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BACKGROUND: Penile cancer (PeCa) is a rare cancer with surgical options that affect patients' quality-of-life. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are uncommonly utilized in this cohort despite their several patient-centered benefits and there are recommendations to further digitalize PROMs. This prospective, population-based study aimed to report the development and feasibility of a novel electronic patient-reported outcome measures (ePROMs) questionnaire for patients with PeCa. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A novel ePROMs questionnaire was developed and sent to patients 3 days before outpatient clinic appointments. The questionnaire included up to 30 items on patient symptomology and quality-of-life, including a self-reported quality-of-life score (rated 0 being worst and 100 being best). Data were collected for patients followed up between August 2021 and May 2022. The primary feasibility outcomes, adherence and engagement, were measured by response and drop-out rates. Differences in responders and nonresponders were also ascertained. Secondary outcomes explored the clinical utility of the questionnaire. Responders were subcategorized into 3 groups: circumcision (Ci), partial penectomy (PP) or total penectomy (TP) and differences were analyzed. This study was approved by the local Trust Governance Panel, including for ethical considerations. RESULTS: 220 adult males were sent ePROMs questionnaires, and 141 (64%) responded initially. The mean dropout rate of subsequent questionnaires was 56%. The maximum number of questionnaires sent to and completed by a patient was 8 (n = 1). Nonresponders were older (P < .0001), with poorer performance status (P < .0001) and lower body mass index (P = .0288). TP patients reported the lowest median quality-of-life score 68.50 (8-99), followed by the Ci group (72.0, 37-94) and the PP group (76.0, 10-99). CONCLUSIONS: Patients initially engaged and adhered to the ePROMs questionnaire but struggled to maintain this over time. Clinical data gathered by the questionnaire may be utilized to inform patient care. The questionnaire requires additional validation, research, and education.
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Importance: Although most women with BRCA-associated breast cancer choose bilateral mastectomy, current guidelines support breast-conserving therapy as an option. As the indications for genetic testing expand and targeted therapies emerge, understanding the outcomes of breast-conserving therapy in the population of patients choosing breast conservation is important. Objective: To describe the clinical outcomes of women with BRCA-associated breast cancer who were treated with breast-conserving therapy, including the risks of ipsilateral and contralateral cancer events and bilateral mastectomy-free survival. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study conducted at a single-institution academic national comprehensive cancer center included 172 women identified from a prospectively maintained database who had pathogenic BRCA1/2 variants and were treated with breast-conserving therapy from January 1, 1977, to December 31, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Clinical and pathologic characteristics for patients with BRCA1 and BRCA2 were compared, and estimates of overall survival, bilateral mastectomy-free survival, distant disease-free survival, risk of ipsilateral breast cancer, and risk of contralateral cancer were computed. Results: The cohort included 172 women (mean [SD] age, 47.1 [11.7] years), with 42 (24.4%) receiving a diagnosis of breast cancer prior to 40 years of age. Compared with BRCA2 variant carriers (80 [46.5%]), women with BRCA1 variants (92 [53.5%]) were younger at breast cancer diagnosis and tended to have more advanced tumors, which were more likely to be hormone receptor negative and higher grade. At a median follow-up of 11.8 years (IQR, 5.7-18.2 years), estimates of 10-year survival and risk were: overall survival, 88.5% (95% CI, 83.1%-94.2%); bilateral mastectomy-free survival, 70.7% (95% CI, 63.3%-78.9%); risk of an ipsilateral breast cancer event, 12.2% (95% CI, 5.8%-18.2%); and risk of contralateral cancer, 21.3% (95% CI, 13.3%-28.6%). Risks continued to increase after 10 years of follow-up. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, although women with breast cancer and pathogenic BRCA1/2 variants treated with breast-conserving therapy had above-average risks of ipsilateral and contralateral breast cancer events, most did not have another cancer event and remained bilateral mastectomy free. These findings may be useful for informing patients with BRCA variants choosing breast conservation.
