) participants assigned to placebo (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Dulaglutide could be considered for the management of glycaemic control in middle-aged and older people with type 2 diabetes with either previous cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular risk factors. FUNDING: Eli Lilly and Company.

Dulaglutide and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes: an exploratory analysis of the REWIND randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Two glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists reduced renal outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes at risk for cardiovascular disease. We assessed the long-term effect of the GLP-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide on renal outcomes in an exploratory analysis of the REWIND trial of the effect of dulaglutide on cardiovascular disease. METHODS: REWIND was a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial at 371 sites in 24 countries. Men and women aged at least 50 years with type 2 diabetes who had either a previous cardiovascular event or cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned (1:1) to either weekly subcutaneous injection of dulaglutide (1·5 mg) or placebo and followed up at least every 6 months for outcomes. Urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratios (UACRs) and estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) were estimated from urine and serum values measured in local laboratories every 12 months. The primary outcome (first occurrence of the composite endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes), secondary outcomes (including a composite microvascular outcome), and safety outcomes of this trial have been reported elsewhere. In this exploratory analysis, we investigate the renal component of the composite microvascular outcome, defined as the first occurrence of new macroalbuminuria (UACR >33·9 mg/mmol), a sustained decline in eGFR of 30% or more from baseline, or chronic renal replacement therapy. Analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01394952. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2011, and Aug 14, 2013, 9901 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive dulaglutide (n=4949) or placebo (n=4952). At baseline, 791 (7·9%) had macroalbuminuria and mean eGFR was 76·9 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (SD 22·7). During a median follow-up of 5·4 years (IQR 5·1-5·9) comprising 51 820 person-years, the renal outcome developed in 848 (17·1%) participants at an incidence rate of 3·5 per 100 person-years in the dulaglutide group and in 970 (19·6%) participants at an incidence rate of 4·1 per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·77-0·93; p=0·0004). The clearest effect was for new macroalbuminuria (HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·68-0·87; p<0·0001), with HRs of 0·89 (0·78-1·01; p=0·066) for sustained decline in eGFR of 30% or more and 0·75 (0·39-1·44; p=0·39) for chronic renal replacement therapy. INTERPRETATION: Long-term use of dulaglutide was associated with reduced composite renal outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes. FUNDING: Eli Lilly and Company.