The risk stratification and predictive performance of a new combined polygenic risk score for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Recent genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in liver diseases have generated some polygenic risk scores (PRSs), but their predictive effectiveness on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk assessment remains unclear. METHODS: Here, we constructed a novel combined polygenic risk score and evaluated its increment to the well-established risk model. We used 15 HCC-associated genetic loci from two PRSs and FinnGen GWAS data to calculate a PRS-combined score and to fit the related PRS model in the UK Biobank cohort (N = 436,162). The PRS-combined score was further assessed for risk stratification for HCC integrating with the recommended clinical risk scores. RESULTS: The PRS-combined model achieved a better AUC (0.657) than that of PRS-HFC (0.637) and PRS-cirrhosis (0.645). The top 20% of the PRS-combined distribution had a 3.25 increased risk of HCC vs. the middle decile (45-55%). At the population level, the addition of PRS-combined to the CLivD score significantly increased the C-statistic (from 0.716 to 0.746) and provided a remarkable improvement in reclassification (NRI = 0.088) at the 10-year risk threshold of 0.2%. In clinic, additional assessment of PRS-combined would reclassify 34,647 intermediate-risk participants as high genetic risk, corresponding to an increase of 63.92% (62/97) of the HCC events classified at high risk using the Fibrosis-4 alone. CONCLUSIONS: The PRS may enhance HCC risk prediction effectiveness in the general population and refine risk stratification of the conventional clinical indicator.

Prenatal Parental Exposure to Metals and Birth Defects: A Prospective Birth Cohort Study.

While maternal exposure to high metal levels during pregnancy is an established risk factor for birth defects, the role of paternal exposure remains largely unknown. We aimed to assess the associations of prenatal paternal and maternal metal exposure and parental coexposure with birth defects in singletons. This study conducted within the Jiangsu Birth Cohort recruited couples in early pregnancy. We measured their urinary concentrations for 25 metals. A total of 1675 parent-offspring trios were included. The prevalence of any birth defects among infants by one year of age was 7.82%. Paternal-specific gravity-corrected urinary concentrations of titanium, vanadium, chromium, manganese, cobalt, nickel, copper, and selenium and maternal vanadium, chromium, nickel, copper, selenium, and antimony were associated with a 21-91% increased risk of birth defects after adjusting for covariates. These effects persisted after mutual adjustment for the spouse's exposure. Notably, when assessing the parental mixture effect by Bayesian kernel machine regression, paternal and maternal chromium exposure ranked the highest in relative importance. Parental coexposure to metal mixture showed a pronounced joint effect on the risk of overall birth defects, as well as for some specific subtypes. Our findings suggested a couple-based prevention strategy for metal exposure to reduce birth defects in offspring.

Maternal Hypertensive Disorder in Pregnancy and Childhood Strabismus in Offspring.

Importance: Maternal hypertensive disorder in pregnancy (HDP) might affect ocular health in offspring; however, its association with strabismus remains unclear. Objective: To examine the association of maternal HDP with overall and type-specific strabismus in offspring. Design, Setting, and Participants: In the Jiangsu Birth Cohort study, a population-based study in China, pregnant women were recruited from April 24, 2014, to November 30, 2018. A total of 6195 offspring had maternal HDP diagnosis information, of whom 3078 were excluded due to having no information on ocular alignment or due to having ocular diseases other than strabismus or refractive error. Offspring underwent ocular examinations at 3 years of age, completed May 21, 2022. Data were analyzed from May 28, 2022, through December 15, 2023. Exposure: Maternal HDP, categorized into hypertension and preeclampsia or with blood pressure (BP) well controlled (systolic BP, <130; diastolic BP, <80 mm Hg) and poorly controlled (systolic BP, ≥130; diastolic BP, ≥80 mm Hg). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the incidence of strabismus in offspring. Poisson generalized linear mixed models were used to estimate the association between maternal HDP and strabismus. Results: Among the included 3117 children (mean [SD] age, 36.30 [0.74] months; 1629 boys [52.3%]), 143 (4.6%) were exposed to maternal HDP and 368 (11.8%) had strabismus. Offspring exposed to maternal HDP had an 82% increased risk of overall strabismus (relative risk [RR], 1.82 [95% CI, 1.21-2.74]), an 82% increased risk of exophoria (RR, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.11-3.00]), and a 136% increased risk of intermittent exotropia (RR, 2.36 [95% CI, 1.13-4.93]) compared with unexposed offspring. When considering the type of maternal HDP, the risk for all strabismus was high for offspring exposed to preeclampsia (RR, 2.38 [95% CI, 1.39-4.09]) compared with unexposed offspring. When considering the BP control level of maternal HDP, the risk for all strabismus was high for offspring born to mothers with HDP and poorly controlled BP (RR, 2.07 [95% CI, 1.32-3.24]) compared with unexposed offspring. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that maternal HDP is associated with an increased risk of offspring strabismus. Early screening of strabismus might be recommended for offspring with maternal HDP. Further exploration of the underlying mechanism of the association between HDP and strabismus is warranted.