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Neoplasias de la Mama , Mastectomía Segmentaria , Humanos , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Neoplasias de la Mama/genética , Neoplasias de la Mama/cirugía , Adulto , Proteína BRCA2/genética , Proteína BRCA1/genética , Estudios de Cohortes , Resultado del Tratamiento , Supervivencia sin EnfermedadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Understanding the epidemiology of carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii complex (CRAB) and the patients impacted is an important step toward informing better infection prevention and control practices and improving public health response. METHODS: Active, population-based surveillance was conducted for CRAB in 9 U.S. sites from January 1 to December 31, 2019. Medical records were reviewed, isolates were collected and characterized including antimicrobial susceptibility testing and whole genome sequencing. RESULTS: Among 136 incident cases in 2019, 66 isolates were collected and characterized; 56.5% were from cases who were male, 54.5% were from persons of Black or African American race with non-Hispanic ethnicity, and the median age was 63.5 years. Most isolates, 77.2%, were isolated from urine, and 50.0% were collected in the outpatient setting; 72.7% of isolates harbored an acquired carbapenemase gene (aCP), predominantly blaOXA-23 or blaOXA-24/40; however, an isolate with blaNDM was identified. The antimicrobial agent with the most in vitro activity was cefiderocol (96.9% of isolates were susceptible). CONCLUSIONS: Our surveillance found that CRAB isolates in the U.S. commonly harbor an aCP, have an antimicrobial susceptibility profile that is defined as difficult-to-treat resistance, and epidemiologically are similar regardless of the presence of an aCP.
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BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.
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Mortalidad del Niño , Programas de Inmunización , Vacunación , Humanos , Lactante , Preescolar , Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricos , Mortalidad del Niño/tendencias , Mortalidad Infantil/tendencias , Niño , Salud Global , Recién Nacido , Adulto , Adolescente , Historia del Siglo XX , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Estadísticos , Salud Pública , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Many countries with tropical reef systems face hard choices preserving coral reefs in the face of climate change on limited budgets. One approach to maximising regional reef resilience is targeting management efforts and resources at reefs that export large numbers of larvae to other reefs. However, this requires reef connectivity to be quantified. To map coral connectivity in the Seychelles reef system we carried out a population genomic study of the Porites lutea species complex using 241 sequenced colonies from multiple islands. To identify oceanographic drivers of this connectivity and quantify variability, we further used a 2 km resolution regional ocean simulation coupled with a larval dispersal model to predict the flow of coral larvae between reef sites. Patterns of admixture and gene flow are broadly supported by model predictions, but the realised connectivity is greater than that predicted from model simulations. Both methods detected a biogeographic dispersal barrier between the Inner and Outer Islands of Seychelles. However, this barrier is permeable and substantial larval transport is possible across Seychelles, particularly for one of two putative species found in our genomic study. The broad agreement between predicted connectivity and observed genetic patterns supports the use of such larval dispersal simulations in reef system management in Seychelles and the wider region.
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Antozoos , Arrecifes de Coral , Animales , Seychelles , Antozoos/genética , Genética de Población , LarvaRESUMEN
Importance: Patients should have an active role in decisions about pursuing or forgoing specific therapies in treatment de-escalation trials. Objective: To evaluate longitudinal patient-reported outcomes (PROs) encompassing decisional comfort and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among patients who elected to enroll in a clinical trial evaluating radiotherapy alone, without breast surgery, for invasive breast cancers with exceptional response to neoadjuvant systemic therapy (NST). Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective, single-group, phase 2 clinical trial at 7 US medical centers. Women aged 40 years or older with invasive cT1-2 N0-1 M0 triple-negative or human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (ERBB2)-positive breast cancer with no pathologic evidence of residual disease following standard NST enrolled from March 6, 2017, to November 9, 2021. Validated PRO measures were administered at baseline and 6, 12, and 36 months post-radiotherapy. Data were analyzed from January to February 2023. Interventions: PRO measures included the Decision Regret Scale (DRS), Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Lymphedema (FACT-B+4), and Breast Cancer Treatment Outcomes Scale (BCTOS). Main Outcomes and Measures: Changes in PRO measure scores and subscores over time. Results: Among 31 patients, the median (IQR) age was 61 (56-66) years, 26 (84%) were White, and 26 (84%) were non-Hispanic. A total of 15 (48%) had triple-negative disease and 16 (52%) had ERBB2-positive disease. Decisional comfort was high at baseline (median [IQR] DRS score 10 [0-25] on a 0-100 scale, with higher scores indicating higher decisional regret) and significantly increased over time (median [IQR] DRS score at 36 months, 0 [0-20]; P < .001). HRQOL was relatively high at baseline (median [IQR] FACT-B composite score 121 [111-134] on a 0-148 scale, with higher scores indicating higher HRQOL) and significantly increased over time (median [IQR] FACT-B score at 36 months, 128 [116-137]; P = .04). Perceived differences between the affected breast and contralateral breast were minimal at baseline (median [IQR] BCTOS score 1.05 [1.00-1.23] on a 1-4 scale, with higher scores indicating greater differences) and increased significantly over time (median [IQR] BCTOS score at 36 months, 1.36 [1.18-1.64]; P < .001). At 36 months postradiotherapy, the cosmetic subscore was 0.45 points higher than baseline (95% CI, 0.16-0.74; P = .001), whereas function, pain, and edema subscores were not significantly different than baseline. Conclusions and Relevance: In this nonrandomized phase 2 clinical trial, analysis of PROs demonstrated an overall positive experience for trial participants, with longitudinal improvements in decisional comfort and overall HRQOL over time and minimal lasting adverse effects of therapy. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02945579.
