RESUMEN
Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980-2015 using the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125°× 1258° forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth, and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at p < 0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm yr-1 in the upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 mm yr-1 in the West and South, net radiation flux trends range from 10.05 to 10.20 W m-2 yr-1 in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 W m-2 yr-1 in the West, and U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03 K yr-1. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from west to east. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days yr-1 while trend detection increased 11%. Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, with RMSE decreasing only from 0.17 to 0.16 W m-2 yr-1, while trend detection increased 2%. NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm yr-1 while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gauged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.
RESUMEN
The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) on the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-2) mission is a six beam, low energy, high repetition rate, 532 nm laser transmitter with photon counting detectors. Although designed primarily for detecting height changes in icecaps, sea ice and vegetation, the polar-orbital satellite will observe global surface water during its designed three year life span, including inland water bodies, coasts, and open oceans. In preparation for the mission, an ICESat-2 prototype or the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), was built and flown on high altitude aircraft experiments over a range of inland and near-shore targets. The purpose was to test the ATLAS concept and to provide a database for developing an algorithm that detects along track surface water height and light penetration under a range of atmospheric and water conditions. The current analysis examines the datasets of three MABEL transects observed from 20 km above ground of coastal and inland waters conducted in 2012 and 2013. Transects ranged from about 2 to 12 km in length and included the middle Chesapeake Bay, the near shore Atlantic coast at Virginia Beach, and Lake Mead. Results indicate MABEL's high capability for retrieving surface water height statistics with a mean height precision of approximately 5-7 cm per 100m segment length. Profiles of attenuated subsurface backscatter, characterized using a Signal to Background Ratio written in Log10 base, or LSBR 0 , were observed over a range of 1.3 to 9.3 meters depending on water clarity and atmospheric background. Results indicate that observable penetration depth, although primarily dependent on water properties, was greatest when solar background rate was low. Near shore bottom reflectance was detected only at the Lake Mead site down to maximum of 10 m under a clear night sky and low turbidity of approximately 1.6 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU). The overall results suggest that the feasibility of retrieving operational surface water height statistics from space-based photon counting systems such as ATLAS is very high for resolutions down to about 100m, even in partly cloudy conditions. The capability to observe subsurface backscatter profiles is achievable but requires much longer transects of several hundreds of meters.
