Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission.

To aid understanding of the effect of antiviral treatment on population-level influenza transmission, we used a novel pharmacokinetic-viral kinetic transmission model to test the correlation between nasal viral load and infectiousness, and to evaluate the impact that timing of treatment with the antivirals oseltamivir or baloxavir has on influenza transmission. The model was run under three candidate profiles whereby infectiousness was assumed to be proportional to viral titer on a natural-scale, log-scale, or dose-response model. Viral kinetic profiles in the presence and absence of antiviral treatment were compared for each individual (N = 1000 simulated individuals); subsequently, viral transmission mitigation was calculated. The predicted transmission mitigation was greater with earlier administration of antiviral treatment, and with baloxavir versus oseltamivir. When treatment was initiated 12-24 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation was 39.9-56.4% for baloxavir and 26.6-38.3% for oseltamivir depending on the infectiousness profile. When treatment was initiated 36-48 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation decreased to 0.8-28.3% for baloxavir and 0.8-19.9% for oseltamivir. Model estimates were compared with clinical data from the BLOCKSTONE post-exposure prophylaxis study, which indicated the log-scale model for infectiousness best fit the observed data and that baloxavir affords greater reductions in secondary case rates compared with neuraminidase inhibitors. These findings suggest a role for baloxavir and oseltamivir in reducing influenza transmission when treatment is initiated within 48 hours of symptom onset in the index patient.

A Pharmacokinetics-Time to Alleviation of Symptoms Model to Support Extrapolation of Baloxavir Marboxil Clinical Efficacy in Different Ethnic Groups with Influenza A or B.

Baloxavir marboxil, the prodrug of baloxavir acid, is an anti-influenza antiviral. Here, a pharmacokinetics-time to alleviation of symptoms (PK-TTAS) model was developed and used to (I) characterize the PK-TTAS relationship, (II) quantify the impact of covariates, and (III) predict TTAS in different ethnic groups. Data from 1781 otherwise-healthy (OwH) or high-risk (HR) patients included in phase II (JapicCTI-153090) and III studies (NCT02954354 and NCT02949011) were used; patients received either placebo or oral baloxavir marboxil. The natural distribution of TTAS in placebo-treated patients was modeled, then TTAS data from the baloxavir marboxil arms were added to model the impact of baloxavir acid concentration on TTAS. PK parameters estimated by a population PK model and informed by phase I data (NCT03959332 and KCT0003535) were included to simulate TTAS in Chinese and South Korean patients. Composite symptom score at baseline (TSS0), ethnicity, sex, and patient type (OwH or HR) significantly impacted the natural TTAS distribution. TTAS reduced with increasing baloxavir acid concentrations. Compared with placebo, high and low baloxavir acid exposures (AUC0-inf 5.13-16.65 and 0.72-5.13 µg.hr/mL, respectively) significantly reduced TTAS; no covariates affected the drug effect on TTAS. Simulated TTAS was similar between OwH or HR Chinese, South Korean, and other Asian patients, with median reductions from placebo between 18.3-18.8 hours and 21.2-22.0 hours in OwH and HR patients, respectively, assuming TSS0 > 10. Ethnicity (Asian vs. non-Asian) did not significantly impact the drug effect on TTAS; predicted TTAS was similar across different Asian populations. This suggests Chinese and South Korean patients may benefit from similar efficacy as other Asian patients.

Pharmacokinetics, safety, and simulated efficacy of an influenza treatment, baloxavir marboxil, in Chinese individuals.

Baloxavir marboxil is an endonuclease inhibitor indicated for the treatment of influenza in patients ≥12 years. No data exist for Chinese patients in global studies. This randomized, open-label, phase I study evaluated the pharmacokinetics (PK) and safety of baloxavir marboxil in healthy Chinese volunteers and was used to anticipate efficacy in Chinese patients. Patients received a single oral dose of baloxavir marboxil (40 or 80 mg [1:1]). Serial blood samples were collected predose and at various timepoints up to 14 days postdose. Baloxavir marboxil and acid plasma concentrations were determined by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. PK parameters of baloxavir acid were estimated by noncompartmental analysis. Adverse events (AEs) were recorded. Time to alleviation of symptoms (TTAS) was simulated for otherwise healthy (OwH) and high-risk (HR) Chinese and Asian patients. Thirty-two male patients received baloxavir marboxil. Baloxavir acid plasma concentration peaked 4 h postdose. Mean maximum concentration (Cmax ) was 107.6 and 206.9 ng/ml, and mean area under the plasma concentration-time curve from zero to infinity (AUC0-inf ) was 6955 and 9643 ng·h/ml in the 40 and 80 mg cohorts, respectively. AEs were mild and transient; no new safety signals were identified. Simulated median TTAS for OwH and HR Chinese patients agreed with simulated values in Asian patients. PK parameters were similar to Asian populations in other studies. The globally adopted baloxavir marboxil dosing strategy was consistent with the established safety profile of baloxavir marboxil in this population. Simulated efficacy indicated Chinese patients could benefit from similar efficacy to Asian patients.

Dosing regimen optimisation for oseltamivir in immunocompromised paediatric patients with influenza: Extrapolation of efficacy.

AIMS: To optimise the dosing regimen of oseltamivir for immunocompromised (IC) paediatric patients (<18 years) with influenza, we used an extrapolation approach alongside clinical data. METHODS: Efficacy was extrapolated from adult IC patients to paediatric IC patients by leveraging existing efficacy, safety, pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD), and disease-progression models of oseltamivir and oseltamivir carboxylate (OC). Data of IC paediatric patients from two studies (NV25719 and NV20234) were included in the population PK (n = 30), PK/PD analysis (n = 22) and disease modelling approach (n = 36). Simulations were performed to identify the optimal dosing regimen. RESULTS: Clearance of oseltamivir (CL) and OC (CLM ) were similar in IC and otherwise-healthy (OwH) patients <10 years, but decreased by 44.4% (95% CI: 26.8-62.0) and 49.1% (95% CI: 34.5-63.8), respectively, in IC patients aged 10-17 years versus OwH patients. There were no notable exposure-response relationships for any of the virologic PD analyses. Thus, no additional benefit was seen with oseltamivir carboxylate exposures higher than achieved with the conventional dose (75 mg twice daily, age- and weight-adjusted for children <13 years). The disease model illustrated that doses above the conventional oseltamivir dose had limited impact on viral kinetics in IC paediatric patients and a prolonged treatment duration of 10 days was favoured to limit potential viral rebound. CONCLUSION: An oseltamivir dosage recommendation (conventional dose, twice daily for 10 days) was established in IC paediatric patients with influenza, based on extrapolation of efficacy from IC adults, leveraging population PK, PK/PD, and disease modelling, whilst taking resistance and safety data into account.