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Neoplasias de la Mama , Terapia Neoadyuvante , Humanos , Femenino , Estudios Prospectivos , Calidad de Vida , Neoplasias de la Mama/tratamiento farmacológico , Neoplasias de la Mama/cirugía , Medición de Resultados Informados por el PacienteRESUMEN
The Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre (BG) is a wind-driven reservoir of relatively fresh seawater, situated beneath time-mean anticyclonic atmospheric circulation, and is covered by mobile pack ice for most of the year. Liquid freshwater accumulation in and expulsion from this gyre is of critical interest due to its potential to affect the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and due to the importance of freshwater in modulating vertical fluxes of heat, nutrients and carbon in the ocean, and exchanges of heat and moisture with the atmosphere. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that wind-driven sea ice transport into/from the BG region influences the freshwater content of the gyre and its variability. To test this hypothesis, we use the results of a coordinated climate response function experiment with four ice-ocean models, in combination with targeted experiments using a regional setup of the MITgcm, in which we rotate the surface wind forcing vectors (thereby changing the ageostrophic component of these winds). Our results show that, via an effect on the net thermodynamic growth rate, anomalies in sea ice transport into the BG affect liquid freshwater adjustment. Specifically, increased ice import increases freshwater retention in the gyre, whereas ice export decreases freshwater in the gyre. Our results demonstrate that uncertainty in the ageostrophic component of surface winds, and in the dynamic sea ice response to these winds, has important implications for ice thermodynamics and freshwater. This sensitivity may explain some of the observed inter-model spread in simulations of Beaufort Gyre freshwater and its adjustment in response to wind forcing.
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INTRODUCTION: Patient and caregiver engagement is critical, and often compromised, at points of transition between care settings, which are more common, and more challenging, for patients with complex medical problems. The consequences of poor care transitions are well-documented, both for patients and caregivers, and for the healthcare system. With an ageing population, there is greater need to focus on care transition experiences of older adults, who are often more medically complex, and more likely to require care from multiple providers across settings. The overall goal of this study is to understand what factors facilitate or hinder patient and caregiver engagement through transitions in care, and how these current engagement practices align with a previously developed engagement framework (CHOICE Framework). This study also aims to co-develop resources needed to support engagement and identify how these resources and materials should be implemented in practice. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study uses ethnographic approaches to explore the dynamics of patient and caregiver engagement, or lack thereof, during care transitions across three regions within Ontario. With the help of a front-line champion, patients (n=18-24), caregivers (n=18-24) and healthcare providers (n=36-54) are recruited from an acute care hospital unit (or similar) and followed through their care journey. Data are collected using in-depth semi-structured interviews. Workshops will be held to co-develop strategies and a plan for future implementation of resources and materials. Analysis of the data will use inductive and deductive coding techniques. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics clearance was obtained through the Western University Research Ethics Board, University of Windsor Research Ethics Board and the University of Waterloo Office of Research Ethics. The findings from this study are intended to contribute valuable evidence to further bridge the knowledge to practice gap in patient and caregiver engagement through care transitions. Findings will be disseminated through publications, conference presentations and reports.