Association of prenatal multiple metal exposures with child neurodevelopment at 3 years of age: A prospective birth cohort study.

Prenatal exposures to toxic metals and trace elements have been linked to childhood neurodevelopment. However, existing evidence remains inconclusive, and further research is needed to investigate the mixture effects of multiple metal exposures on childhood neurodevelopment. We aimed to examine the associations between prenatal exposure to specific metals and metal mixtures and neurodevelopment in children. In this prospective cohort study, we used the multivariable linear regressions and the robust modified Poisson regressions to explore the associations of prenatal exposure to 25 specific metals with neurodevelopment among children at 3 years of age in 854 mother-child pairs from the Jiangsu Birth Cohort (JBC) Study. The Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) was employed to assess the joint effects of multiple metals on neurodevelopment. Prenatal manganese (Mn) exposure was negatively associated with the risk of non-optimal cognition development of children, while vanadium (V), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), antimony (Sb), cerium (Ce) and uranium (U) exposures were positively associated with the risk of non-optimal gross motor development. BKMR identified an interaction effect between Sb and Ce on non-optimal gross motor development. Additionally, an element risk score (ERS), representing the mixture effect of multiple metal exposures including V, Cu, Zn, Sb, Ce and U was constructed based on weights from a Poisson regression model. Children with ERS in the highest tertile had higher probability of non-optimal gross motor development (RR = 2.37, 95 % CI: 1.15, 4.86) versus those at the lowest tertile. Notably, Sb [conditional-posterior inclusion probabilities (cPIP) = 0.511] and U (cPIP = 0.386) mainly contributed to the increased risk of non-optimal gross motor development. The findings highlight the importance of paying attention to the joint effects of multiple metals on children's neurodevelopment. The ERS score may serve as an indicator of comprehensive metal exposure risk for children's neurodevelopment.

Development and evaluation of a risk prediction tool for risk-adapted screening of colorectal cancer in China.

Risk prediction tools for colorectal cancer (CRC) have potential to improve the efficiency of population-based screening by facilitating risk-adapted strategies. However, such an applicable tool has yet to be established in the Chinese population. In this study, a risk score was created using data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), a nationwide cohort study of 409,854 eligible participants. Diagnostic performance of the risk score was evaluated in an independent CRC screening programme, which included 91,575 participants who accepted colonoscopy at designed hospitals in Zhejiang Province, China. Over a median follow-up of 11.1 years, 3136 CRC cases were documented in the CKB. A risk score was created based on nine questionnaire-derived variables, showing moderate discrimination for 10-year CRC risk (C-statistic = 0.68, 95 % CI: 0.67-0.69). In the CRC screening programme, the detection rates of CRC were 0.25 %, 0.82 %, and 1.93 % in low-risk (score <6), intermediate-risk (score: 6-19), and high-risk (score >19) groups, respectively. The newly developed score exhibited a C-statistic of 0.65 (95 % CI: 0.63-0.66), surpassing the widely adopted tools such as the Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), modified APCS, and Korean Colorectal Screening scores (all C-statistics = 0.60). In conclusion, we developed a novel risk prediction tool that is useful to identify individuals at high risk of CRC. A user-friendly online calculator was also constructed to encourage broader adoption of the tool.

