Landscape-scale forest cover drives the predictability of forest regeneration across the Neotropics.

Abandonment of agricultural lands promotes the global expansion of secondary forests, which are critical for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services. Such roles largely depend, however, on two essential successional attributes, trajectory and recovery rate, which are expected to depend on landscape-scale forest cover in nonlinear ways. Using a multi-scale approach and a large vegetation dataset (843 plots, 3511 tree species) from 22 secondary forest chronosequences distributed across the Neotropics, we show that successional trajectories of woody plant species richness, stem density and basal area are less predictable in landscapes (4 km radius) with intermediate (40-60%) forest cover than in landscapes with high (greater than 60%) forest cover. This supports theory suggesting that high spatial and environmental heterogeneity in intermediately deforested landscapes can increase the variation of key ecological factors for forest recovery (e.g. seed dispersal and seedling recruitment), increasing the uncertainty of successional trajectories. Regarding the recovery rate, only species richness is positively related to forest cover in relatively small (1 km radius) landscapes. These findings highlight the importance of using a spatially explicit landscape approach in restoration initiatives and suggest that these initiatives can be more effective in more forested landscapes, especially if implemented across spatial extents of 1-4 km radius.

Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico.

There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through underground drainage in predominantly karstic soils. Hammocks are biologically important because of their high diversity and restricted distribution. This study proposes a strategy to assess resilience of this coastal ecosystem when high-precision data are scarce. Approaches and methods used to derive ecological resilience maps of hammocks are described and assessed. Resilience models were built by incorporating and weighting appropriate indicators of persistence to assess hammocks resilience against flooding due to climate change at "Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve", in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. According to the analysis, 25% of the study area is highly resilient (hot spots), whereas 51% has low resilience (cold spots). The most significant hot spot clusters of resilience were located in areas distant to the coastal zone, with indirect tidal influence, and consisted mostly of hammocks surrounded by basin mangrove and floodplain forest. This study revealed that multi-criteria analysis and the use of GIS for qualitative, semi-quantitative and statistical spatial analyses constitute a powerful tool to develop ecological resilience maps of coastal ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, even when high-precision data are not available. This method can be applied in other sites to help develop resilience analyses and decision-making processes for management and conservation of coastal areas worldwide.

An integrated pan-tropical biomass map using multiple reference datasets.

We combined two existing datasets of vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB) (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 2011, 9899; Nature Climate Change, 2, 2012, 182) into a pan-tropical AGB map at 1-km resolution using an independent reference dataset of field observations and locally calibrated high-resolution biomass maps, harmonized and upscaled to 14 477 1-km AGB estimates. Our data fusion approach uses bias removal and weighted linear averaging that incorporates and spatializes the biomass patterns indicated by the reference data. The method was applied independently in areas (strata) with homogeneous error patterns of the input (Saatchi and Baccini) maps, which were estimated from the reference data and additional covariates. Based on the fused map, we estimated AGB stock for the tropics (23.4 N-23.4 S) of 375 Pg dry mass, 9-18% lower than the Saatchi and Baccini estimates. The fused map also showed differing spatial patterns of AGB over large areas, with higher AGB density in the dense forest areas in the Congo basin, Eastern Amazon and South-East Asia, and lower values in Central America and in most dry vegetation areas of Africa than either of the input maps. The validation exercise, based on 2118 estimates from the reference dataset not used in the fusion process, showed that the fused map had a RMSE 15-21% lower than that of the input maps and, most importantly, nearly unbiased estimates (mean bias 5 Mg dry mass ha(-1) vs. 21 and 28 Mg ha(-1) for the input maps). The fusion method can be applied at any scale including the policy-relevant national level, where it can provide improved biomass estimates by integrating existing regional biomass maps as input maps and additional, country-specific reference datasets.

[Seed germination and key to seedling identification for six native tree species of wetlands from Southeast Mexico]. / Germinación de semillas y clave para la identificación de plántulas de seis especies arbóreas nativas de humedales del sureste de México.