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Cuidadores , Transferencia de Pacientes , Humanos , Anciano , Ontario , Investigación Cualitativa , HospitalesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics have been greatly modulated by human contact behaviour. To curb the spread of the virus, global efforts focused on implementing both Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) and pharmaceutical interventions such as vaccination. This study was conducted to explore the influence of COVID-19 vaccination status and risk perceptions related to SARS-CoV-2 on the number of social contacts of individuals in 16 European countries. METHODS: We used data from longitudinal surveys conducted in the 16 European countries to measure social contact behaviour in the course of the pandemic. The data consisted of representative panels of participants in terms of gender, age and region of residence in each country. The surveys were conducted in several rounds between December 2020 and September 2021 and comprised of 29,292 participants providing a total of 111,103 completed surveys. We employed a multilevel generalized linear mixed effects model to explore the influence of risk perceptions and COVID-19 vaccination status on the number of social contacts of individuals. RESULTS: The results indicated that perceived severity played a significant role in social contact behaviour during the pandemic after controlling for other variables (p-value < 0.001). More specifically, participants who had low or neutral levels of perceived severity reported 1.25 (95% Confidence intervals (CI) 1.13 - 1.37) and 1.10 (95% CI 1.00 - 1.21) times more contacts compared to those who perceived COVID-19 to be a serious illness, respectively. Additionally, vaccination status was also a significant predictor of contacts (p-value < 0.001), with vaccinated individuals reporting 1.31 (95% CI 1.23 - 1.39) times higher number of contacts than the non-vaccinated. Furthermore, individual-level factors played a more substantial role in influencing contact behaviour than country-level factors. CONCLUSION: Our multi-country study yields significant insights on the importance of risk perceptions and vaccination in behavioral changes during a pandemic emergency. The apparent increase in social contact behaviour following vaccination would require urgent intervention in the event of emergence of an immune escaping variant.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Vacunación , PercepciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The availability and extent of breastfeeding-specific surgical training has not been previously described. We aimed to survey breast surgeons on their lactation education and desire for additional knowledge. METHODS: Members of the American Society of Breast Surgeons were invited via email to anonymously complete an electronic survey from 27 October 2021 to 23 January 2022. The survey content included demographic information, sources of lactation education, and desired topics and methods for further training. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: A total of 2698 surveys were delivered and 542 (20.1%) completed. While nearly all respondents (99%) reported treating lactating patients at least once or twice per year, 78% reported that their training was inadequate. The most frequently cited sources of lactation information were peer-to-peer informal knowledge sharing (50%) and personal experience with breastfeeding (44%). Nearly all respondents (99%) agreed that formal lactation education would benefit breast surgeons. Specific topics of interest included management of patients with complications of lactation (48%), management of lactating patients with a new diagnosis of breast cancer (47%), and counseling patients with pregnancy-associated breast cancer who desire to breastfeed (46%). The most frequently recommended educational formats included presentation at a national conference (60%), evidence-based management guidelines (58%), webinar (55%), and workshop/course (47%). CONCLUSION: Breast surgeons self-report minimal formal training in the management of benign and malignant breast disease in lactating patients and strong desire for expanded education. Development of clinical practice guidelines and additional educational content for surgeons should be considered to meet the needs of this patient population.
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Neoplasias de la Mama , Cirujanos , Embarazo , Femenino , Humanos , Estados Unidos , Lactancia , Neoplasias de la Mama/cirugía , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Lactancia MaternaRESUMEN
BackgroundThe burden of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) varies across the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA).AimWe aimed to update the 2017 HBV prevalence estimates in EU/EEA countries and the United Kingdom for 2018 to 2021.MethodsWe undertook a systematic review, adding to HBV prevalence estimates from an existing (2005-2017) database. Databases were searched for original English-language research articles including HBV surface antigen prevalence estimates among the general population, pregnant women, first-time blood donors (FTB), men who have sex with men (MSM), migrants and people in prison. Country experts contributed grey literature data. Risk of bias was assessed using a quality assessment framework.FindingsThe update provided 147 new prevalence estimates across the region (updated total n = 579). Median HBV prevalence in the general population was 0.5% and the highest was 3.8% (Greece). Among FTB, the highest prevalence was 0.8% (Lithuania). Estimates among pregnant women were highest in Romania and Italy (5.1%). Among migrants, the highest estimate was 31.7% (Spain). Relative to 2017 estimates, median prevalence among pregnant women decreased by 0.5% (to 0.3%) and increased by 0.9% (to 5.8%) among migrants. Among MSM, the highest estimate was 3.4% (Croatia). Prevalence among people in prison was highest in Greece (8.3%) and the median prevalence increased by 0.6% (to 2.1%).ConclusionsThe HBV prevalence is low in the general population and confined to risk populations in most European countries with some exceptions. Screening and treatment should be targeted to people in prison and migrants.
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Hepatitis B Crónica , Hepatitis B , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Embarazo , Unión Europea , Hepatitis B/diagnóstico , Hepatitis B/epidemiología , Virus de la Hepatitis B , Hepatitis B Crónica/diagnóstico , Hepatitis B Crónica/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1-4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models' predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models' forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models' past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models' forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models' forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models' forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1-4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 (https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).