Association of serum metal levels with type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort and mediating effects of metabolites analysis in Chinese population.

Several studies have suggested an association between exposure to various metals and the onset of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, the results vary across different studies. We aimed to investigate the associations between serum metal concentrations and the risk of developing T2D among 8734 participants using a prospective cohort study design. We utilized inductively coupled plasmamass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to assess the serum concentrations of 27 metals. Cox regression was applied to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for the associations between serum metal concentrations on the risk of developing T2D. Additionally, 196 incident T2D cases and 208 healthy control participants were randomly selected for serum metabolite measurement using an untargeted metabolomics approach to evaluate the mediating role of serum metabolite in the relationship between serum metal concentrations and the risk of developing T2D with a nested casecontrol study design. In the cohort study, after Bonferroni correction, the serum concentrations of zinc (Zn), mercury (Hg), and thallium (Tl) were positively associated with the risk of developing T2D, whereas the serum concentrations of manganese (Mn), molybdenum (Mo), barium (Ba), lutetium (Lu), and lead (Pb) were negatively associated with the risk of developing T2D. After adding these eight metals, the predictive ability increased significantly compared with that of the traditional clinical model (AUC: 0.791 vs. 0.772, P=8.85×10-5). In the nested casecontrol study, a machine learning analysis revealed that the serum concentrations of 14 out of 1579 detected metabolites were associated with the risk of developing T2D. According to generalized linear regression models, 7 of these metabolites were significantly associated with the serum concentrations of the identified metals. The mediation analysis showed that two metabolites (2-methyl-1,2-dihydrophthalazin-1-one and mestranol) mediated 46.81% and 58.70%, respectively, of the association between the serum Pb concentration and the risk of developing T2D. Our study suggested that serum Mn, Zn, Mo, Ba, Lu, Hg, Tl, and Pb were associated with T2D risk. Two metabolites mediated the associations between the serum Pb concentration and the risk of developing T2D.

Inter- and trans-generational impacts of real-world PM2.5 exposure on male-specific primary hypogonadism.

Exposure to PM2.5, a harmful type of air pollution, has been associated with compromised male reproductive health; however, it remains unclear whether such exposure can elicit transgenerational effects on male fertility. Here, we aim to examine the effect of paternal exposure to real-world PM2.5 on the reproductive health of male offspring. We have observed that paternal exposure to real-world PM2.5 can lead to transgenerational primary hypogonadism in a sex-selective manner, and we have also confirmed this phenotype by using an external model. Mechanically, we have identified small RNAs (sRNAs) that play a critical role in mediating these transgenerational effects. Specifically, miR6240 and piR016061, which are present in F0 PM sperm, regulate intergenerational transmission by targeting Lhcgr and Nsd1, respectively. We have also uncovered that piR033435 and piR006695 indirectly regulate F1 PM sperm methylation by binding to the 3'-untranslated region of Tet1 mRNA. The reduced expression of Tet1 resulted in hypermethylation of several testosterone synthesis genes, including Lhcgr and Gnas, impaired Leydig cell function and ultimately led to transgenerational primary hypogonadism. Our findings provide insights into the mechanisms underlying the transgenerational effects of paternal PM2.5 exposure on reproductive health, highlighting the crucial role played by sRNAs in mediating these effects. The findings underscore the significance of paternal pre-conception interventions in alleviating the adverse effects of environmental pollutants on reproductive health.

Associations of combined phenotypic aging and genetic risk with incident cancer: A prospective cohort study.

