Risk for Brain Arteriovenous Malformation Rupture During Pregnancy and Puerperium.

BACKGROUND: The hemorrhage risk of unruptured and untreated cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) has been shown to be higher for female patients than male patients in their child bearing ages. Although it has been neurosurgical practice to advise female patients in their childbearing ages to postpone pregnancy until proven AVM obliteration, there is no literature consensus regarding this potential hemorrhage risk increase. OBJECTIVE: To accurately quantify the risk increase for AVM hemorrhage during pregnancy. METHODS: This study is based on data from previous publications, consisting of known age at the first AVM hemorrhage in 3425 patients. The risk increase during pregnancy could be calculated from the difference in age distribution for the first AVM hemorrhage between male patients and female patients, taking the average pregnancy time per female into account. A comparison was also made with data for all hospital discharges (13 751) in Germany 2008 to 2018 with the diagnosis brain AVM. RESULTS: The average pregnancy and puerperium time was 1.54 years per female in the patient population, which was used to determine the annual AVM hemorrhage risk during pregnancy to be around 9%. The increased risk during pregnancy was further evidenced by analysis of a subgroup of 105 female patients, for which pregnancy status at the time of hemorrhage was known. CONCLUSION: The quantified annual risk for AVM hemorrhage during pregnancy is about 3 times higher than that of male patients at corresponding age. This provides an important basis for advising female patients with patent AVMs about the increased risk for hemorrhage that a pregnancy would entail.

A novel method to determine the natural course of unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations without the need for follow-up information.

OBJECTIVEThere is a strong clinical need to accurately determine the average annual hemorrhage risk in unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs). This need motivated the present initiative to use data from a uniquely large patient population and design a novel methodology to achieve a risk determination with unprecedented accuracy. The authors also aimed to determine the impact of sex, pregnancy, AVM volume, and location on the risk for AVM rupture.METHODSThe present study does not consider any specific management of the AVMs, but only uses the age distribution for the first hemorrhage, the shape of which becomes universal for a sufficiently large set of patients. For this purpose, the authors collected observations, including age at first hemorrhage and AVM size and location, in 3425 patients. The average annual risk for hemorrhage could then be determined from the simple relation that the number of patients with their first hemorrhage at a specific age equals the risk for hemorrhage times the number of patients at risk at that age. For a subset of the patients, the information regarding occurrence of AVM hemorrhage after treatment of the first hemorrhage was used for further analysis of the influence on risk from AVM location and pregnancy.RESULTSThe age distribution for the first AVM hemorrhage was used to determine the average annual risk for hemorrhage in unruptured AVMs at adult ages (25-60 years). It was concluded to be 3.1% ± 0.2% and unrelated to AVM volume but influenced by its location, with the highest risk for centrally located AVMs. The hemorrhage risk was found to be significantly higher for females in their fertile years.CONCLUSIONSThe present methodology allowed the authors to determine the average annual risk for the first AVM hemorrhage at 3.1% ± 0.2% without the need for individual patient follow-up. This methodology has potential also for other similar types of investigations. The conclusion that centrally located AVMs carry a higher risk was confirmed by follow-up information. Follow-up information was also used to conclude that pregnancy causes a substantially greater AVM hemorrhage risk. The age distribution for AVM hemorrhage is incompatible with AVMs present at birth having the same hemorrhage risk as AVMs in adults. Plausibly, they instead develop in the early years of life, possibly with a lower hemorrhage risk during that time period.

Warm summers during the Younger Dryas cold reversal.

The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.

Recurrent bursts via linear processes in turbulent environments.

Large-scale instabilities occurring in the presence of small-scale turbulent fluctuations are frequently observed in geophysical or astrophysical contexts but are difficult to reproduce in the laboratory. Using extensive numerical simulations, we report here on intense recurrent bursts of turbulence in plane Poiseuille flow rotating about a spanwise axis. A simple model based on the linear instability of the mean flow can predict the structure and time scale of the nearly periodic and self-sustained burst cycles. Poiseuille flow is suggested as a prototype for future studies of low-dimensional dynamics embedded in strongly turbulent environments.