Wetland tree species are of importance for economic and restoration purposes. We describe the germination process and seedling morphology of six arboreal native species typical of Southeastern Mexico: Annona glabra, Ceiba pentandra, Pachira aquatica, Haematoxylum campechianum, Coccoloba barbadensis and Crataeva tapia. A total of 300 seeds per species were planted in a mixture of sand, cocoa plant husk and black soil (1:1:1), and maintained in a tree nursery with 30% artificial shade, from February to November of 2007. We carried out the morphological characterization, and elaborated a key to seedlings based on: 1) germination type 2) seedling axis and 3) leaf elements. P. aquatica has cryptocotylar hypogeal germination, the others have phanerocotylar epigeal germination. Germination rates were high (>86%), except for C. barbadensis (69%).

Fenología reproductiva de las especies arbóreas del bosque tropical de Tenosique, Tabasco, México

Reproductive phenology of tree species in the Tenosique tropical forest, Tabasco, Mexico. Between August 2003 and August 2005 we registered the flowering and fruiting of 75 tree species (341 individual trees) in a tropical rain forest at Tenosique, Tabasco, Mexico. Monthly we checked five transects (500 m long; 5 m wide). To test the homogeneity of flowering and fruiting during the year, and between adjacent months, we applied a X² test. The flowering was bimodal, with a highest peak in March and April, coinciding with the dry season, and a second lower peak in July when precipitation is relatively low. The highest number of fruiting tree species occur between May and July, with its peak in May. Each of the most common botanical families showed a particular phenological pattern. Monthly rainfall and the number of species flowering or fruiting were not significantly correlated. This means that trees are flowering and fruiting all year long, with seasonal increases of both phenological phenomena in the dryer periods. We conclude that phenological patterns vary between individuals and between years and are not seasonally correlated. The data we generated are relevant to program the best periods of seed collections according to individual or groups of species, as part of forest management and conservation practices. Rev. Biol. Trop. 56 (2): 657-673. Epub 2008 June 30.

La fenología de 341 árboles que corresponden a 75 especies fue estudiada en las montañas de Tenosique, Tabasco, entre agosto del 2003 hasta agosto del 2005. Para ello, se establecieron cinco transectos de 500 m de largo por cinco metros de ancho, los cuales se evaluaron mensualmente. Si alguno de los individuos de las especies tenía flores o frutos, la especie como un todo fue considerada en floración o fructificación en ese mes. Se aplicaron pruebas de homogeneidad de ji-cuadrada para evaluar la homogeneidad de la floración y fructificación a lo largo del año y por periodos bimensuales. La floración fue bimodal, con un pico de mayor floración de marzo a abril que corresponde a menor precipitación. En julio se presentó un segundo pico de floración con 21 especies, correspondiendo igualmente a un decremento de la precipitación. El mayor número de especies con fruto se presentó entre mayo y junio, el cual no fue significativo estadísticamente. También se analizan los patrones fenológicos de las familias con mayor número de especies, los cuales difirieron entre sí. No se encontró relación entre el número de especies floreciendo o fructificando y la precipitación promedio mensual. Se encontraron picos fenológicos poco marcados debido a que en la zona de estudio la estacionalidad es poco marcada. Los patrones fenológicos varían dentro de una especie, entre años y entre localidades. Los datos que se aportan en el presente trabajo son relevantes para definir los periodos apropiados de recolecta de semillas para la realización de prácticas de manejo y conservación.

[Reproductive phenology of tree species in the Tenosique tropical forest, Tabasco, Mexico]. / Fenología reproductiva de las especies arbóreas del bosque tropical de Tenosique, Tabasco, México.

Between August 2003 and August 2005 we registered the flowering and fruiting of 75 tree species (341 individual trees) in a tropical rain forest at Tenosique, Tabasco, Mexico. Monthly we checked five transects (500 m long; 5 m wide). To test the homogeneity of flowering and fruiting during the year, and between adjacent months, we applied a chi2 test. The flowering was bimodal, with a highest peak in March and April, coinciding with the dry season, and a second lower peak in July when precipitation is relatively low. The highest number of fruiting tree species occur between May and July, with its peak in May. Each of the most common botanical families showed a particular phenological pattern. Monthly rainfall and the number of species flowering or fruiting were not significantly correlated. This means that trees are flowering and fruiting all year long, with seasonal increases of both phenological phenomena in the dryer periods. We conclude that phenological patterns vary between individuals and between years and are not seasonally correlated. The data we generated are relevant to program the best periods of seed collections according to individual or groups of species, as part of forest management and conservation practices.