Background: Age is the most important risk factor for cancer, but aging rates are heterogeneous across individuals. We explored a new measure of aging-Phenotypic Age (PhenoAge)-in the risk prediction of site-specific and overall cancer. Methods: Using Cox regression models, we examined the association of Phenotypic Age Acceleration (PhenoAgeAccel) with cancer incidence by genetic risk group among 374,463 participants from the UK Biobank. We generated PhenoAge using chronological age and nine biomarkers, PhenoAgeAccel after subtracting the effect of chronological age by regression residual, and an incidence-weighted overall cancer polygenic risk score (CPRS) based on 20 cancer site-specific polygenic risk scores (PRSs). Results: Compared with biologically younger participants, those older had a significantly higher risk of overall cancer, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.22 (95% confidence interval, 1.18-1.27) in men, and 1.26 (1.22-1.31) in women, respectively. A joint effect of genetic risk and PhenoAgeAccel was observed on overall cancer risk, with HRs of 2.29 (2.10-2.51) for men and 1.94 (1.78-2.11) for women with high genetic risk and older PhenoAge compared with those with low genetic risk and younger PhenoAge. PhenoAgeAccel was negatively associated with the number of healthy lifestyle factors (Beta = -1.01 in men, p<0.001; Beta = -0.98 in women, p<0.001). Conclusions: Within and across genetic risk groups, older PhenoAge was consistently related to an increased risk of incident cancer with adjustment for chronological age and the aging process could be retarded by adherence to a healthy lifestyle. Funding: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82230110, 82125033, 82388102 to GJ; 82273714 to MZ); and the Excellent Youth Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20220100 to MZ).

Age is a major risk factor for cancer. Other factors, such as lifestyle or environmental exposures, may increase or mitigate cancer risks. Biological age, which considers accelerated aging processes, may, however, better predict cancer risk than chronological age. Some scientists propose using biological aging measures as an alternative for assessing cancer and other age-related disease risks, as these markers may provide a more accurate assessment of the various factors contributing to cancer risk. PhenoAge, a measure of biological aging processes in the body, could provide an alternative way to assessing aging-related cancer risks. This tool utilizes an individual's chronological age and nine biomarkers of aging processes. It has the potential to identify individuals whose aging process is accelerated compared to their peers, potentially indicating an increased cancer risk. This information may empower them to make lifestyle changes that could significantly reduce their risk. To assess the suitability of PhenoAge, Bian, Ma et al. used nine clinical chemistry biomarkers and chronological age to calculate PhenoAge in 374,463 participants from the UK Biobank. Their findings revealed that people with older PhenoAges ­ regardless of their genetic risk profiles ­ have an increased risk of cancer. Individuals with higher PhenoAge scores, indicating accelerated biological aging, had a roughly 25 percent higher risk of developing cancer. Individuals with both a high genetic risk and higher PhenoAge score had roughly double the risk of cancer. People with lower PhenoAges were more likely to have healthier lifestyles. These results suggest that adopting healthier lifestyles may slow the aging process and reduce cancer risk. While the analyses conducted by Bian, Ma et al. provide promising insights, they also underscore the need for further research. PhenoAge may offer a way to assess biological aging and identify individuals at higher risk of cancer. Those with higher PhenoAge scores may benefit from earlier cancer screening, and adopting a healthier lifestyle could potentially slow down the aging process and reduce their cancer risk. However, more studies in more diverse cohorts of people are needed to confirm that PhenoAge is a reliable marker for cancer risk and to test interventions to slow aging and reduce cancer risks in individuals with accelerated aging.

First-line camrelizumab (a PD-1 inhibitor) plus apatinib (an VEGFR-2 inhibitor) and chemotherapy for advanced gastric cancer (SPACE): a phase 1 study.

