Multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and prevalence estimates and projections, Australia, 1982-2043: a statistical modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates during 1982-2018, and to estimate its incidence, mortality, and prevalence for 2019-2043. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based statistical modelling study; analysis of and projections based on Australian Institute of Health and Welfare multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and survival data. SETTING: Australia, 1982-2018 (historical data) and projections to 2043. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates, 1982-2018, determined by joinpoint regression analysis (age-standardised to 2021 Australian population); projection of rates to 2043 based on age-period-cohort models; estimated 5- and 30-year prevalence of multiple myeloma (modified counting method). RESULTS: The incidence of multiple myeloma increased during 1982-2018 (eg, annual percentage change [APC], 2006-2018, 1.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-2.2%), but the mortality rate declined during 1990-2018 (APC, -0.4%; 95% CI, -0.5% to -0.2%). The age-standardised incidence rate was projected to increase by 14.9% during 2018-2043, from 8.7 in 2018 to 10.0 (95% CI, 9.4-10.7) new cases per 100 000 population in 2043; the mortality rate was projected to decline by 27.5%, from 4.0 to 2.9 (95% CI, 2.6-3.3) deaths per 100 000 population. The annual number of people newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma was estimated to increase by 89.2%, from 2120 in 2018 to 4012 in 2043; the number of deaths from multiple myeloma was projected to increase by 31.7%, from 979 to 1289. The number of people living with multiple myeloma up to 30 years after initial diagnosis was projected to increase by 163%, from 10 288 in 2018 to 27 093 in 2043, including 13 019 people (48.1%) diagnosed during the preceding five years. CONCLUSION: Although the decline in the mortality rate was projected to continue, the projected increases in the incidence and prevalence of multiple myeloma in Australia over the next 25 years indicate that investment in prevention and early detection research, and planning for prolonged treatment and care, are needed.

Discharge to inpatient rehabilitation following arthroplasty is a strong predictor of persistent opioid use 90 days after surgery: a prospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Total knee and hip arthroplasty are considered a clinically and cost-effective intervention, however, persistent pain post-surgery can occur, and some continue to take opioid medications long-term. One factor which has infrequently been included in prediction modelling is rehabilitation pathway, in particular, one which includes inpatient rehabilitation. As discharge to inpatient rehabilitation post-arthroplasty is common practice, we aimed to identify whether rehabilitation pathway (discharge to in-patient rehabilitation or not) predicts continued use of opioids at 3 months (90 days) post- total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) whilst controlling for other covariates. METHODS: The study was nested within a prospective observational study capturing pre-operative, acute care and longer-term data from 1900 osteoarthritis (OA) patients who underwent primary TKA or THA. The larger study involved a part-random, part-convenience sample of 19 high-volume hospitals across Australia. Records with complete pre-and post-operative analgesic (35 days and 90 days) use were identified [1771 records (93% of sample)] and included in logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Three hundred and thirteen people (17.8%) reported ongoing opioid use at 90 days post-operatively. In the adjusted model, admission to inpatient rehabilitation after surgery was identified as an independent and significant predictor of opioid use at 90-days. Inpatient rehabilitation was associated with almost twice the odds of persistent opioid use at 90-days compared to discharge directly home (OR = 1.9 (1.4, 2.5), p < .001). CONCLUSION: The inpatient rehabilitation pathway is a strong predictor of longer-term opioid use (90 days) post-arthroplasty, accounting for many known and possible confounders of use including sex, age, insurance status, major complications, smoking status and baseline body pain levels. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was nested within a prospective cohort observational study capturing pre-operative, acute-care and longer-term data from patients undergoing primary TKA or THA for osteoarthritis (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01899443).