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COVID-19 , Enfermedades Transmisibles , Epidemias , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , Predicción , Modelos Estadísticos , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
The overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas involves the transformation of warm Atlantic waters into cold, dense overflows. These overflow waters return to the North Atlantic and form the headwaters to the deep limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The Nordic Seas are thus a key component of the AMOC. However, little is known about the response of the overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas to future climate change. Here we show using global climate models that, in contrast to the North Atlantic, the simulated density-space overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas increases throughout most of the 21st century as a result of enhanced horizontal circulation and a strengthened zonal density gradient. The increased Nordic Seas overturning is furthermore manifested in the overturning circulation in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. A strengthened Nordic Seas overturning circulation could therefore be a stabilizing factor in the future AMOC.
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BACKGROUND: Most countries have enacted some restrictions to reduce social contacts to slow down disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic. For nearly two years, individuals likely also adopted new behaviours to avoid pathogen exposure based on personal circumstances. We aimed to understand the way in which different factors affect social contacts - a critical step to improving future pandemic responses. METHODS: The analysis was based on repeated cross-sectional contact survey data collected in a standardized international study from 21 European countries between March 2020 and March 2022. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a clustered bootstrap by country and by settings (at home, at work, or in other settings). Where data were available, contact rates during the study period were compared with rates recorded prior to the pandemic. We fitted censored individual-level generalized additive mixed models to examine the effects of various factors on the number of social contacts. RESULTS: The survey recorded 463,336 observations from 96,456 participants. In all countries where comparison data were available, contact rates over the previous two years were substantially lower than those seen prior to the pandemic (approximately from over 10 to < 5), predominantly due to fewer contacts outside the home. Government restrictions imposed immediate effect on contacts, and these effects lingered after the restrictions were lifted. Across countries, the relationships between national policy, individual perceptions, or personal circumstances determining contacts varied. CONCLUSIONS: Our study, coordinated at the regional level, provides important insights into the understanding of the factors associated with social contacts to support future infectious disease outbreak responses.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudios Transversales , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Response to neoadjuvant systemic therapy (NST) for breast cancer enables tailoring of subsequent therapy. Image-guided breast biopsy after NST can accurately predict a pathologic complete response (pCR). The feasibility phase of the clinical trial reported here assesses omission of breast surgery followed by radiotherapy in terms of local recurrence before trial expansion. STUDY DESIGN: Women with unicentric, cT1-2 N0-1 M0 triple-negative (TNBC) or human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive breast cancer (HER2+BC) cancer with <2 cm residual disease on post-NST imaging were eligible to enroll. If no residual invasive or in situ disease was identified by image-guided, vacuum-assisted core biopsy (VACB), breast surgery was omitted, and radiotherapy delivered. The primary endpoint for the feasibility phase was ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence at 6 months. If any recurrence occurred during the feasibility phase the trial would halt. RESULTS: Thirteen patients were enrolled from March 2017 to October 2018. The mean age was 60.8 years (range 51 to 75) and most patients were White (69.2%) and non-Hispanic/Latino (84.6%). All patients had invasive ductal carcinoma (6 TNBC, 7 HER2+BC). Mean tumor size was 2.4 cm (range 0.9 to 5.0) before NST and 0.7 cm (range 0 to 1.8) after NST. Seven patients (53.8%) had residual disease identified on VACB; the remaining 6 (46.2%) comprised the feasibility cohort. At a median follow-up of 44.3 months (range 41.3 to 51.3) there was no ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence in this cohort. CONCLUSIONS: These early data suggest that omission of breast surgery in patients with invasive TNBC and HER2+BC with no evidence of residual disease on standardized VACB after NST is potentially feasible. Results from the expansion phase of this clinical trial will be reported per protocol prespecified analyses.