Patients with advanced gastric cancer typically face a grim prognosis. This phase 1a (dose escalation) and phase 1b (dose expansion) study investigated safety and efficacy of first-line camrelizumab plus apatinib and chemotherapy for advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma. The primary endpoints included maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in phase 1a and objective response rate (ORR) across phase 1a and 1b. Phase 1a tested three dose regimens of camrelizumab, apatinib, oxaliplatin, and S-1. Dose regimen 1: camrelizumab 200 mg on day 1, apatinib 250 mg every other day, oxaliplatin 100 mg/m² on day 1, and S-1 40 mg twice a day on days 1-14. Dose regimen 2: same as dose regimen 1, but oxaliplatin 130 mg/m². Dose regimen 3: same as dose regimen 2, but apatinib 250 mg daily. Thirty-four patients were included (9 in phase 1a, 25 in phase 1b). No dose-limiting toxicities occurred so no MTD was identified. Dose 3 was set for the recommended phase 2 doses and administered in phase 1b. The confirmed ORR was 76.5% (95% CI 58.8-89.3). The median progression-free survival was 8.4 months (95% CI 5.9-not evaluable [NE]), and the median overall survival (OS) was not mature (11.6-NE). Ten patients underwent surgery after treatment and the multidisciplinary team evaluation. Among 24 patients without surgery, the median OS was 19.6 months (7.8-NE). Eighteen patients (52.9%) developed grade ≥ 3 treatment-emergent adverse events. Camrelizumab plus apatinib and chemotherapy showed favorable clinical outcomes and manageable safety for untreated advanced gastric cancer (ChiCTR2000034109).

Comprehensive functional interrogation of susceptibility loci in GWASs identified KIAA0391 as a novel oncogenic driver via regulating pyroptosis in NSCLC.

Approximately 51 non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) risk loci have been identified by genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We conducted a high throughput RNA-interference (RNAi) screening to identify the candidate causal genes in NSCLC risk loci. KIAA0391 at 14q13.1 had the highest score and could promote proliferation and metastasis of NSCLC in vitro and in vivo. We next prioritized rs3783313 as a causal variant at 14q13.1, by integrating a large-scale population study consisting of 27,120 lung cancer cases and 27,355 controls, functional annotation, and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analysis. Then we found that rs3783313 could facilitate a promoter-enhancer interaction to upregulate KIAA0391 expression by affecting the affinity of transcription factor NFYA. Mechanistically, KIAA0391 knockdown dramatically influenced pyroptosis-related pathways and increased the expression of CASP1. And KIAA0391 transcriptionally repressed CASP1 by binding to SMAD2 and induced an anti-pyroptosis phenotype, promoting tumorigenesis of NSCLC, which provides new insights and potential target for NSCLC.

Type 2 diabetes, glycaemic traits and upper gastrointestinal cancer risk: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been linked with site-specific upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancers during the past decades, but associations are still inconclusive. This study aimed to determine the association between T2D, glycaemic traits (random blood glucose and HbA1c) and UGI cancer (oesophageal and gastric cancer). METHODS: In the present study, based on the large-scale prospective cohort of UK Biobank, we included 452 631 eligible participants. T2D was defined according to baseline self-report data, clinical data and biochemistry data. Random blood glucose and HbA1c were measured at baseline. Polygenic risk score was used to classify individuals into different UGI cancer genetic risks. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.26 years (IQR: 9.47-10.97), 1392 incident UGI cancer cases were identified. T2D was significantly associated with a 44% increment in UGI cancer risk (95% CI 1.22 to 1.70, p<0.001). Moreover, per SD increase in random blood glucose and HbA1c was associated with 7% (95% CI 1.03 to 1.12, p<0.001) and 6% (95% CI 1.04 to 1.09, p<0.001) increased hazards of developing UGI cancer, respectively. Patients with T2D at high genetic risk had a 2.33-fold hazard of UGI cancer (95% CI 1.66 to 3.28, p<0.001), compared with non-T2D individuals at low genetic risk. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that T2D and elevated levels of glycaemic traits may be risk factors for incident UGI cancer. Individuals with a high genetic risk and T2D have a significantly increased risk of developing UGI cancer.