Effectiveness of Oxycodone Hydrochloride (Strong Opioid) vs Combination Acetaminophen and Codeine (Mild Opioid) for Subacute Pain After Fractures Managed Surgically: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Patients with a surgically managed fracture are commonly discharged from the hospital with a strong opioid prescription, but limited evidence exists to support this practice. Objective: To test the hypothesis that strong opioids provide greater analgesia than mild opioids over the first week postdischarge from hospital after fracture surgical treatment. Design, Setting, and Participants: This double-blind, superiority, randomized clinical trial was conducted at a single-center, major trauma hospital in Sydney, Australia. Participants were inpatients who had sustained an acute nonpathological facture of a long bone or the pelvis, patella, calcaneus, or talus who were treated with surgical fixation and enrolled from July 27, 2016, to August 22, 2017. Data were analyzed from June through October 2018. Interventions: Initiation at discharge of oxycodone hydrochloride 5 mg of 10 mg (ie, 1 or 2 tablets) or combination acetaminophen and codeine 500 mg and 8 mg or 1000 mg and 16 mg (ie, 1 or 2 tablets) 4 times daily for a maximum duration of 3 weeks. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the mean of daily pain scores collected during week 1 of treatment measured using the Numerical Pain Rating Scale (NRS). Participants were asked to rate their mean pain over the previous 24 hours daily using an NRS score from 0 to 10, with 0 representing no pain and 10 representing the worst pain imaginable. The key secondary outcomes were EuroQol 5-Dimension 5-Level Questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) responses, worst pain, medication adverse events, global perceived effect, and return to work. Results: A total of 120 patients with 1 or more acute orthopedic fractures requiring surgical fixation were randomized, including 59 patients in the strong-opioid group (43 [72.9%] men; mean [SD] age, 36.0 [14.1] years; mean oral morphine equivalent for days 1-7 of 32.9 mg) and 61 patients in the mild opioid group (47 [77.1%] men; mean [SD] age, 38.2 [13.5] years; mean oral morphine equivalent for days 1-7 of 5.5 mg). From days 1 to 7 postdischarge, the mean daily NRS mean pain score was 4.04 (95% Cl, 3.67 to 4.41) in the strong opioid group and 4.54 (95% Cl, 4.17 to 4.90) in the mild opioid group. The between-group difference of the primary outcome was not statistically significant (-0.50 [95% Cl, -1.11 to 0.12]; P = .11) despite a 6-fold increased dose of opioids being delivered in the strong opioid group. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that treatment with strong opioid medication subacutely was not superior to treatment with milder medication for treatment of pain among patients with surgically managed orthopedic fractures. These findings suggest that ongoing first-line strong opioid use after discharge from the hospital should not be supported. Trial Registration: Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry No.: ACTRN12616000941460.

Is Satisfaction with the Acute-Care Experience Higher amongst Consumers Treated in the Private Sector? A Survey of Public and Private Sector Arthroplasty Recipients.

BACKGROUND: Consumer satisfaction with the acute-care experience could reasonably be expected to be higher amongst those treated in the private sector compared to those treated in the public sector given the former relies on high-level satisfaction of its consumers and their subsequent recommendations to thrive. The primary aims of this study were to determine, in a knee or hip arthroplasty cohort, if surgery in the private sector predicts greater overall satisfaction with the acute-care experience and greater likelihood to recommend the same hospital. A secondary aim was to determine whether satisfaction across a range of service domains is also higher in the private sector. METHODS: A telephone survey was conducted 35 days post-surgery. The hospital cohort comprised eight public and seven private high-volume arthroplasty providers. Consumers rated overall satisfaction with care out of 100 and likeliness to recommend their hospital on a 5-point Likert scale. Additional Likert-style questions were asked covering specific service domains. Generalized estimating equation models were used to analyse overall satisfaction (dichotomised as ≥ 90 or < 90) and future recommendations for care (dichotomised as 'definitely recommend' or 'other'), whilst controlling for covariates. The proportions of consumers in each sector reporting the best Likert response for each individual domain were compared using non-parametric tests. RESULTS: 457 survey respondents (n = 210 private) were included. Less patient-reported joint impairment pre-surgery [OR 1.03 (95% CI 1.01-1.05)] and absence of an acute complication (OR 2.13 95% CI 1.41-3.23) significantly predicted higher overall satisfaction. Hip arthroplasty [OR 1.84 (1.1-2.96)] and an absence of an acute complication [OR 2.31 (1.28-4.17] significantly predicted greater likelihood for recommending the hospital. The only care domains where the private out-performed the public sector were hospitality (46.7 vs 35.6%, p <0.01) and frequency of surgeon visitation (76.4 vs 65.8%, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Arthroplasty consumers treated in the private sector are not more satisfied with their acute-care experience nor are they more likely to recommend their hospital provider. Rather, avoidance of complications in either sector appears to result in improved satisfaction as well as a greater likelihood that patients would recommend their hospital provider.