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Neoplasias de la Mama , Neoplasias de la Mama Triple Negativas , Femenino , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Terapia Neoadyuvante/métodos , Neoplasias de la Mama Triple Negativas/tratamiento farmacológico , Estudios Prospectivos , Estudios de Factibilidad , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/prevención & control , Neoplasias de la Mama/cirugía , Neoplasias de la Mama/tratamiento farmacológico , Receptor ErbB-2/metabolismo , Receptor ErbB-2/uso terapéutico , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
Background: Pain management for people with dementia is challenging. There is limited understanding on the experiences of pain management from people with dementia, but also from those who support them. This study synthesised the qualitative evidence to explore the perspectives of people with dementia, their family, friends, carers and healthcare professionals to pain management. Methods: A systematic literature review was undertaken of published and unpublished literature databases (to 01 November 2021). All qualitative research studies reporting the perspectives of people with dementia, their family, friends, carers and healthcare professionals to managing pain were included. Eligible studies were appraised using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) qualitative appraisal tool. A meta-ethnography analysis approach was adopted, with findings assessed against the GRADE-CERQual framework. Results: Of the 3994 citations screened, 33 studies were eligible. Seven themes were identified from the data. There was moderate evidence from six studies indicating inequity of pain management for people with dementia. There was moderate evidence from 22 studies regarding anxieties on cascading pain information. There was moderate evidence from nine studies that familiarisation of the person with pain, their preferences, routines and behaviours were key factors to better pain management. Consistently, carers and healthcare professionals had a low opinion of the management of pain for people with dementia, with tensions over the 'best' treatment options to offer. This was associated with poor training and understanding on how pain 'should' be managed. Conclusion: The findings highlight the challenges faced by people with dementia and pain, and those who support them. Improvements in education for people who support these individuals would be valuable across health and social care pathways. Supporting family members and relatives on pain experiences and treatment options could improve awareness to improve quality of life for people with dementia and pain and those who support them.
RESUMEN
Vast quantities of debris are beaching at remote islands in the western Indian Ocean. We carry out marine dispersal simulations incorporating currents, waves, winds, beaching, and sinking, for both terrestrial and marine sources of debris, to predict where this debris comes from. Our results show that most terrestrial debris beaching at these remote western Indian Ocean islands drifts from Indonesia, India, and Sri Lanka. Debris associated with fisheries and shipping also poses a major risk. Debris accumulation at Seychelles is likely seasonal, peaking during February-April. This pattern is driven by monsoonal winds and may be amplified during positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El-Niño events. Our results underline the vulnerability of small island states to marine plastic pollution, and are a crucial step towards improved management of the issue. The trajectories used in this study are available for download, and our analyses can be rerun under different parameter choices.
Asunto(s)
Monitoreo del Ambiente , Residuos , Seychelles , Océano Índico , Residuos/análisis , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Contaminación del Agua/análisis , PlásticosRESUMEN
Importance: The lack of family-friendly policies continues to contribute to the underrepresentation and attrition of surgical trainees. Women in surgery face unique challenges in balancing surgical education with personal and family needs. Observations: The Association of Women Surgeons is committed to supporting surgical families and developing equitable family-friendly guidelines. Herein we detail recommendations for adequate paid parental leave, access to childcare, breastfeeding support, and insurance coverage of fertility preservation and assisted reproductive technology. Conclusions and Relevance: The specific recommendations outlined in this document form the basis of a comprehensive initiative for supporting surgical families.
Asunto(s)
Internado y Residencia , Cirujanos , Humanos , Femenino , Becas , Permiso Parental , Educación de Postgrado en MedicinaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Phyllodes tumor (PT) is a rare fibroepithelial lesion of the breast with variable malignant potential. Black women have a higher incidence of a related benign tumor, fibroadenoma, but there are limited epidemiological data on PT. The aim of our study was to evaluate race-related differences in the clinicopathologic features and outcomes of PT. METHODS: Our institutional pathology database was queried for breast specimen reports from 01/2009 to 10/2019 to identify patients with a pathologic diagnosis of PT. Chart review and detailed slide review were performed to obtain clinical and histopathologic variables, respectively. RESULTS: Among twelve patients, two had malignant PT, three had borderline PT, and seven had benign PT. All patients with malignant and borderline PT were black, compared with 29% of those with benign PT. There were no apparent race-related differences in specific histopathologic features among black vs. non-black women with benign PT. Malignant and borderline PT were relatively larger than benign PT, with mean tumor sizes of 9.0 cm (standard deviation [SD] 4.7 cm), 12.2 cm (SD 9.4 cm), and 5.4 cm (SD 5.8 cm), respectively. Two women had a local recurrence, both of whom were black. DISCUSSION: In this single-institution retrospective study, we observed disproportionate rates of aggressive histopathologic features and disparate outcomes among black women with PT. A multi-institutional PT registry would facilitate improved knowledge about race-related differences in the presentation and outcomes of this rare tumor.