Psychological Traits in Patients Waiting for Total Knee Arthroplasty. A Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: To determine the prevalence of psychiatric distress in an Australian patient population waiting for total knee arthroplasty and to assess the associations between psychological distress and other baseline characteristics. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study of prospectively collected data from patients with knee arthritis participating in the New South Wales Osteoarthritis Chronic Care Program. Participants were divided into 2 groups based on the Depression Anxiety and Stress Score. The prevalence of psychological distress was compared to reported prevalence in the Australian community. Between-group comparisons of a number of variables were made, including demographic and socioeconomic data, health and psychiatric data, patient-reported knee and quality-of-life scores, and measured function. RESULTS: Data from 3103 patients were available and 2809 patients were eligible for inclusion, with 1740 (62%) females. Mean patient age was 68 years, and mean body mass index was 33.8. We found 753 (26.8%, standard deviation: 0.44) of participants reported psychological distress. Those reporting distress were more likely to be female (P = .025), younger (66.6 vs 68.8 years, P < .001), with a higher body mass index (34.5 vs 32.7, P < .001), and had more comorbidities (3.4 vs 2.8, P < .001). The distressed group had significantly worse knee pain (visual analog scale: 7.1 vs 6.2, P < .001; Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Score pain component: 28.9 vs 41.2, P < .001), knee function, and general quality-of-health scores (P < .001). CONCLUSION: Psychological health is an important and often overlooked predictor of severity of symptoms and dysfunction in patients with knee arthritis. As it can affect the outcome for surgery, psychological health should be better assessed and treated before surgery to help reduce preoperative dysfunction and improve postoperative outcomes of total knee arthroplasty.

Tibial rotation kinematics subsequent to knee arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: The use of computer assisted joint replacement has facilitated precise intraoperative measurement of knee kinematics. The changes in "screw home mechanism" (SHM) resulting from Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) with different prostheses and constraints has not yet been accurately described. METHODS: A pilot study was first completed. Intraoperative kinematic data was collected two groups of 15 patients receiving different prostheses. RESULTS: On average, patients lost 5.3° of ER (SD = 6.1°). There was no significant difference between the prostheses or different prosthetic constraints. CONCLUSIONS: There significant loss of SHM after TKA. Further research is required to understand its impact on patient function.

The Australian arthroplasty thromboprophylaxis survey.

Previous surveys of orthopedic surgeons have shown considerable variation in thromboprophylaxis for venous thromboembolism after joint arthroplasty. This survey aimed to determine the current practice among Australian orthopedic surgeons. A questionnaire regarding the duration, reasons, and methods of chemical and mechanical prophylaxis for hip and knee arthroplasty patients was sent to the 1082 surgeons identified; 593 (55%) members completed the questionnaire. The survey revealed that 98% of surgeons used chemical thromboprophylaxis, mainly low-molecular-weight heparin (84% hip and 79% knee). Those who use low-molecular-weight heparin were more likely to prescribe anticoagulants in fear of litigation (19.2% vs 10.1%, P = .04) and more likely to rely on protocols or guidelines (32.2% vs 17.2%, P = .004) instead of basing their decision on their own reading (52.4% vs 71.3%, P = .001). Most orthopedic surgeons in our survey have indicated that they would welcome guidelines from their association or college regarding thromboprophylaxis in arthroplasty.